Chaos Rankings

Monday, December 11, 2017

2017 Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

We didn't really need more bowls, so contracting by one from last year is a baby step in the right direction. I'm not at all sad to see the Miami Beach bowl leave us, even if it was replaced by the equally pointless Frisco Bowl. Still, I'm going to miss the Poinsettia Bowl - it had a pretty good track record for producing exciting games. RIP.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans, LA - December 16, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#20 Troy loses to #40 North Texas by 9.1069
TeamTroy (10-2)North Texas (9-4)
SOS0.218280.513426
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30 (13.0968)35.923077 (36.887683)
YPG416.416667 (181.79086)467 (479.539884)
TCPG1.416667 (2.214873)1.692308 (1.646866)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.5 (27.3602)33.846154 (32.937317)
YPG340.083333 (531.699887)431.153846 (419.576503)
TFPG1.75 (0.76398)1.076923 (1.105841)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.34%87.91%
Defense58.81%89.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.923077 (23.017058)26.711538 (32.123942)


AutoNation Cure Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 16, 2017 - 2:30 PM
#82 Western Kentucky beats #83 Georgia State by 3.0181
TeamWestern Kentucky (6-6)Georgia State (6-5)
SOS0.1641780.095271
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.166667 (8.591982)19.727273 (3.758874)
YPG400.583333 (131.533941)384.727273 (73.306704)
TCPG1.666667 (2.786073)1.818182 (3.289924)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.833333 (44.855781)25.454545 (46.058931)
YPG373.666667 (624.637641)391.363636 (708.156063)
TFPG1.166667 (0.383082)1.181818 (0.225186)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.65%58.6%
Defense82.07%74.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.810606 (27.325456)23.280303 (24.307327)


Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 16, 2017 - 3:30 PM
#19 Boise State beats #44 Oregon by 5.9391
TeamBoise State (10-3)Oregon (7-5)
SOS0.7147650.598176
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.076923 (45.854924)36.666667 (43.86624)
YPG400.307692 (572.251855)454.333333 (543.542592)
TCPG0.769231 (0.438823)1.75 (1.406384)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.461538 (12.813634)28.25 (22.703056)
YPG336.692308 (192.072861)359.833333 (289.179339)
TFPG1.692308 (2.419205)1.833333 (2.193312)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.58%92.23%
Defense76.24%89.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.163462 (34.27899)29.564103 (28.339937)


Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, NM - December 16, 2017 - 4:30 PM
#60 Marshall beats #56 Colorado State by 12.1299
TeamMarshall (7-5)Colorado State (7-5)
SOS0.4601470.278725
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.333333 (24.234409)33.833333 (18.860392)
YPG369.75 (340.278707)501 (279.28245)
TCPG1.75 (1.889486)1.333333 (1.9234)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.25 (20.784341)27.5 (39.670125)
YPG337.666667 (364.580726)425.833333 (614.285875)
TFPG1.25 (1.150368)1.333333 (0.743267)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.39%77.18%
Defense65.15%73.8%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.916667 (31.952267)26.541667 (19.822366)


Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, AL - December 16, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#81 Middle Tennessee beats #42 Arkansas State by 13.4749
TeamMiddle Tennessee (6-6)Arkansas State (7-4)
SOS0.3378030.058885
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.75 (16.721249)38.545455 (4.539498)
YPG396.833333 (268.102981)498.727273 (58.735111)
TCPG1.666667 (2.207323)2 (3.76446)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.25 (32.116555)24.909091 (46.884638)
YPG348.583333 (461.661675)381 (717.12963)
TFPG0.666667 (0.450404)1.909091 (0.224834)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense71.28%88.33%
Defense79.51%74.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.829545 (31.802943)31.397727 (18.328026)


Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, FL - December 19, 2017 - 7:00 PM
#73 Akron loses to #17 Florida Atlantic by 7.4919
TeamAkron (7-6)Florida Atlantic (10-3)
SOS0.5669930.526259
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.615385 (26.779516)39.846154 (41.938794)
YPG329.461538 (373.604772)491.769231 (517.595967)
TCPG1.307692 (1.13248)1 (0.947482)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.307692 (22.78283)24.230769 (22.958218)
YPG431.846154 (373.984815)408.307692 (386.864189)
TFPG2.076923 (2.355202)2 (2.105036)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.92%92.6%
Defense69.62%67.82%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score23.923077 (24.868867)33.076923 (32.360812)


DXL Frisco Bowl
Frisco, TX - December 20, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#69 Louisiana Tech loses to #50 SMU by 14.7966
TeamLouisiana Tech (6-6)SMU (7-5)
SOS0.4272920.625229
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.75 (24.56929)40.166667 (50.22673)
YPG406.833333 (347.673257)494.083333 (617.830457)
TCPG1.25 (1.43177)1.083333 (0.812004)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.666667 (30.544427)35.5 (26.608741)
YPG394.083333 (451.389355)486.666667 (364.777107)
TFPG1.833333 (1.566737)1.916667 (2.396711)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.76%92.91%
Defense77.33%83.37%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.125 (25.589016)33.416667 (40.385578)


Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL - December 21, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#80 Temple beats #51 Florida Intl by 7.8407
TeamTemple (6-6)Florida Intl (8-4)
SOS0.5226310.364835
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.833333 (25.95734)27.5 (20.065925)
YPG387.583333 (405.12613)403.583333 (294.482651)
TCPG1.75 (1.670792)1.5 (1.905495)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.666667 (26.414418)28.5 (36.204405)
YPG391.833333 (374.098173)416.083333 (528.563141)
TFPG1.25 (1.306578)1.416667 (1.033699)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense73.23%77.87%
Defense80.7%78.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.666667 (31.080872)27.583333 (23.240172)


Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, Bahamas - December 22, 2017 - 12:30 PM
#47 UAB loses to #39 Ohio by 16.1217
TeamUAB (8-4)Ohio (8-4)
SOS00.271212
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.583333 (0)38.916667 (21.109334)
YPG364.083333 (0)430.916667 (233.739542)
TCPG1.25 (2.5)1.75 (2.550758)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.333333 (48.666667)25.75 (37.532582)
YPG357.833333 (715.666667)373.166667 (543.918777)
TFPG1.583333 (0)1.416667 (0.768434)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense92.86%103.21%
Defense77.72%78.86%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.666667 (18.766291)31.625 (34.888)


Famous Idaho Potato Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, ID - December 22, 2017 - 4:00 PM
#41 Central Michigan loses to #55 Wyoming by 4.158
TeamCentral Michigan (8-4)Wyoming (7-5)
SOS0.3277930.343328
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.666667 (19.449051)22.333333 (15.335317)
YPG391.916667 (256.93508)286.916667 (197.013051)
TCPG1.916667 (2.576794)1.166667 (1.532235)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.666667 (35.85104)17.833333 (23.421301)
YPG379.25 (509.86901)332.75 (437.015216)
TFPG2.583333 (1.693597)2.5 (1.71664)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.51%88.96%
Defense80.36%61.25%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score23.75 (21.435176)24.5 (25.593179)


Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, AL - December 23, 2017 - 12:00 PM
#63 Texas Tech beats #16 South Florida by 22.8394
TeamTexas Tech (6-6)South Florida (9-2)
SOS0.6417850.170464
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.333333 (44.069237)38.272727 (13.048244)
YPG468.416667 (601.245581)508.636364 (173.408378)
TCPG1.333333 (0.95524)1.090909 (1.809897)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.75 (22.746653)22.545455 (37.404532)
YPG434 (310.93062)342.545455 (568.307572)
TFPG2.25 (2.888033)2 (0.681856)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense83.77%86%
Defense83.61%75.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.439394 (40.736885)35.011364 (17.897448)


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX - December 23, 2017 - 3:30 PM
#15 San Diego State beats #30 Army by 3.015
TeamSan Diego State (10-2)Army (9-3)
SOS0.4050390.380218
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.416667 (24.639873)29.75 (22.622971)
YPG410.166667 (332.266993)385.416667 (293.084708)
TCPG0.916667 (1.090762)0.833333 (1.03297)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG18.416667 (21.914397)20.916667 (25.927547)
YPG303.5 (361.141327)355 (440.04522)
TFPG1.583333 (1.282624)1.083333 (0.823806)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.75%88.22%
Defense69.35%67.34%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.666667 (25.28371)24.083333 (22.268684)


Dollar General Knick-Knacks Bowl
Mobile, AL - December 23, 2017 - 7:00 PM
#35 Appalachian State loses to #10 Toledo by 14.7871
TeamAppalachian State (8-4)Toledo (11-2)
SOS0.1272570.394128
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.416667 (8.50501)39.153846 (30.863254)
YPG438.5 (111.604389)509.615385 (401.707385)
TCPG1.166667 (2.0364)1.153846 (1.398166)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.916667 (38.255235)25.615385 (31.039289)
YPG359.083333 (626.774931)379.384615 (459.717031)
TFPG1.833333 (0.466609)1.538462 (1.212702)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense87.09%87.81%
Defense69.75%77.16%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.516026 (19.772149)30.535256 (34.559244)


Hawai'i Aloha Bowl
Honolulu, HI - December 24, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#29 Fresno State beats #48 Houston by 0.9655
TeamFresno State (9-4)Houston (7-4)
SOS0.5487690.562798
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.692308 (29.295822)28.363636 (31.925996)
YPG386.846154 (424.578354)436.090909 (490.862183)
TCPG0.846154 (0.763622)1.909091 (1.669317)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.230769 (15.550114)23 (20.111292)
YPG319 (287.885378)417.545455 (365.103416)
TFPG1.461538 (1.604094)1.727273 (1.944211)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.86%74.33%
Defense61.73%62.95%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.846154 (24.703557)22.797203 (23.738055)


Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX - December 26, 2017 - 1:30 PM
#66 Utah beats #59 West Virginia by 1.873
TeamUtah (6-6)West Virginia (7-5)
SOS0.6374880.587413
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.5 (37.611792)36.25 (42.587443)
YPG417.666667 (532.514976)485.083333 (569.888512)
TCPG2 (1.450048)1.833333 (1.512819)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.916667 (17.340157)31.583333 (26.061746)
YPG353.833333 (256.537659)452.5 (373.391235)
TFPG1.916667 (2.443704)1.416667 (1.664337)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.72%85.41%
Defense77.25%79.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.541667 (31.836769)30.083333 (29.9638)


Quick Lane Motor City Bowl
Detroit, MI - December 26, 2017 - 5:15 PM
#68 Duke beats #37 Northern Illinois by 6.848
TeamDuke (6-6)Northern Illinois (8-4)
SOS0.5892440.404611
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.75 (30.346066)30.166667 (24.41153)
YPG378.083333 (445.566671)384.333333 (311.010989)
TCPG1.5 (1.232268)2 (2.381556)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.75 (17.046374)20.833333 (24.807875)
YPG335.416667 (275.548817)328 (390.575184)
TFPG1.583333 (1.865939)1.75 (1.416139)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.84%89.7%
Defense70.7%72.59%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score23.291667 (27.576971)25.458333 (20.728952)


Cactus Bowl
Phoeniz, AZ - December 26, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#58 Kansas State loses to #79 UCLA by 23.1893
TeamKansas State (7-5)UCLA (6-6)
SOS0.4838860.881291
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.083333 (31.049352)33.75 (59.487143)
YPG368.333333 (356.462687)465.666667 (820.775685)
TCPG1 (1.032228)1.75 (0.415482)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.833333 (26.66589)36.75 (8.725112)
YPG432.416667 (446.352591)488.75 (116.038048)
TFPG1.833333 (1.774249)1 (1.762582)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense99.55%82.83%
Defense68.28%85.93%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.416667 (19.887232)29.791667 (43.076516)


Walk-On's Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA - December 27, 2017 - 1:30 PM
#36 Southern Mississippi loses to #71 Florida State by 31.2795
TeamSouthern Mississippi (8-4)Florida State (6-6)
SOS0.1890360.829701
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.5 (11.531196)26.666667 (44.25072)
YPG438.416667 (165.753066)343.583333 (570.142871)
TCPG1.5 (2.432892)1.75 (0.596047)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23 (37.304344)21.916667 (7.464773)
YPG321.916667 (522.125655)337 (114.781526)
TFPG1.5 (0.567108)1.166667 (1.935969)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense79.51%88.7%
Defense81.65%74.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.208333 (9.497984)24.833333 (40.777532)


New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, NY - December 27, 2017 - 5:15 PM
#46 Iowa beats #49 Boston College by 4.3039
TeamIowa (7-5)Boston College (7-5)
SOS0.9643710.922339
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.333333 (54.64769)26.083333 (48.115351)
YPG339.833333 (655.450823)387 (713.890386)
TCPG1.583333 (0.112825)1.416667 (0.22004)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.916667 (1.419222)22.5 (3.494745)
YPG355.333333 (25.320343)397.916667 (61.805213)
TFPG1.916667 (3.696756)2.083333 (3.843079)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.28%77.03%
Defense64.06%64.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.416667 (29.071218)23 (24.767287)


Foster Farms SANS-Francisco Bowl
Santa Clara, CA - December 27, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#53 Arizona loses to #65 Purdue by 12.0696
TeamArizona (7-5)Purdue (6-6)
SOS0.4647910.74954
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG41.833333 (38.887514)24.166667 (36.227767)
YPG494.5 (459.678299)390.416667 (585.265817)
TCPG1.666667 (1.78403)1.333333 (0.667893)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.083333 (36.483414)19.333333 (9.684453)
YPG463.583333 (496.227945)370.916667 (185.799577)
TFPG2 (1.859164)1.583333 (2.373543)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense96.68%70.74%
Defense84.02%59.57%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.583333 (24.285984)29.125 (36.35559)


Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Houston, TX - December 27, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#62 Texas beats #52 Missouri by 7.4872
TeamTexas (6-6)Missouri (7-5)
SOS0.6731390.517899
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.166667 (39.266442)39.333333 (40.741388)
YPG408.333333 (549.730183)511.5 (529.810677)
TCPG1.5 (0.980583)1.75 (1.687354)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.666667 (14.163977)31.75 (30.613414)
YPG363.583333 (237.682424)425.25 (410.026901)
TFPG1.833333 (2.468176)1.416667 (1.467381)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.63%87.88%
Defense68.11%85.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.458333 (34.939928)30.5 (27.452682)


Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grumman USNA Bowl
Annapolis, MD - December 28, 2017 - 1:30 PM
#75 Virginia loses to #70 Navy by 16.6062
TeamVirginia (6-6)Navy (6-6)
SOS0.6221780.867029
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.833333 (29.657151)28.916667 (50.143177)
YPG356.166667 (443.198129)426.75 (740.009252)
TCPG1.333333 (1.007525)1.583333 (0.421075)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.666667 (20.150507)27.916667 (7.424214)
YPG358.666667 (271.024315)386.583333 (102.808745)
TFPG1.5 (1.866534)1.083333 (1.878563)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense76.48%77.44%
Defense84.97%82.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.875 (18.540683)27.791667 (35.146842)


Camping World Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 28, 2017 - 5:15 PM
#22 Virginia Tech loses to #23 Oklahoma State by 3.6933
TeamVirginia Tech (9-3)Oklahoma State (9-3)
SOS0.5466160.568181
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.75 (31.43042)46.25 (52.556743)
YPG404.083333 (441.756831)575.666667 (654.165725)
TCPG1 (0.906768)1.75 (1.511367)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG13.5 (12.241368)30.083333 (25.98111)
YPG305.25 (276.790932)400.25 (345.67111)
TFPG1.583333 (1.730951)1.833333 (2.08333)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.31%91.82%
Defense50.54%85.9%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.416667 (28.705765)29.875 (32.399055)


Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX - December 28, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#28 Stanford beats #18 TCU by 10.0494
TeamStanford (9-4)TCU (10-3)
SOS0.8638330.635943
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32 (55.285312)33.153846 (42.167913)
YPG389.923077 (673.656843)414 (526.560804)
TCPG0.769231 (0.209488)1.076923 (0.784123)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.461538 (5.844707)17.615385 (12.826008)
YPG398.769231 (108.59842)328.538462 (239.213453)
TFPG1.923077 (3.322435)1.384615 (1.761073)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense93.79%91.52%
Defense61.51%61.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.807692 (34.05566)27.307692 (24.00631)


San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 28, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#26 Washington State loses to #27 Michigan State by 4.7361
TeamWashington State (9-3)Michigan State (9-3)
SOS0.6364630.833199
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.416667 (39.991092)23.083333 (38.466021)
YPG445.833333 (567.512842)378.333333 (630.45391)
TCPG2.416667 (1.757096)1.666667 (0.556003)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.416667 (17.752724)20.25 (6.755441)
YPG313.583333 (227.998289)297.416667 (99.218795)
TFPG2.25 (2.864084)1.75 (2.916197)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.53%69.73%
Defense88.99%77.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.833333 (23.373266)23.75 (28.109372)


Belk Queen City Bowl
Charlotte, NC - December 29, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#45 Wake Forest beats #57 Texas A&M by 9.709
TeamWake Forest (7-5)Texas A&M (7-5)
SOS0.7778440.657657
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.666667 (52.374829)31.083333 (40.884344)
YPG450.75 (701.226366)389.583333 (512.424413)
TCPG0.916667 (0.407286)1.333333 (0.912915)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.333333 (11.700216)28.666667 (19.627665)
YPG444.25 (197.385606)388.666667 (266.114625)
TFPG1.5 (2.333532)1.666667 (2.19219)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense85.36%91.18%
Defense67.74%84.29%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.166667 (36.001247)28.708333 (26.29228)


Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX - December 29, 2017 - 3:00 PM
#33 NC State loses to #54 Arizona State by 5.4789
TeamNC State (8-4)Arizona State (7-5)
SOS0.7250990.824819
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.583333 (44.351889)31.916667 (52.650946)
YPG449.25 (651.501452)427.583333 (705.357715)
TCPG1 (0.549802)0.916667 (0.321165)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.75 (13.6076)31.25 (10.948813)
YPG377.166667 (207.366988)446.75 (156.524224)
TFPG1.416667 (2.054447)1.333333 (2.199517)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.8%85.31%
Defense75%79.94%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.916667 (27.650351)28.333333 (33.129273)


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN - December 29, 2017 - 4:30 PM
#64 Kentucky loses to #25 Northwestern by 5.6481
TeamKentucky (7-5)Northwestern (9-3)
SOS0.6522360.653257
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.75 (33.590154)29.666667 (38.759915)
YPG350.833333 (457.65226)405.166667 (529.355922)
TCPG1.083333 (0.753489)1.5 (1.040229)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.583333 (19.880509)19.833333 (13.754139)
YPG425.666667 (296.063085)358.833333 (248.845893)
TFPG1.5 (1.956708)2 (2.613028)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense83.88%83.68%
Defense76.74%63.17%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score22.791667 (23.672147)29.125 (29.320212)


NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Tucson, AZ - December 29, 2017 - 5:30 PM
#76 New Mexico State loses to #74 Utah State by 9.8214
TeamNew Mexico State (6-6)Utah State (6-6)
SOS0.2706370.389348
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.583333 (16.012689)31 (24.139576)
YPG453.75 (245.603078)393.75 (306.61155)
TCPG2.166667 (3.160573)1.833333 (2.239057)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.5 (44.491143)27 (32.975208)
YPG397.833333 (580.329827)402.416667 (491.473085)
TFPG2.083333 (1.127654)2.166667 (1.687175)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.51%89.98%
Defense87.62%76.68%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.291667 (24.493949)30.75 (34.31536)


Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX - December 29, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#13 USC loses to #7 Ohio State by 11.6822
TeamUSC (11-2)Ohio State (11-2)
SOS0.7769190.842678
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.538462 (53.667174)42.461538 (71.562809)
YPG489.538462 (760.663464)523.615385 (882.47833)
TCPG1.769231 (0.789364)1.384615 (0.435661)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.307692 (11.737493)19.923077 (6.268677)
YPG404.769231 (180.59265)292.307692 (91.972862)
TFPG1.846154 (2.868624)1.538462 (2.592855)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.63%92.68%
Defense74.28%77.89%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.230769 (29.967925)34.384615 (41.650151)


TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL - December 30, 2017 - 12:00 PM
#31 Louisville loses to #32 Mississippi State by 7.5338
TeamLouisville (8-4)Mississippi State (8-4)
SOS0.5695370.73341
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39 (44.423886)32.083333 (47.060475)
YPG560.5 (638.450977)419.833333 (615.81993)
TCPG1.416667 (1.219645)1.583333 (0.844202)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.083333 (23.316746)20.416667 (10.885758)
YPG386.75 (332.963131)302 (161.02036)
TFPG1.666667 (1.898457)1.416667 (2.077995)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense79.52%87.34%
Defense80.03%77.26%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.708333 (27.654822)29.583333 (35.18861)


AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN - December 30, 2017 - 12:30 PM
#43 Iowa State beats #11 Memphis by 1.0051
TeamIowa State (7-5)Memphis (10-2)
SOS0.6168610.528099
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.916667 (36.90885)47.666667 (50.345438)
YPG389.333333 (480.329099)548.166667 (578.972537)
TCPG0.75 (0.574709)1.333333 (1.258403)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21 (16.091838)33.416667 (31.538717)
YPG368.416667 (282.309587)476.333333 (449.564353)
TFPG1.666667 (2.056203)2.5 (2.640495)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense87.82%99.38%
Defense65.14%80.18%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.666667 (34.223783)34.333333 (33.218638)


Playstation Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ - December 30, 2017 - 4:00 PM
#9 Washington loses to #8 Penn State by 14.2832
TeamWashington (10-2)Penn State (10-2)
SOS0.5335130.748286
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.916667 (39.391043)41.583333 (62.232452)
YPG411.666667 (439.259037)453.25 (678.321259)
TCPG0.833333 (0.777478)0.833333 (0.419523)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG14.5 (13.528123)15.5 (7.803134)
YPG277.416667 (258.822537)329.333333 (165.795621)
TFPG1.75 (1.867296)2 (2.993144)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense102.49%104.85%
Defense59.73%53.79%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.208333 (23.597089)28.041667 (37.880288)


Capital One Orange Bowl
Miami, FL - December 30, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#6 Wisconsin beats #12 Miami by 4.682
TeamWisconsin (12-1)Miami (10-2)
SOS0.7014670.708179
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.769231 (47.376002)29.5 (41.782561)
YPG416.153846 (583.83638)405.916667 (574.923318)
TCPG1.769231 (1.056348)1.25 (0.729553)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG13.153846 (7.853714)19.916667 (11.624203)
YPG253.230769 (151.195482)359.416667 (209.770662)
TFPG2 (2.805868)2.5 (3.540895)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense92.74%83.06%
Defense59.36%63.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.842949 (29.500103)21.326923 (24.818138)


Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 1, 2018 - 12:00 PM
#34 Michigan beats #38 South Carolina by 7.1057
TeamMichigan (8-4)South Carolina (8-4)
SOS0.7894890.672693
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.75 (40.658684)24.083333 (32.40138)
YPG354.916667 (560.405609)340.166667 (457.655471)
TCPG1.333333 (0.561363)1.166667 (0.763716)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG18.25 (7.683652)20.833333 (13.637792)
YPG268.583333 (113.079492)374.583333 (245.207494)
TFPG1.166667 (1.842141)1.916667 (2.578657)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.92%80.91%
Defense77.66%63.56%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score23.291667 (27.148238)21.166667 (20.042516)


Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA - January 1, 2018 - 12:30 PM
#1 UCF loses to #14 Auburn by 13.8939
TeamUCF (12-0)Auburn (10-3)
SOS0.5241880.873062
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG49.416667 (51.807247)34.384615 (60.039802)
YPG540.416667 (566.559863)454 (792.740296)
TCPG1.166667 (1.110228)1.307692 (0.331992)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.166667 (23.949204)17.307692 (4.394008)
YPG428.5 (407.770884)317.615385 (80.634923)
TFPG2.416667 (2.533575)1.384615 (2.41771)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense104.5%86.56%
Defense67.12%62.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.362179 (28.100628)29.775641 (41.994503)


Citrus Bowl Presented by Overton's
Orlando, FL - January 1, 2018 - 1:00 PM
#21 Notre Dame beats #24 LSU by 24.6716
TeamNotre Dame (9-3)LSU (9-3)
SOS10.628008
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.333333 (70.666667)28.083333 (35.273116)
YPG455 (910)412.083333 (517.58326)
TCPG1.25 (0)0.666667 (0.495989)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.833333 (0)18.75 (13.9497)
YPG366.666667 (0)311.666667 (231.875013)
TFPG1.666667 (3.333333)1.333333 (1.674688)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense88.75%77.89%
Defense68.05%68.75%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.041667 (42.308183)24.958333 (17.636558)


(SEMI) Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwest Mutual
Pasadena, CA - January 1, 2018 - 5:00 PM
#4 Georgia beats #5 Oklahoma by 0.6741
TeamGeorgia (12-1)Oklahoma (12-1)
SOS0.7554750.678948
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.923077 (52.767023)44.923077 (61.000866)
YPG433.615385 (655.171165)583.307692 (792.071182)
TCPG1 (0.48905)0.923077 (0.592711)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG13.230769 (6.470508)25 (16.0526)
YPG271 (132.53255)384.692308 (247.01247)
TFPG1.384615 (2.092085)1.307692 (1.77571)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense92.04%88.02%
Defense55.8%74.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.961538 (34.409812)29.076923 (33.735687)


(SEMI) Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA - January 1, 2018 - 8:45 PM
#2 Alabama loses to #3 Clemson by 1.9026
TeamAlabama (11-1)Clemson (12-1)
SOS0.6585690.757665
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.083333 (51.478144)35.384615 (53.619369)
YPG470.666667 (619.932952)448.384615 (679.450659)
TCPG0.666667 (0.455241)1.076923 (0.521952)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG11.5 (7.852913)12.769231 (6.188863)
YPG257.833333 (176.064586)277.923077 (134.700978)
TFPG1.666667 (2.19523)1.461538 (2.214713)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense94.9%90.19%
Defense50.97%52.51%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.926282 (28.833503)23.442308 (30.736141)


(FINAL) CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T
Atlanta, GA - January 8, 2018 - 8:00 PM
#5 Oklahoma loses to #3 Clemson by 1.2411
TeamOklahoma (12-1)Clemson (12-1)
SOS0.6789480.757665
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG44.923077 (61.000866)35.384615 (53.619369)
YPG583.307692 (792.071182)448.384615 (679.450659)
TCPG0.923077 (0.592711)1.076923 (0.521952)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25 (16.0526)12.769231 (6.188863)
YPG384.692308 (247.01247)277.923077 (134.700978)
TFPG1.307692 (1.77571)1.461538 (2.214713)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense88.02%90.19%
Defense74.27%52.51%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.846154 (33.594865)30.192308 (34.835985)


Sunday, December 10, 2017

Week 15 (Pre-Bowl) Rankings


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000UCF (12-0)10.000000
20.998841Alabama (11-1)23.19E-4
30.982395Clemson (12-1)33.11E-4
40.97734Georgia (12-1)42.91E-4
50.967925Oklahoma (12-1)53.23E-4
60.965733Wisconsin (12-1)62.94E-4
70.934632Ohio State (11-2)75.26E-4
80.91073Penn State (10-2)82.73E-4
90.887634Washington (10-2)92.44E-4
100.854238Toledo (11-2)102.22E-4
110.838534Memphis (10-2)11-1.42E-4
120.83702Miami (10-2)122.04E-4
130.83635USC (11-2)131.95E-4
140.832647Auburn (10-3)142.11E-4
150.832233San Diego State (10-2)151.99E-4
160.820549South Florida (9-2)161.11E-4
170.81518Florida Atlantic (10-3)171.6E-5
180.805213TCU (10-3)181.76E-4
190.803942Boise State (10-3)191.85E-4
200.801377Troy (10-2)201.83E-4
210.794785Notre Dame (9-3)21-1.05E-4
220.788385Virginia Tech (9-3)221.88E-4
230.787753Oklahoma State (9-3)231.66E-4
240.778149LSU (9-3)241.68E-4
250.753931Northwestern (9-3)251.63E-4
260.751854Washington State (9-3)261.52E-4
270.743516Michigan State (9-3)271.39E-4
280.740745Stanford (9-4)281.42E-4
290.730232Fresno State (9-4)291.39E-4
300.724053Army (9-3)320.023864
310.723392Louisville (8-4)301.39E-4
320.707969Mississippi State (8-4)311.24E-4
330.692882NC State (8-4)339.6E-5
340.691012Michigan (8-4)341.02E-4
350.683307Appalachian State (8-4)351.09E-4
360.667214Southern Mississippi (8-4)361.34E-4
370.659984Northern Illinois (8-4)371.15E-4
380.658367South Carolina (8-4)388.7E-5
390.657796Ohio (8-4)391.15E-4
400.649008North Texas (9-4)403.36E-4
410.647089Central Michigan (8-4)419.4E-5
420.641791Arkansas State (7-4)426.2E-5
430.637525Iowa State (7-5)437.7E-5
440.628228Oregon (7-5)447.3E-5
450.625561Wake Forest (7-5)456.4E-5
460.624971Iowa (7-5)469.0E-5
470.624702UAB (8-4)471.03E-4
480.619765Houston (7-4)48-2.7E-4
490.618897Boston College (7-5)494.8E-5
500.6145SMU (7-5)50-2.62E-4
510.609022Florida Intl (8-4)512.6E-5
520.604774Missouri (7-5)525.7E-5
530.604495Arizona (7-5)535.2E-5
540.596224Arizona State (7-5)544.6E-5
550.595287Wyoming (7-5)554.4E-5
560.5946Colorado State (7-5)564.5E-5
570.593704Texas A&M (7-5)574.6E-5
580.589922Kansas State (7-5)584.4E-5
590.582565West Virginia (7-5)593.9E-5
600.582028Marshall (7-5)606.0E-6
610.580295UT San Antonio (6-5)618.0E-5
620.564477Texas (6-6)623.0E-5
630.560156Texas Tech (6-6)631.2E-5
640.557374Kentucky (7-5)653.1E-5
650.551677Purdue (6-6)662.0E-5
660.550197Utah (6-6)672.0E-5
670.545065Western Michigan (6-6)684.2E-5
680.544829Duke (6-6)692.88E-4
690.531046Louisiana Tech (6-6)702.7E-5
700.528985Navy (6-6)64-0.028996
710.526035Florida State (6-6)711.4E-5
720.524454Buffalo (6-6)722.84E-4
730.521064Akron (7-6)738.0E-6
740.519269Utah State (6-6)74-5.0E-6
750.510695Virginia (6-6)754.0E-6
760.506354New Mexico State (6-6)761.0E-6
770.499058Ole Miss (6-6)77-1.6E-5
780.493321Georgia Tech (5-6)78-3.0E-6
790.491625UCLA (6-6)79-3.9E-5
800.483981Temple (6-6)80-7.0E-5
810.481777Middle Tennessee (6-6)81-3.1E-5
820.478801Western Kentucky (6-6)82-3.4E-5
830.477406Georgia State (6-5)83-3.2E-5
840.462433Tulane (5-7)84-7.7E-5
850.462394Indiana (5-7)85-2.4E-5
860.454246Eastern Michigan (5-7)862.59E-4
870.449048California (5-7)87-4.7E-5
880.443622Minnesota (5-7)88-4.0E-5
890.442126Miami (OH) (5-7)89-6.0E-5
900.438563Pittsburgh (5-7)90-3.0E-5
910.436148Colorado (5-7)91-5.7E-5
920.430525Air Force (5-7)921.0E-6
930.429711UNLV (5-7)93-5.3E-5
940.410078Florida (4-7)95-7.2E-5
950.410078Vanderbilt (5-7)94-7.5E-5
960.38339UMass (4-8)96-9.2E-5
970.369273Syracuse (4-8)97-1.0E-4
980.366556Old Dominion (5-7)98-9.9E-5
990.366217Louisiana (5-7)99-1.26E-4
1000.3594Arkansas (4-8)100-1.08E-4
1010.353447Maryland (4-8)101-1.18E-4
1020.351575Idaho (4-8)102-1.11E-4
1030.349467Nebraska (4-8)103-1.05E-4
1040.339551South Alabama (4-8)104-1.21E-4
1050.335325Louisiana Monroe (4-8)105-1.42E-4
1060.327823Tennessee (4-8)106-1.3E-4
1070.322229Cincinnati (4-8)107-4.23E-4
1080.311039Rutgers (4-8)108-1.17E-4
1090.299347BYU (4-9)109-1.5E-4
1100.293601Nevada (3-9)110-1.55E-4
1110.289909North Carolina (3-9)111-1.58E-4
1120.27341Hawaii (3-9)112-1.64E-4
1130.249964New Mexico (3-9)113-2.03E-4
1140.242017Connecticut (3-9)114-2.8E-4
1150.232047Tulsa (2-10)115-4.94E-4
1160.220958East Carolina (3-9)116-2.85E-4
1170.202522Georgia Southern (2-10)117-2.09E-4
1180.195431Bowling Green (2-10)118-1.93E-4
1190.174274Illinois (2-10)119-2.2E-4
1200.152386Ball State (2-10)120-2.23E-4
1210.148132Kent State (2-10)121-2.37E-4
1220.139412Texas State (2-10)122-2.55E-4
1230.137491Baylor (1-11)123-2.41E-4
1240.085564Oregon State (1-11)124-2.94E-4
1250.083807Charlotte (1-11)125-2.95E-4
1260.072734Rice (1-11)1261.4E-5
1270.067523Kansas (1-11)127-3.06E-4
1280.053286San Jose State (2-11)128-3.28E-4
1290.000000UTEP (0-12)1290.000000


I noticed when assembling my preliminary bowl predictions that I have left UAB's FBS flag unchecked last season, so they weren't showing up in the rankings this year (they never cracked the top 25 anyway), but it also meant their opponents weren't being credited with the proper SOS for playing an FBS team. That's been fixed as of these rankings. I don't think it made any meaningful difference this late in the season, but my sincere apologies to both UAB and their opponents for short-changing them.

Monday, December 04, 2017

Week 14 Top 25


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000UCF (12-0)30.020595
20.998556Alabama (11-1)20.007621
30.982268Clemson (12-1)40.04298
40.976907Georgia (12-1)50.041495
50.967529Oklahoma (12-1)60.040676
60.965849Wisconsin (12-1)1-0.03415
70.934781Ohio State (11-2)80.031441
80.911524Penn State (10-2)70.007229
90.888768Washington (10-2)100.007003
100.855332Toledo (11-2)140.024893
110.840604Memphis (10-2)12-0.025046
120.838823Miami (10-2)9-0.044409
130.838141USC (11-2)170.029776
140.834399Auburn (10-3)11-0.041974
150.834119San Diego State (10-2)150.007136
160.822651South Florida (9-2)160.007624
170.815375Florida Atlantic (10-3)230.041313
180.807357TCU (10-3)13-0.040925
190.806115Boise State (10-3)240.034403
200.803216Troy (10-2)210.025929
210.797377Notre Dame (9-3)180.006086
220.790785Virginia Tech (9-3)200.00668
230.790079Oklahoma State (9-3)190.005276
240.780269LSU (9-3)220.005984
250.756782Northwestern (9-3)270.005768

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.015 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Week 13 Top 25


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Wisconsin (12-0)20.059258
20.990935Alabama (11-1)1-0.009064
30.979404UCF (11-0)30.05155
40.939287Clemson (11-1)50.064491
50.935412Georgia (11-1)60.064179
60.926852Oklahoma (11-1)70.067515
70.904295Penn State (10-2)90.076096
80.90334Ohio State (10-2)80.06156
90.883233Miami (10-1)4-0.019087
100.881765Washington (10-2)120.074424
110.876374Auburn (10-2)110.063008
120.86565Memphis (10-1)140.068686
130.848283TCU (10-2)150.060795
140.830439Toledo (10-2)200.064584
150.826982San Diego State (10-2)190.060859
160.815026South Florida (9-2)10-0.005572
170.808365USC (10-2)160.029612
180.791291Notre Dame (9-3)13-0.01346
190.784802Oklahoma State (9-3)240.071367
200.784105Virginia Tech (9-3)210.061611
210.777286Troy (9-2)290.08085
220.774284LSU (9-3)270.074858
230.774061Florida Atlantic (9-3)220.057523
240.771711Boise State (9-3)17-0.006719
250.771247Stanford (9-3)250.067788

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.015 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Week 12 Top 25


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Alabama (11-0)10.000000
20.940741Wisconsin (11-0)2-0.001312
30.927854UCF (10-0)30.004767
40.902321Miami (10-0)4-0.001358
50.874796Clemson (10-1)60.018726
60.871232Georgia (10-1)50.010198
70.859337Oklahoma (10-1)70.012822
80.841779Ohio State (9-2)80.011163
90.828198Penn State (9-2)99.76E-4
100.820599South Florida (9-1)10-0.003629
110.813365Auburn (9-2)130.015713
120.80734Washington (9-2)110.005234
130.804751Notre Dame (9-2)120.006008
140.796964Memphis (9-1)150.013746
150.787487TCU (9-2)160.009933
160.778752USC (10-2)170.003265
170.77843Boise State (9-2)190.020643
180.768428Washington State (9-2)14-0.018056
190.766122San Diego State (9-2)200.012
200.765855Toledo (9-2)220.019017
210.722493Virginia Tech (8-3)260.014303
220.716537Florida Atlantic (8-3)280.0252
230.715021Mississippi State (8-3)270.012178
240.713435Oklahoma State (8-3)18-0.060754
250.703459Stanford (8-3)290.014833

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.015 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.