2017 Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

We didn't really need more bowls, so contracting by one from last year is a baby step in the right direction. I'm not at all sad to see the Miami Beach bowl leave us, even if it was replaced by the equally pointless Frisco Bowl. Still, I'm going to miss the Poinsettia Bowl - it had a pretty good track record for producing exciting games. RIP.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans, LA - December 16, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#20 Troy loses to #40 North Texas by 9.1069

Team	Troy (10-2)	North Texas (9-4)
SOS	0.21828	0.513426
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30 (13.0968)	35.923077 (36.887683)
YPG	416.416667 (181.79086)	467 (479.539884)
TCPG	1.416667 (2.214873)	1.692308 (1.646866)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	17.5 (27.3602)	33.846154 (32.937317)
YPG	340.083333 (531.699887)	431.153846 (419.576503)
TFPG	1.75 (0.76398)	1.076923 (1.105841)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	82.34%	87.91%
Defense	58.81%	89.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.923077 (23.017058)	26.711538 (32.123942)

AutoNation Cure Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 16, 2017 - 2:30 PM
#82 Western Kentucky beats #83 Georgia State by 3.0181

Team	Western Kentucky (6-6)	Georgia State (6-5)
SOS	0.164178	0.095271
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.166667 (8.591982)	19.727273 (3.758874)
YPG	400.583333 (131.533941)	384.727273 (73.306704)
TCPG	1.666667 (2.786073)	1.818182 (3.289924)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.833333 (44.855781)	25.454545 (46.058931)
YPG	373.666667 (624.637641)	391.363636 (708.156063)
TFPG	1.166667 (0.383082)	1.181818 (0.225186)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	74.65%	58.6%
Defense	82.07%	74.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.810606 (27.325456)	23.280303 (24.307327)

Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 16, 2017 - 3:30 PM
#19 Boise State beats #44 Oregon by 5.9391

Team	Boise State (10-3)	Oregon (7-5)
SOS	0.714765	0.598176
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.076923 (45.854924)	36.666667 (43.86624)
YPG	400.307692 (572.251855)	454.333333 (543.542592)
TCPG	0.769231 (0.438823)	1.75 (1.406384)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.461538 (12.813634)	28.25 (22.703056)
YPG	336.692308 (192.072861)	359.833333 (289.179339)
TFPG	1.692308 (2.419205)	1.833333 (2.193312)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	91.58%	92.23%
Defense	76.24%	89.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.163462 (34.27899)	29.564103 (28.339937)

Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, NM - December 16, 2017 - 4:30 PM
#60 Marshall beats #56 Colorado State by 12.1299

Team	Marshall (7-5)	Colorado State (7-5)
SOS	0.460147	0.278725
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.333333 (24.234409)	33.833333 (18.860392)
YPG	369.75 (340.278707)	501 (279.28245)
TCPG	1.75 (1.889486)	1.333333 (1.9234)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.25 (20.784341)	27.5 (39.670125)
YPG	337.666667 (364.580726)	425.833333 (614.285875)
TFPG	1.25 (1.150368)	1.333333 (0.743267)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.39%	77.18%
Defense	65.15%	73.8%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.916667 (31.952267)	26.541667 (19.822366)

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, AL - December 16, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#81 Middle Tennessee beats #42 Arkansas State by 13.4749

Team	Middle Tennessee (6-6)	Arkansas State (7-4)
SOS	0.337803	0.058885
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.75 (16.721249)	38.545455 (4.539498)
YPG	396.833333 (268.102981)	498.727273 (58.735111)
TCPG	1.666667 (2.207323)	2 (3.76446)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.25 (32.116555)	24.909091 (46.884638)
YPG	348.583333 (461.661675)	381 (717.12963)
TFPG	0.666667 (0.450404)	1.909091 (0.224834)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	71.28%	88.33%
Defense	79.51%	74.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.829545 (31.802943)	31.397727 (18.328026)

Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, FL - December 19, 2017 - 7:00 PM
#73 Akron loses to #17 Florida Atlantic by 7.4919

Team	Akron (7-6)	Florida Atlantic (10-3)
SOS	0.566993	0.526259
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.615385 (26.779516)	39.846154 (41.938794)
YPG	329.461538 (373.604772)	491.769231 (517.595967)
TCPG	1.307692 (1.13248)	1 (0.947482)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.307692 (22.78283)	24.230769 (22.958218)
YPG	431.846154 (373.984815)	408.307692 (386.864189)
TFPG	2.076923 (2.355202)	2 (2.105036)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.92%	92.6%
Defense	69.62%	67.82%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.923077 (24.868867)	33.076923 (32.360812)

DXL Frisco Bowl
Frisco, TX - December 20, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#69 Louisiana Tech loses to #50 SMU by 14.7966

Team	Louisiana Tech (6-6)	SMU (7-5)
SOS	0.427292	0.625229
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.75 (24.56929)	40.166667 (50.22673)
YPG	406.833333 (347.673257)	494.083333 (617.830457)
TCPG	1.25 (1.43177)	1.083333 (0.812004)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.666667 (30.544427)	35.5 (26.608741)
YPG	394.083333 (451.389355)	486.666667 (364.777107)
TFPG	1.833333 (1.566737)	1.916667 (2.396711)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.76%	92.91%
Defense	77.33%	83.37%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	32.125 (25.589016)	33.416667 (40.385578)

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL - December 21, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#80 Temple beats #51 Florida Intl by 7.8407

Team	Temple (6-6)	Florida Intl (8-4)
SOS	0.522631	0.364835
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.833333 (25.95734)	27.5 (20.065925)
YPG	387.583333 (405.12613)	403.583333 (294.482651)
TCPG	1.75 (1.670792)	1.5 (1.905495)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.666667 (26.414418)	28.5 (36.204405)
YPG	391.833333 (374.098173)	416.083333 (528.563141)
TFPG	1.25 (1.306578)	1.416667 (1.033699)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	73.23%	77.87%
Defense	80.7%	78.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.666667 (31.080872)	27.583333 (23.240172)

Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, Bahamas - December 22, 2017 - 12:30 PM
#47 UAB loses to #39 Ohio by 16.1217

Team	UAB (8-4)	Ohio (8-4)
SOS	0	0.271212
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.583333 (0)	38.916667 (21.109334)
YPG	364.083333 (0)	430.916667 (233.739542)
TCPG	1.25 (2.5)	1.75 (2.550758)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.333333 (48.666667)	25.75 (37.532582)
YPG	357.833333 (715.666667)	373.166667 (543.918777)
TFPG	1.583333 (0)	1.416667 (0.768434)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.86%	103.21%
Defense	77.72%	78.86%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.666667 (18.766291)	31.625 (34.888)

Famous Idaho Potato Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, ID - December 22, 2017 - 4:00 PM
#41 Central Michigan loses to #55 Wyoming by 4.158

Team	Central Michigan (8-4)	Wyoming (7-5)
SOS	0.327793	0.343328
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.666667 (19.449051)	22.333333 (15.335317)
YPG	391.916667 (256.93508)	286.916667 (197.013051)
TCPG	1.916667 (2.576794)	1.166667 (1.532235)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.666667 (35.85104)	17.833333 (23.421301)
YPG	379.25 (509.86901)	332.75 (437.015216)
TFPG	2.583333 (1.693597)	2.5 (1.71664)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	86.51%	88.96%
Defense	80.36%	61.25%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.75 (21.435176)	24.5 (25.593179)

Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, AL - December 23, 2017 - 12:00 PM
#63 Texas Tech beats #16 South Florida by 22.8394

Team	Texas Tech (6-6)	South Florida (9-2)
SOS	0.641785	0.170464
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.333333 (44.069237)	38.272727 (13.048244)
YPG	468.416667 (601.245581)	508.636364 (173.408378)
TCPG	1.333333 (0.95524)	1.090909 (1.809897)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	31.75 (22.746653)	22.545455 (37.404532)
YPG	434 (310.93062)	342.545455 (568.307572)
TFPG	2.25 (2.888033)	2 (0.681856)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	83.77%	86%
Defense	83.61%	75.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.439394 (40.736885)	35.011364 (17.897448)

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX - December 23, 2017 - 3:30 PM
#15 San Diego State beats #30 Army by 3.015

Team	San Diego State (10-2)	Army (9-3)
SOS	0.405039	0.380218
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.416667 (24.639873)	29.75 (22.622971)
YPG	410.166667 (332.266993)	385.416667 (293.084708)
TCPG	0.916667 (1.090762)	0.833333 (1.03297)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	18.416667 (21.914397)	20.916667 (25.927547)
YPG	303.5 (361.141327)	355 (440.04522)
TFPG	1.583333 (1.282624)	1.083333 (0.823806)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	84.75%	88.22%
Defense	69.35%	67.34%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.666667 (25.28371)	24.083333 (22.268684)

Dollar General Knick-Knacks Bowl
Mobile, AL - December 23, 2017 - 7:00 PM
#35 Appalachian State loses to #10 Toledo by 14.7871

Team	Appalachian State (8-4)	Toledo (11-2)
SOS	0.127257	0.394128
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.416667 (8.50501)	39.153846 (30.863254)
YPG	438.5 (111.604389)	509.615385 (401.707385)
TCPG	1.166667 (2.0364)	1.153846 (1.398166)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.916667 (38.255235)	25.615385 (31.039289)
YPG	359.083333 (626.774931)	379.384615 (459.717031)
TFPG	1.833333 (0.466609)	1.538462 (1.212702)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	87.09%	87.81%
Defense	69.75%	77.16%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.516026 (19.772149)	30.535256 (34.559244)

Hawai'i Aloha Bowl
Honolulu, HI - December 24, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#29 Fresno State beats #48 Houston by 0.9655

Team	Fresno State (9-4)	Houston (7-4)
SOS	0.548769	0.562798
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.692308 (29.295822)	28.363636 (31.925996)
YPG	386.846154 (424.578354)	436.090909 (490.862183)
TCPG	0.846154 (0.763622)	1.909091 (1.669317)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	17.230769 (15.550114)	23 (20.111292)
YPG	319 (287.885378)	417.545455 (365.103416)
TFPG	1.461538 (1.604094)	1.727273 (1.944211)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	78.86%	74.33%
Defense	61.73%	62.95%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.846154 (24.703557)	22.797203 (23.738055)

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX - December 26, 2017 - 1:30 PM
#66 Utah beats #59 West Virginia by 1.873

Team	Utah (6-6)	West Virginia (7-5)
SOS	0.637488	0.587413
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.5 (37.611792)	36.25 (42.587443)
YPG	417.666667 (532.514976)	485.083333 (569.888512)
TCPG	2 (1.450048)	1.833333 (1.512819)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.916667 (17.340157)	31.583333 (26.061746)
YPG	353.833333 (256.537659)	452.5 (373.391235)
TFPG	1.916667 (2.443704)	1.416667 (1.664337)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.72%	85.41%
Defense	77.25%	79.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.541667 (31.836769)	30.083333 (29.9638)

Quick Lane Motor City Bowl
Detroit, MI - December 26, 2017 - 5:15 PM
#68 Duke beats #37 Northern Illinois by 6.848

Team	Duke (6-6)	Northern Illinois (8-4)
SOS	0.589244	0.404611
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.75 (30.346066)	30.166667 (24.41153)
YPG	378.083333 (445.566671)	384.333333 (311.010989)
TCPG	1.5 (1.232268)	2 (2.381556)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	20.75 (17.046374)	20.833333 (24.807875)
YPG	335.416667 (275.548817)	328 (390.575184)
TFPG	1.583333 (1.865939)	1.75 (1.416139)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.84%	89.7%
Defense	70.7%	72.59%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.291667 (27.576971)	25.458333 (20.728952)

Cactus Bowl
Phoeniz, AZ - December 26, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#58 Kansas State loses to #79 UCLA by 23.1893

Team	Kansas State (7-5)	UCLA (6-6)
SOS	0.483886	0.881291
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.083333 (31.049352)	33.75 (59.487143)
YPG	368.333333 (356.462687)	465.666667 (820.775685)
TCPG	1 (1.032228)	1.75 (0.415482)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.833333 (26.66589)	36.75 (8.725112)
YPG	432.416667 (446.352591)	488.75 (116.038048)
TFPG	1.833333 (1.774249)	1 (1.762582)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	99.55%	82.83%
Defense	68.28%	85.93%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	34.416667 (19.887232)	29.791667 (43.076516)

Walk-On's Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA - December 27, 2017 - 1:30 PM
#36 Southern Mississippi loses to #71 Florida State by 31.2795

Team	Southern Mississippi (8-4)	Florida State (6-6)
SOS	0.189036	0.829701
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.5 (11.531196)	26.666667 (44.25072)
YPG	438.416667 (165.753066)	343.583333 (570.142871)
TCPG	1.5 (2.432892)	1.75 (0.596047)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23 (37.304344)	21.916667 (7.464773)
YPG	321.916667 (522.125655)	337 (114.781526)
TFPG	1.5 (0.567108)	1.166667 (1.935969)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	79.51%	88.7%
Defense	81.65%	74.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.208333 (9.497984)	24.833333 (40.777532)

New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, NY - December 27, 2017 - 5:15 PM
#46 Iowa beats #49 Boston College by 4.3039

Team	Iowa (7-5)	Boston College (7-5)
SOS	0.964371	0.922339
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.333333 (54.64769)	26.083333 (48.115351)
YPG	339.833333 (655.450823)	387 (713.890386)
TCPG	1.583333 (0.112825)	1.416667 (0.22004)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.916667 (1.419222)	22.5 (3.494745)
YPG	355.333333 (25.320343)	397.916667 (61.805213)
TFPG	1.916667 (3.696756)	2.083333 (3.843079)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	95.28%	77.03%
Defense	64.06%	64.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.416667 (29.071218)	23 (24.767287)

Foster Farms SANS-Francisco Bowl
Santa Clara, CA - December 27, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#53 Arizona loses to #65 Purdue by 12.0696

Team	Arizona (7-5)	Purdue (6-6)
SOS	0.464791	0.74954
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	41.833333 (38.887514)	24.166667 (36.227767)
YPG	494.5 (459.678299)	390.416667 (585.265817)
TCPG	1.666667 (1.78403)	1.333333 (0.667893)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.083333 (36.483414)	19.333333 (9.684453)
YPG	463.583333 (496.227945)	370.916667 (185.799577)
TFPG	2 (1.859164)	1.583333 (2.373543)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	96.68%	70.74%
Defense	84.02%	59.57%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.583333 (24.285984)	29.125 (36.35559)

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Houston, TX - December 27, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#62 Texas beats #52 Missouri by 7.4872

Team	Texas (6-6)	Missouri (7-5)
SOS	0.673139	0.517899
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.166667 (39.266442)	39.333333 (40.741388)
YPG	408.333333 (549.730183)	511.5 (529.810677)
TCPG	1.5 (0.980583)	1.75 (1.687354)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.666667 (14.163977)	31.75 (30.613414)
YPG	363.583333 (237.682424)	425.25 (410.026901)
TFPG	1.833333 (2.468176)	1.416667 (1.467381)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.63%	87.88%
Defense	68.11%	85.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.458333 (34.939928)	30.5 (27.452682)

Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grumman USNA Bowl
Annapolis, MD - December 28, 2017 - 1:30 PM
#75 Virginia loses to #70 Navy by 16.6062

Team	Virginia (6-6)	Navy (6-6)
SOS	0.622178	0.867029
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.833333 (29.657151)	28.916667 (50.143177)
YPG	356.166667 (443.198129)	426.75 (740.009252)
TCPG	1.333333 (1.007525)	1.583333 (0.421075)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.666667 (20.150507)	27.916667 (7.424214)
YPG	358.666667 (271.024315)	386.583333 (102.808745)
TFPG	1.5 (1.866534)	1.083333 (1.878563)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	76.48%	77.44%
Defense	84.97%	82.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.875 (18.540683)	27.791667 (35.146842)

Camping World Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 28, 2017 - 5:15 PM
#22 Virginia Tech loses to #23 Oklahoma State by 3.6933

Team	Virginia Tech (9-3)	Oklahoma State (9-3)
SOS	0.546616	0.568181
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.75 (31.43042)	46.25 (52.556743)
YPG	404.083333 (441.756831)	575.666667 (654.165725)
TCPG	1 (0.906768)	1.75 (1.511367)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.5 (12.241368)	30.083333 (25.98111)
YPG	305.25 (276.790932)	400.25 (345.67111)
TFPG	1.583333 (1.730951)	1.833333 (2.08333)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.31%	91.82%
Defense	50.54%	85.9%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.416667 (28.705765)	29.875 (32.399055)

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX - December 28, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#28 Stanford beats #18 TCU by 10.0494

Team	Stanford (9-4)	TCU (10-3)
SOS	0.863833	0.635943
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32 (55.285312)	33.153846 (42.167913)
YPG	389.923077 (673.656843)	414 (526.560804)
TCPG	0.769231 (0.209488)	1.076923 (0.784123)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.461538 (5.844707)	17.615385 (12.826008)
YPG	398.769231 (108.59842)	328.538462 (239.213453)
TFPG	1.923077 (3.322435)	1.384615 (1.761073)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	93.79%	91.52%
Defense	61.51%	61.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.807692 (34.05566)	27.307692 (24.00631)

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 28, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#26 Washington State loses to #27 Michigan State by 4.7361

Team	Washington State (9-3)	Michigan State (9-3)
SOS	0.636463	0.833199
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	31.416667 (39.991092)	23.083333 (38.466021)
YPG	445.833333 (567.512842)	378.333333 (630.45391)
TCPG	2.416667 (1.757096)	1.666667 (0.556003)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.416667 (17.752724)	20.25 (6.755441)
YPG	313.583333 (227.998289)	297.416667 (99.218795)
TFPG	2.25 (2.864084)	1.75 (2.916197)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.53%	69.73%
Defense	88.99%	77.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.833333 (23.373266)	23.75 (28.109372)

Belk Queen City Bowl
Charlotte, NC - December 29, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#45 Wake Forest beats #57 Texas A&M by 9.709

Team	Wake Forest (7-5)	Texas A&M (7-5)
SOS	0.777844	0.657657
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.666667 (52.374829)	31.083333 (40.884344)
YPG	450.75 (701.226366)	389.583333 (512.424413)
TCPG	0.916667 (0.407286)	1.333333 (0.912915)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.333333 (11.700216)	28.666667 (19.627665)
YPG	444.25 (197.385606)	388.666667 (266.114625)
TFPG	1.5 (2.333532)	1.666667 (2.19219)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	85.36%	91.18%
Defense	67.74%	84.29%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.166667 (36.001247)	28.708333 (26.29228)

Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX - December 29, 2017 - 3:00 PM
#33 NC State loses to #54 Arizona State by 5.4789

Team	NC State (8-4)	Arizona State (7-5)
SOS	0.725099	0.824819
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.583333 (44.351889)	31.916667 (52.650946)
YPG	449.25 (651.501452)	427.583333 (705.357715)
TCPG	1 (0.549802)	0.916667 (0.321165)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.75 (13.6076)	31.25 (10.948813)
YPG	377.166667 (207.366988)	446.75 (156.524224)
TFPG	1.416667 (2.054447)	1.333333 (2.199517)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.8%	85.31%
Defense	75%	79.94%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.916667 (27.650351)	28.333333 (33.129273)

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN - December 29, 2017 - 4:30 PM
#64 Kentucky loses to #25 Northwestern by 5.6481

Team	Kentucky (7-5)	Northwestern (9-3)
SOS	0.652236	0.653257
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.75 (33.590154)	29.666667 (38.759915)
YPG	350.833333 (457.65226)	405.166667 (529.355922)
TCPG	1.083333 (0.753489)	1.5 (1.040229)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.583333 (19.880509)	19.833333 (13.754139)
YPG	425.666667 (296.063085)	358.833333 (248.845893)
TFPG	1.5 (1.956708)	2 (2.613028)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	83.88%	83.68%
Defense	76.74%	63.17%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	22.791667 (23.672147)	29.125 (29.320212)

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Tucson, AZ - December 29, 2017 - 5:30 PM
#76 New Mexico State loses to #74 Utah State by 9.8214

Team	New Mexico State (6-6)	Utah State (6-6)
SOS	0.270637	0.389348
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.583333 (16.012689)	31 (24.139576)
YPG	453.75 (245.603078)	393.75 (306.61155)
TCPG	2.166667 (3.160573)	1.833333 (2.239057)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.5 (44.491143)	27 (32.975208)
YPG	397.833333 (580.329827)	402.416667 (491.473085)
TFPG	2.083333 (1.127654)	2.166667 (1.687175)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	74.51%	89.98%
Defense	87.62%	76.68%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.291667 (24.493949)	30.75 (34.31536)

Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX - December 29, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#13 USC loses to #7 Ohio State by 11.6822

Team	USC (11-2)	Ohio State (11-2)
SOS	0.776919	0.842678
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.538462 (53.667174)	42.461538 (71.562809)
YPG	489.538462 (760.663464)	523.615385 (882.47833)
TCPG	1.769231 (0.789364)	1.384615 (0.435661)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.307692 (11.737493)	19.923077 (6.268677)
YPG	404.769231 (180.59265)	292.307692 (91.972862)
TFPG	1.846154 (2.868624)	1.538462 (2.592855)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.63%	92.68%
Defense	74.28%	77.89%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.230769 (29.967925)	34.384615 (41.650151)

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL - December 30, 2017 - 12:00 PM
#31 Louisville loses to #32 Mississippi State by 7.5338

Team	Louisville (8-4)	Mississippi State (8-4)
SOS	0.569537	0.73341
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	39 (44.423886)	32.083333 (47.060475)
YPG	560.5 (638.450977)	419.833333 (615.81993)
TCPG	1.416667 (1.219645)	1.583333 (0.844202)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.083333 (23.316746)	20.416667 (10.885758)
YPG	386.75 (332.963131)	302 (161.02036)
TFPG	1.666667 (1.898457)	1.416667 (2.077995)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	79.52%	87.34%
Defense	80.03%	77.26%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.708333 (27.654822)	29.583333 (35.18861)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN - December 30, 2017 - 12:30 PM
#43 Iowa State beats #11 Memphis by 1.0051

Team	Iowa State (7-5)	Memphis (10-2)
SOS	0.616861	0.528099
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.916667 (36.90885)	47.666667 (50.345438)
YPG	389.333333 (480.329099)	548.166667 (578.972537)
TCPG	0.75 (0.574709)	1.333333 (1.258403)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21 (16.091838)	33.416667 (31.538717)
YPG	368.416667 (282.309587)	476.333333 (449.564353)
TFPG	1.666667 (2.056203)	2.5 (2.640495)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	87.82%	99.38%
Defense	65.14%	80.18%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.666667 (34.223783)	34.333333 (33.218638)

Playstation Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ - December 30, 2017 - 4:00 PM
#9 Washington loses to #8 Penn State by 14.2832

Team	Washington (10-2)	Penn State (10-2)
SOS	0.533513	0.748286
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	36.916667 (39.391043)	41.583333 (62.232452)
YPG	411.666667 (439.259037)	453.25 (678.321259)
TCPG	0.833333 (0.777478)	0.833333 (0.419523)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	14.5 (13.528123)	15.5 (7.803134)
YPG	277.416667 (258.822537)	329.333333 (165.795621)
TFPG	1.75 (1.867296)	2 (2.993144)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	102.49%	104.85%
Defense	59.73%	53.79%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.208333 (23.597089)	28.041667 (37.880288)

Capital One Orange Bowl
Miami, FL - December 30, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#6 Wisconsin beats #12 Miami by 4.682

Team	Wisconsin (12-1)	Miami (10-2)
SOS	0.701467	0.708179
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.769231 (47.376002)	29.5 (41.782561)
YPG	416.153846 (583.83638)	405.916667 (574.923318)
TCPG	1.769231 (1.056348)	1.25 (0.729553)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.153846 (7.853714)	19.916667 (11.624203)
YPG	253.230769 (151.195482)	359.416667 (209.770662)
TFPG	2 (2.805868)	2.5 (3.540895)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.74%	83.06%
Defense	59.36%	63.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.842949 (29.500103)	21.326923 (24.818138)

Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 1, 2018 - 12:00 PM
#34 Michigan beats #38 South Carolina by 7.1057

Team	Michigan (8-4)	South Carolina (8-4)
SOS	0.789489	0.672693
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.75 (40.658684)	24.083333 (32.40138)
YPG	354.916667 (560.405609)	340.166667 (457.655471)
TCPG	1.333333 (0.561363)	1.166667 (0.763716)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	18.25 (7.683652)	20.833333 (13.637792)
YPG	268.583333 (113.079492)	374.583333 (245.207494)
TFPG	1.166667 (1.842141)	1.916667 (2.578657)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	82.92%	80.91%
Defense	77.66%	63.56%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.291667 (27.148238)	21.166667 (20.042516)

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA - January 1, 2018 - 12:30 PM
#1 UCF loses to #14 Auburn by 13.8939

Team	UCF (12-0)	Auburn (10-3)
SOS	0.524188	0.873062
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	49.416667 (51.807247)	34.384615 (60.039802)
YPG	540.416667 (566.559863)	454 (792.740296)
TCPG	1.166667 (1.110228)	1.307692 (0.331992)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.166667 (23.949204)	17.307692 (4.394008)
YPG	428.5 (407.770884)	317.615385 (80.634923)
TFPG	2.416667 (2.533575)	1.384615 (2.41771)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	104.5%	86.56%
Defense	67.12%	62.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.362179 (28.100628)	29.775641 (41.994503)

Citrus Bowl Presented by Overton's
Orlando, FL - January 1, 2018 - 1:00 PM
#21 Notre Dame beats #24 LSU by 24.6716

Team	Notre Dame (9-3)	LSU (9-3)
SOS	1	0.628008
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35.333333 (70.666667)	28.083333 (35.273116)
YPG	455 (910)	412.083333 (517.58326)
TCPG	1.25 (0)	0.666667 (0.495989)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.833333 (0)	18.75 (13.9497)
YPG	366.666667 (0)	311.666667 (231.875013)
TFPG	1.666667 (3.333333)	1.333333 (1.674688)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	88.75%	77.89%
Defense	68.05%	68.75%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.041667 (42.308183)	24.958333 (17.636558)

(SEMI) Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwest Mutual
Pasadena, CA - January 1, 2018 - 5:00 PM
#4 Georgia beats #5 Oklahoma by 0.6741

Team	Georgia (12-1)	Oklahoma (12-1)
SOS	0.755475	0.678948
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.923077 (52.767023)	44.923077 (61.000866)
YPG	433.615385 (655.171165)	583.307692 (792.071182)
TCPG	1 (0.48905)	0.923077 (0.592711)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.230769 (6.470508)	25 (16.0526)
YPG	271 (132.53255)	384.692308 (247.01247)
TFPG	1.384615 (2.092085)	1.307692 (1.77571)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.04%	88.02%
Defense	55.8%	74.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.961538 (34.409812)	29.076923 (33.735687)

(SEMI) Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA - January 1, 2018 - 8:45 PM
#2 Alabama loses to #3 Clemson by 1.9026

Team	Alabama (11-1)	Clemson (12-1)
SOS	0.658569	0.757665
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	39.083333 (51.478144)	35.384615 (53.619369)
YPG	470.666667 (619.932952)	448.384615 (679.450659)
TCPG	0.666667 (0.455241)	1.076923 (0.521952)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	11.5 (7.852913)	12.769231 (6.188863)
YPG	257.833333 (176.064586)	277.923077 (134.700978)
TFPG	1.666667 (2.19523)	1.461538 (2.214713)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	94.9%	90.19%
Defense	50.97%	52.51%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.926282 (28.833503)	23.442308 (30.736141)

(FINAL) CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T
Atlanta, GA - January 8, 2018 - 8:00 PM
#4 Georgia loses to #3 Clemson by 0.567

Team	Georgia (12-1)	Clemson (12-1)
SOS	0.755475	0.757665
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.923077 (52.767023)	35.384615 (53.619369)
YPG	433.615385 (655.171165)	448.384615 (679.450659)
TCPG	1 (0.48905)	1.076923 (0.521952)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.230769 (6.470508)	12.769231 (6.188863)
YPG	271 (132.53255)	277.923077 (134.700978)
TFPG	1.384615 (2.092085)	1.461538 (2.214713)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.04%	90.19%
Defense	55.8%	52.51%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.846154 (29.477943)	24.307692 (30.044938)

Week 15 (Pre-Bowl) Rankings

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	UCF (12-0)	1	0.000000
2	0.998841	Alabama (11-1)	2	3.19E-4
3	0.982395	Clemson (12-1)	3	3.11E-4
4	0.97734	Georgia (12-1)	4	2.91E-4
5	0.967925	Oklahoma (12-1)	5	3.23E-4
6	0.965733	Wisconsin (12-1)	6	2.94E-4
7	0.934632	Ohio State (11-2)	7	5.26E-4
8	0.91073	Penn State (10-2)	8	2.73E-4
9	0.887634	Washington (10-2)	9	2.44E-4
10	0.854238	Toledo (11-2)	10	2.22E-4
11	0.838534	Memphis (10-2)	11	-1.42E-4
12	0.83702	Miami (10-2)	12	2.04E-4
13	0.83635	USC (11-2)	13	1.95E-4
14	0.832647	Auburn (10-3)	14	2.11E-4
15	0.832233	San Diego State (10-2)	15	1.99E-4
16	0.820549	South Florida (9-2)	16	1.11E-4
17	0.81518	Florida Atlantic (10-3)	17	1.6E-5
18	0.805213	TCU (10-3)	18	1.76E-4
19	0.803942	Boise State (10-3)	19	1.85E-4
20	0.801377	Troy (10-2)	20	1.83E-4
21	0.794785	Notre Dame (9-3)	21	-1.05E-4
22	0.788385	Virginia Tech (9-3)	22	1.88E-4
23	0.787753	Oklahoma State (9-3)	23	1.66E-4
24	0.778149	LSU (9-3)	24	1.68E-4
25	0.753931	Northwestern (9-3)	25	1.63E-4
26	0.751854	Washington State (9-3)	26	1.52E-4
27	0.743516	Michigan State (9-3)	27	1.39E-4
28	0.740745	Stanford (9-4)	28	1.42E-4
29	0.730232	Fresno State (9-4)	29	1.39E-4
30	0.724053	Army (9-3)	32	0.023864
31	0.723392	Louisville (8-4)	30	1.39E-4
32	0.707969	Mississippi State (8-4)	31	1.24E-4
33	0.692882	NC State (8-4)	33	9.6E-5
34	0.691012	Michigan (8-4)	34	1.02E-4
35	0.683307	Appalachian State (8-4)	35	1.09E-4
36	0.667214	Southern Mississippi (8-4)	36	1.34E-4
37	0.659984	Northern Illinois (8-4)	37	1.15E-4
38	0.658367	South Carolina (8-4)	38	8.7E-5
39	0.657796	Ohio (8-4)	39	1.15E-4
40	0.649008	North Texas (9-4)	40	3.36E-4
41	0.647089	Central Michigan (8-4)	41	9.4E-5
42	0.641791	Arkansas State (7-4)	42	6.2E-5
43	0.637525	Iowa State (7-5)	43	7.7E-5
44	0.628228	Oregon (7-5)	44	7.3E-5
45	0.625561	Wake Forest (7-5)	45	6.4E-5
46	0.624971	Iowa (7-5)	46	9.0E-5
47	0.624702	UAB (8-4)	47	1.03E-4
48	0.619765	Houston (7-4)	48	-2.7E-4
49	0.618897	Boston College (7-5)	49	4.8E-5
50	0.6145	SMU (7-5)	50	-2.62E-4
51	0.609022	Florida Intl (8-4)	51	2.6E-5
52	0.604774	Missouri (7-5)	52	5.7E-5
53	0.604495	Arizona (7-5)	53	5.2E-5
54	0.596224	Arizona State (7-5)	54	4.6E-5
55	0.595287	Wyoming (7-5)	55	4.4E-5
56	0.5946	Colorado State (7-5)	56	4.5E-5
57	0.593704	Texas A&M (7-5)	57	4.6E-5
58	0.589922	Kansas State (7-5)	58	4.4E-5
59	0.582565	West Virginia (7-5)	59	3.9E-5
60	0.582028	Marshall (7-5)	60	6.0E-6
61	0.580295	UT San Antonio (6-5)	61	8.0E-5
62	0.564477	Texas (6-6)	62	3.0E-5
63	0.560156	Texas Tech (6-6)	63	1.2E-5
64	0.557374	Kentucky (7-5)	65	3.1E-5
65	0.551677	Purdue (6-6)	66	2.0E-5
66	0.550197	Utah (6-6)	67	2.0E-5
67	0.545065	Western Michigan (6-6)	68	4.2E-5
68	0.544829	Duke (6-6)	69	2.88E-4
69	0.531046	Louisiana Tech (6-6)	70	2.7E-5
70	0.528985	Navy (6-6)	64	-0.028996
71	0.526035	Florida State (6-6)	71	1.4E-5
72	0.524454	Buffalo (6-6)	72	2.84E-4
73	0.521064	Akron (7-6)	73	8.0E-6
74	0.519269	Utah State (6-6)	74	-5.0E-6
75	0.510695	Virginia (6-6)	75	4.0E-6
76	0.506354	New Mexico State (6-6)	76	1.0E-6
77	0.499058	Ole Miss (6-6)	77	-1.6E-5
78	0.493321	Georgia Tech (5-6)	78	-3.0E-6
79	0.491625	UCLA (6-6)	79	-3.9E-5
80	0.483981	Temple (6-6)	80	-7.0E-5
81	0.481777	Middle Tennessee (6-6)	81	-3.1E-5
82	0.478801	Western Kentucky (6-6)	82	-3.4E-5
83	0.477406	Georgia State (6-5)	83	-3.2E-5
84	0.462433	Tulane (5-7)	84	-7.7E-5
85	0.462394	Indiana (5-7)	85	-2.4E-5
86	0.454246	Eastern Michigan (5-7)	86	2.59E-4
87	0.449048	California (5-7)	87	-4.7E-5
88	0.443622	Minnesota (5-7)	88	-4.0E-5
89	0.442126	Miami (OH) (5-7)	89	-6.0E-5
90	0.438563	Pittsburgh (5-7)	90	-3.0E-5
91	0.436148	Colorado (5-7)	91	-5.7E-5
92	0.430525	Air Force (5-7)	92	1.0E-6
93	0.429711	UNLV (5-7)	93	-5.3E-5
94	0.410078	Florida (4-7)	95	-7.2E-5
95	0.410078	Vanderbilt (5-7)	94	-7.5E-5
96	0.38339	UMass (4-8)	96	-9.2E-5
97	0.369273	Syracuse (4-8)	97	-1.0E-4
98	0.366556	Old Dominion (5-7)	98	-9.9E-5
99	0.366217	Louisiana (5-7)	99	-1.26E-4
100	0.3594	Arkansas (4-8)	100	-1.08E-4
101	0.353447	Maryland (4-8)	101	-1.18E-4
102	0.351575	Idaho (4-8)	102	-1.11E-4
103	0.349467	Nebraska (4-8)	103	-1.05E-4
104	0.339551	South Alabama (4-8)	104	-1.21E-4
105	0.335325	Louisiana Monroe (4-8)	105	-1.42E-4
106	0.327823	Tennessee (4-8)	106	-1.3E-4
107	0.322229	Cincinnati (4-8)	107	-4.23E-4
108	0.311039	Rutgers (4-8)	108	-1.17E-4
109	0.299347	BYU (4-9)	109	-1.5E-4
110	0.293601	Nevada (3-9)	110	-1.55E-4
111	0.289909	North Carolina (3-9)	111	-1.58E-4
112	0.27341	Hawaii (3-9)	112	-1.64E-4
113	0.249964	New Mexico (3-9)	113	-2.03E-4
114	0.242017	Connecticut (3-9)	114	-2.8E-4
115	0.232047	Tulsa (2-10)	115	-4.94E-4
116	0.220958	East Carolina (3-9)	116	-2.85E-4
117	0.202522	Georgia Southern (2-10)	117	-2.09E-4
118	0.195431	Bowling Green (2-10)	118	-1.93E-4
119	0.174274	Illinois (2-10)	119	-2.2E-4
120	0.152386	Ball State (2-10)	120	-2.23E-4
121	0.148132	Kent State (2-10)	121	-2.37E-4
122	0.139412	Texas State (2-10)	122	-2.55E-4
123	0.137491	Baylor (1-11)	123	-2.41E-4
124	0.085564	Oregon State (1-11)	124	-2.94E-4
125	0.083807	Charlotte (1-11)	125	-2.95E-4
126	0.072734	Rice (1-11)	126	1.4E-5
127	0.067523	Kansas (1-11)	127	-3.06E-4
128	0.053286	San Jose State (2-11)	128	-3.28E-4
129	0.000000	UTEP (0-12)	129	0.000000

I noticed when assembling my preliminary bowl predictions that I have left UAB's FBS flag unchecked last season, so they weren't showing up in the rankings this year (they never cracked the top 25 anyway), but it also meant their opponents weren't being credited with the proper SOS for playing an FBS team. That's been fixed as of these rankings. I don't think it made any meaningful difference this late in the season, but my sincere apologies to both UAB and their opponents for short-changing them.

Week 14 Top 25

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	UCF (12-0)	3	0.020595
2	0.998556	Alabama (11-1)	2	0.007621
3	0.982268	Clemson (12-1)	4	0.04298
4	0.976907	Georgia (12-1)	5	0.041495
5	0.967529	Oklahoma (12-1)	6	0.040676
6	0.965849	Wisconsin (12-1)	1	-0.03415
7	0.934781	Ohio State (11-2)	8	0.031441
8	0.911524	Penn State (10-2)	7	0.007229
9	0.888768	Washington (10-2)	10	0.007003
10	0.855332	Toledo (11-2)	14	0.024893
11	0.840604	Memphis (10-2)	12	-0.025046
12	0.838823	Miami (10-2)	9	-0.044409
13	0.838141	USC (11-2)	17	0.029776
14	0.834399	Auburn (10-3)	11	-0.041974
15	0.834119	San Diego State (10-2)	15	0.007136
16	0.822651	South Florida (9-2)	16	0.007624
17	0.815375	Florida Atlantic (10-3)	23	0.041313
18	0.807357	TCU (10-3)	13	-0.040925
19	0.806115	Boise State (10-3)	24	0.034403
20	0.803216	Troy (10-2)	21	0.025929
21	0.797377	Notre Dame (9-3)	18	0.006086
22	0.790785	Virginia Tech (9-3)	20	0.00668
23	0.790079	Oklahoma State (9-3)	19	0.005276
24	0.780269	LSU (9-3)	22	0.005984
25	0.756782	Northwestern (9-3)	27	0.005768

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.015 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.