Chaos Rankings

Monday, January 16, 2017

2016-2017 Conference Comparison

The ACC had a pretty phenomenal bowl season, including representative Clemson winning the championship game against the vaunted SEC and defending champ Alabama. Here's a breakdown of how each conference faired in Chaos Rankings in terms of it's membership's average and median scores.

ConferenceMedian Score (Rank)Average Score (Rank)
ACC0.529434 (2)0.521885 (1)
IND0.559235 (1)0.50213 (3)
SEC0.495256 (4)0.516885 (2)
Big Ten0.510835 (3)0.477209 (5)
Pac 120.476478 (5)0.480881 (4)
Big XII0.4386 (7)0.464053 (6)
AAC0.476141 (6)0.452573 (7)
MWC0.399516 (8)0.415923 (8)
Sun Belt0.363275 (9)0.374729 (9)
MAC0.351951 (10)0.353561 (11)
CUSA0.262176 (11)0.366605 (10)


Also of interest is the table of cross-conference competition. The ACC had a winning record against every conference they played except the Pac 12.

AACACCBig TenBig XIICUSAINDMACMWCPac 12SECSun Belt
AAC vs.--0.400 (4-6)0.200 (1-4)0.500 (2-2)0.600 (3-2)0.250 (1-3)1.000 (5-0)0.500 (2-2)--0.333 (1-2)0.667 (2-1)
ACC vs.0.600 (6-4)--0.750 (6-2)0.500 (1-1)1.000 (5-0)0.571 (4-3)1.000 (3-0)--0.000 (0-2)0.714 (10-4)1.000 (3-0)
Big Ten vs.0.800 (4-1)0.250 (2-6)--1.000 (2-0)1.000 (2-0)0.500 (1-1)0.750 (6-2)1.000 (6-0)0.571 (4-3)0.333 (1-2)1.000 (1-0)
Big XII vs.0.500 (2-2)0.500 (1-1)0.000 (0-2)--1.000 (4-0)1.000 (2-0)0.000 (0-2)1.000 (2-0)0.250 (1-3)0.600 (3-2)1.000 (1-0)
CUSA vs.0.400 (2-3)0.000 (0-5)0.000 (0-2)0.000 (0-4)--0.250 (1-3)0.556 (5-4)0.000 (0-3)0.000 (0-2)0.222 (2-7)0.500 (2-2)
IND vs.0.750 (3-1)0.429 (3-4)0.500 (1-1)0.000 (0-2)0.750 (3-1)--0.667 (2-1)0.600 (3-2)0.200 (1-4)1.000 (1-0)--
MAC vs.0.000 (0-5)0.000 (0-3)0.250 (2-6)1.000 (2-0)0.444 (4-5)0.333 (1-2)--0.429 (3-4)--0.000 (0-7)0.375 (3-5)
MWC vs.0.500 (2-2)--0.000 (0-6)0.000 (0-2)1.000 (3-0)0.400 (2-3)0.571 (4-3)--0.333 (3-6)--0.556 (5-4)
Pac 12 vs.--1.000 (2-0)0.429 (3-4)0.750 (3-1)1.000 (2-0)0.800 (4-1)--0.667 (6-3)--0.000 (0-3)1.000 (2-0)
SEC vs.0.667 (2-1)0.286 (4-10)0.667 (2-1)0.400 (2-3)0.778 (7-2)0.000 (0-1)1.000 (7-0)--1.000 (3-0)--0.889 (8-1)
Sun Belt vs.0.333 (1-2)0.000 (0-3)0.000 (0-1)0.000 (0-1)0.500 (2-2)--0.625 (5-3)0.444 (4-5)0.000 (0-2)0.111 (1-8)--

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

2016-2017 Final Rankings


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Alabama (14-1)10.000000
20.949609Clemson (14-1)20.054671
30.921211Western Michigan (13-1)30.033413
40.890481Washington (12-2)40.031479
50.882691Ohio State (11-2)50.032003
60.803743Michigan (10-3)60.028689
70.778559Oklahoma (11-2)70.02971
80.772428Wisconsin (11-3)80.028297
90.767826Western Kentucky (11-3)90.027954
100.756438San Diego State (11-3)100.027183
110.744273South Florida (11-2)110.027939
120.72384Penn State (11-3)120.027543
130.723001Florida State (10-3)130.027508
140.72193Appalachian State (10-3)140.02659
150.708527USC (10-3)160.026607
160.707986Oklahoma State (10-3)150.0258
170.701571Troy (10-3)170.026105
180.69979Temple (10-4)180.02523
190.688307Air Force (10-3)190.025639
200.686335Tulsa (10-3)200.025786
210.68547Old Dominion (10-3)210.024996
220.685411Louisville (9-4)220.025621
230.682133Colorado (10-4)230.024983
240.67778West Virginia (10-3)250.025603
250.676434Miami (9-4)240.023951
260.666686Virginia Tech (10-4)260.025259
270.658551Boise State (10-3)270.026028
280.653809Stanford (10-3)280.025152
290.634559LSU (8-4)290.022877
300.633715BYU (9-4)300.022525
310.631613Kansas State (9-4)310.022426
320.627743Houston (9-4)320.023724
330.626446Florida (9-4)330.023181
340.625229Toledo (9-4)340.023386
350.613003Utah (9-4)350.022492
360.609295Minnesota (9-4)360.022255
370.606514Auburn (8-5)370.021558
380.597281Nebraska (9-4)380.022365
390.592277Louisiana Tech (9-5)390.021358
400.592007Tennessee (9-4)400.022365
410.588338Washington State (8-5)410.020577
420.585807Georgia Tech (9-4)420.022439
430.582901New Mexico (9-4)430.022099
440.572002Idaho (9-4)440.021102
450.562017Navy (9-5)450.020724
460.559903Texas A&M (8-5)460.019719
470.559235Army (8-5)480.020176
480.559203Memphis (8-5)470.019586
490.550438Georgia (8-5)490.019702
500.534827Iowa (8-5)500.01921
510.530388North Carolina (8-5)510.019633
520.528733Arkansas State (8-5)520.018955
530.528479Pittsburgh (8-5)530.019872
540.515661Middle Tennessee (8-5)540.019069
550.497765NC State (7-6)550.017972
560.488116Ohio (8-6)560.017608
570.486842Northwestern (7-6)570.016676
580.484538Wyoming (8-6)580.017614
590.479393Baylor (7-6)590.01733
600.475455Colorado State (7-6)600.017001
610.454514Southern Mississippi (7-6)610.01745
620.451158Eastern Michigan (7-6)620.016224
630.441056Wake Forest (7-6)630.015942
640.440073Arkansas (7-6)640.016092
650.437797Boston College (7-6)650.016022
660.424483Kentucky (7-6)660.015957
670.398669Mississippi State (6-7)670.012985
680.397806TCU (6-7)680.013928
690.393077UCF (6-7)690.013365
700.386639Indiana (6-7)700.013994
710.384459Texas San Antonio (6-7)710.012983
720.3827Vanderbilt (6-7)720.013033
730.374648Miami (OH) (6-7)730.012755
740.365483Louisiana Lafayette (6-7)740.012703
750.364618California (5-7)750.012159
760.364575Texas (5-7)760.01247
770.364496South Carolina (6-7)770.012771
780.363274South Alabama (6-7)780.012745
790.357346Ole Miss (5-7)790.012059
800.352781Northern Illinois (5-7)800.011862
810.351951Central Michigan (6-7)810.012855
820.349722Georgia Southern (5-7)820.011673
830.34677Texas Tech (5-7)830.012004
840.333277Maryland (6-7)840.012525
850.32864SMU (5-7)850.011308
860.323576Hawaii (7-7)860.013114
870.313437Notre Dame (4-8)870.009988
880.308501Nevada (5-7)880.010082
890.298751Missouri (4-8)890.009481
900.294157Tulane (4-8)900.008445
910.289331UCLA (4-8)910.009249
920.283366Arizona State (5-7)920.010294
930.278909Akron (5-7)930.010361
940.269222Oregon State (4-8)940.00845
950.267028UNLV (4-8)950.008214
960.266074Oregon (4-8)960.008744
970.262175North Texas (5-8)970.008784
980.261266Duke (4-8)980.008681
990.251347Cincinnati (4-8)990.007902
1000.24875Charlotte (4-8)1000.007314
1010.244464Syracuse (4-8)1010.008728
1020.235941San Jose State (4-8)1020.007732
1030.234068Ball State (4-8)1030.007992
1040.222844Michigan State (3-9)1040.006444
1050.217543UTEP (4-8)1050.007308
1060.207145Florida Intl (4-8)1060.007434
1070.203918Utah State (3-9)1070.005979
1080.202028Iowa State (3-9)1090.005662
1090.202003Kent State (3-9)1080.004313
1100.184767Bowling Green (4-8)1100.00733
1110.17705Georgia State (3-9)1110.005114
1120.174411Marshall (3-9)1120.004389
1130.173796Louisiana Monroe (4-8)1130.00685
1140.168453New Mexico State (3-9)1140.004763
1150.163023East Carolina (3-9)1150.005705
1160.161667Arizona (3-9)1160.005147
1170.161109Illinois (3-9)1170.004596
1180.128965Florida Atlantic (3-9)1180.0038
1190.127068Purdue (3-9)1200.004775
1200.126663Rice (3-9)1190.00392
1210.121267Connecticut (3-9)1210.003728
1220.078225Virginia (2-10)1220.001615
1230.071999Massachusetts (2-10)1230.001491
1240.059442Buffalo (2-10)1247.1E-4
1250.05401Kansas (2-10)1250.001421
1260.039029Rutgers (2-10)1264.83E-4
1270.005916Fresno State (1-11)127-0.001567
1280.000000Texas State (2-10)1280.000000

Saturday, January 07, 2017

Updated Updated Championship Game Prediction

CFP National Championship Game (FINAL) presented by AT&T
Tampa, FL - January 9, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#1 Alabama loses to #2 Clemson by 1.0582
TeamAlabama (14-0)Clemson (13-1)
SOS0.91180.937
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.357143 (71.771686)39.5 (74.023)
YPG460.928571 (840.549343)503.142857 (942.889714)
TCPG1.357143 (0.2394)1.857143 (0.234)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG11.428571 (2.016)17.071429 (2.151)
YPG244 (43.0416)306.857143 (38.664)
TFPG1.928571 (3.516943)1.928571 (3.614143)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.58%89.72%
Defense53.53%63.58%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.214286 (36.961343)25.464286 (38.0195)


Updated Championship Game Prediction

Update 1/7/17 3:34 pm: Erm... Well this is embarrassing... My spreadsheet I use to auto-generate these predictions has an error in it where data is being pulled from the wrong place for the record of opponents played, which is affecting all the defensive numbers seen below. Something about Alabama allowing ~32 points per game seemed very wrong. The underlying data used for generating rankings is correct, it's just my web generator that's screwy. Stay tuned, and update will be posted later once I fix the calculator. The parts below I believe to be affected have been striked.

CFP National Championship Game (FINAL) presented by AT&T
Tampa, FL - January 9, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#1 Alabama loses to #2 Clemson by 2.1013
TeamAlabama (14-0)Clemson (13-1)
SOS0.91180.937
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.357143 (71.771686)39.5 (74.023)
YPG460.928571 (840.549343)503.142857 (942.889714)
TCPG1.357143 (0.2394)1.857143 (0.234)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.928571 (5.6322)29.214286 (3.681)
YPG401.071429 (70.749)419.071429 (52.803)
TFPG1.357143 (2.474886)1.285714 (2.409429)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.58%89.72%
Defense90.98%79.67%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.285714 (37.726343)35.714286 (39.8276)


2016 Post-Bowl Rankings

The following rankings take into account all bowl games played through 1/2/17, including the playoffs. With a looming rematch of Alabama vs Clemson, it seems fitting enough that ChaosRankings has tapped them as the #1 and #2 ranked teams, respectively. Hopefully the on-field result will be as entertaining as last year!

Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Alabama (14-0)10.000000
20.894938Clemson (13-1)50.007737
30.887798Western Michigan (13-1)2-0.073528
40.859001Washington (12-2)4-0.076311
50.850687Ohio State (11-2)3-0.085454
60.775054Michigan (10-3)6-0.068469
70.748849Oklahoma (11-2)80.006508
80.744131Wisconsin (11-3)90.006242
90.739871Western Kentucky (11-3)110.008671
100.729255San Diego State (11-3)160.017002
110.716333South Florida (11-2)150.003715
120.696296Penn State (11-3)7-0.072577
130.695492Florida State (10-3)180.004676
140.695339Appalachian State (10-3)190.004905
150.682186Oklahoma State (10-3)230.019795
160.681919USC (10-3)210.009205
170.675465Troy (10-3)220.009938
180.67456Temple (10-4)10-0.062097
190.662667Air Force (10-3)270.018076
200.660549Tulsa (10-3)280.021798
210.660473Old Dominion (10-3)250.00339
220.65979Louisville (9-4)13-0.06703
230.657149Colorado (10-4)12-0.072555
240.652483Miami (9-4)300.018874
250.652177West Virginia (10-3)14-0.065844
260.641427Virginia Tech (10-4)310.012572
270.632523Boise State (10-3)17-0.075311
280.628657Stanford (10-3)320.007027
290.611682LSU (8-4)380.018202
300.61119BYU (9-4)340.005483
310.609186Kansas State (9-4)370.014525
320.604019Houston (9-4)20-0.072911
330.603264Florida (9-4)400.018545
340.601843Toledo (9-4)24-0.057592
350.590511Utah (9-4)410.006412
360.58704Minnesota (9-4)420.006977
370.584955Auburn (8-5)26-0.062988
380.574916Nebraska (9-4)29-0.063624
390.570918Louisiana Tech (9-5)460.009256
400.569641Tennessee (9-4)480.015338
410.56776Washington State (8-5)33-0.051778
420.563367Georgia Tech (9-4)500.015972
430.560801New Mexico (9-4)490.00782
440.550899Idaho (9-4)510.021025
450.541293Navy (9-5)39-0.051787
460.540183Texas A&M (8-5)36-0.054882
470.539617Memphis (8-5)35-0.061305
480.539059Army (8-5)520.014677
490.530735Georgia (8-5)550.016489
500.515617Iowa (8-5)43-0.063156
510.510754North Carolina (8-5)45-0.052305
520.509778Arkansas State (8-5)570.021612
530.508606Pittsburgh (8-5)44-0.056466
540.496592Middle Tennessee (8-5)47-0.062191
550.479792NC State (7-6)610.028414
560.470508Ohio (8-6)53-0.051793
570.470165Northwestern (7-6)620.021823
580.466924Wyoming (8-6)56-0.043465
590.462062Baylor (7-6)630.030173
600.458454Colorado State (7-6)54-0.058345
610.437064Southern Mississippi (7-6)670.017947
620.434933Eastern Michigan (7-6)58-0.043676
630.425114Wake Forest (7-6)730.02437
640.42398Arkansas (7-6)59-0.052925
650.421774Boston College (7-6)750.026189
660.408525Kentucky (7-6)60-0.050638
670.385683Mississippi State (6-7)780.021764
680.383877TCU (6-7)65-0.046785
690.379712UCF (6-7)64-0.051786
700.372644Indiana (6-7)68-0.043579
710.371475Texas San Antonio (6-7)69-0.039816
720.369666Vanderbilt (6-7)66-0.053426
730.361893Miami (OH) (6-7)70-0.043238
740.35278Louisiana Lafayette (6-7)74-0.043538
750.352459California (5-7)80-0.00832
760.352104Texas (5-7)79-0.009834
770.351725South Carolina (6-7)76-0.042885
780.350529South Alabama (6-7)72-0.053071
790.345286Ole Miss (5-7)81-0.011056
800.340918Northern Illinois (5-7)82-0.012
810.339095Central Michigan (6-7)71-0.065096
820.338049Georgia Southern (5-7)83-0.009181
830.334765Texas Tech (5-7)84-0.00928
840.320751Maryland (6-7)77-0.048344
850.317332SMU (5-7)85-0.010119
860.310462Hawaii (7-7)940.032684
870.303448Notre Dame (4-8)86-0.007198
880.298419Nevada (5-7)87-0.006114
890.289269Missouri (4-8)88-0.009979
900.285711Tulane (4-8)89-0.007679
910.280081UCLA (4-8)91-0.008397
920.273071Arizona State (5-7)92-0.009313
930.268547Akron (5-7)93-0.010209
940.260772Oregon State (4-8)95-0.008087
950.258813UNLV (4-8)97-0.00671
960.25733Oregon (4-8)96-0.008593
970.253391North Texas (5-8)90-0.037356
980.252584Duke (4-8)98-0.006395
990.243445Cincinnati (4-8)99-0.007788
1000.241435Charlotte (4-8)100-0.005865
1010.235736Syracuse (4-8)101-0.003999
1020.228209San Jose State (4-8)103-0.004061
1030.226075Ball State (4-8)102-0.010402
1040.216399Michigan State (3-9)104-0.008186
1050.210235UTEP (4-8)105-0.00513
1060.19971Florida Intl (4-8)106-0.007299
1070.197939Utah State (3-9)107-0.004731
1080.19769Kent State (3-9)108-0.004483
1090.196366Iowa State (3-9)109-0.004364
1100.177437Bowling Green (4-8)110-0.01061
1110.171935Georgia State (3-9)111-0.002539
1120.170022Marshall (3-9)112-0.003271
1130.166946Louisiana Monroe (4-8)113-0.004965
1140.163689New Mexico State (3-9)114-0.002465
1150.157317East Carolina (3-9)115-0.00687
1160.15652Arizona (3-9)117-0.004249
1170.156513Illinois (3-9)116-0.005137
1180.125164Florida Atlantic (3-9)119-0.001635
1190.122742Rice (3-9)120-0.001276
1200.122293Purdue (3-9)118-0.00683
1210.117539Connecticut (3-9)121-0.004793
1220.076609Virginia (2-10)122-0.001826
1230.070507Massachusetts (2-10)1230.001117
1240.058732Buffalo (2-10)124-0.001541
1250.052589Kansas (2-10)125-0.001597
1260.038546Rutgers (2-10)126-0.00305
1270.007484Fresno State (1-11)1270.001283
1280.000000Texas State (2-10)1280.000000

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Blame it on Matthew

When compiling the bowl predictions, I noticed some anomalies in the data regarding team records, specifically that something like 20 teams had only played 11 games this season. I could see where 2 teams maybe played 11 games due to major weather problems and schedule conflicts, but that many teams missing games meant something was wonky. During week 6, the Army/Duke game, played during Hurricane Matthew, was missing its team stats in the imported data set from ESPN, which isn't something I usually check for since it almost never happens. As a result, the data for other week 6 games following that one were ignored by my importer tool, resulting in the missing game data for so many teams that week. I've gone back and patched the Army/Duke game manually and re-run the numbers for every week of the season just to be safe. I've only update the week 15 rankings posted here, since at this point, the previous rankings aren't all that important. I've also update the bowl game predictions based on this newly updated set of data.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

2016 Annual Bowl-Prediction Catastrophe

Update: 12/15/16 - 1:35 pm These numbers have all been re-run using the complete data set which now includes the missing week 6 data I discovered.

Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, NM - December 17, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#49 New Mexico loses to #69 Texas San Antonio by 7.6134
TeamNew Mexico (8-4)Texas San Antonio (6-6)
SOS0.1929190.345626
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.833333 (14.597538)29.916667 (20.679956)
YPG470.25 (181.44032)376.416667 (260.198774)
TCPG1.166667 (1.883189)1.166667 (1.526873)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.583333 (55.823103)35.666667 (46.678679)
YPG455.583333 (735.385305)471.666667 (617.292807)
TFPG1.5 (0.578757)1.416667 (0.979274)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.95%90.83%
Defense86.75%86.42%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.75 (30.638108)32.25 (38.251529)


Las Vegas Bowl Presented by Geico Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 17, 2016 - 3:30 PM
#20 Houston beats #16 San Diego State by 18.4121
TeamHouston (9-3)San Diego State (10-3)
SOS0.4894080.148312
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG38 (37.195008)35.307692 (10.473109)
YPG459.166667 (449.43968)419.076923 (124.308273)
TCPG1.75 (1.787072)1.153846 (1.965434)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.166667 (31.826901)24.615385 (41.929255)
YPG404.416667 (412.983829)348.307692 (593.298964)
TFPG1.416667 (1.386656)1.230769 (0.365076)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense94.58%96.29%
Defense88.08%80.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.307692 (39.562132)33.237179 (21.150005)


Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, AL - December 17, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#19 Appalachian State beats #24 Toledo by 8.0736
TeamAppalachian State (9-3)Toledo (9-3)
SOS0.4619980.365855
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.083333 (26.872884)38.833333 (28.414738)
YPG431.083333 (398.319276)529.75 (387.623373)
TCPG1.083333 (1.165671)1.166667 (1.479672)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.333333 (31.562784)38.833333 (49.251928)
YPG403.166667 (433.808946)475.333333 (602.860513)
TFPG1.333333 (1.231995)1.25 (0.914638)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.1%83.78%
Defense83.15%93.37%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.958333 (38.062406)34.083333 (29.988761)


Autonation Cure Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 17, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#64 UCF beats #57 Arkansas State by 18.4556
TeamUCF (6-6)Arkansas State (7-5)
SOS0.564340.192951
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.083333 (33.954457)27 (10.419354)
YPG361.833333 (408.394047)391.5 (151.080633)
TCPG1.833333 (1.59742)1.333333 (2.152131)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.416667 (25.63133)24.166667 (39.007368)
YPG398.916667 (347.58407)366.666667 (591.835933)
TFPG1.25 (1.41085)1.5 (0.578853)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.02%78.82%
Defense84.28%75.32%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.125 (36.480913)28.208333 (18.025342)


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans, LA - December 17, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#67 Southern Mississippi beats #74 Louisiana Lafayette by 0.4895
TeamSouthern Mississippi (6-6)Louisiana Lafayette (6-6)
SOS0.3314620.327726
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.25 (22.042223)23.833333 (15.621606)
YPG471.666667 (312.679153)365.166667 (239.349222)
TCPG2.5 (3.34269)1.333333 (1.792731)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.5 (48.803274)32.25 (43.361673)
YPG465.416667 (622.297455)400.833333 (538.939657)
TFPG1.083333 (0.718168)1.833333 (1.201662)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.57%74.59%
Defense89.63%91.95%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.75 (32.701948)30.166667 (32.21244)


Miami Beach Bowl
Miami, FL - December 19, 2016 - 2:30 PM
#71 Central Michigan loses to #28 Tulsa by 8.2972
TeamCentral Michigan (6-6)Tulsa (9-3)
SOS0.4588180.434283
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.666667 (25.387929)41.416667 (35.973109)
YPG395.083333 (362.54269)521.666667 (453.10193)
TCPG1.75 (1.894137)1.75 (1.98001)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.333333 (31.749344)22.75 (25.740124)
YPG396.083333 (428.706341)359 (406.184806)
TFPG1.333333 (1.223515)1.333333 (1.158088)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.03%90.73%
Defense84.64%72.42%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.208333 (25.564026)35.375 (33.861226)


Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, FL - December 20, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#35 Memphis beats #11 Western Kentucky by 1.8472
TeamMemphis (8-4)Western Kentucky (10-3)
SOS0.5244550.42758
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.5 (41.431945)45.076923 (38.547982)
YPG461.5 (484.071965)517.384615 (442.446628)
TCPG1.5 (1.426635)1.384615 (1.585163)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.166667 (33.446665)29.923077 (34.257135)
YPG463.666667 (440.98873)386.846154 (442.876951)
TFPG1.75 (1.835593)1.461538 (1.249849)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.82%99.57%
Defense86.68%88.4%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.711538 (37.84454)40.121795 (35.997323)


San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 21, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#34 BYU loses to #56 Wyoming by 27.2353
TeamBYU (8-4)Wyoming (8-5)
SOS0.3562710.710469
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30 (21.37626)37.076923 (52.684009)
YPG406.333333 (289.529566)439.230769 (624.119691)
TCPG1.416667 (1.823899)1.692308 (0.979951)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31 (39.911198)28.923077 (16.748255)
YPG413.583333 (532.471171)388.769231 (225.121488)
TFPG1.333333 (0.950056)1.461538 (2.076756)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.38%96.47%
Defense85.66%85.02%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.461538 (19.062257)34.038462 (46.297603)


Famous Idaho Potato Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, ID - December 22, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#51 Idaho loses to #54 Colorado State by 12.5261
TeamIdaho (8-4)Colorado State (7-5)
SOS0.373560.643235
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.25 (21.10614)34.083333 (43.847186)
YPG379.916667 (283.84334)451 (580.19797)
TCPG1.416667 (1.774913)1 (0.71353)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.916667 (28.711833)37 (26.40061)
YPG339.25 (425.03954)444.416667 (317.104624)
TFPG1.25 (0.9339)1 (1.28647)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.98%86.37%
Defense77.2%95.15%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.625 (23.753375)28.5 (36.27951)


Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, Bahamas - December 23, 2016 - 1:00 PM
#58 Eastern Michigan beats #25 Old Dominion by 22.3464
TeamEastern Michigan (7-5)Old Dominion (9-3)
SOS0.4696170.14466
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.416667 (28.568368)36 (10.41552)
YPG453.916667 (426.333967)436.916667 (126.40873)
TCPG1.833333 (1.944738)0.75 (1.28301)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.333333 (30.055037)33.083333 (56.594997)
YPG427 (452.947082)440.25 (753.12687)
TFPG1.166667 (1.095773)1.583333 (0.45809)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense76.58%94.17%
Defense75.83%85.88%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.75 (42.581682)32.166667 (20.235278)


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX - December 23, 2016 - 4:30 PM
#46 Louisiana Tech loses to #39 Navy by 17.2576
TeamLouisiana Tech (8-5)Navy (9-4)
SOS0.2964140.636463
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG44 (26.084432)37.384615 (47.587849)
YPG516.076923 (305.94485)436.692308 (555.876992)
TCPG1.230769 (1.731904)1.153846 (0.838932)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.230769 (34.09686)29 (21.085146)
YPG361 (507.989092)388.692308 (282.608071)
TFPG1.615385 (0.957645)2 (2.545852)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.44%97.84%
Defense76.71%85.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.5 (23.584789)30.807692 (40.842354)


Dollar General Knick-Knacks Bowl
Mobile, AL - December 23, 2016 - 8:00 PM
#53 Ohio loses to #22 Troy by 5.2502
TeamOhio (8-5)Troy (9-3)
SOS0.213190.291002
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.538462 (11.315469)34.166667 (19.885137)
YPG392.615385 (167.403348)438.583333 (255.257254)
TCPG1.538462 (2.420954)1.5 (2.126994)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.307692 (41.398311)27.833333 (39.467555)
YPG366.923077 (577.397492)371.916667 (527.376346)
TFPG1.230769 (0.524775)0.916667 (0.533504)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.25%89.03%
Defense81.94%85.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.185897 (25.391512)30.237179 (30.641724)


Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu, HI - December 24, 2016 - 8:00 PM
#94 Hawaii beats #47 Middle Tennessee by 10.3956
TeamHawaii (6-7)Middle Tennessee (8-4)
SOS0.3736420.134853
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.461538 (19.774284)40.083333 (10.810716)
YPG382.923077 (286.152289)515.666667 (139.078394)
TCPG2.076923 (2.601795)1.5 (2.595441)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.153846 (37.774206)28.666667 (49.601761)
YPG407.692308 (510.722677)409.083333 (707.834437)
TFPG1.384615 (1.034701)1.416667 (0.382084)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.98%88.84%
Defense84.53%80.09%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.564103 (34.688023)35.11859 (24.292461)


St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL - December 26, 2016 - 11:00 AM
#70 Miami (OH) loses to #78 Mississippi State by 35.8037
TeamMiami (OH) (6-6)Mississippi State (5-7)
SOS0.2019150.765566
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.416667 (9.456353)31.5 (48.230658)
YPG361.416667 (145.950893)449 (687.478268)
TCPG1.5 (2.394255)1.333333 (0.625157)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.333333 (46.820987)29.833333 (13.987895)
YPG408.916667 (652.700516)381.75 (178.990359)
TFPG1.5 (0.605745)1.083333 (1.658726)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.05%80.18%
Defense81.98%89.31%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.625 (11.722124)30.416667 (47.525822)


Quick Lane Motor City Bowl
Detroit, MI - December 26, 2016 - 2:30 PM
#77 Maryland beats #75 Boston College by 13.3319
TeamMaryland (6-6)Boston College (6-6)
SOS0.6647210.52333
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.416667 (33.789984)19.083333 (19.973762)
YPG379.5 (504.523239)287.666667 (301.089193)
TCPG1.25 (0.838198)1.5 (1.43001)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.666667 (21.234337)35.75 (34.081905)
YPG405.416667 (271.855389)463.25 (441.634755)
TFPG1.333333 (1.772589)1.333333 (1.395547)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense76.54%75.82%
Defense89.27%88.2%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.583333 (33.935945)25.375 (20.604049)


Camping World Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA - December 26, 2016 - 5:00 PM
#61 NC State beats #66 Vanderbilt by 1.863
TeamNC State (6-6)Vanderbilt (6-6)
SOS0.782970.795527
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.833333 (40.45345)23.5 (37.389769)
YPG419.75 (657.303315)359.166667 (571.453562)
TCPG1.583333 (0.687262)1 (0.408946)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.333333 (14.468667)37 (15.131002)
YPG414.083333 (179.737012)475.333333 (194.385665)
TFPG1.666667 (2.6099)1.5 (2.386581)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense70.34%74.78%
Defense92%88.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.416667 (27.792226)28.416667 (25.929218)


Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX - December 27, 2016 - 12:00 PM
#52 Army loses to #90 North Texas by 14.6763
TeamArmy (7-5)North Texas (5-7)
SOS0.067520.39878
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.25 (3.94992)24.25 (19.34083)
YPG404.25 (54.58992)336.166667 (268.113087)
TCPG1.916667 (3.574507)1.583333 (1.903863)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.333333 (52.840533)32.333333 (38.878893)
YPG384.166667 (716.455467)445.416667 (535.586817)
TFPG1.583333 (0.213813)1.5 (1.19634)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.69%82.44%
Defense84.29%82.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.791667 (21.414407)26.291667 (36.090682)


Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grumman USNA Bowl
Annapolis, MD - December 27, 2016 - 3:30 PM
#10 Temple beats #73 Wake Forest by 4.127
TeamTemple (10-3)Wake Forest (6-6)
SOS0.456920.572964
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.846154 (30.016129)19.25 (22.059114)
YPG416.461538 (380.579212)306.75 (351.513414)
TCPG1.307692 (1.420363)1.416667 (1.209935)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.461538 (28.741465)34 (29.038448)
YPG354.615385 (385.169046)469 (400.559768)
TFPG1.076923 (0.984135)1.666667 (1.90988)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.14%71.72%
Defense85.28%82.85%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.423077 (29.527289)22.855769 (25.400289)


National Funding Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 27, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#42 Minnesota loses to #33 Washington State by 11.8299
TeamMinnesota (8-4)Washington State (8-4)
SOS0.5121830.655207
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.333333 (31.072435)40.333333 (52.853365)
YPG363.75 (372.613133)497.583333 (652.040166)
TCPG1.333333 (1.300845)1.333333 (0.919448)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.666667 (27.968175)37.833333 (26.089337)
YPG393.583333 (383.993282)456.25 (314.623613)
TFPG1.416667 (1.451185)1 (1.310414)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.3%92.64%
Defense83.24%94.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.083333 (28.580886)34.5 (40.41077)


Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Phoeniz, AZ - December 27, 2016 - 10:15 PM
#17 Boise State beats #63 Baylor by 13.0235
TeamBoise State (10-2)Baylor (6-6)
SOS0.6230490.434153
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.583333 (44.340321)34.916667 (30.318351)
YPG479.833333 (597.919357)523.333333 (454.413473)
TCPG1.25 (0.942378)2.166667 (2.452004)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.333333 (22.114459)30.166667 (34.139436)
YPG396.416667 (298.859318)390.583333 (442.020815)
TFPG1.666667 (2.07683)0.916667 (0.795947)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.75%76.25%
Defense84.57%88.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.875 (39.239878)32.125 (26.216405)


New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, NY - December 28, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#44 Pittsburgh beats #62 Northwestern by 9.2354
TeamPittsburgh (8-4)Northwestern (6-6)
SOS0.721010.777447
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG42.333333 (61.045513)25.583333 (39.779372)
YPG447.5 (645.30395)392.916667 (610.943768)
TCPG1.166667 (0.650977)1.166667 (0.51929)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.666667 (17.669367)33.416667 (14.873959)
YPG461 (257.22878)452.5 (201.410465)
TFPG2 (2.88404)1.583333 (2.461916)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense108.11%74.41%
Defense78.5%84.4%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.875 (37.959736)28.625 (28.724369)


Russell Athletic Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 28, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#14 West Virginia loses to #30 Miami by 5.0215
TeamWest Virginia (10-2)Miami (8-4)
SOS0.4837420.550624
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.583333 (31.523854)34.583333 (38.084827)
YPG506.916667 (490.433764)431.166667 (474.821429)
TCPG1.666667 (1.72086)0.833333 (0.74896)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.75 (33.814899)33.75 (30.33288)
YPG387.333333 (399.927864)444.75 (399.719952)
TFPG1.333333 (1.289979)1.416667 (1.560101)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense73.46%91.67%
Defense96.63%86.73%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.166667 (30.928367)33.666667 (35.949863)


Foster Farms SANS-Francisco Bowl
Santa Clara, CA - December 28, 2016 - 8:30 PM
#68 Indiana beats #41 Utah by 8.9654
TeamIndiana (6-6)Utah (8-4)
SOS0.723310.545462
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.916667 (37.491568)30.166667 (32.909541)
YPG433.083333 (626.507012)427.416667 (466.2791)
TCPG2.166667 (1.19899)1.75 (1.590883)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.5 (16.87809)33.25 (30.226777)
YPG415.583333 (229.975505)411.583333 (374.16053)
TFPG1.333333 (1.928827)1.416667 (1.545476)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense68.39%80.66%
Defense83.88%92.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.583333 (33.859173)30.333333 (24.893815)


Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Houston, TX - December 28, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#36 Texas A&M beats #37 Kansas State by 15.815
TeamTexas A&M (8-4)Kansas State (8-4)
SOS0.6969450.471811
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.416667 (49.366938)32.166667 (30.353174)
YPG468.083333 (652.456678)386.75 (364.945809)
TCPG1.583333 (0.959674)1 (1.056378)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.583333 (17.930754)28.916667 (30.546931)
YPG351.083333 (212.795119)393.916667 (416.124901)
TFPG1.166667 (1.626205)1.25 (1.179528)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.47%95.05%
Defense96.3%83.89%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.166667 (39.956934)30.875 (24.141964)


Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, AL - December 29, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#15 South Florida beats #76 South Carolina by 4.1914
TeamSouth Florida (10-2)South Carolina (6-6)
SOS0.4376270.581774
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.583333 (38.146487)19.25 (22.398299)
YPG515.083333 (450.828748)336.416667 (391.43694)
TCPG1.25 (1.405933)1.25 (1.045565)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.416667 (33.086278)30.75 (25.720899)
YPG357.25 (401.815509)379.916667 (317.782056)
TFPG1.416667 (1.239943)1.583333 (1.842284)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense96.7%65.4%
Defense94.11%92.5%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.166667 (31.933693)24.333333 (27.742289)


Belk Queen City Bowl
Charlotte, NC - December 29, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#59 Arkansas beats #31 Virginia Tech by 10.1145
TeamArkansas (7-5)Virginia Tech (9-4)
SOS0.7415220.535927
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.833333 (45.72719)35 (37.51489)
YPG437.916667 (649.449685)448.230769 (480.437943)
TCPG1.75 (0.904673)1.846154 (1.7135)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.75 (13.828573)27.846154 (25.845296)
YPG364.166667 (188.258143)356.230769 (330.634164)
TFPG1.166667 (1.730218)1.538462 (1.649006)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.47%89.24%
Defense83.95%89.34%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.339744 (35.786243)30.875 (25.671732)


Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX - December 29, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#23 Oklahoma State loses to #12 Colorado by 15.8752
TeamOklahoma State (9-3)Colorado (10-3)
SOS0.5244740.793745
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG38.666667 (40.559323)32.846154 (52.142941)
YPG492.083333 (516.169828)446.307692 (708.508998)
TCPG1.166667 (1.109561)1.461538 (0.602899)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.916667 (32.256514)29.307692 (12.089716)
YPG403.5 (383.749482)382.923077 (157.959598)
TFPG1.5 (1.573422)1.076923 (1.709605)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense89.8%84.11%
Defense96.06%87.47%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.987179 (26.324519)33.38141 (42.199727)


Autozone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN - December 30, 2016 - 12:00 PM
#55 Georgia beats #65 TCU by 1.2266
TeamGeorgia (7-5)TCU (6-6)
SOS0.6691290.547178
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24 (32.118192)31.666667 (34.654607)
YPG382.416667 (511.772164)475 (519.8191)
TCPG1.5 (0.992613)1.5 (1.358466)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.166667 (24.594744)32.666667 (29.584371)
YPG486 (321.606612)431.416667 (390.709916)
TFPG1.333333 (1.784344)1.333333 (1.459141)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense71.72%76.19%
Defense87.4%86.54%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.333333 (30.851281)34.416667 (29.624676)


Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX - December 30, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#32 Stanford beats #45 North Carolina by 16.9183
TeamStanford (9-3)North Carolina (8-4)
SOS0.7550510.403481
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.416667 (39.891861)33.083333 (26.696993)
YPG374.083333 (564.90399)442.416667 (357.013438)
TCPG1.5 (0.734847)1.083333 (1.292458)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.75 (16.04416)30.75 (36.685919)
YPG421.5 (206.492007)400.666667 (478.010559)
TFPG1.25 (1.887628)1.416667 (1.143196)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.71%85.46%
Defense88.8%87.71%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.583333 (38.28889)32.916667 (21.370576)


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN - December 30, 2016 - 3:30 PM
#29 Nebraska loses to #48 Tennessee by 24.9612
TeamNebraska (9-3)Tennessee (8-4)
SOS0.6923170.92163
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.75 (37.03896)36.25 (66.818175)
YPG386.083333 (534.58411)437.25 (805.965435)
TCPG1.083333 (0.666647)2.083333 (0.326542)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.25 (24.153116)25.583333 (4.009932)
YPG470.5 (289.529703)377.166667 (59.117103)
TFPG1.166667 (1.615406)1.25 (2.304075)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense79.18%94.75%
Defense95.34%77.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.166667 (20.524446)37.75 (45.485645)


Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Tucson, AZ - December 30, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#72 South Alabama loses to #27 Air Force by 6.4517
TeamSouth Alabama (6-6)Air Force (9-3)
SOS0.1708850.342827
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.75 (8.800578)34.333333 (23.540787)
YPG394.583333 (134.856746)451.5 (309.572781)
TCPG1.583333 (2.625531)1.416667 (1.86199)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.916667 (41.317564)32.833333 (43.15436)
YPG342.166667 (567.391032)430.5 (565.825953)
TFPG1.083333 (0.370251)1.416667 (0.971343)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.58%86.91%
Defense83.22%87.16%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.291667 (25.977469)29.625 (32.429176)


Capital One Orange Bowl
Miami, FL - December 30, 2016 - 8:00 PM
#6 Michigan beats #18 Florida State by 4.0509
TeamMichigan (10-2)Florida State (9-3)
SOS0.8665510.887343
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG41 (71.057182)35.25 (62.557682)
YPG439.333333 (761.409479)474.333333 (841.792726)
TCPG0.916667 (0.244657)1.5 (0.337971)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.333333 (8.095906)34.166667 (7.698228)
YPG393.666667 (105.068846)437.333333 (98.537323)
TFPG1.083333 (1.877527)1.083333 (1.922577)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense106.66%84.93%
Defense88.06%89.29%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.583333 (39.377705)32.791667 (35.326794)


Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 31, 2016 - 11:00 AM
#38 LSU beats #13 Louisville by 7.7258
TeamLSU (7-4)Louisville (9-3)
SOS0.9245420.622489
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.272727 (52.278648)45.333333 (56.439003)
YPG425.727273 (787.205488)558.75 (695.631458)
TCPG1.454545 (0.219514)2.583333 (1.950474)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.727273 (5.240901)32.916667 (24.852808)
YPG445.272727 (67.198779)426.416667 (321.953965)
TFPG1.636364 (3.025774)1.25 (1.556223)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense75.9%92.72%
Defense89.13%88.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.594697 (38.565728)40.030303 (30.839952)


Taxslayer Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL - December 31, 2016 - 11:00 AM
#50 Georgia Tech loses to #60 Kentucky by 9.5173
TeamGeorgia Tech (8-4)Kentucky (7-5)
SOS0.6653230.746894
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.833333 (37.036314)31 (46.307428)
YPG388.583333 (517.066858)428.25 (639.714711)
TCPG1.25 (0.836693)2.25 (1.138977)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.833333 (24.654539)29.416667 (14.89107)
YPG468.5 (313.592349)383.083333 (193.92138)
TFPG1.25 (1.663308)1.25 (1.867235)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.86%82.73%
Defense89.85%87.76%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.625 (25.963692)33.916667 (35.480984)


Chick-Fil-A (SEMI) Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA - December 31, 2016 - 3:00 PM
#4 Washington loses to #1 Alabama by 20.7591
TeamWashington (12-1)Alabama (13-0)
SOS0.5368460.86379
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG44.461538 (47.737998)40.538462 (70.033435)
YPG477.153846 (512.316267)471.307692 (814.221743)
TCPG0.923077 (0.855054)1.461538 (0.398152)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.846154 (27.646731)30.923077 (8.424065)
YPG390.384615 (361.616392)396.538462 (108.025008)
TFPG1.846154 (1.982201)1.461538 (2.524925)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense106.49%98.3%
Defense87.38%89.12%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.692308 (28.081031)35.192308 (48.840083)


Playstation (SEMI) Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ - December 31, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#3 Ohio State beats #5 Clemson by 11.1642
TeamOhio State (11-1)Clemson (12-1)
SOS0.9889410.861552
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG42.666667 (84.389632)40.153846 (69.189253)
YPG479.5 (948.394419)505.692308 (871.360438)
TCPG0.75 (0.016589)1.846154 (0.511193)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35 (0.77413)28.538462 (7.902186)
YPG440.75 (9.748509)415.384615 (115.018338)
TFPG1.166667 (2.307529)1.461538 (2.518383)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense101.69%90.75%
Defense90.75%78.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score35.602564 (46.145909)37.576923 (34.981691)


Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX - January 2, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#2 Western Michigan loses to #9 Wisconsin by 39.6096
TeamWestern Michigan (13-0)Wisconsin (10-3)
SOS0.1921280.916908
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.538462 (16.729915)28.692308 (52.616413)
YPG495.923077 (190.561418)383.692308 (703.621093)
TCPG0.538462 (0.870016)1.230769 (0.204534)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.461538 (47.602304)25.692308 (4.26965)
YPG368.692308 (595.712384)325.076923 (54.022583)
TFPG1.153846 (0.443372)1.076923 (1.974879)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense100.33%85.46%
Defense91.32%90.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.615385 (10.499783)29.076923 (50.109358)


Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 2, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#40 Florida beats #43 Iowa by 14.5106
TeamFlorida (8-4)Iowa (8-4)
SOS0.8894720.588356
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.416667 (41.656939)26.75 (31.477046)
YPG345.083333 (613.883925)333.25 (392.139274)
TCPG1.666667 (0.368427)0.75 (0.617466)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.083333 (7.092213)31.5 (25.933572)
YPG432.5 (95.60672)402.166667 (331.098991)
TFPG1.25 (2.22368)1.25 (1.47089)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.55%91.74%
Defense84.78%89.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.458333 (33.795255)29.416667 (19.28463)


Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwest Mutual
Pasadena, CA - January 2, 2017 - 5:00 PM
#21 USC loses to #7 Penn State by 5.4373
TeamUSC (9-3)Penn State (11-2)
SOS0.8914410.913181
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.916667 (58.686533)36.692308 (67.013436)
YPG468.916667 (836.023085)430.076923 (785.476149)
TCPG1.583333 (0.34377)1.307692 (0.227065)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.25 (7.436292)28.153846 (4.888578)
YPG464.25 (100.797032)392.692308 (68.186307)
TFPG1.416667 (2.52575)1.769231 (3.231256)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.23%97.5%
Defense84.31%81.94%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.535256 (31.787555)35.471154 (37.224864)


Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA - January 2, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#26 Auburn loses to #8 Oklahoma by 4.9721
TeamAuburn (8-4)Oklahoma (10-2)
SOS0.8759530.793898
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.25 (56.498969)44.666667 (70.921555)
YPG449.25 (787.043771)557.333333 (884.931637)
TCPG1.083333 (0.268769)1.416667 (0.583956)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.916667 (6.925958)27.666667 (11.404311)
YPG380.166667 (94.317069)367.166667 (151.347569)
TFPG1.583333 (2.773851)1.583333 (2.51401)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.04%91.59%
Defense83.92%86.12%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.958333 (33.95164)36.291667 (38.923756)


CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T (FINAL) CFP Championship Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 9, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#1 Alabama loses to #3 Ohio State by 11.0031
TeamAlabama (13-0)Ohio State (11-1)
SOS0.863790.988941
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG40.538462 (70.033435)42.666667 (84.389632)
YPG471.307692 (814.221743)479.5 (948.394419)
TCPG1.461538 (0.398152)0.75 (0.016589)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.923077 (8.424065)35 (0.77413)
YPG396.538462 (108.025008)440.75 (9.748509)
TFPG1.461538 (2.524925)1.166667 (2.307529)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense98.3%101.69%
Defense89.12%90.75%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.769231 (35.403783)36.794872 (46.406848)