Chaos Rankings

Monday, November 24, 2008

Crossing the Pond

My wife and I are heading to London for Thanksiving, so there will be no rankings updates next week until Monday at the earliest. Sadly, I don't expect to be able to watch many American football games in the UK, but we are staying with friends near the Arsenal stadium, so maybe there's some (rest-of-the-world) football in store this week. Have a safe and happy holiday with your families, friends, pets, selves, or whoever else you choose to spend your Turkey Day with. Oh yes, and TO HELL WITH GEORGIA!

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Week 13 Top 30

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Utah (12-0)50.027047
20.999699Florida (10-1)40.026104
30.995251Penn State (11-1)60.029491
40.994186Oklahoma (10-1)80.033734
50.979003Boise State (11-0)3-0.002624
60.976928Alabama (11-0)2-0.010024
70.957872Ball State (11-0)90.008179
80.954559USC (9-1)7-0.010075
90.93774TCU (10-2)110.031446
100.931148Texas (10-1)10-0.010987
110.923985Texas Tech (10-1)1-0.076014
120.874979Ohio State (10-2)130.026092
130.836298Missouri (9-2)14-0.010875
140.835573Oklahoma State (9-2)15-0.010159
150.820875BYU (10-2)12-0.070711
160.813122Tulsa (9-2)180.030654
170.804114Georgia (9-2)16-0.010326
180.766769Oregon State (8-3)200.021392
190.763216Cinncinati (9-2)220.023842
200.748928Western Michigan (9-2)19-0.011551
210.74577Florida State (8-3)280.040393
220.730755Iowa (8-4)320.047492
230.726844Oregon (8-3)23-0.010686
240.725986Boston College (8-3)270.01824
250.722268Georgia Tech (8-3)300.028851
260.717566Michigan State (9-3)17-0.067485
270.704622Rice (8-3)330.021552
280.700936West Virginia (7-3)360.032554
290.694972Northwestern (9-3)340.021162
300.684136Central Michigan (8-3)24-0.047901

Week 13 Bottom 10

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.217063Western Kentucky (2-9)113-0.009232
1120.210841Iowa State (2-10)110-0.036407
1130.205008Utah State (2-9)114-0.00909
1140.177636Miami (Ohio) (2-9)111-0.054932
1150.13322San Diego State (2-10)1180.050892
1160.107043Idaho (2-10)115-0.047076
1170.086231SMU (1-10)116-0.008812
1180.054761North Texas (1-10)117-0.03935
1190.030706Washington State (2-10)1200.030706
1200.000000Washington (0-11)119-0.033727

The Thing About NCAA Games On Sunday...

...Is that it makes you all have to wait for your rankings fix! Week 13 rankings will be posted following the conclusion of UConn@USF game tonight (or possibly early tomorrow). But here's a sneak preview: it looks like Florida will stay in front of all the other 1-loss teams and probably even jump some undefeated teams who had byes this week or eked out wins over lesser competition.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Week 12 Top 30

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Texas Tech (10-0)10.000000
20.986952Alabama (11-0)40.032583
30.981627Boise State (10-0)30.026702
40.973594Florida (9-1)90.052853
50.972952Utah (11-0)60.035039
60.96576Penn State (10-1)70.029084
70.964634USC (9-1)50.026682
80.960451Oklahoma (9-1)20.003829
90.949693Ball State (10-0)80.020203
100.942135Texas (10-1)100.038626
110.906293TCU (9-2)110.006323
120.891587BYU (10-1)120.033883
130.848887Ohio State (9-2)140.031505
140.847174Missouri (9-2)150.036086
150.845732Oklahoma State (9-2)160.03795
160.81444Georgia (9-2)170.035467
170.785052Michigan State (9-2)190.010159
180.782468Tulsa (8-2)13-0.061828
190.760479Western Michigan (9-2)220.035606
200.745377Oregon State (7-3)260.053929
210.74374Air Force (8-3)18-0.034904
220.739374Cinncinati (8-2)240.04117
230.737531Oregon (8-3)270.046108
240.732038Central Michigan (8-2)280.044714
250.725121Pittsburgh (7-2)230.011995
260.712751North Carolina (7-3)20-0.034807
270.707745Boston College (7-3)370.052817
280.705377Florida State (7-3)21-0.03583
290.698913Connecticut (7-3)420.060791
300.693417Georgia Tech (7-3)300.012306

Week 12 Bottom 10

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.232569Miami (Ohio) (2-8)1110.009381
1120.228813Syracuse (2-8)106-0.012582
1130.226296Western Kentucky (2-9)1120.003646
1140.214099Utah State (2-9)1140.013267
1150.15412Idaho (2-9)1150.007056
1160.095043SMU (1-10)116-0.013648
1170.094112North Texas (1-9)1180.035198
1180.082328San Diego State (1-10)1170.002124
1190.033727Washington (0-10)1190.009229
1200.000000Washington State (1-10)1200.000000

Monday, November 10, 2008

Numbers out the ying-yang

After reviewing the Week 10 Top 24, a loyal reader had the following question:
"What is making Penn State appear higher than Texas Tech, and a one-loss TCU higher than undefeated Alabama?"

Allow me to shed some light on the subject (hopefully). Let's first review how the formula works. Basically, I take the record, total points, yards, and turnovers for each team in every game played so far. Then I calculate two subscores using the difference between a team's and their opponents' numbers and a ratio. I average these two values together to get a final subscore. To determine the SOS for a team, I take 67% of each opponent's subscore and 33% of each opponent's opponent's subscore. Going back to the subscores, the record gets a 50% weighting, then 35% goes to the statisical subscores (each stat is weighted roughly the same), and then 15% goes to SOS. This yields a ratio score and a difference score. I average these two and quantize between 1 and 0 to get the final score you see posted on the site. So to figure out why a team has a higher score than another team, you have to look at the individual components, both for difference and ratio. The "per game" numbers aren't really used in the calculations, but provide a clearer barometer of a team's performance than totals when viewing the numbers prior to season's end. The efficiencies shown below (also not directly used in any calculations) are based on scoring 70 points for every 80 yards of offense. It's an arbitrary adjustment, I realize, but a telling statistic nonetheless.

Offense
Penn State
Texas Tech
TCU
Alabama
Points376423366290
Rank73926
PPG41.774736.632.22
Rank831733
Yards4138503440853321
Rank921349
YPG459.77559.33408.5369
Rank1222961
Tos Committed8121112
Rank5322425
TO/G0.881.331.11.33
Rank4281022
Defense
Penn State
Texas Tech
TCU
Alabama
Points100202108110
Rank45357
PPG11.1122.4410.812.22
Rank44736
Yards2393314621452263
Rank126647
YPG265.88349.55214.5251.44
Rank65624
Tos Forced18222616
Rank4313259
TO/G22.442.61.77
Rank4720967
Difference
Penn State
Texas Tech
TCU
Alabama
Points276221258180
PPG30.6624.5625.820
Yards1745188819401058
YPG193.89209.78194117.56
TO Margin1010154
TO/G1.121.111.50.44
Ratio
Penn State
Texas Tech
TCU
Alabama
Points3.762.0943.3892.636
PPG3.7572.0943.3892.637
Yards1.7291.6001.9041.468
YPG1.7291.6001.9041.468
TO Margin2.251.8332.3641.333
TO/G2.2731.8352.3641.331
Misc
Penn State
Texas Tech
TCU
Alabama
SOS Score0.34070.28320.25810.4657
Rank889210156
Off. Effic.103.84%96.03%102.39%99.79%
Rank7221117
Def. Effic.47.75%73.38%57.54%55.55%
Rank438118

Confused yet? Okay, let's start with Penn State and Texas Tech. The difference components are roughly the same, but Penn State leads in every ratio component, and has a higher SOS value. I know, I know, the Big 12 is "better" than the Big Te(leve)n, but look at who each team has played through week 10. I have no doubt that TTU's final SOS will be higher than PSU, but up until that point, PSU does have the slight edge. More importantly, look at the efficiencies: Penn State scores more often with less yardage and allows fewer points and fewer yards, and they almost never turned the ball over.
As for TCU over Alabama, the Horned Frogs have superior numbers in every offensive and defensive category. Alabama's got SOS cornered and of course has a better record, but it's the massive discrepancy in the statistical categories that was keeping TCU just ahead of an undefeated 'Bama team.

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Week 11 Top 30

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Texas Tech (10-0)20.026738
20.956622Oklahoma (9-1)60.041147
30.954924Boise State (9-0)50.034686
40.954369Alabama (10-0)40.011629
50.937952USC (8-1)80.033828
60.937912Utah (10-0)70.022505
70.936675Penn State (9-1)1-0.063324
80.929489Ball State (9-0)100.038874
90.920741Florida (8-1)90.024967
100.903508Texas (9-1)110.02553
110.899969TCU (9-2)3-0.054264
120.857703BYU (9-1)140.032477
130.844297Tulsa (8-1)13-0.005626
140.817381Ohio State (8-2)160.048969
150.811088Missouri (8-2)150.032403
160.807781Oklahoma State (8-2)12-0.066665
170.778973Georgia (8-2)180.033962
180.778645Air Force (8-2)200.044048
190.774892Michigan State (9-2)170.025426
200.747558North Carolina (7-2)240.04699
210.741207Florida State (7-2)230.038962
220.724873Western Michigan (8-2)270.035338
230.713126Pittsburgh (7-2)330.062624
240.698203Cinncinati (7-2)320.043222
250.696969Arizona (6-3)340.051021
260.691447Oregon State (6-3)360.055373
270.691422Oregon (7-3)310.032622
280.687324Central Michigan (7-2)280.004872
290.683989California (6-3)21-0.050249
300.681111Georgia Tech (7-3)22-0.049969

Week 11 Bottom 10

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.223187Miami (Ohio) (2-7)109-0.012375
1120.222649Western Kentucky (2-8)110-0.004149
1130.204228UAB (2-7)1140.030306
1140.200831Utah State (2-8)111-0.013253
1150.147064Idaho (2-8)1150.033142
1160.108692SMU (1-9)1160.010113
1170.080203San Diego State (1-9)117-0.002898
1180.058913North Texas (1-9)118-0.00456
1190.024497Washington (0-9)1190.003248
1200.000000Washington State (1-9)1200.000000

Monday, November 03, 2008

Week 10 Top 24

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Penn State (9-0)10.000000
20.973261Texas Tech (9-0)30.037676
30.954234TCU (9-1)40.036851
40.94274Alabama (9-0)60.04209
50.920238Boise State (8-0)100.048112
60.915474Oklahoma (8-1)90.040274
70.915406Utah (9-0)70.024752
80.904124USC (7-1)110.043145
90.895773Florida (7-1)120.049601
100.890614Ball State (8-0)80.002161
110.877977Texas (8-1)2-0.06483
120.874447Oklahoma State (8-1)130.039667
130.849923Tulsa (8-1)5-0.064691
140.825226BYU (8-1)150.027163
150.778684Missouri (7-2)190.020979
160.768412Ohio State (7-2)170.002006
170.749466Michigan State (8-2)200.027757
180.74501Georgia (7-2)14-0.069774
190.739583Minnesota (7-2)16-0.044598
200.734596Air Force (7-2)250.033734
210.734238California (6-2)220.029765
220.731081Georgia Tech (7-2)270.033045
230.702244Florida State (6-2)18-0.056458
240.700568North Carolina (6-2)260.001835

Week 10 Bottom 10

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.214085Utah State (2-7)1140.056555
1120.213722Eastern Michigan (2-8)110-0.035378
1130.211885Michigan (2-7)108-0.040466
1140.173921UAB (2-7)109-0.076235
1150.113922Idaho (2-8)115-0.025113
1160.098579SMU (1-8)117-2.46E-4
1170.083102San Diego State (1-8)116-0.043166
1180.063474North Texas (1-8)1200.063474
1190.021249Washington (0-8)118-0.048068
1200.000000Washington State (1-8)119-0.052782

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Tech 31, F$U 28! Whooo!!!

For the first time since F$U joined the ACC following Georgia Tech's 1990 National Championship season, GT beat the Criminoles. What used to be a great rivalry (if you can call a 12-game losing streak a rivalry) fell by the wayside with ACC expansion, but this year, my beloved Jackets finally got the monkey off their backs. And I was there to witness it! As such, this week's rankings will be posted tomorrow, and there should be some interesting moving and shaking going on with PSU on a bye, Texas losing to Texas Tech,and U(sic)GA getting demolished by the Gators at the World's Largest Outdoor [REDACTED] Party in Jacksonville.