Chaos Rankings

Monday, September 25, 2006

(Five) Reader Poll

Okay kids, time to put democracy to work! Do you prefer the current format of seeing just the top 25 and bottom 10, or would you prefer to see the entire 119 Div IA teams all at once on the same list? You've got until probably next Sunday to vote and the Week 5 results will be displayed based on your input. How do you vote? Just leave a comment here indicated your preference, or whatever other wacky organization you might desire. Of course, as with all good democracys, the lead executive (me) has a veto power if I think your idea is exceptionally dumb.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Week 4 Top 25

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.0Michigan30.074005
20.996274West Virginia20.064348
30.992634Louisville40.081626
40.9867Missouri80.101728
50.986588Ohio State60.094947
60.984058Florida50.083376
70.974013Boise State70.086546
80.964548Auburn110.091543
90.962403Virginia Tech90.085813
100.959147Texas A&M150.098535
110.959104Rutgers130.094236
120.951209USC1-0.04879
130.942248Houston120.076061
140.926681Iowa220.090146
150.926031Wake Forest240.093266
160.916468Georgia160.056261
170.897259Purdue280.087571
180.879727TCU140.015983
190.867844Oregon190.025181
200.587998LSU300.107203
210.551974Nebraska320.1064
220.522018Oklahoma400.118459
230.520437Texas330.075499
240.512349Clemson310.06432
250.50946Texas Tech390.105213

Week 4 Bottom 10

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1100.135591Idaho96-0.072777
1110.127145Miami (Ohio)1130.019702
1120.111344Florida International109-0.031131
1130.101373Colorado1170.036946
1140.091657Rice108-0.053731
1150.08354Stanford111-0.026673
1160.062146Eastern Michigan116-0.022804
1170.016263Florida Atlantic115-0.070232
1180.015897Temple1180.003662
1190.0Utah State1190.0

Sunday, September 17, 2006

"Separation" Saturday

So there were a lot of big matchups this weekend, and some of them turned out to be a lot of fun to watch, while some were as overbilled as OSU at Texas last week. But despite all the marquee games, there wasn't that much of a shakeup in the rankings. Basically, there were three teams who lost a lot of ground - Notre Dame fell to #42 from #2, Nebraska fell to #32 from #4, and LSU fell from #7 to #30. Perhaps the biggest fall though was UConn from #5 to #58, but they were overrated at #5 anyway, and a loss sent them plummeting, so all works out in the end. As for the real winners, basically you've got Michigan. They scooted up to #3 from #11 after trouncing ND. Florida, Ohio State, VT, and 'Bama all picked up a few spots. Give it up for Rutgers too who are 3-0. If they ever lose though, they're going to be in the same 50-spot-drop scenario as Uconn due to SOS. Everyone seemed surprised that Louisville could walk all over Miami, but they were ranked #6 last week where Miami was #49, so that really shouldn't have been all that much of a shock. Not too many close matchups on the docket for next week (at least at a cursory glance), but it is interesting to look at the score dropoffs caused by losses. The lowest-ranked undefeated school (UCLA, 2-0) comes in about 0.785 whereas the highest-ranked one-loss team (LSU, 2-1) comes in around 0.481. Lesson learned? Don't lose. Seems obvious enough, right? And at this point, with only 3 weeks gone, a loss is going to hurt really bad. But taken out of 12 regular-season games, 1 loss isn't going to kill you. This is what happens when you base half of the rankings on winning, but f you wanna be the best, you gotta win.

Week 3 Top 25

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000USC30.114735
20.931927West Virginia1-0.068073
30.925994Michigan110.086753
40.911008Louisville60.043938
50.900682Florida100.053805
60.891641Ohio State160.079048
70.887467Boise State80.037911
80.884972Missouri90.036346
90.87659Virginia Tech150.053836
100.873574Alabama180.064563
110.873004Auburn130.042668
120.866187Houston120.0276
130.864869Rutgers210.058132
140.863744TCU170.053384
150.860611Texas A&M140.033052
160.860207Georgia230.060030
170.852881Michigan State310.074401
180.849865Wisconsin280.057528
190.842663Oregon250.043079
200.839560Kansas State370.073161
210.836649Arizona State290.048267
220.836535Iowa300.053238
230.834225South Florida320.057929
240.832765Wake Forest400.072986
250.817882Boston College390.057638

Week 3 Bottom 10

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1100.141836North Carolina State94-0.060765
1110.110213Stanford1100.038889
1120.108985Duke1090.033615
1130.107443Miami (Ohio)1050.008677
1140.090917Mississippi State1110.022897
1150.086497Florida Atlantic1150.037022
1160.084952Eastern Michigan1080.008888
1170.064427Colorado1130.001675
1180.012235Temple117-0.019096
1190.000000Utah State118-0.028438

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Week 2 Top 25

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000West Virginia110.135981
20.978329Notre Dame500.242245
30.886727USC6-0.013472
40.88525Nebraska230.08375
50.869368Louisville250.072869
60.866304LSU240.066969
70.863621Connecticut7-0.034605
80.854851Florida340.081954
90.851896Missouri270.065165
100.85135Boise State3-0.092406
110.843815Houston170.021697
120.839061Michigan350.067353
130.833583Auburn13-0.029433
140.822858Texas A&M530.08944
150.820801Ohio State390.068161
160.819941Virginia Tech5-0.089629
170.817619Pittsburgh330.044078
180.813473UCLA12-0.049621
190.813085Tennessee370.055909
200.812922Alabama15-0.019427
210.810352TCU510.075914
220.810143Rutgers540.078721
230.803868Indiana420.05479
240.801062Oregon280.016366
250.799031Georgia360.039978

Week 2 Bottom 10

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1100.069857Mississippi State89-0.072519
1110.062849Louisiana Lafayette112-0.013581
1120.061893Idaho79-0.101091
1130.056857Duke1180.053911
1140.046359Florida Atlantic108-0.045809
1150.044859SMU110-0.040494
1160.042427Colorado1190.042427
1170.030484Temple94-0.101085
1180.017513Utah State107-0.08114
1190.000000Kent State113-0.074666

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

In case you were wondering

For all the GT fans, and those who just dislike Notre Dame, I thought you might be interested to know that they've come in at #50 with a score of .736 in the rankings.

Week 1 Top 30

I'm posting the top 30 this week rather than 25 because its week 1 and there will be a lot of changing going on over the next couple weeks before things start to settle out. Also because after 30 there's a bit of a dropoff in scores.

Rank
Score
Team
Conference
1 1.000000 Cinncinati Big East
2 0.950478 Minnesota Big 10
3 0.943756 Boise State WAC
4 0.909766 Troy Sun Belt
5 0.909569 Virginia Tech ACC
6 0.900200 USC Pac 10
7 0.898226 Connecticut Big East
8 0.889077 Tulsa CUSA
9 0.882768 South Carolina SEC
10 0.879529 UNLV MWC
11 0.864019 West Virginia Big East
12 0.863094 UCLA Pac 10
13 0.863016 Auburn SEC
14 0.847908 Purdue Big 10
15 0.832349 Alabama SEC
16 0.822741 Ball State MAC
17 0.822118 Houston CUSA
18 0.817572 Oregon State Pac 10
19 0.811954 UCF CUSA
20 0.811058 Michigan State Big 10
21 0.809894 Texas Big XII
22 0.806976 Mississippi SEC
23 0.801501 Nebraska Big XII
24 0.799336 LSU SEC
25 0.796499 Louisville Big East
26 0.790414 Texas Tech Big XII
27 0.786730 Missouri Big XII
28 0.784697 Oregon Pac 10
29 0.783599 Clemson ACC
30 0.781162 Iowa Big 10

Week 1 Bottom 10

I thought I'd post the bottom 10 first because it goes to show how much losing to a Div. I-AA program can hurt you in these rankings. In the case of Arkansas and North Texas, it shows how much getting clobbered with a ton of yards and committing a large number of turnovers can hurt you when playing a top-tier program.

Rank
Score
Team
Conference
110 0.085352 SMU CUSA
111 0.079267 Kentucky SEC
112 0.076431 Louisiana Lafayette Sun Belt
113 0.074666 Kent State MAC
114 0.074266 Louisiana Tech WAC
115 0.073842 Arkansas SEC
116 0.065873 North Texas Sun Belt
117 0.023276 New Mexico MWC
118 0.002945 Duke ACC
119 0.000000 Colorado Big XII

Weak weeks

I've decided that to keep things simple (and because I'm lazy) I'm going to apply the same "week" to games that ESPN is doing. Because of the move to a 12-game schedule, many teams now play twice in one week (Saturday/Thursday, Monday/Saturday, etc). I believe I had stated at some point that I woudl designate a week as being Sunday through Saturday with new rankings coming out every Sunday night. Instead, I'm going to follow ESPN's week system and release new rankings following the conclusion of all games in a weekly designation. If you don't like it, take it up with ESPN and the NCAA. In more related news, I'm entering all the weekend's games' data into my software and should have rankings posted for you tonight hopefully. I doubt very much that they'll line up with the other polls this week, but it should be interesting to see what happens.