Chaos Rankings

Monday, December 16, 2013

Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, NM - December 21, 2013 - 2:00 PM
#77 Washington State beats #69 Colorado State by 21.9207
TeamWashington StateColorado State
SOS0.8611890.440603
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.833333 (51.384277)35.307692 (31.11335)
YPG423.166667 (728.852957)461.769231 (406.913817)
TCPG2.666667 (0.740325)1.307692 (1.463038)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.416667 (8.444336)28.615385 (32.014721)
YPG428.333333 (118.914757)417.307692 (466.881342)
TFPG2 (3.444756)1.461538 (1.287916)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.57%87.38%
Defense81.16%78.37%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.224359 (41.699499)32.862179 (19.778843)


Royal Purple Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 21, 2013 - 3:30 PM
#12 Fresno State loses to #32 USC by 15.0108
TeamFresno StateUSC
SOS0.4628650.836174
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG45.333333 (41.966427)28.538462 (47.726239)
YPG570.416667 (528.051821)392.307692 (656.074985)
TCPG1.666667 (1.79045)1.153846 (0.37806)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.083333 (31.243353)21.307692 (6.981508)
YPG425.833333 (457.459975)341.153846 (111.77974)
TFPG1.75 (1.620028)1.615385 (2.701485)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.83%83.14%
Defense78.05%71.38%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.320513 (24.473967)28.810897 (39.484796)


Famous Idaho Potato Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, ID - December 21, 2013 - 5:30 PM
#39 Buffalo beats #73 San Diego State by 3.7833
TeamBuffaloSan Diego State
SOS0.485830.545986
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.833333 (29.959517)28.166667 (30.757211)
YPG401.833333 (390.445377)422 (460.812184)
TCPG1 (1.02834)2.333333 (2.118732)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.416667 (20.995275)32.333333 (29.359572)
YPG339.666667 (349.29282)392.583333 (356.476659)
TFPG2.083333 (2.024292)1.333333 (1.455963)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense87.69%76.28%
Defense68.69%94.13%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.583333 (29.659544)24.291667 (25.876243)


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans, LA - December 21, 2013 - 9:00 PM
#59 Tulane beats #49 Louisiana-Lafayette by 8.0703
TeamTulaneLouisiana-Lafayette
SOS0.6053940.417547
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.083333 (30.370599)34.583333 (28.880334)
YPG304.166667 (368.28135)424.416667 (354.427812)
TCPG1.75 (1.381121)1.666667 (1.94151)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.166667 (16.704987)26.916667 (31.355387)
YPG353.083333 (278.657604)394 (458.972964)
TFPG2.75 (3.329667)1.666667 (1.391823)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense94.25%93.13%
Defense68.51%78.08%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26 (30.862993)27.875 (22.792661)


Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg St. Pete Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL - December 23, 2013 - 2:00 PM
#24 East Carolina beats #68 Ohio by 9.0551
TeamEast CarolinaOhio
SOS0.562590.536734
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG40.416667 (45.476025)28 (30.057104)
YPG459.833333 (517.39527)374.75 (402.282133)
TCPG1.333333 (1.166427)1.75 (1.621431)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.166667 (22.016303)26.666667 (24.70752)
YPG363.25 (317.778365)392.333333 (363.509388)
TFPG1.75 (1.969065)1.833333 (1.968025)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense100.45%85.39%
Defense79.18%77.68%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.541667 (35.091773)26.583333 (26.036704)


Sheraton Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu, HI - December 24, 2013 - 8:00 PM
#40 Boise State loses to #70 Oregon State by 6.2102
TeamBoise StateOregon State
SOS0.5568180.732222
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG38.75 (43.153395)34.5 (50.523318)
YPG470.833333 (524.33695)468.083333 (685.481829)
TCPG1.833333 (1.625001)2.083333 (1.115742)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.083333 (22.232964)32.083333 (17.182422)
YPG425.916667 (377.5172)428.166667 (229.307227)
TFPG1.833333 (2.041666)2.333333 (3.417036)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense94.06%84.23%
Defense67.31%85.64%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score35.416667 (30.167908)29.791667 (36.378141)


Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Detroit, MI - December 26, 2013 - 6:00 PM
#74 Pittsburgh beats #17 Bowling Green by 16.1463
TeamPittsburghBowling Green
SOS0.9700960.459248
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26 (50.444992)35.384615 (32.500628)
YPG351.833333 (682.624219)472.461538 (433.954033)
TCPG1.416667 (0.084728)0.846154 (0.915119)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.166667 (1.624784)14.769231 (15.972982)
YPG373.666667 (22.348256)308.692308 (333.851966)
TFPG1.333333 (2.586923)1.615385 (1.483724)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.46%85.59%
Defense83.09%54.68%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score20.384615 (33.208987)31.275641 (17.062706)


S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 26, 2013 - 9:30 PM
#37 Utah State beats #7 Northern Illinois by 12.5677
TeamUtah StateNorthern Illinois
SOS0.6097250.38998
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.615385 (39.772831)41.615385 (32.458335)
YPG420.923077 (513.294646)535.538462 (417.698578)
TCPG1.307692 (1.020719)1.153846 (1.407738)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG16.846154 (13.149265)25.384615 (30.970246)
YPG321.538462 (250.976846)424.230769 (517.578508)
TFPG2 (2.4389)2.153846 (1.679914)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense88.55%88.81%
Defense59.88%68.38%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29 (35.371538)29.230769 (22.8038)


Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman
Annapolis, MD - December 27, 2013 - 2:30 PM
#29 Marshall loses to #64 Maryland by 4.0077
TeamMarshallMaryland
SOS0.4573090.697863
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43 (39.328574)26.666667 (37.21936)
YPG502.307692 (459.419657)397 (554.103222)
TCPG1.769231 (1.920291)2.25 (1.359617)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.153846 (25.130768)24.833333 (15.006138)
YPG366.846154 (398.168212)366.75 (221.61749)
TFPG1.923077 (1.758881)1.75 (2.442521)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.83%76.77%
Defense72.13%77.39%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.916667 (27.167356)24.910256 (31.175064)


Texas Bowl
Houston, TX - December 27, 2013 - 6:00 PM
#75 Syracuse loses to #47 Minnesota by 2.4855
TeamSyracuseMinnesota
SOS0.8023160.774494
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.833333 (36.639097)26.416667 (40.9191)
YPG375.25 (602.138158)342.75 (530.915637)
TCPG1.75 (0.691894)1.25 (0.563765)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.083333 (10.312515)21.333333 (9.621589)
YPG362.583333 (143.353847)352.166667 (158.831393)
TFPG1.666667 (2.674387)1.5 (2.323482)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense69.54%88.08%
Defense82.21%69.23%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score22.083333 (23.130343)26.25 (25.615808)


Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco, CA - December 27, 2013 - 9:30 PM
#35 Brigham Young loses to #30 Washington by 4.1582
TeamBrigham YoungWashington
SOS0.815340.794339
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.333333 (51.09464)38.5 (61.164103)
YPG495.416667 (807.86605)514.333333 (817.110051)
TCPG1.666667 (0.615533)1.25 (0.514153)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.333333 (7.878827)23.416667 (9.63179)
YPG383.833333 (141.757327)381.5 (156.919343)
TFPG1.833333 (2.98958)1.833333 (2.912576)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense72.28%85.55%
Defense63.52%70.15%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.375 (30.363215)29.916667 (34.521465)


New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, NY - December 28, 2013 - 12:00 PM
#79 Rutgers loses to #45 Notre Dame by 19.5472
TeamRutgersNotre Dame
SOS0.6137040.955302
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.416667 (33.651436)27.083333 (51.745525)
YPG375.916667 (461.403124)397.666667 (759.783524)
TCPG2.166667 (1.673949)1.333333 (0.119195)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.833333 (23.048995)22.916667 (2.048658)
YPG406 (313.672352)377.083333 (33.709742)
TFPG1.416667 (1.738828)1.083333 (2.069821)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense83.35%77.83%
Defense83.98%69.46%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.166667 (17.850047)28.458333 (37.39726)


Belk Charlotte Bowl
Charlotte, NC - December 28, 2013 - 3:20 PM
#26 Cincinnati loses to #67 North Carolina by 30.8015
TeamCincinnatiNorth Carolina
SOS0.3337360.943532
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.333333 (22.249067)32.166667 (60.700559)
YPG482.333333 (321.943995)432.416667 (815.997925)
TCPG2.166667 (2.887144)1.416667 (0.159993)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.5 (25.984296)25.083333 (2.832811)
YPG313.166667 (417.303352)407.583333 (46.030831)
TFPG1.75 (1.168076)1.583333 (2.987851)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.98%85.02%
Defense71.16%70.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.208333 (12.540939)25.833333 (43.342427)


Russell Athletic Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 28, 2013 - 6:45 PM
#27 Miami (FL) beats #3 Louisville by 10.9115
TeamMiami (FL)Louisville
SOS0.7294360.438469
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.916667 (52.397819)35.083333 (30.765908)
YPG446.833333 (651.872639)453.083333 (397.325992)
TCPG1.75 (0.946974)0.833333 (0.935885)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.416667 (13.75367)12.416667 (13.944687)
YPG400.583333 (216.766858)258.166667 (289.937173)
TFPG1.916667 (2.796171)2.166667 (1.900032)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.86%88.49%
Defense72.51%54.97%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.166667 (33.171253)30.25 (22.259789)


Buffalo Wild Wings Copper Bowl
Tempe, AZ - December 28, 2013 - 10:15 PM
#55 Michigan beats #56 Kansas State by 14.1594
TeamMichiganKansas State
SOS0.9259230.679606
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.75 (62.499803)33.416667 (45.420334)
YPG382.833333 (708.948377)401.333333 (545.497083)
TCPG1.666667 (0.246923)2 (1.281576)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.5 (3.926081)23.666667 (15.165316)
YPG367.416667 (54.434249)367.083333 (235.222595)
TFPG2.083333 (3.858013)2 (2.718424)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense100.75%95.16%
Defense82.43%73.68%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.708333 (38.832559)29.958333 (24.673208)


Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Dallas, TX - December 30, 2013 - 11:45 AM
#46 Middle Tennessee loses to #42 Navy by 7.2946
TeamMiddle TennesseeNavy
SOS0.4645930.572649
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.916667 (28.727334)34.333333 (39.321898)
YPG414.5 (385.147597)413.5 (473.580723)
TCPG1.666667 (1.78469)0.666667 (0.569801)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.416667 (26.145709)25.916667 (22.151027)
YPG373.666667 (400.127498)401.916667 (343.518979)
TFPG2.416667 (2.245533)1.666667 (1.90883)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense85.24%94.89%
Defense74.68%73.69%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.416667 (25.43918)29.375 (32.733803)


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN - December 30, 2013 - 3:15 PM
#53 Ole Miss beats #50 Georgia Tech by 1.5832
TeamOle MissGeorgia Tech
SOS0.8837910.759202
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.416667 (53.763953)36.583333 (55.54828)
YPG473 (836.066286)440.666667 (669.110029)
TCPG1.666667 (0.387363)1.833333 (0.882926)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.666667 (5.965395)22.666667 (10.916176)
YPG401.583333 (93.335195)350.5 (168.799398)
TFPG1.666667 (2.94597)1.583333 (2.40414)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense73.49%94.88%
Defense73.04%73.91%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.541667 (32.340064)31.125 (30.756838)


Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX - December 30, 2013 - 6:45 PM
#10 Oregon beats #43 Texas by 1.951
TeamOregonTexas
SOS0.657630.827713
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG46.75 (61.488405)31.166667 (51.59411)
YPG573 (753.64398)423.083333 (700.38315)
TCPG1.5 (1.02711)1.666667 (0.57429)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.583333 (14.778972)25.5 (8.786637)
YPG381.25 (261.057125)402.083333 (138.547463)
TFPG2.25 (2.959335)2.166667 (3.586756)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense93.24%84.19%
Defense64.7%72.48%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.125 (35.137521)26.375 (33.186541)


National University Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 30, 2013 - 10:15 PM
#18 Arizona State beats #61 Texas Tech by 21.5433
TeamArizona StateTexas Tech
SOS0.9446440.706402
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG41 (77.460808)35.666667 (50.390009)
YPG460.846154 (870.671108)513.25 (725.121653)
TCPG1.307692 (0.144777)2.583333 (1.516923)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.153846 (3.116969)32.583333 (19.132803)
YPG393.461538 (43.560914)435.666667 (255.821724)
TFPG2.230769 (4.214566)1.5 (2.119206)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense101.68%79.42%
Defense81.78%85.47%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.791667 (48.296806)31.910256 (26.753489)


AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA - December 31, 2013 - 12:30 PM
#54 Arizona beats #65 Boston College by 7.588
TeamArizonaBoston College
SOS0.7952560.727496
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.75 (52.089268)28.416667 (41.346023)
YPG452.583333 (719.839223)368.583333 (536.285801)
TCPG1.333333 (0.545984)1.25 (0.68126)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.666667 (10.100704)26.666667 (14.533547)
YPG405.25 (165.945012)389.5 (212.280616)
TFPG1.666667 (2.650853)1.25 (1.81874)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.7%88.11%
Defense69.56%78.24%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.708333 (33.311407)26.541667 (25.723363)


Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX - December 31, 2013 - 2:00 PM
#33 Virginia Tech loses to #22 UCLA by 9.0944
TeamVirginia TechUCLA
SOS0.8860950.853155
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.416667 (41.498783)36.5 (62.280315)
YPG359.083333 (636.363893)448.166667 (764.711265)
TCPG1.5 (0.341715)1.25 (0.367113)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.666667 (4.480263)24.083333 (7.073034)
YPG302.166667 (68.836588)391.5 (114.979635)
TFPG2 (3.54438)2 (3.41262)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.53%93.08%
Defense74.38%70.3%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score23.75 (24.285908)28.083333 (33.380289)


AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN - December 31, 2013 - 4:00 PM
#23 Rice loses to #63 Mississippi State by 14.9045
TeamRiceMississippi State
SOS0.5974750.962413
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.384615 (37.503046)26.333333 (50.687085)
YPG425.615385 (508.589104)426.166667 (820.29668)
TCPG1.384615 (1.114685)1.416667 (0.106497)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.923077 (18.454223)24.333333 (1.829234)
YPG351.076923 (282.634477)366.25 (27.532478)
TFPG1.923077 (2.297981)2 (3.849652)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.27%70.62%
Defense74.62%75.93%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.858974 (19.66614)24.628205 (34.570654)


Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA - December 31, 2013 - 8:00 PM
#28 Duke loses to #36 Texas A&M by 17.4614
TeamDukeTexas A&M
SOS0.7380410.876024
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.615385 (46.6669)43.583333 (76.360092)
YPG408.076923 (602.355001)538.166667 (942.893832)
TCPG1.769231 (0.926932)1.75 (0.433916)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.692308 (12.936744)31.083333 (7.707175)
YPG408.538462 (214.040654)473.916667 (117.508585)
TFPG2 (2.952164)1.666667 (2.92008)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense88.54%92.55%
Defense69.07%74.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.349359 (27.187037)34.137821 (44.648418)


TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL - January 1, 2014 - 12:00 PM
#51 Nebraska loses to #41 Georgia by 21.6175
TeamNebraskaGeorgia
SOS0.6478890.944186
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.583333 (42.220767)38.166667 (72.072865)
YPG419 (542.930982)490 (925.30228)
TCPG2.333333 (1.643185)1.666667 (0.186047)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.666667 (16.666587)29.416667 (3.283724)
YPG328.166667 (231.102186)381.25 (42.558175)
TFPG1.083333 (1.40376)1.166667 (2.203101)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense88.87%89.02%
Defense82.42%88.18%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31 (22.752245)30.916667 (44.369726)


Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX - January 1, 2014 - 12:00 PM
#62 UNLV loses to #34 North Texas by 8.9028
TeamUNLVNorth Texas
SOS0.5517890.612552
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.25 (34.486813)31.5 (38.590776)
YPG423.833333 (467.733142)411.583333 (504.232388)
TCPG1.083333 (0.971124)1.833333 (1.420643)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.916667 (27.71438)18.083333 (14.012703)
YPG408.083333 (365.814878)355.5 (275.475528)
TFPG1.416667 (1.563402)2.75 (3.369036)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.26%87.47%
Defense86.58%58.13%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.666667 (24.249758)31.208333 (33.152578)


Capital One Citrus Bowl
Orlando, FL - January 1, 2014 - 1:00 PM
#20 Wisconsin loses to #14 South Carolina by 3.8929
TeamWisconsinSouth Carolina
SOS0.7011370.809459
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.75 (50.131296)34.083333 (55.178122)
YPG486.75 (682.55687)453.5 (734.179313)
TCPG1.25 (0.747158)1.25 (0.476353)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.333333 (10.360584)20 (7.62164)
YPG330.666667 (197.648064)345.166667 (131.536804)
TFPG1.583333 (2.220267)2.166667 (3.507656)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense83.94%85.89%
Defense59.91%66.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.875 (28.876468)25.708333 (32.769353)


Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 1, 2014 - 1:00 PM
#38 Iowa loses to #25 LSU by 4.1249
TeamIowaLSU
SOS0.7799290.73715
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.333333 (42.636119)37 (54.5491)
YPG388.666667 (606.264809)465.833333 (686.778083)
TCPG1.583333 (0.696892)1.5 (0.78855)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG18.75 (8.252663)22.666667 (11.915867)
YPG303.166667 (133.436383)349.666667 (183.819767)
TFPG1.666667 (2.599763)1.333333 (1.965733)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.37%90.77%
Defense70.68%74.08%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25 (27.275993)27.875 (31.400881)


Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO
Pasadena, CA - January 1, 2014 - 5:00 PM
#16 Stanford beats #5 Michigan State by 16.578
TeamStanfordMichigan State
SOS0.9562470.626162
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.230769 (63.553647)29.769231 (37.280722)
YPG413.153846 (790.154252)384.615385 (481.663077)
TCPG1.384615 (0.121162)1 (0.747676)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG18.615385 (1.628958)11.384615 (8.512004)
YPG339 (29.664534)234.615385 (175.416292)
TFPG1.307692 (2.500954)1.923077 (2.408315)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.92%88.46%
Defense62.76%55.46%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score22.307692 (36.032825)24.192308 (19.45484)


Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ - January 1, 2014 - 8:30 PM
#11 UCF loses to #2 Baylor by 17.7115
TeamUCFBaylor
SOS0.6091130.690008
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.166667 (40.404496)53.25 (73.485852)
YPG432 (526.273632)623.583333 (860.554977)
TCPG1.416667 (1.107513)1.25 (0.77498)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.583333 (15.309741)20.916667 (12.967999)
YPG346.333333 (270.754395)324.583333 (201.236473)
TFPG2.083333 (2.537971)1.916667 (2.645031)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense87.74%97.59%
Defense64.62%73.65%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.041667 (26.686247)36.416667 (44.397796)


Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA - January 2, 2014 - 8:30 PM
#19 Oklahoma loses to #6 Alabama by 1.8881
TeamOklahomaAlabama
SOS0.7943220.681255
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.833333 (50.571834)38.75 (52.797263)
YPG422.5 (671.20209)448.916667 (611.653448)
TCPG1.25 (0.514195)1 (0.63749)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.333333 (8.775595)11.333333 (7.224887)
YPG336.333333 (138.352735)274.666667 (175.097253)
TFPG1.75 (2.780127)1.5 (2.043765)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.11%98.65%
Defense72.49%47.16%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score21.583333 (28.89836)30.041667 (30.786429)


Discover Orange Bowl
Miami, FL - January 3, 2014 - 8:30 PM
#15 Clemson loses to #4 Ohio State by 5.4442
TeamClemsonOhio State
SOS0.6759490.68936
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG40.166667 (54.301236)46.307692 (63.845342)
YPG502 (678.652796)518.461538 (714.813292)
TCPG1.833333 (1.188187)1.153846 (0.716862)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.5 (14.582295)21.307692 (13.238043)
YPG376.416667 (243.956395)362.230769 (225.046732)
TFPG2.083333 (2.816454)1.692308 (2.333218)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.44%102.08%
Defense68.31%67.23%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.737179 (33.76964)34.403846 (39.213818)


AT&T Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX - January 3, 2014 - 7:30 PM
#13 Oklahoma State loses to #9 Missouri by 5.8229
TeamOklahoma StateMissouri
SOS0.7254630.840051
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.75 (57.674309)39 (65.523978)
YPG440.5 (639.132903)492.923077 (828.161047)
TCPG1.25 (0.686343)1 (0.319898)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20 (10.98148)22.461538 (7.185401)
YPG378.25 (207.687241)407.076923 (130.223094)
TFPG2.5 (3.627315)2.230769 (3.74792)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense103.13%90.42%
Defense60.43%63.06%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.105769 (32.429855)29.5 (38.252729)


BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, AL - January 4, 2014 - 1:00 PM
#44 Vanderbilt loses to #31 Houston by 9.0951
TeamVanderbiltHouston
SOS0.631230.707415
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.166667 (36.82175)33.916667 (47.986318)
YPG366.666667 (462.902)422.5 (597.765675)
TCPG1.666667 (1.229233)1.25 (0.731463)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.666667 (18.192653)19.083333 (11.166994)
YPG352.333333 (259.859927)389 (227.63113)
TFPG2.25 (2.840535)3 (4.24449)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.91%91.74%
Defense80.01%56.07%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.125 (23.994372)29.291667 (33.089485)


GoDaddy Danica Patrick Bowl
Mobile, AL - January 5, 2014 - 9:00 PM
#60 Arkansas State beats #21 Ball State by 7.1186
TeamArkansas StateBall State
SOS0.5698110.356571
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.666667 (33.808786)40.083333 (28.585109)
YPG413.333333 (471.04376)486.333333 (346.824726)
TCPG1.083333 (0.932076)1.5 (1.930287)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.666667 (22.943413)24.833333 (31.956974)
YPG418 (359.638004)420.75 (541.445504)
TFPG1.583333 (1.804402)2.416667 (1.723427)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.03%94.19%
Defense72.91%67.45%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.25 (32.88288)33.375 (25.764261)


VIZIO BCS National Championship Controversial Crystal Football Bowl
Pasadena, CA - January 6, 2014 - 8:30 PM
#1 Florida State loses to #8 Auburn by 3.0464
TeamFlorida StateAuburn
SOS0.6444240.894327
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG53 (68.308944)40.153846 (71.821338)
YPG529.384615 (682.296303)505.307692 (903.820625)
TCPG1.307692 (0.929968)1.384615 (0.292633)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG10.692308 (7.603856)23.769231 (5.023532)
YPG268.538462 (190.971664)410.076923 (86.668117)
TFPG2.615385 (3.370833)1.307692 (2.339009)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense114.42%90.82%
Defense45.5%66.24%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score38.384615 (36.666238)25.423077 (39.712597)


Saturday, December 14, 2013

Pre-Bowl Rankings

Last week's rankings are amended to now include today's Navy victory over Army. Complete rankings for all Div I-A teams are as follows. Here's looking forward to bowl season!


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Florida State (13-0)10.000000
20.890372Baylor (11-1)40.007177
30.858977Louisville (11-1)6-0.003764
40.858494Ohio State (12-1)2-0.059429
50.85791Michigan State (12-1)7-0.003739
60.856083Alabama (11-1)5-0.022404
70.818441Northern Illinois (12-1)3-0.065979
80.813819Auburn (12-1)11-3.98E-4
90.798638Missouri (11-2)8-0.060263
100.794855Oregon (10-2)10-0.021184
110.793657UCF (11-1)13-0.004662
120.784005Fresno State (11-1)14-0.004406
130.769627Oklahoma State (10-2)9-0.058735
140.767687South Carolina (10-2)15-0.02013
150.763874Clemson (10-2)16-0.020236
160.76302Stanford (11-2)170.005644
170.750025Bowling Green (10-3)200.009868
180.748373Arizona State (10-3)12-0.058571
190.741787Oklahoma (10-2)210.00467
200.734338Wisconsin (9-3)18-0.020764
210.725987Ball State (10-2)19-0.019917
220.694048UCLA (9-3)25-0.017995
230.691403Rice (10-3)290.011699
240.683033East Carolina (9-3)26-0.018739
250.682036LSU (9-3)27-0.018282
260.665541Cincinnati (9-3)24-0.05309
270.665531Miami (FL) (9-3)28-0.017885
280.665138Duke (10-3)22-0.061251
290.662541Marshall (9-4)23-0.056455
300.659236Washington (8-4)30-0.017665
310.653722Houston (8-4)31-0.016082
320.645464USC (9-4)34-0.01715
330.637402Virginia Tech (8-4)35-0.017378
340.633663North Texas (8-4)37-0.016018
350.63304Brigham Young (8-4)36-0.017724
360.623241Texas A&M (8-4)38-0.016476
370.622671Utah State (8-5)33-0.043332
380.621131Iowa (8-4)40-0.017009
390.617845Buffalo (8-4)43-0.014383
400.617135Boise State (8-4)41-0.016543
410.616552Georgia (8-4)42-0.016959
420.61285Navy (8-4)490.021186
430.607501Texas (8-4)32-0.059344
440.59297Vanderbilt (8-4)44-0.015895
450.591708Notre Dame (8-4)45-0.0146
460.588958Middle Tennessee (8-4)46-0.016357
470.581393Minnesota (8-4)47-0.014701
480.577726Western Kentucky (8-4)48-0.016259
490.575087Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)39-0.064439
500.56871Georgia Tech (7-5)50-0.016175
510.568517Nebraska (8-4)51-0.01571
520.56773Old Dominion (8-4)52-0.01561
530.567013Ole Miss (7-5)53-0.015714
540.561868Arizona (7-5)54-0.015348
550.561047Michigan (7-5)55-0.013948
560.545843Kansas State (7-5)56-0.015294
570.541683Toledo (7-5)57-0.014052
580.535078Penn State (7-5)58-0.014689
590.529703Tulane (7-5)59-0.012078
600.527041Arkansas State (7-5)60-0.014155
610.521657Texas Tech (7-5)61-0.015059
620.51614UNLV (7-5)62-0.013259
630.516015Mississippi State (6-6)63-0.012963
640.514389Maryland (7-5)64-0.01315
650.513561Boston College (7-5)65-0.013215
660.509391UTSA (7-5)66-0.014245
670.505691North Carolina (6-6)67-0.013883
680.504854Ohio (7-5)69-0.012783
690.504168Colorado State (7-6)68-0.013909
700.486435Oregon State (6-6)70-0.013095
710.486116South Alabama (6-6)770.03553
720.479064Florida Atlantic (6-6)71-0.013152
730.476571San Diego State (7-5)72-0.013501
740.467815Pittsburgh (6-6)73-0.011873
750.466378Syracuse (6-6)74-0.011853
760.455559San Jose State (6-6)75-0.011591
770.452561Washington State (6-6)76-0.011778
780.429863Troy (6-6)78-0.012089
790.422535Rutgers (6-6)870.027959
800.419527Texas State (6-6)79-0.011047
810.41418Louisiana-Monroe (6-6)80-0.009982
820.412428Indiana (5-7)81-0.010424
830.411948Northwestern (5-7)82-0.010799
840.410854Utah (5-7)83-0.011642
850.404258Central Michigan (6-6)84-0.011499
860.399643Tennessee (5-7)86-0.009551
870.377746Southern Methodist (5-7)85-0.03274
880.374476Wyoming (5-7)88-0.010261
890.371305Akron (5-7)89-0.010086
900.361622Florida (4-8)90-0.009854
910.353341TCU (4-8)91-0.009818
920.343124Nevada (4-8)92-0.007821
930.323619Wake Forest (4-8)93-0.008801
940.321126West Virginia (4-8)94-0.008724
950.319526Kent State (4-8)95-0.00801
960.309315Illinois (4-8)96-0.009094
970.299885Louisiana Tech (4-8)98-0.008261
980.293017North Carolina State (3-9)100-0.007982
990.292075Colorado (4-8)101-0.008259
1000.266594Army (3-9)99-0.041061
1010.258285Memphis (3-9)97-0.05047
1020.256Connecticut (3-9)1100.046995
1030.255367Iowa State (3-9)102-0.006723
1040.253983Arkansas (3-9)103-0.0072
1050.245224New Mexico (3-9)104-0.00662
1060.243573Tulsa (3-9)105-0.005685
1070.23192Kansas (3-9)106-0.005361
1080.217613Virginia (2-10)107-0.006569
1090.213986Kentucky (2-10)109-0.005687
1100.198999Temple (2-10)111-0.005662
1110.186123South Florida (2-10)108-0.035831
1120.169UAB (2-10)112-0.004778
1130.167136Air Force (2-10)113-0.004684
1140.158006UTEP (2-10)114-0.004002
1150.139821Hawaii (1-11)115-0.004048
1160.137014New Mexico State (2-10)116-0.004025
1170.116247Eastern Michigan (2-10)117-0.003086
1180.112512Western Michigan (1-11)118-0.003593
1190.110635California (1-11)119-0.003561
1200.107505Purdue (1-11)120-0.003212
1210.086214Idaho (1-11)121-0.00193
1220.082267Massachusetts (1-11)122-0.002572
1230.064502Southern Miss (1-11)123-0.003067
1240.048453Florida International (1-11)124-0.00125
1250.04199Georgia State (0-12)125-0.00171
1260.000000Miami (OH) (0-12)1260.000000

Sunday, December 08, 2013

Week 15 Top 24

Complete rankings will be posted next week, following the conclusion of the Army/Navy game. I wouldn't expect to see much impact to the current rankings as a result of that outcome however.


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Florida State (13-0)10.000000
20.890371Baylor (11-1)40.007176
30.858996Louisville (11-1)6-0.003745
40.858472Ohio State (12-1)2-0.059451
50.857867Michigan State (12-1)7-0.003782
60.856081Alabama (11-1)5-0.022406
70.818458Northern Illinois (12-1)3-0.065963
80.813816Auburn (12-1)11-4.01E-4
90.798595Missouri (11-2)8-0.060306
100.794873Oregon (10-2)10-0.021166
110.793673UCF (11-1)13-0.004645
120.783979Fresno State (11-1)14-0.004432
130.769623Oklahoma State (10-2)9-0.058739
140.767683South Carolina (10-2)15-0.020134
150.763917Clemson (10-2)16-0.020194
160.763351Stanford (11-2)170.005975
170.75Bowling Green (10-3)200.009843
180.748388Arizona State (10-3)12-0.058557
190.741762Oklahoma (10-2)210.004645
200.734311Wisconsin (9-3)18-0.02079
210.726353Ball State (10-2)19-0.019551
220.694062UCLA (9-3)25-0.017981
230.691416Rice (10-3)290.011712
240.683027East Carolina (9-3)26-0.018745

Week 15 Bottom 10


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
1170.116571Eastern Michigan (2-10)117-0.002762
1180.112515Western Michigan (1-11)118-0.00359
1190.110638California (1-11)119-0.003557
1200.107445Purdue (1-11)120-0.003273
1210.086215Idaho (1-11)121-0.001929
1220.082249Massachusetts (1-11)122-0.002589
1230.064503Southern Miss (1-11)123-0.003066
1240.048455Florida International (1-11)124-0.001248
1250.041944Georgia State (0-12)125-0.001756
1260.000000Miami (OH) (0-12)1260.000000

Sunday, December 01, 2013

Week 14 Top 24


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Florida State (12-0)10.000000
20.917923Ohio State (12-0)3-0.014619
30.884421Northern Illinois (12-0)49.3E-5
40.883195Baylor (10-1)5-0.00101
50.878488Alabama (11-1)2-0.058676
60.862741Louisville (10-1)6-0.018032
70.861649Michigan State (11-1)70.004026
80.858902Missouri (11-1)90.004343
90.828362Oklahoma State (10-1)11-0.016936
100.816039Oregon (10-2)14-1.7E-5
110.814217Auburn (11-1)12-0.003301
120.806945Arizona State (10-2)160.014688
130.798319UCF (10-1)15-0.009293
140.788412Fresno State (10-1)8-0.066199
150.787818South Carolina (10-2)170.020682
160.784111Clemson (10-2)10-0.069765
170.757376Stanford (10-2)200.008549
180.755102Wisconsin (9-3)13-0.061129
190.745904Ball State (10-2)220.017438
200.740157Bowling Green (9-3)230.018046
210.737117Oklahoma (9-2)19-0.015838
220.72639Duke (10-2)240.005498
230.718996Marshall (9-3)260.020273
240.718632Cincinnati (9-2)21-0.017621

Week 14 Bottom 10


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
1170.119333Eastern Michigan (2-10)115-0.020475
1180.116106Western Michigan (1-11)116-0.01279
1190.114196California (1-11)1180.008015
1200.110718Purdue (1-11)117-0.008363
1210.088145Idaho (1-11)121-0.009487
1220.084839Massachusetts (1-11)120-0.013608
1230.06757Southern Miss (1-11)1260.06757
1240.049703Florida International (1-11)124-0.006648
1250.043701Georgia State (0-12)123-0.013935
1260.000000Miami (OH) (0-12)125-0.012632