Chaos Rankings

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Week 13 Top 30

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.0Ohio State10.0
20.974674Boise State20.0447
120.827776West Virginia4-0.052715
130.826407Virginia Tech160.03254
140.798161Notre Dame10-0.039884
200.761887Wake Forest240.029773
210.756916Texas A&M270.040011
220.753458Boston College17-0.035971
270.71406Georgia Tech21-0.045524

Week 13 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1100.181245San Diego State107-0.031411
1110.175722North Texas106-0.042488
1140.094914Eastern Michigan114-0.020112
1160.046859Florida International116-0.028984
1170.04164Utah State117-0.025473

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Week 12 Top 24

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.0Ohio State10.0
20.929973Boise State30.020174
40.880491West Virginia60.016465
100.838045Notre Dame130.01991
160.793867Virginia Tech190.026012
170.78943Boston College220.03793
210.759585Georgia Tech240.033623
240.732114Wake Forest20-0.028956

Week 12 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1100.186725North Carolina1110.043569
1140.115027Eastern Michigan114-0.015656
1160.075843Florida International116-0.012386
1170.067113Utah State117-0.002084

Friday, November 17, 2006

January Bowl Game

You know, I was just thinking about how everyone is always striving to get a January bowl game. That doesn't mean what it used to with the International Bowl on the 6th and the GMAC on the 7th. And it's not like we need another bowl. But I want to start my own bowl. This shouldn't be news to anyone who remembers my ill-fated Crap-hole Bowl, played in Detroit, and featuring the two worst teams that year. Look at it this way, it probably guarantees that someone will get their first win of the season, and that's a pretty nice holiday gift. Or there's my less-ill-fated Beltway Bowl, based in Washington DC. Fedex Field is pretty nice, right? That would probably feature a Big East vs ACC (at least based on georgraphical proximity). Are you a venture capitalist? Call me - we'll do lunch. But my new idea is for a bowl literally called the January Bowl. I don't even care who plays in it or where it's located. I just like the idea of having a bowl game that, for comedic effect would be played in December, named after the thing that all teams aspire to. Or hell, call it the National Champion Bowl. I'm telling you right now, get the National car rental people on the phone with the people at Champion athletic wear. That's ratings gold right there. Sometimes I wonder why I didn't get into marketing. Then I remember that I have a soul and that I'm not a very good liar.

January Bowl, National Champion Bowl, Crap-hole Bowl, and Beltway Bowl names and concepts are intellectual property of Adam Bever. Unauthorized use is subject to a stern talking to in an engineer's attempt at legalese.

Dropping like flies

What a week... Michigan's legendary coach passed away today. UNC announced their new coach. North Texas fired theirs but was then coerced by a booster to rename the athletic facility his donation had paid for in the departing coach's honor. FIU's coach resigned. FSU's OC resigned without telling any of his players, making his announcement appear cowardly rather than heroic. Instead of taking the fall for dear old dad, something akin to taking a bullet from a sniper's rifle trained on the President, he wrestled the gun away from the sniper, didn't consult his peers to decide what to do with the gun and assailant, and then shot himself in the foot with the gun. A simple "I know you love my dad as a coach, so I'm quitting so he can carry on as your coach" to the guys before telling the whole world would have been sufficient Jeff. Maybe that was too much to ask. Speaking of too much to ask, with FIU's coach leaving, I still can't help but think about how it is that Coker still has his job. How is it that the butt of every Div I-A football joke (that doesn't involve Temple or Duke) is taking this more seriously than a supposedely top-rung program in a BCS conference? In case you've forgotten, FIU dismissed players and suspended severla indefinitely, some of which still haven't been back on the field. Meanwhile, at Miami, only one player has a suspension longer than 1 game, and he's suiting up this weekend. Not a single Miami dismissal despite the helmet-swinging and cleat-stomping. Oh, and Coker gets to keep his job (so far). Who the hell is Coker? Sure, he won a National Title, but he did it with someone else's recruits. How's his program with his own recruits and his own schemes doing these days? I hope they don't try to blam the rest of their crummy season on Pata's death. I mean, I feel bad for the players to lose a teammate, but your year was in the crapper long before that happened, so don't you dare use that as a crutch. All I'm trying to say is that FIU and the Sunbelt has much more class and integrity than Miami and the ACC. Kudos to them for doing the right thing without any prodding and shame on the 'Canes and the ACC for still not doing the right thing. Sticking to your guns (pun definitely intended) is great, but when you're wrong, being stubborn won't make you any less wrong. Okay, I think I'm done with my soapbox. Not to be outdone by all the coaching hooplah, JoePa is going to at least be at Beaver Stadium this weekend, even if it's not on the sidelines, and doctor's orders be damned. Leading scorer Ian Johnson is out of the hospital after being treated for a collapsed lung. I wouldn't expect him to play this weekend, but you never know. He's still got two years of eligibility, so if he stays healthy, he's still a strong contender for a Heisman in coming years. Ainge is back in the Vols lineup as starter after missing last week with a sprained ankle. Colt McCoy's x-rays came back negative and that's the last I've heard about his hand. Should be an interesting weekend. Hopefully the loss of Bo will fuel the Wolverines to victory over the hated Buckeyes.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Conference Breakdown

With all the teams breaking down last week, I thought it might be time for a little overview of the conference standings, who still has a shot at a BCS game, and who shot themselves in the collective foot.

ACC: If you told me Week 1 that Miami and FSU would be entering Week 12 and still looking to get bowl eligible, I would have laughed in your face. But such is the case. Miami lost to a Maryland team I claimed weeks ago was better than their record indicated. Perhaps now their record better indicates their abilities. Meanwhile, people are still struggling to find room on the Wake Forest bandwagon, despite a belief that they're probably not as good as their record indicates. Wake is only one quarter (when they imploded in the 4th against Clemson) away from being undefeated. I don't get it either, but it's a great story, so congrats to Jim Grobe. Good luck keeping him in Winston-Salem this time... UNC has reported that Butch Davis is their new coach. Sorry Miami. But hey, good news! You can have Bobby Bowden's former OC at FSU! Please. The last thing the ACC needs is another father-son rivalry. Hey, someone see if Tater Tot wants Al Groh's or Chuck Amato's job. Nice work taking one for the team (and family) Jeff, your resignation probably saved dad's job, for now. Wake and Maryland still control their own destinys, but both have a tough road (VT at home, at BC, respectively) before facing each other in a probable tiebreaker for Coastal supremacy. A BC win eliminates Maryland, and puts the Eagles in good position, but only if Wake loses both remaining games. Wide open race to see who faces GT for a trip to the Orange Bowl. Should be interesting to watch the next 2 weeks.

Big East: The other great story this year is Schiano's Rutgers squad. The only thing standing between them and not just their third bowl game ever, but a BCS game, is West Virginia. Everyone hyped up WVU as a championship game team, then they lost to Lousiville. So everyone hyped up Lousiville as a championship game team, then they lost to Rutgers. So everyone, kinda, didn't do anything. No one seems to think that an undefeated Rutgers teams deserves a shot at a national title. This is total bull (ask Auburn, Utah, Boise State, etc). They knocked off a team everyone thought was good enough to play for all the marbles, and if they beat WVU in Morgantown, I don't think you can deny them. Their defense is top 5 in nearly every category. They've beaten a ton of teams who are destined to go to a bowl game. And they're from a BCS conference, albeit the Big East, though it has proven itself more than a bunch of leftovers and sports a very deep roster of talented and tough teams. If Rutgers wins out, they're in.

Big Te(leve)n: Wisconsin might be the best team no one's considering. They proved themselves once again against perpetual underdog Iowa who had the Badgers on the ropes. They showed they could find creative ways to win against Penn State. I'm kind of sick of hearing about this collasal matchup. The Michigan-Ohio State game is big enough already without all the extra media hype of the last 8 weeks. I'll be rooting for Michigan, as will anyone desiring a rematch for the National Championship. Though the BCS computers favor Michigan, both polls favor OSU, and a close loss after a tough-fought game would probably be enough to keep them in the #2 spot in the BCS. As for the rest of the Big 10, they've been mostly medicore and inconsistent. Paterno proved why he'll be coaching long after Bobby Bowden retires, and thanks to FSU's lousy seasons, he's catching up with his nemesis.

Big XII: Is it just me, or does K-State's win over Texas remind anyone of their upset of Oklahoma in the conference championship game a few years ago. You know, the controversial one that "ended too late" to be considered in the final BCS standings, which resulted in OU facing, and ulitimately losing to LSU, and the AP crowning USC their champion instead, which evetually led them to pull their poll from the BCS formula. Dear Longhorn fans: shut up about losing because Colt McCoy was out. You still put up 42 points, which is usually enough to win. Unless your defense (which quarterbacks have little control to no over) gives up 45. They may not get to teh championship game this year (Nebraska will represent the North), but the Wildcats, gave OU hope if they can beat A&M and Texas can't. Despite their setbacks, Oklahoma is still having a great season. That's what a coach like Bob Stoops can do for you. Texas Tech is toiling away in mediocrity again despite putting up their typical superhuman pasing numbers. Baylor meanwhile looks to be taking steps in the right direction.

Pac 10: I'm glad USC has won a couple again so I can stop hearing about what Oregon State "did" to them. Um, hello, all they did was play a Trojans team that had been struggling for weeks, and happen to get lucky despite allowing USC to score the last 21 points of the game. "Did" is reserved for what Arkansas or UGA did to Auburn, or what Rutgers did to Louisville. USC is still in the title hunt however, and the SOS boost from Cal and Notre Dame may be enough to push them past other 1-loss teams, including the loser of the "epic" Michigan-OSU matchup. Cal is trying to play spoiler however and could find themselves in the Rose Bowl with a win over USC this weekend. What's up with the loss to Arizona? Let's all remember that Mike Stoops comes from the same coaching tradition as big brother Bob at OU (both Iowa DBs, coached together at Oklahoma). The Wildcats may not have had the success yet that they've hoped for, but it will come, and this may be a starting point. If nothing else, Arizona knows how to win games in November.

SEC: Hey Tuberville, your Under Armour cameo cracks me up. Didn't I warn you before about getting back to work? Well, congrats, your commerical cost your team a win against a terrible Georgia team (remember, they almost lost to Colorado). You still had an outside shot at an at-large bid, especially if Arkansas lost to Tennessee (they didn't). Oh well. Less whining, more coaching. Massive congrats to Houston Nutt's Razorbacks for bouncing back from their lashing by the Trojans to virtually lock up the SEC West spot (they'd have to lose to Mississippi State and LSU and LSU would have to beat Ole Miss). They'll face the Gators, who are already doing better under Utah-transplant Urban Meyer than they did under Ron Zook. I think it's funny that everyone makes such a big deal about Spurrier going back to the Swamp. As I understand it, only one of his recruits is still in school there, and it's not like Meyer runs the same offense or any of the same assistants are still hanging around. It was a good game though. Not to worry Gamecocks, Spurrier is a damn fine coach, and he'll have the team vying for an SEC title in no time. Has anyone else enjoyed watching Mark Richt's deer-caught-in-headlights look this season? Maybe it's just the Yellow Jacket in me. ;)

Other: Boise State is still undefeated, and will likely remain so, even with Ian Johnson quaestionable. BYU is quietly having a great season. Hawaii too, though somewhat less quietly. Behind the arm of Colt Brennan, they're in second place in the WAC, and gave BSU teh toughest run for their money until San Jose State. But the credit must also go to their O-line and receivers for making the plays work. Just like a great receiver is nothing when the ball doesn't get to him (ask Calvin Johnson), a great QB is nothing without adequate time in the pocket and guys who can catch the ball. Congratulations to Temple for winning a game this year. Now that they're conference-less, I expect them to move to Div. I-AA around the time Big Red and Western Kentucky join the Sun Belt. Also, Golden Domers can all shut up about a National Title. Too many things need to happen for you to get there. You need Rutgers, Arkansas, Florida, and possibly Wisconsin and West Virginia to lose. You also need to beat USC but have them not lose to Cal or UCLA. And on top of all that, you still lost to Michigan, so you either need Michigan to lose by 100 on Saturday, which is going to indirectly hurt you in your SOS. Or you need them to beat the Buckeyes bad enough to push them down 3 or 4 spots in the polls. Even with Texas, Cal, and Auburn getting knocked down last weekend, Notre Dame still needs too much help to get there.

End of year predictions: USC loses to Cal but beats Notre Dame. Unorthodox WVU defense proves too confusing for Rutgers, who loses in Morgantown, but thanks to oustanding defensive stats, maintains higher BCS rank to win Big East representation. Boise State runs the table. Arkansas loses to LSU after looking ahead to SEC title game, but beats Florida in overtime in Atlanta (no one does OT better than the Razorbacks). Wake loses to VT, but beats Maryland to face GT, who bring their A-game after an energizing nail-biter against arch-rival UGA and wins in convincing fashion. Healthy Ohio State proves too much for injury-prone Wolverines, but Michigan keeps the game respectable. Texas squeaks past Texas A&M, but loses to Nebraska in title game. Your ten BCS teams: Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Cal, Rutgers, Nebraska, Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Boise State, Notre Dame. I don't know about you, but I would love to see Rutgers against Boise State. And GT vs Nebraska would be an instant classic as rematch of the 1990 national title, too bad GT will go to Orange and Nebraska to the Fiesta. But pitted against each other opens the way for Rutgers/BSU. Oh well. USC gets in as an at-large while Cal goes to the Rose Bowl. Rose loses both Big 10 picks, and selects Notre Dame, who avoids a 3rd game with Tech in 12 months (they play in South Bend next season) by facing Cal. Boise State faces Nebraska. Rutgers plays GT. And Arkansas gets another chance for revenge against USC in the Sugar. Meanwhile, after 6 weeks, Michigan is healthy again and ready to face Ohio State for a national title. Wolverines take home the BCS crown. Buckeyes claim the AP crown behind Heisman winner Troy Smith.

Monday, November 13, 2006


How will my darkhorse Heisman pick make it to New York now? I have no doubt that Boise will continue to win behind Jared "Z! For Zabransky!" Zabranksy's leadership, but without a beast of a tailback, I would expect more close calls like they had against San Jose State. Maybe his recovery will actually vault him to new levels of performance and he'll start putting up 500 yards rushing and 5 or 6 TDs a game. Best wishes for a speedy recovery Ian.

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Week 11 Top 24

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.0Ohio State10.0
30.909799Boise State40.002189
60.864026West Virginia90.016212
130.818135Notre Dame140.019057
190.767854Virginia Tech220.025009
200.761071Wake Forest250.042591
220.7515Boston College240.022658
240.725961Georgia Tech270.015289

Week 11 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1100.166001Miami (Ohio)1110.019505
1110.143155North Carolina1140.012094
1140.130683Eastern Michigan113-0.00388
1160.088229Florida International115-0.013639
1170.069198Utah State1167.28E-4

Monday, November 06, 2006

Week 10 Top 30

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.0Ohio State10.0
40.907609Boise State50.029298
90.847814West Virginia3-0.055034
140.799078Notre Dame170.025069
180.766723Texas A&M11-0.041809
220.742845Virginia Tech240.031071
240.728841Boston College19-0.038004
250.718479Wake Forest280.03174
270.710671Georgia Tech290.029889

Week 10 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.146496Miami (Ohio)1110.015482
1130.134564Eastern Michigan1120.003762
1140.13106North Carolina1130.001477
1150.101869Florida International1160.028623
1160.068469Utah State115-0.008742

Sunday, November 05, 2006

Cowboys at Washington

No, not Oklahmo State or the Huskies... I absconded with a friend to Fedex Field today for the Dallas game, so the week 10 rankings will be up tomorrow night. Got to see all sorts of fireworks, including a flyover, safety, missed two-point conversion, blocked field goal attempt that led to a huge return that led to an untimed down that led to a winning field goal. Wacky. Anyway, rankings, tomorrow. Thanks for your patience.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

"Scarlet-zone" defense?

In what world did anyone think they would see this? Rutgers is the 3rd ranked defense in the nation in total points allowed, total yards allowed, points per game allowed, and yards per game allowed. They share the top 5 in each category with teams like LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, West Virginia, Louisville, TCU, and Virginia Tech.

While we're on the topic of stats, I'd also like to give a chiding to Reggie Ball for coughing up a fumble to open the Miami game. If not for that, GT would be tied for the team with the fewest turnovers this year with BYU, Michigan, and Notre Dame.

"After further review..."

"...the ruling on the field is overturned. Failure to correctly typecast an int to a double, coder, number 1. 10 pushups. Penalty will be enforced during workout Thursday."

Like the zebra said, I forgot to cast into a double when I divided an int by another int, so all my values were either 0 or 1 rather than a range of values between 0 and 1. Whoops. Much of it was disguised by the fact that I use two separate methods for determining rank and then average the scores. So what you've basically been looking at is a difference-only rating, which is why Clemson didn't budge and USC did. Their differential is huge. Which is why I also use a ratio-based method to counteract that aspect. That should all be fixed up now. I thought something seemed wonky with the huge gap in score between undefeated teams and teams that have lost, but initially assumed that it would even itself out as the season went on and SOS began to take more of an effect. Oh well. It's fixed now. Game on!

I corrected the Week 9 rankings shown below to reflect the correct rankings after fixing my typecast mistake.

Additional self-imposed punishment:
"I am not a good coder."
"I am not a good coder."
"I am not a good coder."
"I am not a good coder."
"I am not a good coder."
"I am not a good coder."
"I am not a good coder."
"I am not a good coder."
"I am not a good coder."
"I am not a good coder."
That's a lot leasier to do than writing on a blackboard... Thanks cut-n-paste! ;)