Blame it on Matthew

When compiling the bowl predictions, I noticed some anomalies in the data regarding team records, specifically that something like 20 teams had only played 11 games this season. I could see where 2 teams maybe played 11 games due to major weather problems and schedule conflicts, but that many teams missing games meant something was wonky. During week 6, the Army/Duke game, played during Hurricane Matthew, was missing its team stats in the imported data set from ESPN, which isn't something I usually check for since it almost never happens. As a result, the data for other week 6 games following that one were ignored by my importer tool, resulting in the missing game data for so many teams that week. I've gone back and patched the Army/Duke game manually and re-run the numbers for every week of the season just to be safe. I've only update the week 15 rankings posted here, since at this point, the previous rankings aren't all that important. I've also update the bowl game predictions based on this newly updated set of data.

2016 Annual Bowl-Prediction Catastrophe

Update: 12/15/16 - 1:35 pm These numbers have all been re-run using the complete data set which now includes the missing week 6 data I discovered.

Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, NM - December 17, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#49 New Mexico loses to #69 Texas San Antonio by 7.6134

Team	New Mexico (8-4)	Texas San Antonio (6-6)
SOS	0.192919	0.345626
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	37.833333 (14.597538)	29.916667 (20.679956)
YPG	470.25 (181.44032)	376.416667 (260.198774)
TCPG	1.166667 (1.883189)	1.166667 (1.526873)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.583333 (55.823103)	35.666667 (46.678679)
YPG	455.583333 (735.385305)	471.666667 (617.292807)
TFPG	1.5 (0.578757)	1.416667 (0.979274)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	91.95%	90.83%
Defense	86.75%	86.42%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	36.75 (30.638108)	32.25 (38.251529)

Las Vegas Bowl Presented by Geico Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 17, 2016 - 3:30 PM
#20 Houston beats #16 San Diego State by 18.4121

Team	Houston (9-3)	San Diego State (10-3)
SOS	0.489408	0.148312
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	38 (37.195008)	35.307692 (10.473109)
YPG	459.166667 (449.43968)	419.076923 (124.308273)
TCPG	1.75 (1.787072)	1.153846 (1.965434)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	31.166667 (31.826901)	24.615385 (41.929255)
YPG	404.416667 (412.983829)	348.307692 (593.298964)
TFPG	1.416667 (1.386656)	1.230769 (0.365076)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	94.58%	96.29%
Defense	88.08%	80.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.307692 (39.562132)	33.237179 (21.150005)

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, AL - December 17, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#19 Appalachian State beats #24 Toledo by 8.0736

Team	Appalachian State (9-3)	Toledo (9-3)
SOS	0.461998	0.365855
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.083333 (26.872884)	38.833333 (28.414738)
YPG	431.083333 (398.319276)	529.75 (387.623373)
TCPG	1.083333 (1.165671)	1.166667 (1.479672)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.333333 (31.562784)	38.833333 (49.251928)
YPG	403.166667 (433.808946)	475.333333 (602.860513)
TFPG	1.333333 (1.231995)	1.25 (0.914638)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.1%	83.78%
Defense	83.15%	93.37%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.958333 (38.062406)	34.083333 (29.988761)

Autonation Cure Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 17, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#64 UCF beats #57 Arkansas State by 18.4556

Team	UCF (6-6)	Arkansas State (7-5)
SOS	0.56434	0.192951
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.083333 (33.954457)	27 (10.419354)
YPG	361.833333 (408.394047)	391.5 (151.080633)
TCPG	1.833333 (1.59742)	1.333333 (2.152131)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.416667 (25.63133)	24.166667 (39.007368)
YPG	398.916667 (347.58407)	366.666667 (591.835933)
TFPG	1.25 (1.41085)	1.5 (0.578853)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	95.02%	78.82%
Defense	84.28%	75.32%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.125 (36.480913)	28.208333 (18.025342)

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans, LA - December 17, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#67 Southern Mississippi beats #74 Louisiana Lafayette by 0.4895

Team	Southern Mississippi (6-6)	Louisiana Lafayette (6-6)
SOS	0.331462	0.327726
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.25 (22.042223)	23.833333 (15.621606)
YPG	471.666667 (312.679153)	365.166667 (239.349222)
TCPG	2.5 (3.34269)	1.333333 (1.792731)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	36.5 (48.803274)	32.25 (43.361673)
YPG	465.416667 (622.297455)	400.833333 (538.939657)
TFPG	1.083333 (0.718168)	1.833333 (1.201662)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.57%	74.59%
Defense	89.63%	91.95%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	32.75 (32.701948)	30.166667 (32.21244)

Miami Beach Bowl
Miami, FL - December 19, 2016 - 2:30 PM
#71 Central Michigan loses to #28 Tulsa by 8.2972

Team	Central Michigan (6-6)	Tulsa (9-3)
SOS	0.458818	0.434283
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.666667 (25.387929)	41.416667 (35.973109)
YPG	395.083333 (362.54269)	521.666667 (453.10193)
TCPG	1.75 (1.894137)	1.75 (1.98001)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.333333 (31.749344)	22.75 (25.740124)
YPG	396.083333 (428.706341)	359 (406.184806)
TFPG	1.333333 (1.223515)	1.333333 (1.158088)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.03%	90.73%
Defense	84.64%	72.42%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.208333 (25.564026)	35.375 (33.861226)

Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, FL - December 20, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#35 Memphis beats #11 Western Kentucky by 1.8472

Team	Memphis (8-4)	Western Kentucky (10-3)
SOS	0.524455	0.42758
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	39.5 (41.431945)	45.076923 (38.547982)
YPG	461.5 (484.071965)	517.384615 (442.446628)
TCPG	1.5 (1.426635)	1.384615 (1.585163)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35.166667 (33.446665)	29.923077 (34.257135)
YPG	463.666667 (440.98873)	386.846154 (442.876951)
TFPG	1.75 (1.835593)	1.461538 (1.249849)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	97.82%	99.57%
Defense	86.68%	88.4%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	34.711538 (37.84454)	40.121795 (35.997323)

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 21, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#34 BYU loses to #56 Wyoming by 27.2353

Team	BYU (8-4)	Wyoming (8-5)
SOS	0.356271	0.710469
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30 (21.37626)	37.076923 (52.684009)
YPG	406.333333 (289.529566)	439.230769 (624.119691)
TCPG	1.416667 (1.823899)	1.692308 (0.979951)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	31 (39.911198)	28.923077 (16.748255)
YPG	413.583333 (532.471171)	388.769231 (225.121488)
TFPG	1.333333 (0.950056)	1.461538 (2.076756)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	84.38%	96.47%
Defense	85.66%	85.02%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.461538 (19.062257)	34.038462 (46.297603)

Famous Idaho Potato Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, ID - December 22, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#51 Idaho loses to #54 Colorado State by 12.5261

Team	Idaho (8-4)	Colorado State (7-5)
SOS	0.37356	0.643235
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.25 (21.10614)	34.083333 (43.847186)
YPG	379.916667 (283.84334)	451 (580.19797)
TCPG	1.416667 (1.774913)	1 (0.71353)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.916667 (28.711833)	37 (26.40061)
YPG	339.25 (425.03954)	444.416667 (317.104624)
TFPG	1.25 (0.9339)	1 (1.28647)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	84.98%	86.37%
Defense	77.2%	95.15%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	32.625 (23.753375)	28.5 (36.27951)

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, Bahamas - December 23, 2016 - 1:00 PM
#58 Eastern Michigan beats #25 Old Dominion by 22.3464

Team	Eastern Michigan (7-5)	Old Dominion (9-3)
SOS	0.469617	0.14466
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.416667 (28.568368)	36 (10.41552)
YPG	453.916667 (426.333967)	436.916667 (126.40873)
TCPG	1.833333 (1.944738)	0.75 (1.28301)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.333333 (30.055037)	33.083333 (56.594997)
YPG	427 (452.947082)	440.25 (753.12687)
TFPG	1.166667 (1.095773)	1.583333 (0.45809)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	76.58%	94.17%
Defense	75.83%	85.88%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.75 (42.581682)	32.166667 (20.235278)

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX - December 23, 2016 - 4:30 PM
#46 Louisiana Tech loses to #39 Navy by 17.2576

Team	Louisiana Tech (8-5)	Navy (9-4)
SOS	0.296414	0.636463
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	44 (26.084432)	37.384615 (47.587849)
YPG	516.076923 (305.94485)	436.692308 (555.876992)
TCPG	1.230769 (1.731904)	1.153846 (0.838932)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.230769 (34.09686)	29 (21.085146)
YPG	361 (507.989092)	388.692308 (282.608071)
TFPG	1.615385 (0.957645)	2 (2.545852)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	97.44%	97.84%
Defense	76.71%	85.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	36.5 (23.584789)	30.807692 (40.842354)

Dollar General Knick-Knacks Bowl
Mobile, AL - December 23, 2016 - 8:00 PM
#53 Ohio loses to #22 Troy by 5.2502

Team	Ohio (8-5)	Troy (9-3)
SOS	0.21319	0.291002
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.538462 (11.315469)	34.166667 (19.885137)
YPG	392.615385 (167.403348)	438.583333 (255.257254)
TCPG	1.538462 (2.420954)	1.5 (2.126994)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.307692 (41.398311)	27.833333 (39.467555)
YPG	366.923077 (577.397492)	371.916667 (527.376346)
TFPG	1.230769 (0.524775)	0.916667 (0.533504)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.25%	89.03%
Defense	81.94%	85.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.185897 (25.391512)	30.237179 (30.641724)

Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu, HI - December 24, 2016 - 8:00 PM
#94 Hawaii beats #47 Middle Tennessee by 10.3956

Team	Hawaii (6-7)	Middle Tennessee (8-4)
SOS	0.373642	0.134853
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.461538 (19.774284)	40.083333 (10.810716)
YPG	382.923077 (286.152289)	515.666667 (139.078394)
TCPG	2.076923 (2.601795)	1.5 (2.595441)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.153846 (37.774206)	28.666667 (49.601761)
YPG	407.692308 (510.722677)	409.083333 (707.834437)
TFPG	1.384615 (1.034701)	1.416667 (0.382084)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	78.98%	88.84%
Defense	84.53%	80.09%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.564103 (34.688023)	35.11859 (24.292461)

St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL - December 26, 2016 - 11:00 AM
#70 Miami (OH) loses to #78 Mississippi State by 35.8037

Team	Miami (OH) (6-6)	Mississippi State (5-7)
SOS	0.201915	0.765566
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.416667 (9.456353)	31.5 (48.230658)
YPG	361.416667 (145.950893)	449 (687.478268)
TCPG	1.5 (2.394255)	1.333333 (0.625157)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.333333 (46.820987)	29.833333 (13.987895)
YPG	408.916667 (652.700516)	381.75 (178.990359)
TFPG	1.5 (0.605745)	1.083333 (1.658726)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	74.05%	80.18%
Defense	81.98%	89.31%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.625 (11.722124)	30.416667 (47.525822)

Quick Lane Motor City Bowl
Detroit, MI - December 26, 2016 - 2:30 PM
#77 Maryland beats #75 Boston College by 13.3319

Team	Maryland (6-6)	Boston College (6-6)
SOS	0.664721	0.52333
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.416667 (33.789984)	19.083333 (19.973762)
YPG	379.5 (504.523239)	287.666667 (301.089193)
TCPG	1.25 (0.838198)	1.5 (1.43001)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	31.666667 (21.234337)	35.75 (34.081905)
YPG	405.416667 (271.855389)	463.25 (441.634755)
TFPG	1.333333 (1.772589)	1.333333 (1.395547)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	76.54%	75.82%
Defense	89.27%	88.2%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.583333 (33.935945)	25.375 (20.604049)

Camping World Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA - December 26, 2016 - 5:00 PM
#61 NC State beats #66 Vanderbilt by 1.863

Team	NC State (6-6)	Vanderbilt (6-6)
SOS	0.78297	0.795527
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.833333 (40.45345)	23.5 (37.389769)
YPG	419.75 (657.303315)	359.166667 (571.453562)
TCPG	1.583333 (0.687262)	1 (0.408946)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.333333 (14.468667)	37 (15.131002)
YPG	414.083333 (179.737012)	475.333333 (194.385665)
TFPG	1.666667 (2.6099)	1.5 (2.386581)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	70.34%	74.78%
Defense	92%	88.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.416667 (27.792226)	28.416667 (25.929218)

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX - December 27, 2016 - 12:00 PM
#52 Army loses to #90 North Texas by 14.6763

Team	Army (7-5)	North Texas (5-7)
SOS	0.06752	0.39878
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.25 (3.94992)	24.25 (19.34083)
YPG	404.25 (54.58992)	336.166667 (268.113087)
TCPG	1.916667 (3.574507)	1.583333 (1.903863)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.333333 (52.840533)	32.333333 (38.878893)
YPG	384.166667 (716.455467)	445.416667 (535.586817)
TFPG	1.583333 (0.213813)	1.5 (1.19634)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	82.69%	82.44%
Defense	84.29%	82.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.791667 (21.414407)	26.291667 (36.090682)

Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grumman USNA Bowl
Annapolis, MD - December 27, 2016 - 3:30 PM
#10 Temple beats #73 Wake Forest by 4.127

Team	Temple (10-3)	Wake Forest (6-6)
SOS	0.45692	0.572964
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.846154 (30.016129)	19.25 (22.059114)
YPG	416.461538 (380.579212)	306.75 (351.513414)
TCPG	1.307692 (1.420363)	1.416667 (1.209935)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.461538 (28.741465)	34 (29.038448)
YPG	354.615385 (385.169046)	469 (400.559768)
TFPG	1.076923 (0.984135)	1.666667 (1.90988)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	90.14%	71.72%
Defense	85.28%	82.85%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.423077 (29.527289)	22.855769 (25.400289)

National Funding Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 27, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#42 Minnesota loses to #33 Washington State by 11.8299

Team	Minnesota (8-4)	Washington State (8-4)
SOS	0.512183	0.655207
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.333333 (31.072435)	40.333333 (52.853365)
YPG	363.75 (372.613133)	497.583333 (652.040166)
TCPG	1.333333 (1.300845)	1.333333 (0.919448)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.666667 (27.968175)	37.833333 (26.089337)
YPG	393.583333 (383.993282)	456.25 (314.623613)
TFPG	1.416667 (1.451185)	1 (1.310414)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	95.3%	92.64%
Defense	83.24%	94.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	34.083333 (28.580886)	34.5 (40.41077)

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Phoeniz, AZ - December 27, 2016 - 10:15 PM
#17 Boise State beats #63 Baylor by 13.0235

Team	Boise State (10-2)	Baylor (6-6)
SOS	0.623049	0.434153
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35.583333 (44.340321)	34.916667 (30.318351)
YPG	479.833333 (597.919357)	523.333333 (454.413473)
TCPG	1.25 (0.942378)	2.166667 (2.452004)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.333333 (22.114459)	30.166667 (34.139436)
YPG	396.416667 (298.859318)	390.583333 (442.020815)
TFPG	1.666667 (2.07683)	0.916667 (0.795947)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	84.75%	76.25%
Defense	84.57%	88.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	32.875 (39.239878)	32.125 (26.216405)

New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, NY - December 28, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#44 Pittsburgh beats #62 Northwestern by 9.2354

Team	Pittsburgh (8-4)	Northwestern (6-6)
SOS	0.72101	0.777447
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	42.333333 (61.045513)	25.583333 (39.779372)
YPG	447.5 (645.30395)	392.916667 (610.943768)
TCPG	1.166667 (0.650977)	1.166667 (0.51929)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	31.666667 (17.669367)	33.416667 (14.873959)
YPG	461 (257.22878)	452.5 (201.410465)
TFPG	2 (2.88404)	1.583333 (2.461916)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	108.11%	74.41%
Defense	78.5%	84.4%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	37.875 (37.959736)	28.625 (28.724369)

Russell Athletic Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 28, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#14 West Virginia loses to #30 Miami by 5.0215

Team	West Virginia (10-2)	Miami (8-4)
SOS	0.483742	0.550624
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.583333 (31.523854)	34.583333 (38.084827)
YPG	506.916667 (490.433764)	431.166667 (474.821429)
TCPG	1.666667 (1.72086)	0.833333 (0.74896)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.75 (33.814899)	33.75 (30.33288)
YPG	387.333333 (399.927864)	444.75 (399.719952)
TFPG	1.333333 (1.289979)	1.416667 (1.560101)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	73.46%	91.67%
Defense	96.63%	86.73%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.166667 (30.928367)	33.666667 (35.949863)

Foster Farms SANS-Francisco Bowl
Santa Clara, CA - December 28, 2016 - 8:30 PM
#68 Indiana beats #41 Utah by 8.9654

Team	Indiana (6-6)	Utah (8-4)
SOS	0.72331	0.545462
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.916667 (37.491568)	30.166667 (32.909541)
YPG	433.083333 (626.507012)	427.416667 (466.2791)
TCPG	2.166667 (1.19899)	1.75 (1.590883)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.5 (16.87809)	33.25 (30.226777)
YPG	415.583333 (229.975505)	411.583333 (374.16053)
TFPG	1.333333 (1.928827)	1.416667 (1.545476)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	68.39%	80.66%
Defense	83.88%	92.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.583333 (33.859173)	30.333333 (24.893815)

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Houston, TX - December 28, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#36 Texas A&M beats #37 Kansas State by 15.815

Team	Texas A&M (8-4)	Kansas State (8-4)
SOS	0.696945	0.471811
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35.416667 (49.366938)	32.166667 (30.353174)
YPG	468.083333 (652.456678)	386.75 (364.945809)
TCPG	1.583333 (0.959674)	1 (1.056378)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.583333 (17.930754)	28.916667 (30.546931)
YPG	351.083333 (212.795119)	393.916667 (416.124901)
TFPG	1.166667 (1.626205)	1.25 (1.179528)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	86.47%	95.05%
Defense	96.3%	83.89%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	32.166667 (39.956934)	30.875 (24.141964)

Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, AL - December 29, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#15 South Florida beats #76 South Carolina by 4.1914

Team	South Florida (10-2)	South Carolina (6-6)
SOS	0.437627	0.581774
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	43.583333 (38.146487)	19.25 (22.398299)
YPG	515.083333 (450.828748)	336.416667 (391.43694)
TCPG	1.25 (1.405933)	1.25 (1.045565)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.416667 (33.086278)	30.75 (25.720899)
YPG	357.25 (401.815509)	379.916667 (317.782056)
TFPG	1.416667 (1.239943)	1.583333 (1.842284)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	96.7%	65.4%
Defense	94.11%	92.5%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	37.166667 (31.933693)	24.333333 (27.742289)

Belk Queen City Bowl
Charlotte, NC - December 29, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#59 Arkansas beats #31 Virginia Tech by 10.1145

Team	Arkansas (7-5)	Virginia Tech (9-4)
SOS	0.741522	0.535927
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.833333 (45.72719)	35 (37.51489)
YPG	437.916667 (649.449685)	448.230769 (480.437943)
TCPG	1.75 (0.904673)	1.846154 (1.7135)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.75 (13.828573)	27.846154 (25.845296)
YPG	364.166667 (188.258143)	356.230769 (330.634164)
TFPG	1.166667 (1.730218)	1.538462 (1.649006)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.47%	89.24%
Defense	83.95%	89.34%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.339744 (35.786243)	30.875 (25.671732)

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX - December 29, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#23 Oklahoma State loses to #12 Colorado by 15.8752

Team	Oklahoma State (9-3)	Colorado (10-3)
SOS	0.524474	0.793745
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	38.666667 (40.559323)	32.846154 (52.142941)
YPG	492.083333 (516.169828)	446.307692 (708.508998)
TCPG	1.166667 (1.109561)	1.461538 (0.602899)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.916667 (32.256514)	29.307692 (12.089716)
YPG	403.5 (383.749482)	382.923077 (157.959598)
TFPG	1.5 (1.573422)	1.076923 (1.709605)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	89.8%	84.11%
Defense	96.06%	87.47%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.987179 (26.324519)	33.38141 (42.199727)

Autozone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN - December 30, 2016 - 12:00 PM
#55 Georgia beats #65 TCU by 1.2266

Team	Georgia (7-5)	TCU (6-6)
SOS	0.669129	0.547178
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24 (32.118192)	31.666667 (34.654607)
YPG	382.416667 (511.772164)	475 (519.8191)
TCPG	1.5 (0.992613)	1.5 (1.358466)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	37.166667 (24.594744)	32.666667 (29.584371)
YPG	486 (321.606612)	431.416667 (390.709916)
TFPG	1.333333 (1.784344)	1.333333 (1.459141)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	71.72%	76.19%
Defense	87.4%	86.54%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.333333 (30.851281)	34.416667 (29.624676)

Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX - December 30, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#32 Stanford beats #45 North Carolina by 16.9183

Team	Stanford (9-3)	North Carolina (8-4)
SOS	0.755051	0.403481
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.416667 (39.891861)	33.083333 (26.696993)
YPG	374.083333 (564.90399)	442.416667 (357.013438)
TCPG	1.5 (0.734847)	1.083333 (1.292458)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.75 (16.04416)	30.75 (36.685919)
YPG	421.5 (206.492007)	400.666667 (478.010559)
TFPG	1.25 (1.887628)	1.416667 (1.143196)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.71%	85.46%
Defense	88.8%	87.71%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.583333 (38.28889)	32.916667 (21.370576)

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN - December 30, 2016 - 3:30 PM
#29 Nebraska loses to #48 Tennessee by 24.9612

Team	Nebraska (9-3)	Tennessee (8-4)
SOS	0.692317	0.92163
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.75 (37.03896)	36.25 (66.818175)
YPG	386.083333 (534.58411)	437.25 (805.965435)
TCPG	1.083333 (0.666647)	2.083333 (0.326542)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	39.25 (24.153116)	25.583333 (4.009932)
YPG	470.5 (289.529703)	377.166667 (59.117103)
TFPG	1.166667 (1.615406)	1.25 (2.304075)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	79.18%	94.75%
Defense	95.34%	77.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.166667 (20.524446)	37.75 (45.485645)

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Tucson, AZ - December 30, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#72 South Alabama loses to #27 Air Force by 6.4517

Team	South Alabama (6-6)	Air Force (9-3)
SOS	0.170885	0.342827
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.75 (8.800578)	34.333333 (23.540787)
YPG	394.583333 (134.856746)	451.5 (309.572781)
TCPG	1.583333 (2.625531)	1.416667 (1.86199)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.916667 (41.317564)	32.833333 (43.15436)
YPG	342.166667 (567.391032)	430.5 (565.825953)
TFPG	1.083333 (0.370251)	1.416667 (0.971343)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	74.58%	86.91%
Defense	83.22%	87.16%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.291667 (25.977469)	29.625 (32.429176)

Capital One Orange Bowl
Miami, FL - December 30, 2016 - 8:00 PM
#6 Michigan beats #18 Florida State by 4.0509

Team	Michigan (10-2)	Florida State (9-3)
SOS	0.866551	0.887343
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	41 (71.057182)	35.25 (62.557682)
YPG	439.333333 (761.409479)	474.333333 (841.792726)
TCPG	0.916667 (0.244657)	1.5 (0.337971)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.333333 (8.095906)	34.166667 (7.698228)
YPG	393.666667 (105.068846)	437.333333 (98.537323)
TFPG	1.083333 (1.877527)	1.083333 (1.922577)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	106.66%	84.93%
Defense	88.06%	89.29%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	37.583333 (39.377705)	32.791667 (35.326794)

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 31, 2016 - 11:00 AM
#38 LSU beats #13 Louisville by 7.7258

Team	LSU (7-4)	Louisville (9-3)
SOS	0.924542	0.622489
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.272727 (52.278648)	45.333333 (56.439003)
YPG	425.727273 (787.205488)	558.75 (695.631458)
TCPG	1.454545 (0.219514)	2.583333 (1.950474)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.727273 (5.240901)	32.916667 (24.852808)
YPG	445.272727 (67.198779)	426.416667 (321.953965)
TFPG	1.636364 (3.025774)	1.25 (1.556223)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	75.9%	92.72%
Defense	89.13%	88.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.594697 (38.565728)	40.030303 (30.839952)

Taxslayer Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL - December 31, 2016 - 11:00 AM
#50 Georgia Tech loses to #60 Kentucky by 9.5173

Team	Georgia Tech (8-4)	Kentucky (7-5)
SOS	0.665323	0.746894
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.833333 (37.036314)	31 (46.307428)
YPG	388.583333 (517.066858)	428.25 (639.714711)
TCPG	1.25 (0.836693)	2.25 (1.138977)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	36.833333 (24.654539)	29.416667 (14.89107)
YPG	468.5 (313.592349)	383.083333 (193.92138)
TFPG	1.25 (1.663308)	1.25 (1.867235)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.86%	82.73%
Defense	89.85%	87.76%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.625 (25.963692)	33.916667 (35.480984)

Chick-Fil-A (SEMI) Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA - December 31, 2016 - 3:00 PM
#4 Washington loses to #1 Alabama by 20.7591

Team	Washington (12-1)	Alabama (13-0)
SOS	0.536846	0.86379
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	44.461538 (47.737998)	40.538462 (70.033435)
YPG	477.153846 (512.316267)	471.307692 (814.221743)
TCPG	0.923077 (0.855054)	1.461538 (0.398152)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.846154 (27.646731)	30.923077 (8.424065)
YPG	390.384615 (361.616392)	396.538462 (108.025008)
TFPG	1.846154 (1.982201)	1.461538 (2.524925)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	106.49%	98.3%
Defense	87.38%	89.12%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	37.692308 (28.081031)	35.192308 (48.840083)

Playstation (SEMI) Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ - December 31, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#3 Ohio State beats #5 Clemson by 11.1642

Team	Ohio State (11-1)	Clemson (12-1)
SOS	0.988941	0.861552
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	42.666667 (84.389632)	40.153846 (69.189253)
YPG	479.5 (948.394419)	505.692308 (871.360438)
TCPG	0.75 (0.016589)	1.846154 (0.511193)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35 (0.77413)	28.538462 (7.902186)
YPG	440.75 (9.748509)	415.384615 (115.018338)
TFPG	1.166667 (2.307529)	1.461538 (2.518383)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	101.69%	90.75%
Defense	90.75%	78.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	35.602564 (46.145909)	37.576923 (34.981691)

Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX - January 2, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#2 Western Michigan loses to #9 Wisconsin by 39.6096

Team	Western Michigan (13-0)	Wisconsin (10-3)
SOS	0.192128	0.916908
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	43.538462 (16.729915)	28.692308 (52.616413)
YPG	495.923077 (190.561418)	383.692308 (703.621093)
TCPG	0.538462 (0.870016)	1.230769 (0.204534)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.461538 (47.602304)	25.692308 (4.26965)
YPG	368.692308 (595.712384)	325.076923 (54.022583)
TFPG	1.153846 (0.443372)	1.076923 (1.974879)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	100.33%	85.46%
Defense	91.32%	90.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	34.615385 (10.499783)	29.076923 (50.109358)

Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 2, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#40 Florida beats #43 Iowa by 14.5106

Team	Florida (8-4)	Iowa (8-4)
SOS	0.889472	0.588356
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.416667 (41.656939)	26.75 (31.477046)
YPG	345.083333 (613.883925)	333.25 (392.139274)
TCPG	1.666667 (0.368427)	0.75 (0.617466)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.083333 (7.092213)	31.5 (25.933572)
YPG	432.5 (95.60672)	402.166667 (331.098991)
TFPG	1.25 (2.22368)	1.25 (1.47089)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.55%	91.74%
Defense	84.78%	89.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.458333 (33.795255)	29.416667 (19.28463)

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwest Mutual
Pasadena, CA - January 2, 2017 - 5:00 PM
#21 USC loses to #7 Penn State by 5.4373

Team	USC (9-3)	Penn State (11-2)
SOS	0.891441	0.913181
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.916667 (58.686533)	36.692308 (67.013436)
YPG	468.916667 (836.023085)	430.076923 (785.476149)
TCPG	1.583333 (0.34377)	1.307692 (0.227065)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.25 (7.436292)	28.153846 (4.888578)
YPG	464.25 (100.797032)	392.692308 (68.186307)
TFPG	1.416667 (2.52575)	1.769231 (3.231256)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.23%	97.5%
Defense	84.31%	81.94%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.535256 (31.787555)	35.471154 (37.224864)

Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA - January 2, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#26 Auburn loses to #8 Oklahoma by 4.9721

Team	Auburn (8-4)	Oklahoma (10-2)
SOS	0.875953	0.793898
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.25 (56.498969)	44.666667 (70.921555)
YPG	449.25 (787.043771)	557.333333 (884.931637)
TCPG	1.083333 (0.268769)	1.416667 (0.583956)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.916667 (6.925958)	27.666667 (11.404311)
YPG	380.166667 (94.317069)	367.166667 (151.347569)
TFPG	1.583333 (2.773851)	1.583333 (2.51401)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	82.04%	91.59%
Defense	83.92%	86.12%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.958333 (33.95164)	36.291667 (38.923756)

CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T (FINAL) CFP Championship Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 9, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#1 Alabama loses to #3 Ohio State by 11.0031

Team	Alabama (13-0)	Ohio State (11-1)
SOS	0.86379	0.988941
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	40.538462 (70.033435)	42.666667 (84.389632)
YPG	471.307692 (814.221743)	479.5 (948.394419)
TCPG	1.461538 (0.398152)	0.75 (0.016589)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.923077 (8.424065)	35 (0.77413)
YPG	396.538462 (108.025008)	440.75 (9.748509)
TFPG	1.461538 (2.524925)	1.166667 (2.307529)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	98.3%	101.69%
Defense	89.12%	90.75%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	37.769231 (35.403783)	36.794872 (46.406848)

Week 15 Rankings (Pre-Bowls)

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	Alabama (13-0)	1	0.000000
2	0.961326	Western Michigan (13-0)	2	1.6E-5
3	0.936141	Ohio State (11-1)	3	-1.7E-5
4	0.935312	Washington (12-1)	4	1.0E-6
5	0.8872	Clemson (12-1)	5	1.7E-5
6	0.843523	Michigan (10-2)	6	3.0E-6
7	0.768874	Penn State (11-2)	7	1.0E-6
8	0.742341	Oklahoma (10-2)	8	-1.3E-5
9	0.737888	Wisconsin (10-3)	9	5.0E-6
10	0.736657	Temple (10-3)	10	-2.7E-5
11	0.7312	Western Kentucky (10-3)	11	3.5E-5
12	0.729705	Colorado (10-3)	12	5.0E-6
13	0.726821	Louisville (9-3)	13	1.7E-5
14	0.718021	West Virginia (10-2)	14	6.0E-6
15	0.712617	South Florida (10-2)	15	-4.79E-4
16	0.712252	San Diego State (10-3)	16	5.0E-6
17	0.707834	Boise State (10-2)	17	2.0E-6
18	0.690815	Florida State (9-3)	18	2.0E-6
19	0.690433	Appalachian State (9-3)	19	6.0E-6
20	0.67693	Houston (9-3)	20	-4.89E-4
21	0.672714	USC (9-3)	21	3.0E-6
22	0.665527	Troy (9-3)	22	7.0E-6
23	0.66239	Oklahoma State (9-3)	23	7.0E-6
24	0.659436	Toledo (9-3)	24	7.0E-6
25	0.657083	Old Dominion (9-3)	25	2.3E-5
26	0.647944	Auburn (8-4)	26	7.0E-6
27	0.64459	Air Force (9-3)	27	9.8E-5
28	0.638751	Tulsa (9-3)	28	-4.92E-4
29	0.63854	Nebraska (9-3)	29	7.0E-6
30	0.633608	Miami (8-4)	30	2.0E-5
31	0.628854	Virginia Tech (9-4)	32	0.0
32	0.621629	Stanford (9-3)	33	1.9E-5
33	0.619539	Washington State (8-4)	34	7.0E-6
34	0.605707	BYU (8-4)	35	8.0E-6
35	0.600923	Memphis (8-4)	36	-4.93E-4
36	0.595066	Texas A&M (8-4)	37	8.0E-6
37	0.59466	Kansas State (8-4)	38	8.0E-6
38	0.593479	LSU (7-4)	39	8.0E-6
39	0.593081	Navy (9-4)	31	-0.037963
40	0.584719	Florida (8-4)	40	2.4E-5
41	0.584098	Utah (8-4)	41	8.0E-6
42	0.580062	Minnesota (8-4)	42	8.0E-6
43	0.578773	Iowa (8-4)	43	8.0E-6
44	0.565073	Pittsburgh (8-4)	44	2.5E-5
45	0.563059	North Carolina (8-4)	45	2.7E-5
46	0.561661	Louisiana Tech (8-5)	46	5.4E-5
47	0.558783	Middle Tennessee (8-4)	47	2.5E-5
48	0.554303	Tennessee (8-4)	48	9.0E-6
49	0.552981	New Mexico (8-4)	49	5.0E-6
50	0.547395	Georgia Tech (8-4)	50	2.6E-5
51	0.529874	Idaho (8-4)	51	9.0E-6
52	0.524381	Army (7-5)	56	0.035257
53	0.522301	Ohio (8-5)	52	2.5E-5
54	0.5168	Colorado State (7-5)	53	6.0E-6
55	0.514245	Georgia (7-5)	54	1.0E-5
56	0.510389	Wyoming (8-5)	55	6.0E-6
57	0.488165	Arkansas State (7-5)	57	1.0E-5
58	0.478609	Eastern Michigan (7-5)	58	1.0E-5
59	0.476905	Arkansas (7-5)	59	1.0E-5
60	0.459164	Kentucky (7-5)	60	1.1E-5
61	0.451377	NC State (6-6)	61	3.0E-6
62	0.448341	Northwestern (6-6)	62	2.8E-5
63	0.431888	Baylor (6-6)	63	7.0E-6
64	0.431498	UCF (6-6)	64	-1.14E-4
65	0.430663	TCU (6-6)	65	-9.0E-6
66	0.423092	Vanderbilt (6-6)	66	1.2E-5
67	0.419116	Southern Mississippi (6-6)	67	6.2E-5
68	0.416224	Indiana (6-6)	68	2.7E-5
69	0.411292	Texas San Antonio (6-6)	69	6.2E-5
70	0.405132	Miami (OH) (6-6)	70	2.8E-5
71	0.404191	Central Michigan (6-6)	71	1.2E-5
72	0.403601	South Alabama (6-6)	72	1.2E-5
73	0.400744	Wake Forest (6-6)	73	4.74E-4
74	0.396318	Louisiana Lafayette (6-6)	74	-8.0E-6
75	0.395585	Boston College (6-6)	75	2.5E-5
76	0.394611	South Carolina (6-6)	76	-8.0E-6
77	0.369095	Maryland (6-6)	77	1.3E-5
78	0.363918	Mississippi State (5-7)	78	1.3E-5
79	0.361939	Texas (5-7)	79	2.5E-5
80	0.36078	California (5-7)	80	1.3E-5
81	0.356343	Ole Miss (5-7)	81	-7.0E-6
82	0.352919	Northern Illinois (5-7)	82	9.0E-6
83	0.347231	Georgia Southern (5-7)	83	1.3E-5
84	0.344046	Texas Tech (5-7)	84	1.3E-5
85	0.327451	SMU (5-7)	85	-4.77E-4
86	0.310647	Notre Dame (4-8)	86	1.01E-4
87	0.304533	Nevada (5-7)	87	2.7E-5
88	0.299249	Missouri (4-8)	88	1.4E-5
89	0.293391	Tulane (4-8)	89	-4.56E-4
90	0.290748	North Texas (5-7)	90	5.23E-4
91	0.288479	UCLA (4-8)	91	1.4E-5
92	0.282385	Arizona State (5-7)	92	1.5E-5
93	0.278757	Akron (5-7)	93	3.1E-5
94	0.277777	Hawaii (6-7)	94	1.1E-5
95	0.268859	Oregon State (4-8)	95	1.5E-5
96	0.265924	Oregon (4-8)	96	1.5E-5
97	0.265524	UNLV (4-8)	97	1.5E-5
98	0.25898	Duke (4-8)	98	5.04E-4
99	0.251233	Cincinnati (4-8)	99	-1.11E-4
100	0.2473	Charlotte (4-8)	100	2.8E-5
101	0.239735	Syracuse (4-8)	101	-1.2E-5
102	0.236478	Ball State (4-8)	102	3.2E-5
103	0.232271	San Jose State (4-8)	103	-8.0E-6
104	0.224585	Michigan State (3-9)	104	1.1E-5
105	0.215365	UTEP (4-8)	105	5.45E-4
106	0.207009	Florida Intl (4-8)	106	3.1E-5
107	0.20267	Utah State (3-9)	107	1.2E-5
108	0.202174	Kent State (3-9)	108	3.4E-5
109	0.20073	Iowa State (3-9)	109	1.6E-5
110	0.188047	Bowling Green (4-8)	110	1.2E-5
111	0.174474	Georgia State (3-9)	111	1.3E-5
112	0.173294	Marshall (3-9)	112	5.0E-5
113	0.171911	Louisiana Monroe (4-8)	113	1.7E-5
114	0.166155	New Mexico State (3-9)	114	3.2E-5
115	0.164187	East Carolina (3-9)	115	-4.54E-4
116	0.16165	Illinois (3-9)	116	1.7E-5
117	0.160769	Arizona (3-9)	117	1.7E-5
118	0.129123	Purdue (3-9)	118	1.8E-5
119	0.1268	Florida Atlantic (3-9)	119	5.1E-5
120	0.124019	Rice (3-9)	120	5.49E-4
121	0.122332	Connecticut (3-9)	121	-4.58E-4
122	0.078435	Virginia (2-10)	122	3.1E-5
123	0.06939	Massachusetts (2-10)	123	-1.0E-6
124	0.060273	Buffalo (2-10)	124	5.26E-4
125	0.054186	Kansas (2-10)	125	-1.0E-6
126	0.041596	Rutgers (2-10)	126	1.9E-5
127	0.0062	Fresno State (1-11)	127	-4.0E-6
128	0.000000	Texas State (2-10)	128	0.000000

Update: 12/15/16 1:35 pm - Missing data from Week 6 was reinserted and all previous week rankings regenerated. Only Week 15 rankings are updated here, but with the now-complete data set.

Watch That First Step

It's a doozy! All the talk the last couple days has been who's in and who's out of the playoff. Even if you think Western Michigan has no business being ranked as high as they are by this system, take a look at the score distribution and how sharp the dropoff is among the first few teams. You could make a case for a 6 team playoff I suppose, though under these rankings, Big T(wel(ev))en champ Penn State would still be left out in favor of Michigan. Expanding to 8 would get you the B1G champ and Big XII champ Oklahoma as well, meaning all 5 Power 5 champs get in, the top Group of 5 team, and 2 wild cards. It's a bit more equitable, but a lot of years, there's just aren't enough strong teams to justify that many games. And this year, other than a conference crown, there's not much difference between Oklahoma and Boise State. In fact, there's actually a bigger gap between #1 and #2 than there is between #8 and #16. Power is most definitely concentrated at the very tippy top this year.

Week 14 Top 25

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	Alabama (13-0)	1	0.000000
2	0.961806	Western Michigan (13-0)	2	-0.011624
3	0.9356	Ohio State (11-1)	3	-0.034353
4	0.933712	Washington (12-1)	4	0.00949
5	0.888147	Clemson (12-1)	5	-0.00518
6	0.842726	Michigan (10-2)	6	-0.028074
7	0.769909	Penn State (11-2)	9	-0.001313
8	0.743527	Oklahoma (10-2)	12	0.012328
9	0.740138	Wisconsin (10-3)	8	-0.059149
10	0.736601	Temple (10-3)	17	0.023661
11	0.731238	Western Kentucky (10-3)	14	0.005009
12	0.728942	Colorado (10-3)	7	-0.081047
13	0.725845	Louisville (9-3)	10	-0.018135
14	0.71931	West Virginia (10-2)	20	0.015696
15	0.714315	South Florida (10-2)	11	-0.019148
16	0.712473	Boise State (10-2)	13	-0.016731
17	0.690573	Florida State (9-3)	18	-0.017579
18	0.689483	Appalachian State (9-3)	19	-0.017589
19	0.677723	Houston (9-3)	22	-0.016229
20	0.676473	San Diego State (9-3)	27	0.009664
21	0.673415	USC (9-3)	23	-0.014616
22	0.665433	Troy (9-3)	16	-0.057855
23	0.662495	Oklahoma State (9-3)	15	-0.062251
24	0.660009	Toledo (9-3)	25	-0.013979
25	0.658354	Old Dominion (9-3)	26	-0.015239

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.015 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.