Chaos Rankings

Friday, December 17, 2010

Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

This year, I decided to just call it what it is. As usual, I'm calling bowls by whatever names I choose. I'm also trying something new with the predictions this year. What you see below is a table of data for each game showing what each team averages. Then I've scaled those values by each team's strength of schedule, so the values in parenthesis reflect how that team would be expected to perform against a team with a 0.500 SOS rating). It should be noted that this method has no basis in reality, and I haven't verified with past games that this is any more predictive than just using raw values, but it seems to make some intuitive sense. To obtain the predictions, I took the average of the points scored by a team and points allowed by their opponent. I've talked about the efficiency factor before. It's not used in any of my calculations, but it's a pretty telling statistic. Basically, how well to do you score and how well do you prevent your opponent from scoring. Since the name of the game is to outscore your opponent, in the end, the efficiency sort of rolls everything together. You rack up 700 yards per game, but turn the ball over a lot or always settle for a field goals? Chances are good you're going to lose to a team who only puts up 200 yards a game but never turns the ball over and almost always finds the end zone. It also indirectly takes non-offensive scoring and kick/punt returns into account because good field position will result in fewer offensive yards gained, but points are always points. I think most of the abbreviations used below are pretty self-explanatory, but just in case, TCPG and TFPG is turnovers committed per game and turnovers forced per game. Now, on with the catastrophe!

New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, N.M. - December 18, 2010 - 2:00 PM
#68 BYU beats #74 UTEP by 26.9276
TeamBYUUTEP
SOS0.64010.1191
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24 (30.7248)26.166667 (6.2329)
YPG354.166667 (453.404167)371 (88.3722)
TCPG1.583333 (1.139683)1.5 (2.6427)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.416667 (15.415717)25.416667 (44.779083)
YPG339 (244.0122)404.166667 (712.060833)
TFPG1.583333 (2.026983)1.166667 (0.2779)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.45%80.61%
Defense72.2%71.87%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.708333 (37.751942)23.791667 (10.824308)



uDrove Humanitarian Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, Idaho - December 18, 2010 - 5:30 PM
#18 Northern Illinois loses to #48 Fresno State by 6.5639
TeamNorthern IllinoisFresno State
SOS0.15480.4304
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.846154 (11.717169)30 (25.824)
YPG438.923077 (135.890585)369.916667 (318.424267)
TCPG1.076923 (1.820431)1.916667 (2.183467)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.076923 (32.247631)29.166667 (33.226667)
YPG332.615385 (562.253046)355.916667 (405.460267)
TFPG1.846154 (0.571569)1.083333 (0.932533)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense98.54%92.68%
Defense65.55%93.65%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.50641 (22.471918)24.538462 (29.035815)



R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans - December 18, 2010 - 9:00 PM
#44 Ohio beats #57 Troy by 0.867
TeamOhioTroy
SOS0.1920.2806
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28 (10.752)32.916667 (18.472833)
YPG327.25 (125.664)441.083333 (247.535967)
TCPG2.5 (4.04)2.5 (3.597)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.75 (35.148)31 (44.6028)
YPG332.666667 (537.589333)418.333333 (601.898)
TFPG2.083333 (0.8)2.25 (1.2627)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.78%85.29%
Defense74.72%84.69%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.5 (27.6774)27.333333 (26.810417)



Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, Fla. - December 21, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#27 Southern Miss loses to #59 Louisville by 7.5362
TeamSouthern MissLouisville
SOS0.30090.3794
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.583333 (22.61765)26 (19.7288)
YPG458.166667 (275.7247)375.833333 (285.182333)
TCPG1.333333 (1.864267)1.25 (1.5515)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.416667 (41.130383)18.666667 (23.169067)
YPG362.166667 (506.381433)304.666667 (378.152267)
TFPG2.083333 (1.25375)1.5 (1.1382)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense93.75%79.06%
Defense92.83%70.02%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.125 (22.893358)27.708333 (30.429592)



MAACO Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas - December 22, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#19 Utah loses to #3 Boise State by 14.786
TeamUtahBoise State
SOS0.44970.5553
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.583333 (32.00365)46.666667 (51.828)
YPG404.75 (364.03215)519.5 (576.9567)
TCPG1.916667 (2.109483)1.25 (1.11175)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.833333 (21.828567)13.583333 (12.081017)
YPG317.583333 (349.532217)259.25 (230.57695)
TFPG1.75 (1.57395)2 (2.2212)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense100.47%102.66%
Defense71.37%59.88%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.583333 (22.042333)33.25 (36.828283)



S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego - December 23, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#28 Navy loses to #34 San Diego State by 0.3119
TeamNavySan Diego State
SOS0.34710.3216
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.909091 (18.680291)35 (22.512)
YPG389.454545 (270.359345)448.833333 (288.6896)
TCPG1.272727 (1.661927)1.75 (2.3744)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.181818 (27.659218)22.75 (30.8672)
YPG359.545455 (469.494455)352.25 (477.9328)
TFPG1.636364 (1.135964)1.333333 (0.8576)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.96%89.12%
Defense67.33%73.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.829545 (24.773745)28.090909 (25.085609)



Sheraton Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu - December 24, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#15 Hawaii beats #23 Tulsa by 9.1502
TeamHawaiiTulsa
SOS0.38270.3167
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.923077 (30.557123)39.666667 (25.124867)
YPG496.846154 (380.286046)504.916667 (319.814217)
TCPG1.538462 (1.899385)1.416667 (1.936017)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.692308 (28.015923)29.916667 (40.884117)
YPG344.230769 (424.987308)443.583333 (606.200983)
TFPG2.769231 (2.119569)2.5 (1.5835)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.83%89.78%
Defense75.34%77.08%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.919872 (35.72062)31.179487 (26.570395)



Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Detroit - December 26, 2010 - 8:30 PM
#69 Florida International loses to #37 Toledo by 2.9138
TeamFlorida InternationalToledo
SOS0.34760.4183
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.333333 (19.697333)27.583333 (23.076217)
YPG402.333333 (279.702133)359.416667 (300.687983)
TCPG1.666667 (2.174667)1.666667 (1.939)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.916667 (35.120867)28.083333 (32.67215)
YPG363.333333 (474.077333)369.5 (429.8763)
TFPG1.75 (1.2166)2.75 (2.30065)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.48%87.71%
Defense84.67%86.86%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.208333 (26.184742)27.25 (29.098542)



AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Shreveport, La. - December 27, 2010 - 5:00 PM
#31 Air Force beats #70 Georgia Tech by 9.5546
TeamAir ForceGeorgia Tech
SOS0.50830.4105
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.25 (32.78535)27.583333 (22.645917)
YPG437.416667 (444.677783)414.916667 (340.646583)
TCPG1.416667 (1.39315)1.916667 (2.25975)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.25 (21.88065)26.166667 (30.8505)
YPG351.75 (345.91095)378.75 (446.54625)
TFPG1.5 (1.5249)1.75 (1.43675)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.26%75.98%
Defense72.29%78.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.208333 (31.817925)24.916667 (22.263283)



Insight Bowl
Tempe, Ariz. - December 28, 2010 - 10:00 PM
#14 Missouri beats #33 Iowa by 2.2965
TeamMissouriIowa
SOS0.70170.6787
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.333333 (42.5698)29.083333 (39.477717)
YPG401.083333 (562.88035)379.416667 (515.020183)
TCPG1.333333 (0.795467)0.75 (0.48195)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG15.166667 (9.048433)16.416667 (10.54935)
YPG350.5 (209.1083)317.083333 (203.75775)
TFPG2.25 (3.15765)1.833333 (2.488567)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.43%87.6%
Defense49.45%59.17%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score23.375 (26.559575)22.125 (24.263075)



Champs Sports Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, Fla. - December 28, 2010 - 6:30 PM
#22 West Virginia loses to #29 North Carolina State by 6.0687
TeamWest VirginiaNorth Carolina State
SOS0.49040.6381
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.666667 (26.154667)32.583333 (41.58285)
YPG376.583333 (369.352933)397.833333 (507.7149)
TCPG2 (2.0384)1.75 (1.26665)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG12.75 (12.9948)22.5 (16.2855)
YPG251.333333 (256.158933)340.5 (246.4539)
TFPG1.75 (1.7164)2 (2.5524)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.93%93.6%
Defense57.98%75.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.583333 (21.220083)22.666667 (27.288825)



Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman Beltway Bowl
Washington, D.C. - December 29, 2010 - 2:30 PM
#73 East Carolina beats #30 Maryland by 7.4674
TeamEast CarolinaMaryland
SOS0.69940.5379
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG38.166667 (53.387533)30.666667 (32.9912)
YPG446.5 (624.5642)342.416667 (368.37185)
TCPG2.083333 (1.2525)1 (0.9242)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.416667 (26.1021)22.333333 (20.640467)
YPG480.25 (288.7263)353.083333 (326.319617)
TFPG1.583333 (2.214767)2.083333 (2.24125)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.69%102.35%
Defense103.32%72.29%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.25 (37.014)37.041667 (29.54665)



Texas Bowl
Houston - December 29, 2010 - 6:00 PM
#53 Illinois beats #47 Baylor by 7.8137
TeamIllinoisBaylor
SOS0.74660.6381
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.083333 (47.906833)32.583333 (41.58285)
YPG385.75 (576.0019)478.5 (610.6617)
TCPG1.583333 (0.802433)1.5 (1.0857)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.25 (12.2899)29.833333 (21.593367)
YPG335.833333 (170.200333)427.25 (309.24355)
TFPG2.083333 (3.110833)1.666667 (2.127)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.05%77.82%
Defense82.52%79.8%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.958333 (34.7501)28.416667 (26.936375)



Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio - December 29, 2010 - 9:15 PM
#12 Oklahoma State beats #39 Arizona by 12.1601
TeamOklahoma StateArizona
SOS0.71830.6598
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG44.916667 (64.527283)29.75 (39.2581)
YPG537.583333 (772.292217)446.333333 (588.981467)
TCPG1.833333 (1.0329)1.5 (1.0206)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.75 (15.63435)21.583333 (14.6853)
YPG412.833333 (232.5903)342.75 (233.2071)
TFPG2.5 (3.5915)1.5 (1.9794)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.49%76.18%
Defense76.82%71.97%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.25 (39.606292)28.75 (27.446225)



Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
San Diego - December 30, 2010 - 10:00 PM
#20 Nebraska beats #72 Washington by 0.5978
TeamNebraskaWashington
SOS0.61590.8279
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.692308 (40.270385)22.083333 (36.565583)
YPG414.230769 (510.249462)364.5 (603.5391)
TCPG1.692308 (1.300031)1.416667 (0.487617)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.230769 (13.236677)31.166667 (10.727567)
YPG304.230769 (233.710077)401.166667 (138.081567)
TFPG1.769231 (2.179338)1.416667 (2.345717)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.2%69.24%
Defense64.73%88.79%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.929487 (25.498976)19.657051 (24.90113)



New Era Pinstripe Yankees Bowl
Bronx, N.Y. - December 30, 2010 - 3:20 PM
#52 Kansas State beats #58 Syracuse by 12.851
TeamKansas StateSyracuse
SOS0.56150.2966
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.583333 (37.714083)21 (12.4572)
YPG377.666667 (424.119667)308.25 (182.8539)
TCPG1.5 (1.3155)1.75 (2.4619)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.5 (24.9945)18.083333 (25.439633)
YPG441.333333 (387.049333)293.75 (413.2475)
TFPG1.833333 (2.058833)1.416667 (0.840367)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense101.63%77.86%
Defense73.8%70.35%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.833333 (31.576858)24.75 (18.72585)



Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tenn. - December 30, 2010 - 6:40 PM
#46 North Carolina loses to #67 Tennessee by 0.1005
TeamNorth CarolinaTennessee
SOS0.55950.589
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.166667 (31.5185)27 (31.806)
YPG400.333333 (447.973)365.833333 (430.951667)
TCPG1.833333 (1.615167)1.75 (1.4385)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.916667 (20.189583)24.666667 (20.276)
YPG355 (312.755)381.916667 (313.9355)
TFPG2 (2.238)2.166667 (2.552333)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.41%84.35%
Defense73.78%73.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.416667 (25.89725)24.958333 (25.997792)



Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Dallas - December 30, 2010 - 12:00 PM
#60 Army loses to #64 SMU by 11.9539
TeamArmySMU
SOS0.35380.6001
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.5 (19.459)26.615385 (31.943785)
YPG338.083333 (239.227767)416 (499.2832)
TCPG1.166667 (1.5078)1.769231 (1.415031)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.166667 (32.5254)26.384615 (21.102415)
YPG332 (429.0768)363.769231 (290.942631)
TFPG2.25 (1.5921)1.076923 (1.292523)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense92.96%73.12%
Defense86.63%82.89%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.942308 (20.280708)25.891026 (32.234592)



Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas - December 31, 2010 - 2:00 PM
#45 Notre Dame beats #41 Miami by 11.5977
TeamNotre DameMiami
SOS0.98140.705
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.75 (50.5421)27.083333 (38.1875)
YPG378.25 (742.4291)422.583333 (595.8425)
TCPG2 (0.0744)2.666667 (1.573333)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.5 (0.7626)19.666667 (11.603333)
YPG353.166667 (13.1378)317.333333 (187.226667)
TFPG1.75 (3.4349)2.25 (3.1725)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.8%73.25%
Defense66.34%70.83%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score22.708333 (31.072717)23.791667 (19.47505)



AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tenn. - December 31, 2010 - 3:30 PM
#49 Georgia beats #21 UCF by 19.4728
TeamGeorgiaUCF
SOS0.63770.2319
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.25 (43.68245)33.769231 (15.662169)
YPG393.75 (502.18875)384.230769 (178.206231)
TCPG1.166667 (0.845367)1.230769 (1.890708)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.083333 (16.726183)18 (27.6516)
YPG335.916667 (243.405217)318.076923 (488.629769)
TFPG2 (2.5508)1.615385 (0.749215)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense99.41%100.44%
Defense78.53%64.67%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.125 (35.667025)28.426282 (16.194176)



Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta - December 31, 2010 - 7:30 PM
#25 South Carolina beats #26 Florida State by 7.375
TeamSouth CarolinaFlorida State
SOS0.85990.7283
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32 (55.0336)31.769231 (46.275062)
YPG391.153846 (672.706385)386.923077 (563.592154)
TCPG1.615385 (0.452631)1.692308 (0.9196)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.923077 (6.423046)22.846154 (12.4146)
YPG357.923077 (100.290046)358.538462 (194.8298)
TFPG1.923077 (3.307308)1.769231 (2.577062)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense93.5%93.84%
Defense73.19%72.82%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.423077 (33.7241)27.346154 (26.349054)



Meineke Car Care Car-related Charlotte Bowl
Charlotte, N.C. - December 31, 2010 - 12:00 PM
#56 South Florida loses to #62 Clemson by 11.8932
TeamSouth FloridaClemson
SOS0.44840.7076
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.5 (21.0748)23.833333 (33.728933)
YPG312.083333 (279.876333)338.333333 (478.809333)
TCPG1.666667 (1.838667)1.75 (1.0234)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.5 (21.5124)17.75 (10.3802)
YPG319.75 (352.7482)323.666667 (189.280267)
TFPG1.416667 (1.270467)1.5 (2.1228)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.06%80.51%
Defense69.7%62.67%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score20.625 (15.7275)21.666667 (27.620667)



Outback Bowl
Tampa, Fla. - January 1, 2011 - 1:00 PM
#42 Florida beats #50 Penn State by 3.8333
TeamFloridaPenn State
SOS0.74280.7432
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.25 (43.4538)24.583333 (36.540667)
YPG356.833333 (530.1116)374.083333 (556.037467)
TCPG2.083333 (1.071667)1.333333 (0.6848)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.083333 (10.845267)22.583333 (11.5988)
YPG302.916667 (155.820333)352.5 (181.044)
TFPG2 (2.9712)1.25 (1.858)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense93.68%75.1%
Defense79.54%73.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.916667 (27.5263)22.833333 (23.692967)



Capital One Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Fla. - January 1, 2011 - 1:00 PM
#16 Alabama beats #11 Michigan State by 12.1529
TeamAlabamaMichigan State
SOS0.72230.564
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.583333 (49.959083)31.333333 (35.344)
YPG435.583333 (629.243683)406.833333 (458.908)
TCPG1.166667 (0.647967)1.5 (1.308)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG14.083333 (7.821883)20.083333 (17.512667)
YPG296 (164.3984)337.75 (294.518)
TFPG2.083333 (3.009583)2 (2.256)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.74%88.02%
Defense54.38%67.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.333333 (33.735875)22.708333 (21.582942)



Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Fla. - January 1, 2011 - 1:30 PM
#32 Mississippi State loses to #54 Michigan by 6.4788
TeamMississippi StateMichigan
SOS0.67670.7638
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.083333 (36.654583)34.333333 (52.4476)
YPG394.333333 (533.690733)500.916667 (765.2003)
TCPG1.666667 (1.077667)2.25 (1.0629)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.333333 (13.147533)33.833333 (15.982867)
YPG358.083333 (231.536683)447.916667 (211.595833)
TFPG2.166667 (2.932367)1.5 (2.2914)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.49%78.33%
Defense64.9%86.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.458333 (26.318725)27.333333 (32.797567)



Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO
Pasadena, Calif. - January 1, 2011 - 5:00 PM
#7 Wisconsin beats #1 TCU by 2.7116
TeamWisconsinTCU
SOS0.46190.3231
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.333333 (40.031333)43.333333 (28.002)
YPG450.166667 (415.863967)488.75 (315.83025)
TCPG0.75 (0.80715)1.083333 (1.466617)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.5 (22.0621)11.416667 (15.455883)
YPG323.5 (348.1507)215.416667 (291.631083)
TFPG1.916667 (1.770617)1.833333 (1.1847)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense110.01%101.33%
Defense72.42%60.57%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.375 (27.743608)31.916667 (25.03205)



Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Ariz. - January 1, 2011 - 10:30 PM
#35 Connecticut loses to #9 Oklahoma by 31.6879
TeamConnecticutOklahoma
SOS0.38140.8851
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.916667 (20.532033)36.384615 (64.408046)
YPG325 (247.91)478.461538 (846.972615)
TCPG1.416667 (1.7527)1.230769 (0.282831)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.833333 (24.5378)21.923077 (5.037923)
YPG353.666667 (437.5564)362.923077 (83.399723)
TFPG2.416667 (1.843433)2.307692 (4.085077)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense94.65%86.91%
Defense64.09%69.04%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.419872 (12.784978)28.108974 (44.472923)



TicketCity Bowl
Dallas - January 1, 2011 - 12:00 PM
#61 Northwestern loses to #55 Texas Tech by 14.3305
TeamNorthwesternTexas Tech
SOS0.45420.6586
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.416667 (23.0885)32.083333 (42.260167)
YPG392.416667 (356.4713)454.083333 (598.118567)
TCPG1.833333 (2.001267)2 (1.3656)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.666667 (30.200933)30.333333 (20.7116)
YPG415.833333 (453.923667)464.583333 (317.2175)
TFPG1.666667 (1.514)1.833333 (2.414867)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.02%80.75%
Defense76.04%74.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.875 (21.90005)29.875 (36.23055)



Discover Orange Bowl
Miami - January 3, 2011 - 8:30 PM
#6 Stanford beats #10 Virginia Tech by 1.8008
TeamStanfordVirginia Tech
SOS0.5060.5287
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG40.333333 (40.817333)35.538462 (37.578369)
YPG466.833333 (472.435333)411.076923 (434.672738)
TCPG1.25 (1.235)0.923077 (0.870092)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.833333 (17.619333)19.076923 (17.981908)
YPG327.75 (323.817)348.230769 (328.242323)
TFPG2.416667 (2.445667)2.307692 (2.440154)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense98.74%98.8%
Defense62.18%62.61%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.705128 (29.399621)26.685897 (27.598851)



Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans - January 4, 2011 - 8:30 PM
#5 Ohio State loses to #13 Arkansas by 3.3016
TeamOhio StateArkansas
SOS0.62250.7582
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.416667 (49.07375)37.333333 (56.612267)
YPG448.833333 (558.7975)488.416667 (740.635033)
TCPG1.25 (0.94375)1.833333 (0.8866)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG13.333333 (10.066667)22.75 (11.0019)
YPG250.25 (188.93875)339.75 (164.3031)
TFPG2.416667 (3.00875)2.083333 (3.159167)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense100.37%87.36%
Defense60.89%76.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.083333 (30.037825)25.333333 (33.339467)



GoDaddy.com Bowl
Mobile, Ala. - January 6, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#81 Middle Tennessee State loses to #36 Miami (Ohio) by 18.2894
TeamMiddle Tennessee StateMiami (Ohio)
SOS00.3227
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.916667 (0)20.538462 (13.255523)
YPG372.083333 (0)346.923077 (223.904154)
TCPG2.75 (5.5)1.692308 (2.2924)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.5 (55)23.384615 (31.6768)
YPG384.416667 (768.833333)335.769231 (454.833)
TFPG1.416667 (0)2.307692 (1.489385)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.67%67.66%
Defense81.76%79.59%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.150641 (15.8384)24.019231 (34.127762)



AT&T Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas - January 7, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#17 LSU loses to #24 Texas A&M by 4.5658
TeamLSUTexas A&M
SOS0.75620.8111
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.75 (43.4815)31.833333 (51.640033)
YPG333.75 (504.7635)447.583333 (726.069683)
TCPG1.75 (0.8533)2.25 (0.85005)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.75 (8.6549)20.333333 (7.681933)
YPG301.666667 (147.092667)357.5 (135.0635)
TFPG2.333333 (3.528933)2 (3.2444)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense98.45%81.28%
Defense67.25%65%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.541667 (25.581717)24.791667 (30.147467)



BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, Ala. - January 8, 2011 - 12:00 PM
#43 Pittsburgh beats #65 Kentucky by 9.3729
TeamPittsburghKentucky
SOS0.6260.4581
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.25 (32.865)33 (30.2346)
YPG366.5 (458.858)437.25 (400.60845)
TCPG1.666667 (1.246667)1.583333 (1.716017)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.75 (14.773)28.5 (30.8883)
YPG304.25 (227.579)353.916667 (383.574883)
TFPG1.75 (2.191)1.25 (1.14525)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.86%86.25%
Defense74.19%92.03%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.375 (31.87665)26.375 (22.5038)



Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco - January 9, 2011 - 9:00 PM
#8 Nevada loses to #51 Boston College by 4.5363
TeamNevadaBoston College
SOS0.29460.5471
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG42.615385 (25.108985)18.916667 (20.698617)
YPG535.538462 (315.539262)308.5 (337.5607)
TCPG1.230769 (1.736369)1.916667 (1.736117)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.076923 (31.146123)19.5 (17.6631)
YPG377.307692 (532.305692)309.833333 (280.647033)
TFPG1.692308 (0.997108)2.5 (2.7355)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.94%70.08%
Defense66.87%71.93%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.057692 (21.386042)20.496795 (25.92237)



Tostitos BCS National Championship Game Controversial Crystal Football Bowl
Glendale, Ariz. - January 10, 2011 - 8:30 PM
#2 Oregon loses to #4 Auburn by 18.3805
TeamOregonAuburn
SOS0.4030.7703
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG49.333333 (39.762667)42.692308 (65.771769)
YPG539.166667 (434.568333)497.692308 (766.744769)
TCPG1.833333 (2.189)1.153846 (0.530077)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG18.416667 (21.9895)24.461538 (11.237631)
YPG331.583333 (395.9105)361.923077 (166.267462)
TFPG2.916667 (2.350833)1.538462 (2.370154)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense104.57%98.03%
Defense63.48%77.24%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.897436 (25.500149)30.554487 (43.880635)


Sunday, December 12, 2010

Week 15 Rankings (Post-Army/Navy)

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000TCU (12-0)10.000000
20.978168Oregon (12-0)2-5.0E-6
30.946684Boise State (11-1)3-9.0E-6
40.944539Auburn (13-0)44.0E-6
50.930814Ohio State (11-1)5-2.0E-5
60.89186Stanford (11-1)61.0E-6
70.888585Wisconsin (11-1)7-4.0E-6
80.879716Nevada (12-1)8-9.0E-6
90.847117Oklahoma (11-2)9-8.0E-6
100.831567Virginia Tech (11-2)101.1E-5
110.822079Michigan State (11-1)11-8.0E-6
120.802723Oklahoma State (10-2)12-3.0E-6
130.795841Arkansas (10-2)13-3.0E-6
140.792816Missouri (10-2)14-3.0E-6
150.787198Hawaii (10-3)15-2.36E-4
160.77884Alabama (9-3)16-8.0E-6
170.765561LSU (10-2)17-3.0E-6
180.754202Northern Illinois (10-3)18-2.2E-5
190.752908Utah (10-2)19-1.2E-5
200.746234Nebraska (10-3)20-3.0E-6
210.724054UCF (10-3)21-7.0E-6
220.708467West Virginia (9-3)22-7.0E-6
230.700784Tulsa (9-3)23-1.3E-5
240.699822Texas A&M (9-3)248.0E-6
250.664777South Carolina (9-4)25-2.0E-6
260.647674Florida State (9-4)261.7E-5
270.638833Southern Miss (8-4)27-7.0E-6
280.637354Navy (8-3)330.021114
290.634868North Carolina State (8-4)281.9E-5
300.633615Maryland (8-4)292.76E-4
310.630931Air Force (8-4)302.2E-5
320.630263Mississippi State (8-4)31-1.0E-6
330.622562Iowa (7-5)32-1.0E-6
340.61248San Diego State (8-4)34-6.0E-6
350.612334Connecticut (8-4)35-3.4E-5
360.603882Miami (Ohio) (9-4)36-3.3E-5
370.599051Toledo (8-4)37-2.1E-5
380.586832USC (8-5)38-1.9E-5
390.578411Arizona (7-5)39-1.0E-6
400.572652Temple (8-4)40-2.34E-4
410.567386Miami (7-5)414.0E-6
420.565916Florida (7-5)42-1.0E-6
430.563815Pittsburgh (7-5)43-2.2E-5
440.560402Ohio (8-4)44-4.9E-5
450.555147Notre Dame (7-5)453.7E-5
460.552699North Carolina (7-5)46-2.2E-5
470.550297Baylor (7-5)47-1.0E-6
480.546594Fresno State (8-4)48-5.0E-6
490.541937Georgia (6-6)49-1.0E-6
500.537093Penn State (7-5)50-3.3E-5
510.533663Boston College (7-5)51-5.0E-6
520.524026Kansas State (7-5)52-1.6E-5
530.52373Illinois (6-6)530.0
540.520199Michigan (7-5)55-5.0E-6
550.519163Texas Tech (7-5)561.0E-5
560.513361South Florida (7-5)57-1.6E-5
570.50739Troy (7-5)58-5.0E-6
580.506967Syracuse (7-5)59-1.8E-5
590.504584Louisville (6-6)60-5.0E-6
600.49467Army (6-6)54-0.026507
610.493232Northwestern (7-5)611.0E-5
620.482718Clemson (6-6)635.0E-6
630.482718Western Michigan (6-6)62-2.6E-5
640.481123SMU (7-6)642.55E-4
650.480031Kentucky (6-6)650.0
660.478987Arizona State (6-6)660.0
670.476767Tennessee (6-6)670.0
680.476502BYU (6-6)68-4.0E-6
690.467468Florida International (6-6)69-9.0E-6
700.4614Georgia Tech (6-6)705.0E-6
710.45404California (5-7)710.0
720.436298Washington (6-6)720.0
730.427215East Carolina (6-6)731.0E-5
740.416596UTEP (6-6)74-4.0E-6
750.415288Idaho (6-7)75-4.0E-6
760.407555Houston (5-7)76-4.0E-6
770.404315Texas (5-7)770.0
780.382035Iowa State (5-7)790.0
790.382001Colorado (5-7)80-1.3E-5
800.381809Kent State (5-7)78-2.37E-4
810.381744Middle Tennessee State (6-6)81-4.0E-6
820.379416Oregon State (5-7)820.0
830.359125Louisiana Tech (5-7)832.74E-4
840.349499Indiana (5-7)841.2E-5
850.339955Marshall (5-7)85-3.0E-6
860.333802Louisiana Monroe (5-7)86-3.0E-6
870.33088Cinncinati (4-8)87-1.4E-5
880.32589Arkansas State (4-8)882.87E-4
890.319972Rutgers (4-8)89-2.47E-4
900.318295Mississippi (4-8)90-1.4E-5
910.31479UAB (4-8)911.1E-5
920.31383Virginia (4-8)92-2.6E-5
930.292091Tulane (4-8)93-2.33E-4
940.289996Purdue (4-8)94-3.0E-6
950.273165Rice (4-8)95-1.7E-5
960.272564Utah State (4-8)96-3.0E-6
970.268951Minnesota (3-9)971.0E-6
980.26266UCLA (4-8)982.0E-6
990.25033Ball State (4-8)99-2.1E-5
1000.249973Central Michigan (3-9)1002.8E-4
1010.239453North Texas (3-9)101-2.23E-4
1020.238265Florida Atlantic (4-8)102-2.0E-6
1030.215757Wake Forest (3-9)1032.84E-4
1040.21295Louisiana Lafayette (3-9)104-2.0E-6
1050.211021Duke (3-9)1057.0E-5
1060.201607Wyoming (3-9)106-2.0E-6
1070.188305Colorado State (3-9)107-1.0E-6
1080.181329Western Kentucky (2-10)108-2.0E-6
1090.179311Kansas (3-9)1092.0E-6
1100.150429Bowling Green (2-10)110-1.6E-5
1110.147779Washington State (2-10)1111.4E-5
1120.142999Vanderbilt (2-10)112-1.0E-6
1130.13338Buffalo (2-10)113-2.8E-5
1140.100763UNLV (2-11)114-1.4E-5
1150.09223Eastern Michigan (2-10)115-2.15E-4
1160.089827San Jose State (2-11)116-1.0E-6
1170.03365Akron (1-11)117-2.7E-5
1180.028647New Mexico State (1-11)1180.0
1190.008454Memphis (1-11)1194.0E-6
1200.000000New Mexico (1-11)1200.000000

Monday, December 06, 2010

You Are Not Forgotten

Go Army, Beat Navy! Go Navy, beat Army! Personal rooting preferences aside (go Navy!), I didn't want you to think I'd forgotten about our service academies. Although the Commander-in-Chief Trophy has already been claimed by Air Force this year, the Army-Navy game still holds a lot of intrigue. For starters, both teams are bowl-eligible again, so this is a way for each team to build some momentum headed into their respective bowls. I know the latest rankings say "final" on them, but there is indeed one more game before the bowls officially start. And though one game won't have a lot of impact on most teams, it may be enough to shuffle teams up or down a spot in the rankings depending on the outcome. I'll post one more set of rankings following the game along with my usual bowl prediction catastrophe.

Sunday, December 05, 2010

Week 14 Rankings (Final Pre-Bowl Rankings)

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000TCU (12-0)10.000000
20.978174Oregon (12-0)20.026166
30.946694Boise State (11-1)40.031636
40.944534Auburn (13-0)50.031406
50.930834Ohio State (11-1)31.53E-4
60.891859Stanford (11-1)6-2.5E-4
70.888589Wisconsin (11-1)7-3.2E-4
80.879725Nevada (12-1)80.026063
90.847126Oklahoma (11-2)100.031345
100.831555Virginia Tech (11-2)120.030592
110.822088Michigan State (11-1)9-0.002195
120.802727Oklahoma State (10-2)11-4.2E-5
130.795844Arkansas (10-2)13-3.9E-5
140.79282Missouri (10-2)15-6.94E-4
150.787434Hawaii (10-3)200.039194
160.778849Alabama (9-3)175.47E-4
170.765564LSU (10-2)18-4.86E-4
180.754224Northern Illinois (10-3)14-0.040718
190.75292Utah (10-2)19-7.39E-4
200.746238Nebraska (10-3)16-0.046767
210.724062UCF (10-3)240.031035
220.708474West Virginia (9-3)260.02757
230.700797Tulsa (9-3)22-2.72E-4
240.699813Texas A&M (9-3)23-9.93E-4
250.66478South Carolina (9-4)21-0.048684
260.647656Florida State (9-4)25-0.042904
270.638841Southern Miss (8-4)275.44E-4
280.634849North Carolina State (8-4)282.16E-4
290.633338Maryland (8-4)29-8.24E-4
300.630908Air Force (8-4)304.85E-4
310.630265Mississippi State (8-4)313.35E-4
320.622563Iowa (7-5)323.8E-4
330.61624Navy (7-3)33-6.07E-4
340.612487San Diego State (8-4)353.3E-5
350.612368Connecticut (8-4)370.026649
360.603915Miami (Ohio) (9-4)390.033173
370.599072Toledo (8-4)36-9.32E-4
380.586851USC (8-5)430.031849
390.578412Arizona (7-5)34-0.037329
400.572887Temple (8-4)383.91E-4
410.567381Miami (7-5)400.001023
420.565917Florida (7-5)41-1.12E-4
430.563838Pittsburgh (7-5)530.040519
440.560451Ohio (8-4)421.74E-4
450.555109Notre Dame (7-5)445.67E-4
460.552721North Carolina (7-5)456.84E-4
470.550298Baylor (7-5)476.27E-4
480.5466Fresno State (8-4)540.023937
490.541938Georgia (6-6)490.001488
500.537127Penn State (7-5)50-4.72E-4
510.533668Boston College (7-5)516.3E-5
520.524043Kansas State (7-5)52-9.45E-4
530.523731Illinois (6-6)46-0.027959
540.521178Army (6-5)558.19E-4
550.520205Michigan (7-5)56-5.2E-5
560.519153Texas Tech (7-5)57-3.58E-4
570.513378South Florida (7-5)48-0.032308
580.507395Troy (7-5)680.045282
590.506985Syracuse (7-5)593.23E-4
600.50459Louisville (6-6)600.001368
610.493221Northwestern (7-5)62-8.81E-4
620.482744Western Michigan (6-6)649.21E-4
630.482713Clemson (6-6)632.85E-4
640.480867SMU (7-6)58-0.035684
650.480032Kentucky (6-6)650.00128
660.478987Arizona State (6-6)710.035203
670.476767Tennessee (6-6)663.36E-4
680.476507BYU (6-6)671.18E-4
690.467478Florida International (6-6)61-0.032837
700.461394Georgia Tech (6-6)690.001652
710.45404California (5-7)700.00205
720.436298Washington (6-6)750.028944
730.427205East Carolina (6-6)722.11E-4
740.4166UTEP (6-6)74-2.0E-5
750.415292Idaho (6-7)790.031846
760.40756Houston (5-7)760.001249
770.404315Texas (5-7)773.05E-4
780.382047Kent State (5-7)820.001457
790.382034Iowa State (5-7)80-7.05E-4
800.382015Colorado (5-7)814.73E-4
810.381749Middle Tennessee State (6-6)860.036198
820.379415Oregon State (5-7)73-0.037969
830.358851Louisiana Tech (5-7)78-0.031572
840.349487Indiana (5-7)84-7.0E-5
850.339959Marshall (5-7)872.87E-4
860.333806Louisiana Monroe (5-7)887.21E-4
870.330895Cinncinati (4-8)83-0.034942
880.325602Arkansas State (4-8)890.001781
890.320219Rutgers (4-8)85-0.02908
900.31831Mississippi (4-8)900.001842
910.314779UAB (4-8)910.001464
920.313857Virginia (4-8)920.001881
930.292324Tulane (4-8)957.59E-4
940.29Purdue (4-8)96-6.0E-6
950.273183Rice (4-8)983.8E-4
960.272567Utah State (4-8)93-0.034592
970.268949Minnesota (3-9)990.001182
980.262658UCLA (4-8)94-0.031667
990.250351Ball State (4-8)1001.46E-4
1000.249693Central Michigan (3-9)1010.002501
1010.239677North Texas (3-9)1020.001789
1020.238267Florida Atlantic (4-8)97-0.042655
1030.215473Wake Forest (3-9)1034.18E-4
1040.212953Louisiana Lafayette (3-9)1040.001268
1050.21095Duke (3-9)1050.001241
1060.20161Wyoming (3-9)1063.03E-4
1070.188307Colorado State (3-9)1070.001021
1080.181331Western Kentucky (2-10)1080.001339
1090.179308Kansas (3-9)109-4.2E-4
1100.150445Bowling Green (2-10)1110.002144
1110.147765Washington State (2-10)110-0.021341
1120.143001Vanderbilt (2-10)1127.64E-4
1130.133409Buffalo (2-10)1140.002584
1140.100778UNLV (2-11)113-0.035358
1150.092446Eastern Michigan (2-10)1166.1E-4
1160.089828San Jose State (2-11)115-0.020835
1170.033678Akron (1-11)1170.001261
1180.028648New Mexico State (1-11)1180.001601
1190.008449Memphis (1-11)1190.001204
1200.000000New Mexico (1-11)1200.000000