Chaos Rankings

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Week 4 Top 24

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Alabama (4-0)50.019165
20.999021Wisconsin (4-0)20.007504
30.998295South Florida (4-0)30.011317
40.986062Georgia Tech (4-0)1-0.013937
50.967865Florida (4-0)100.008485
60.958567LSU (4-0)8-0.005558
70.957656Virginia Tech (4-0)6-0.009754
80.950182Oklahoma State (4-0)9-0.012256
90.936048Michigan (4-0)11-0.023112
100.935734Illinois (4-0)7-0.029347
110.916592Stanford (3-0)4-0.065316
120.914361Houston (4-0)270.03419
130.898108Nebraska (4-0)280.018855
140.892325South Carolina (4-0)260.011878
150.885992Clemson (4-0)18-0.01858
160.881366Texas (3-0)13-0.073796
170.877731Boise State (3-0)310.021139
180.872896Baylor (3-0)300.012435
190.865178Oklahoma (3-0)20-0.03598
200.851437Texas Tech (3-0)24-0.043378
210.809044Kansas State (3-0)32-0.016776
220.796403Cincinnati (3-1)350.061388
230.792935Michigan State (3-1)400.079658
240.761777Temple (3-1)420.064569

Week 4 Bottom 10

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.178441Akron (1-3)1200.178441
1120.17679Central Michigan (1-3)103-0.168111
1130.152986Middle Tennessee State (0-3)109-0.063883
1140.146555Memphis (1-3)106-0.124104
1150.120829Miami (Ohio) (0-3)110-0.076529
1160.097866Oregon State (0-3)111-0.063388
1170.058841Florida Atlantic (0-3)112-0.062893
1180.047976UAB (0-3)117-0.024292
1190.03245Western Kentucky (0-3)119-0.007198
1200.000000New Mexico (0-4)118-0.068733

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Week 3 Top 24

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Georgia Tech (3-0)250.177416
20.991517Wisconsin (3-0)40.016892
30.986978South Florida (3-0)210.136539
40.981909Stanford (3-0)2-0.013585
50.980834Alabama (3-0)60.022663
60.96741Virginia Tech (3-0)70.013871
70.965081Illinois (3-0)140.060703
80.964126LSU (3-0)90.014101
90.962438Oklahoma State (3-0)50.003582
100.959379Florida (3-0)160.069659
110.95916Michigan (3-0)280.151687
120.955655Ohio (3-0)270.145218
130.955162Texas (3-0)260.14234
140.929538San Diego State (3-0)190.063647
150.920828West Virginia (3-0)180.046856
160.917551California (3-0)430.172328
170.913429Vanderbilt (3-0)530.233934
180.904572Clemson (3-0)370.122666
190.901509Florida International (3-0)330.106932
200.901158Oklahoma (2-0)12-0.026776
210.899345Arkansas (3-0)13-0.02655
220.897489USC (3-0)290.093715
230.896277Wyoming (3-0)510.213617
240.894815Texas Tech (2-0)420.129873

Week 3 Bottom 10

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.161254Oregon State (0-2)111-0.015751
1120.121735Florida Atlantic (0-2)1150.003205
1130.10383Boston College (0-3)104-0.151289
1140.098238North Texas (0-3)112-0.064662
1150.087379San Jose State (0-3)1170.010992
1160.083203Kent State (0-3)109-0.129195
1170.072269UAB (0-2)107-0.145409
1180.068733New Mexico (0-3)116-0.01414
1190.039648Western Kentucky (0-3)113-0.100799
1200.000000Akron (0-3)119-0.040458

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Delay Of Game Penalty

Forgot to mention before we left, but Chaos Wife and I are in Hawaii for a wedding and some R&R. Due to time zone changes and lack of wifi in the beach house, this week's rankings will be posted after we get home.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Week 2 Top 30 (Stabilized)

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Ohio State (2-0)10.000000
20.995495Stanford (2-0)20.01849
30.989924UCF (2-0)100.12796
40.974624Wisconsin (2-0)60.082487
50.958855Oklahoma State (2-0)70.069807
60.95817Alabama (2-0)80.071102
70.953539Virginia Tech (2-0)90.072058
80.951929Michigan State (2-0)140.127611
90.950024LSU (2-0)110.099075
100.940735Auburn (2-0)40.004921
110.93735Florida State (2-0)190.147347
120.927935Oklahoma (1-0)5-0.002428
130.925895Arkansas (2-0)130.081915
140.904378Illinois (2-0)380.209089
150.889963Temple (2-0)310.16732
160.88972Florida (2-0)290.164701
170.877886Boise State (1-0)3-0.091018
180.873972West Virginia (2-0)270.128003
190.86589San Diego State (2-0)230.1042
200.85525Navy (2-0)350.155156
210.850438South Florida (2-0)440.19005
220.845669Nebraska (2-0)200.067717
230.843919Texas A&M (1-0)210.072325
240.826001South Carolina (2-0)300.102134
250.822583Georgia Tech (2-0)570.214786
260.812822Texas (2-0)620.216847
270.810437Ohio (2-0)480.169325
280.807473Michigan (2-0)490.166656
290.803774USC (2-0)410.113223
300.801722Maryland (1-0)220.033783

Week 2 Bottom 10 (Stabilized)

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.177006Oregon State (0-2)98-0.086166
1120.162901North Texas (0-2)107-0.03728
1130.140448Western Kentucky (0-2)112-0.01865
1140.121887Duke (0-2)113-0.012731
1150.118529Florida Atlantic (0-2)110-0.065502
1160.082874New Mexico (0-2)1180.047135
1170.076387San Jose State (0-2)1170.024239
1180.072019UNLV (0-2)1153.23E-4
1190.040458Akron (0-2)1190.029019
1200.000000Memphis (0-2)1200.000000

Monday, September 05, 2011

Week 1 Top 30 (Stabilized)

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Ohio State (1-0)40.065029
20.977005Stanford (1-0)60.072688
30.968905Boise State (1-0)20.010888
40.935813Auburn (1-0)3-0.0117
50.930363Oklahoma (1-0)80.072382
60.892136Wisconsin (1-0)90.051929
70.889047Oklahoma State (1-0)100.068198
80.887068Alabama (1-0)110.078134
90.881481Virginia Tech (1-0)130.107781
100.861964UCF (1-0)180.129976
110.850948LSU (1-0)120.065747
120.84803Northern Illinois (1-0)140.075328
130.843979Arkansas (1-0)160.098728
140.824317Michigan State (1-0)150.074436
150.822553Missouri (1-0)170.079275
160.808853Hawaii (1-0)200.084178
170.793171Mississippi State (1-0)260.135952
180.793102Utah (1-0)210.091818
190.790003Florida State (1-0)230.119925
200.777952Nebraska (1-0)220.089445
210.771593Texas A&M (1-0)290.128633
220.767939Maryland (1-0)250.110459
230.76169San Diego State (1-0)300.121486
240.759714TCU (0-1)1-0.240285
250.759535North Carolina State (1-0)240.096199
260.746014Air Force (1-0)270.090008
270.745969West Virginia (1-0)280.095008
280.744847Iowa (1-0)310.112164
290.725018Florida (1-0)350.134154
300.723866South Carolina (1-0)330.110674

Week 1 Bottom 10 (Stabilized)

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.16771Louisiana Lafayette (0-1)104-0.041326
1120.159098Western Kentucky (0-1)108-0.018088
1130.134618Duke (0-1)105-0.072939
1140.127592Buffalo (0-1)113-0.00306
1150.071696UNLV (0-1)114-0.026055
1160.053966New Mexico State (0-1)1180.027854
1170.052148San Jose State (0-1)116-0.035149
1180.035738New Mexico (0-1)1200.035738
1190.011439Akron (0-1)117-0.020645
1200.000000Memphis (0-1)119-0.007223

Sunday, September 04, 2011

A Couple Reminders

Chaos Rankings follows the ESPN definition of "weeks" with regards to which week a game is played during. Normally this means Sunday-Saturday, but since Labor Day weekend is always the big opening weekend, Week 1 usually runs Thursday-Monday. As such, Week 1 Chaos Rankings will be posted following the conclusion of the Miami vs Maryland game tomorrow. Also, don't forget that the first two weeks have some stabilization built in that is based on the preseason rankings (which are really just last season's final rankings). As I've said before plugging in last year's final rankings is a better indicator of future performance than typical preseason rankings. And I think it's important during the first 2 weeks to limit how much teams can move up and down. Otherwise you end up with an awful team like Washington State near the top of the rankings for having throttled a I-AA team. Sure, plenty of teams that probably belong in the top also throttled their share of cupcakes, but that's why we scale the first two weeks 66.666% and 33.333% respectively against the "preseason" numbers. After 3 weeks, most teams start playing legitimate opponents and the data becomes more representative of true performance, so we drop all of the stabilization stuff.

Thursday, September 01, 2011

Countdown to Kickoff

The opening kickoff of the 2011 season is just hours away! After a tumultuous offseason (with some unresolved issues lingering into the season), it should be a nice change of pace to have some actual on-field action to discuss and distract us from all the off-field drama. Murray State at Louisville kicks off at 6 pm EDT on ESPNU. Where will you be? As usual, I'll be live-tweeting several games this year, including most Georgia Tech games. You can check that out over at Twitter. Good luck to all the players, coaches, and fans this season!