Chaos Rankings

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Week 9 Top 24


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Alabama (8-0)10.000000
20.930661Kansas State (8-0)2-0.004426
30.922515Oregon (8-0)40.006018
40.91204Notre Dame (8-0)3-0.007433
50.889135Florida State (8-1)7-0.005541
60.860686Ohio State (9-0)9-0.008948
70.825891Louisville (8-0)130.005952
80.813449LSU (7-1)12-0.034312
90.802573Florida (7-1)5-0.110139
100.787522Louisiana Tech (7-1)190.010746
110.786673Mississippi State (7-1)6-0.116242
120.785889Boise State (7-1)200.011544
130.784448Northern Illinois (8-1)17-8.7E-4
140.781127Clemson (7-1)210.019807
150.779456Georgia (7-1)220.02128
160.764904Ohio (7-1)10-0.090393
170.760814Rutgers (7-1)8-0.113144
180.753061Kent State (7-1)240.021782
190.749616Oregon State (6-1)11-0.101197
200.749015Tulsa (7-1)18-0.028391
210.748514Toledo (8-1)23-0.001469
220.72092South Carolina (7-2)260.005797
230.716101Utah State (7-2)300.027719
240.714449Texas Tech (6-2)14-0.101488

Week 9 Bottom 10


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
1150.144783Hawaii (1-6)116-0.004008
1160.143166Auburn (1-7)109-0.021654
1170.136565Memphis (1-7)113-0.020017
1180.13213Akron (1-8)119-0.008112
1190.128773Eastern Michigan (1-7)117-0.017388
1200.128714New Mexico State (1-7)118-0.011615
1210.090726Colorado (1-7)121-0.015282
1220.071001Idaho (1-7)1230.035751
1230.048638Southern Miss (0-8)1220.00274
1240.000000Massachusetts (0-8)1240.000000

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Inner Machinations

Since it's been asked a few times recently, and since the website that used to host the page mysteriously vanished one day, here's a PDF of the final 2005 Chaos Rankings (which didn't include bowl data) and the formula explanation. Having watched two Terminator movies today, it reminded me of how uppity people get when computers output data that doesn't seem to mesh with their preconceptions. Usually, it's just a difference of opinion, but sometimes there are bugs. I've found and corrected a couple in the software I wrote to compute Chaos Rankings, but usually they were human-induced data-entry errors. Fortunately, I spent some time in the offseason writing a parser for ESPN's scoreboard, so that's much less likely to cause problems in the future. At any rate, the objectivity of computers has been discussed at length by other people, so I won't go into it (again), but the point is that computers (unless programmed to do so) don't care about the name of the school on a jersey (like so many voters) or preseason perceptions (again, voters). But if I'm going to make a stink about poll voters entries being made public, I also have to believe that computer ranking formulas should be made public. So here you go. Other than front end GUI stuff, data source (ESPN vs NCAA), and including bowl game data, the formula and weightings used in Chaos Rankings are unchanged from those listed in the 2005 information. The only other thing to note is that I utilize the previous season's final rankings as the new season's preseason ranks and weight them 66% and 33% over the first two weeks, respectively. This is mostly to prevent huge ranking swings as a result of early losses and cupcake scheduling. But rest assured, everything tends to settle out eventually, and that "preseason" data has no bearing on anything once week 3 data is available.

Week 8 Top 24


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Alabama (7-0)10.000000
20.935088Kansas State (7-0)30.024329
30.919473Notre Dame (7-0)20.002095
40.916496Oregon (7-0)40.010596
50.912712Florida (7-0)60.025603
60.902916Mississippi State (7-0)90.021491
70.894676Florida State (7-1)50.006011
80.873958Rutgers (7-0)100.016576
90.869634Ohio State (8-0)8-0.016677
100.855298Ohio (7-0)7-0.031229
110.850814Oregon State (6-0)110.017944
120.847762LSU (7-1)120.020082
130.819939Louisville (7-0)130.004748
140.815937Texas Tech (6-1)160.009423
150.789319Oklahoma (5-1)240.039703
160.786946USC (6-1)250.037664
170.785318Northern Illinois (7-1)220.033283
180.777407Tulsa (7-1)180.013731
190.776775Louisiana Tech (6-1)270.033808
200.774345Boise State (6-1)210.021341
210.76132Clemson (6-1)320.032516
220.758175Georgia (6-1)280.015638
230.749984Toledo (7-1)330.023772
240.731278Kent State (6-1)350.032976

Week 8 Bottom 10


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
1150.152577Colorado State (1-6)1190.045807
1160.148792Hawaii (1-5)1180.040219
1170.146161Eastern Michigan (1-6)1230.12698
1180.14033New Mexico State (1-6)111-0.016975
1190.140242Akron (1-7)112-0.015756
1200.111452Tulane (1-6)1200.011133
1210.106009Colorado (1-6)117-0.013773
1220.045898Southern Miss (0-7)121-0.00725
1230.03525Idaho (1-7)122-0.004492
1240.000000Massachusetts (0-7)1240.000000

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Week 7 Top 24


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Alabama (6-0)10.000000
20.917377Notre Dame (6-0)4-0.028933
30.910759Kansas State (6-0)5-0.013302
40.9059Oregon (6-0)2-0.063814
50.888665Florida State (6-1)11-5.18E-4
60.887109Florida (6-0)8-0.016815
70.886528Ohio (7-0)7-0.025296
80.886312Ohio State (7-0)6-0.032772
90.881424Mississippi State (6-0)9-0.016209
100.857381Rutgers (6-0)13-0.011359
110.83287Oregon State (5-0)170.007064
120.827679LSU (6-1)16-5.6E-4
130.81519Louisville (6-0)15-0.017683
140.814761South Carolina (6-1)3-0.14653
150.813156Cincinnati (5-0)18-0.007695
160.806513Texas Tech (5-1)200.01284
170.783797Arizona State (5-1)21-0.001804
180.763675Tulsa (6-1)260.001328
190.762812TCU (5-1)330.027024
200.760882Texas A&M (5-1)24-0.014168
210.753004Boise State (5-1)270.001381
220.752035Northern Illinois (6-1)340.019972
230.750749Northwestern (6-1)300.005664
240.749615Oklahoma (4-1)420.055964

Week 7 Bottom 10


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
1150.148751Florida Atlantic (1-5)113-0.055695
1160.145914UTEP (1-6)114-0.056267
1170.119782Colorado (1-5)116-0.062478
1180.108572Hawaii (1-5)119-0.058906
1190.106769Colorado State (1-6)118-0.061618
1200.100319Tulane (1-5)1230.081913
1210.053148Southern Miss (0-6)121-0.039552
1220.039743Idaho (1-6)120-0.064586
1230.01918Eastern Michigan (0-6)122-0.013127
1240.000000Massachusetts (0-6)1240.000000

Sunday, October 07, 2012

Week 6 Top 24


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Alabama (5-0)10.000000
20.969714Oregon (6-0)50.053958
30.961292South Carolina (6-0)60.052669
40.946311Notre Dame (5-0)100.065356
50.924062Kansas State (5-0)130.057405
60.919085Ohio State (6-0)140.055112
70.911825Ohio (6-0)90.01875
80.903924Florida (5-0)150.040346
90.897634Mississippi State (5-0)120.030575
100.889724UTSA (5-0)8-0.010037
110.889184Florida State (5-1)2-0.095171
120.886405West Virginia (5-0)160.028738
130.868741Rutgers (5-0)210.054178
140.856873Louisiana Tech (5-0)200.042131
150.832874Louisville (5-0)19-0.011527
160.828239LSU (5-1)3-0.094403
170.825805Oregon State (4-0)220.031544
180.820852Cincinnati (4-0)250.060783
190.798086Georgia (5-1)7-0.109517
200.793672Texas Tech (4-1)4-0.123092
210.785602Arizona State (4-1)23-0.00498
220.783254Texas (4-1)11-0.093273
230.775843Clemson (5-1)280.03078
240.77505Texas A&M (4-1)260.015872

Week 6 Bottom 10


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
1150.199366UNLV (1-5)108-0.052455
1160.182261Colorado (1-4)1157.11E-4
1170.170517New Mexico State (1-5)113-0.051404
1180.168388Colorado State (1-5)112-0.053851
1190.167478Hawaii (1-4)110-0.077088
1200.104329Idaho (1-5)1240.104329
1210.092701Southern Miss (0-5)118-0.042732
1220.032308Eastern Michigan (0-5)121-0.048961
1230.018405Tulane (0-5)123-0.039616
1240.000000Massachusetts (0-6)122-0.06115