2014 Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans, LA - December 20, 2014 - 11:00 AM
#58 Nevada beats #44 Louisiana-Lafayette by 7.1967

Team	Nevada	Louisiana-Lafayette
SOS	0.492057	0.373174
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	31.333333 (30.835572)	30.583333 (22.82581)
YPG	413 (406.439082)	416.916667 (311.16492)
TCPG	1.25 (1.269858)	1.083333 (1.358123)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.166667 (28.614122)	27.916667 (34.997785)
YPG	450.083333 (457.233357)	421.916667 (528.936673)
TFPG	2 (1.968228)	1.333333 (0.995131)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	86.71%	83.84%
Defense	71.52%	75.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.625 (32.916679)	29.375 (25.719966)

Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, NM - December 20, 2014 - 2:20 PM
#35 Utah State beats #62 UTEP by 4.2263

Team	Utah State	UTEP
SOS	0.387525	0.391788
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.384615 (21.224446)	28.333333 (22.20132)
YPG	381.230769 (295.472908)	357.75 (280.324314)
TCPG	1.461538 (1.790312)	0.916667 (1.115055)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	20.769231 (25.441269)	28.666667 (34.870821)
YPG	362.307692 (443.808808)	370.416667 (450.583723)
TFPG	2.230769 (1.728958)	1.416667 (1.110066)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	82.09%	90.51%
Defense	65.51%	88.45%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.025641 (28.047634)	24.551282 (23.821295)

Royal Purple Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 20, 2014 - 3:30 PM
#41 Utah beats #15 Colorado State by 15.3265

Team	Utah	Colorado State
SOS	0.681146	0.342046
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.166667 (41.095809)	35.916667 (24.570304)
YPG	374.75 (510.518927)	497.833333 (340.563801)
TCPG	1.25 (0.797135)	1.25 (1.644885)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.166667 (16.686693)	23.416667 (30.814179)
YPG	403.166667 (257.102609)	414.75 (545.772843)
TFPG	1.583333 (2.156962)	1.5 (1.026138)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92%	82.45%
Defense	74.17%	64.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.791667 (35.954994)	31.041667 (20.628499)

Famous Idaho Potato Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, ID - December 20, 2014 - 5:45 PM
#40 Western Michigan loses to #33 Air Force by 7.5983

Team	Western Michigan	Air Force
SOS	0.203638	0.359954
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.583333 (14.084962)	30.916667 (22.257156)
YPG	443.333333 (180.559027)	423.5 (304.881038)
TCPG	1.583333 (2.521813)	1.333333 (1.706789)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.833333 (37.959922)	24.166667 (30.935557)
YPG	370.416667 (589.971515)	396.333333 (507.343129)
TFPG	1.75 (0.712733)	1.416667 (1.01987)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	89.15%	83.43%
Defense	73.53%	69.69%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.375 (22.510259)	27.375 (30.108539)

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Monotgomery, AL - December 20, 2014 - 9:15 PM
#81 South Alabama beats #76 Bowling Green by 5.1084

Team	South Alabama	Bowling Green
SOS	0.469718	0.400185
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.083333 (20.745878)	29.769231 (23.826399)
YPG	372.75 (350.174769)	428.153846 (342.681494)
TCPG	2 (2.121128)	1.692308 (2.030143)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.833333 (27.397903)	33.923077 (40.695141)
YPG	390.5 (414.150242)	499.615385 (599.353604)
TFPG	1.666667 (1.565727)	2.230769 (1.785441)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	67.71%	79.46%
Defense	75.61%	77.6%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.003205 (30.72051)	27.801282 (25.612151)

Miami Beach Bowl
Miami, FL - December 22, 2014 - 2:00 PM
#38 BYU beats #18 Memphis by 6.3311

Team	BYU	Memphis
SOS	0.476215	0.28502
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	36.166667 (34.446218)	34.666667 (19.761387)
YPG	462.5 (440.498875)	422.666667 (240.936907)
TCPG	1.916667 (2.007843)	1.25 (1.78745)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.25 (26.451143)	17.083333 (24.428483)
YPG	384.25 (402.528773)	343.25 (490.83377)
TFPG	1.583333 (1.508014)	2.083333 (1.187583)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	89.37%	93.74%
Defense	75.1%	56.88%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.625 (29.437351)	29.958333 (23.106265)

Boca Raton Old Retired People Bowl
Boca Raton, FL - December 23, 2014 - 6:00 PM
#6 Marshall beats #12 Northern Illinois by 9.3097

Team	Marshall	Northern Illinois
SOS	0.26174	0.192117
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	45.076923 (23.596868)	32.153846 (12.354601)
YPG	563.615385 (295.041382)	442.461538 (170.008767)
TCPG	1.846154 (2.725883)	0.923077 (1.491476)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	20.846154 (30.779763)	23.615385 (38.156936)
YPG	351.846154 (519.507883)	382.923077 (618.714088)
TFPG	1.615385 (0.845622)	1.615385 (0.620686)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	91.4%	83.05%
Defense	67.71%	70.48%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	34.346154 (30.876902)	26.5 (21.567182)

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 23, 2014 - 9:30 PM
#59 Navy beats #53 San Diego State by 17.1609

Team	Navy	San Diego State
SOS	0.590863	0.23808
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.083333 (39.095435)	25.75 (12.26112)
YPG	431.833333 (510.308678)	400.083333 (190.50368)
TCPG	1.5 (1.227411)	1.583333 (2.412747)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.25 (23.116241)	20.083333 (30.603787)
YPG	410.25 (335.696909)	338.666667 (516.073813)
TFPG	1.166667 (1.37868)	1.75 (0.83328)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	87.56%	73.56%
Defense	78.7%	67.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.583333 (34.849611)	27 (17.68868)

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, Bahamas - December 24, 2014 - 12:00 PM
#65 Central Michigan loses to #51 Western Kentucky by 22.8658

Team	Central Michigan	Western Kentucky
SOS	0.178251	0.571347
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.166667 (8.971967)	44 (50.278536)
YPG	380.666667 (135.708428)	525.333333 (600.295248)
TCPG	2.166667 (3.560912)	1.333333 (1.143075)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.166667 (38.07437)	39.25 (33.649261)
YPG	331.166667 (544.271754)	501.833333 (430.224728)
TFPG	1.333333 (0.475336)	1.833333 (2.094939)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	75.56%	95.72%
Defense	79.95%	89.39%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	32.208333 (21.310614)	33.583333 (44.176453)

Sheraton Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu, HI - December 24, 2014 - 8:00 PM
#88 Fresno State beats #64 Rice by 2.0713

Team	Fresno State	Rice
SOS	0.521955	0.46314
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.076923 (29.309781)	28.666667 (26.55336)
YPG	418.769231 (437.157388)	394.5 (365.41746)
TCPG	1.923077 (1.838635)	1 (1.07372)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.615385 (31.183243)	30.333333 (32.569507)
YPG	455.846154 (435.829949)	396.833333 (426.087887)
TFPG	1.384615 (1.445414)	1.5 (1.38942)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	76.62%	83.05%
Defense	81.77%	87.36%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.205128 (30.939644)	30.641026 (28.868302)

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX - December 26, 2014 - 1:00 PM
#85 Illinois beats #37 Louisiana Tech by 1.0147

Team	Illinois	Louisiana Tech
SOS	0.73701	0.555822
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.583333 (39.184365)	37.538462 (41.729406)
YPG	360.25 (531.015705)	403.846154 (448.933154)
TCPG	1.666667 (0.876633)	2 (1.776712)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.916667 (17.839488)	25.230769 (22.413905)
YPG	464.416667 (244.273878)	355.692308 (315.981396)
TFPG	1.5 (2.21103)	2.846154 (3.16391)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	84.33%	106.23%
Defense	83.46%	81.07%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.907051 (30.799135)	35.727564 (29.784447)

Quick Lane Oil Bowl
Detroit, MI - December 26, 2014 - 4:30 PM
#70 Rutgers loses to #78 North Carolina by 8.0516

Team	Rutgers	North Carolina
SOS	0.677504	0.742559
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.583333 (34.665621)	34.25 (50.865292)
YPG	378.833333 (513.322197)	424.5 (630.432591)
TCPG	1.666667 (1.074987)	1.75 (0.901044)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.916667 (19.941003)	38.916667 (20.037491)
YPG	440.333333 (284.011477)	495.916667 (255.338565)
TFPG	1.166667 (1.580843)	1.416667 (2.103917)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.18%	92.21%
Defense	80.24%	89.68%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	32.25 (27.351556)	32.583333 (35.403147)

Bitcoin Fictional Currency Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL - December 26, 2014 - 8:00 PM
#50 North Carolina State beats #28 UCF by 16.2583

Team	North Carolina State	UCF
SOS	0.664634	0.269767
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.833333 (39.656495)	28.166667 (15.196874)
YPG	402.166667 (534.587281)	363.083333 (195.895803)
TCPG	1.166667 (0.782521)	2.333333 (3.407754)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27 (18.109764)	17.916667 (26.166683)
YPG	373.083333 (250.23893)	282.833333 (413.068467)
TFPG	1.5 (1.993902)	2 (1.079068)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	84.78%	88.66%
Defense	82.71%	72.4%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.875 (32.911589)	27.583333 (16.653319)

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman USNA Bowl
Annapolis, MD - December 27, 2014 - 1:00 PM
#29 Cincinnati loses to #71 Virginia Tech by 7.3387

Team	Cincinnati	Virginia Tech
SOS	0.490948	0.720593
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35.416667 (34.775483)	23.333333 (33.627673)
YPG	457.75 (449.462894)	367.916667 (530.236349)
TCPG	1.583333 (1.611998)	2.083333 (1.164196)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.75 (27.234282)	20.416667 (11.409119)
YPG	447.25 (455.347014)	331.666667 (185.339977)
TFPG	1.916667 (1.881967)	1.416667 (2.04168)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	88.42%	72.48%
Defense	68.35%	70.35%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.916667 (23.092301)	25.041667 (30.430978)

Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX - December 27, 2014 - 2:00 PM
#24 Arizona State beats #27 Duke by 16.0866

Team	Arizona State	Duke
SOS	0.588857	0.28087
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	37 (43.575418)	32.5 (18.25655)
YPG	446.5 (525.849301)	398.166667 (223.666143)
TCPG	1.083333 (0.89081)	1.083333 (1.558115)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.666667 (22.749913)	20.583333 (29.604185)
YPG	418.5 (344.126691)	399 (573.86574)
TFPG	2.083333 (2.453571)	1.75 (0.983045)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	94.7%	93.28%
Defense	75.55%	58.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.791667 (36.589802)	30.083333 (20.503231)

Duck Commander Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA - December 27, 2014 - 3:30 PM
#63 Miami (FL) beats #73 South Carolina by 7.9508

Team	Miami (FL)	South Carolina
SOS	0.84906	0.696807
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.916667 (50.80209)	33.333333 (46.4538)
YPG	431 (731.88972)	450.833333 (628.287645)
TCPG	1.833333 (0.553447)	1.75 (1.061176)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.333333 (7.345747)	31.166667 (18.89903)
YPG	327.583333 (98.890857)	433.583333 (262.918863)
TFPG	1.75 (2.97171)	1.416667 (1.974287)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	79.33%	84.5%
Defense	84.89%	82.15%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.541667 (34.85056)	28.833333 (26.899773)

New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, NY - December 27, 2014 - 4:30 PM
#48 Boston College beats #69 Penn State by 1.1707

Team	Boston College	Penn State
SOS	0.648096	0.696973
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.916667 (33.592976)	19.75 (27.530434)
YPG	383.833333 (497.521696)	325.5 (453.729423)
TCPG	1.083333 (0.762459)	2 (1.212108)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	20.5 (14.428064)	17.666667 (10.706954)
YPG	312.833333 (220.174603)	269.75 (163.483067)
TFPG	0.916667 (1.188176)	1.666667 (2.323243)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.17%	69.34%
Defense	74.89%	74.85%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	21.791667 (22.149965)	20.125 (20.979249)

National University Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 27, 2014 - 8:00 PM
#25 Nebraska loses to #31 USC by 10.5598

Team	Nebraska	USC
SOS	0.546794	0.739622
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	37.416667 (40.918418)	35.083333 (51.89681)
YPG	446.25 (488.013645)	452.75 (669.727721)
TCPG	2 (1.812824)	0.916667 (0.47736)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.833333 (22.509231)	23.75 (12.367955)
YPG	372.75 (337.865073)	400.166667 (208.389193)
TFPG	1.833333 (2.004911)	1.5 (2.218866)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	95.82%	88.56%
Defense	76.14%	67.83%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.583333 (26.643186)	29.958333 (37.203021)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN - December 29, 2014 - 2:00 PM
#60 Texas A&M beats #54 West Virginia by 5.5299

Team	Texas A&M	West Virginia
SOS	0.79036	0.709688
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.416667 (54.403113)	33.166667 (47.075971)
YPG	449.25 (710.13846)	502.083333 (712.645033)
TCPG	1.583333 (0.66386)	2.333333 (1.354789)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.333333 (11.46032)	26.166667 (15.192995)
YPG	449 (188.25672)	388.583333 (225.620809)
TFPG	0.916667 (1.448993)	1 (1.419376)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	87.55%	75.49%
Defense	69.57%	76.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.291667 (34.798054)	30.25 (29.268145)

Russell Athletic Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 29, 2014 - 5:30 PM
#34 Oklahoma beats #17 Clemson by 8.0191

Team	Oklahoma	Clemson
SOS	0.689408	0.602235
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	38.916667 (53.658923)	30.083333 (36.234473)
YPG	480.5 (662.521088)	410.083333 (493.933073)
TCPG	1.583333 (0.983541)	1.416667 (1.127001)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.75 (15.374304)	17.583333 (13.988069)
YPG	382.25 (237.447584)	259.833333 (206.705212)
TFPG	1.5 (2.068224)	1.583333 (1.907078)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.56%	83.84%
Defense	74%	77.34%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.25 (33.823496)	27.416667 (25.804388)

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Houston, TX - December 29, 2014 - 9:00 PM
#52 Arkansas beats #72 Texas by 18.4855

Team	Arkansas	Texas
SOS	1	0.802134
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32 (64)	22.583333 (36.229719)
YPG	410.583333 (821.166667)	360.583333 (578.472303)
TCPG	1.416667 (0)	1.916667 (0.758486)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	20.25 (0)	23.25 (9.200769)
YPG	345.416667 (0)	348.333333 (137.846647)
TFPG	1.75 (3.5)	1.5 (2.406402)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	89.07%	71.58%
Defense	67%	76.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.625 (36.600385)	21.416667 (18.11486)

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN - December 30, 2014 - 3:00 PM
#55 Notre Dame beats #32 LSU by 2.3601

Team	Notre Dame	LSU
SOS	0.798495	0.784384
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33 (52.70067)	27.583333 (43.271851)
YPG	444.833333 (710.394385)	383.75 (602.01472)
TCPG	2.166667 (0.873188)	1.333333 (0.574976)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.25 (11.788043)	16.416667 (7.079392)
YPG	401 (161.60701)	305.833333 (131.88512)
TFPG	1.666667 (2.66165)	1.5 (2.353152)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	84.78%	82.15%
Defense	83.36%	61.35%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.708333 (29.890031)	28.416667 (27.529947)

Belk Charlotte Bowl
Charlotte, NC - December 30, 2014 - 6:30 PM
#11 Georgia beats #20 Louisville by 9.6718

Team	Georgia	Louisville
SOS	0.637168	0.55887
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	41.666667 (53.097333)	32.583333 (36.419695)
YPG	454.916667 (579.716685)	396.25 (442.904475)
TCPG	0.916667 (0.665192)	1.916667 (1.690998)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.25 (15.42036)	20.5 (18.08633)
YPG	334 (242.371776)	294.083333 (259.457962)
TFPG	2.083333 (2.654867)	2.083333 (2.328625)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	104.68%	93.98%
Defense	72.71%	79.67%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.083333 (35.591832)	26.916667 (25.920028)

Foster Farms 49ers Bowl
Santa Clara, CA - December 30, 2014 - 10:00 PM
#66 Maryland loses to #45 Stanford by 4.3162

Team	Maryland	Stanford
SOS	0.640506	0.685173
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.083333 (37.256099)	25.666667 (35.172214)
YPG	352.083333 (451.022975)	386.416667 (529.524534)
TCPG	1.75 (1.258229)	1.666667 (1.049423)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.916667 (20.790736)	16 (10.074464)
YPG	438.083333 (314.97666)	287.416667 (180.973054)
TFPG	1.5 (1.921518)	1 (1.370346)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	94.4%	75.91%
Defense	75.44%	63.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	22.541667 (23.665282)	27.291667 (27.981475)

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA - December 31, 2014 - 12:30 PM
#13 Ole Miss beats #3 TCU by 16.8763

Team	Ole Miss	TCU
SOS	0.918609	0.450702
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.416667 (55.882048)	46.833333 (42.215754)
YPG	443.5 (814.806183)	542.166667 (488.711202)
TCPG	1.75 (0.284869)	1.5 (1.647894)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.833333 (2.251818)	20.333333 (22.338119)
YPG	321.583333 (52.347978)	359.5 (394.945262)
TFPG	2 (3.674436)	2.833333 (2.553978)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	78.38%	98.72%
Defense	49.16%	64.64%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.375 (39.110083)	30.333333 (22.233786)

VIZIO Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ - December 31, 2014 - 4:00 PM
#9 Boise State loses to #21 Arizona by 2.3926

Team	Boise State	Arizona
SOS	0.697069	0.795894
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	39.846154 (55.551037)	34.846154 (55.46769)
YPG	496.076923 (691.599689)	461.461538 (734.548939)
TCPG	1.692308 (1.025305)	1.230769 (0.502415)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.538462 (16.078645)	27.461538 (11.21013)
YPG	366.461538 (222.025121)	449.461538 (183.475594)
TFPG	2 (2.788276)	1.769231 (2.81624)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	91.8%	86.3%
Defense	82.76%	69.83%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.653846 (33.380583)	30.692308 (35.773167)

Capital One Orange Bowl
Miami, FL - December 31, 2014 - 8:00 PM
#10 Mississippi State loses to #16 Georgia Tech by 5.1812

Team	Mississippi State	Georgia Tech
SOS	0.654746	0.771449
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	37.166667 (48.669453)	37 (57.087226)
YPG	506.166667 (662.821201)	468.769231 (723.263109)
TCPG	1.75 (1.208389)	1.307692 (0.597749)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.416667 (13.407364)	25.076923 (11.462712)
YPG	411.666667 (284.259127)	396.384615 (181.1882)
TFPG	1.583333 (2.073362)	2.076923 (3.20448)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	83.92%	90.21%
Defense	53.9%	72.3%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.121795 (30.066082)	28.208333 (35.247295)

Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 1, 2015 - 12:00 PM
#30 Auburn beats #14 Wisconsin by 19.1738

Team	Auburn	Wisconsin
SOS	0.949518	0.614001
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35.833333 (68.04879)	34.615385 (42.507762)
YPG	489.416667 (929.419869)	464.846154 (570.832007)
TCPG	1.666667 (0.168273)	1.769231 (1.365843)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.083333 (2.633478)	20 (15.43996)
YPG	389.25 (39.300237)	283.538462 (218.891125)
TFPG	1.916667 (3.639819)	1.230769 (1.511387)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	83.68%	85.1%
Defense	76.58%	80.61%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.916667 (41.744375)	30.349359 (22.57062)

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Arlington, TX - January 1, 2015 - 12:30 PM
#8 Michigan State beats #4 Baylor by 9.0287

Team	Michigan State	Baylor
SOS	0.524968	0.387593
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	43.083333 (45.234743)	48.833333 (37.854916)
YPG	496.5 (521.293224)	581.333333 (450.641461)
TCPG	1.083333 (1.029236)	1 (1.224814)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.916667 (18.922108)	24.166667 (29.599672)
YPG	293.5 (278.843784)	367.666667 (450.323281)
TFPG	2.5 (2.62484)	1.75 (1.356576)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	99.17%	96%
Defense	77.55%	75.12%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.625 (37.417207)	34.375 (28.388512)

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Orlando, FL - January 1, 2015 - 1:00 PM
#23 Missouri beats #39 Minnesota by 0.6438

Team	Missouri	Minnesota
SOS	0.681099	0.656017
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.384615 (37.303268)	29.333333 (38.486331)
YPG	361.461538 (492.382185)	355.833333 (466.865432)
TCPG	1.076923 (0.686864)	1.416667 (0.974619)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.384615 (13.63915)	23.416667 (16.109871)
YPG	344.769231 (219.894505)	362.666667 (249.502336)
TFPG	1.461538 (1.990905)	2.083333 (2.733404)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	86.58%	94.21%
Defense	70.89%	73.79%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.400641 (26.706569)	25.358974 (26.062741)

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwesten Mutual Semifinal (SEMI) Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA - January 1, 2015 - 5:00 PM
#2 Oregon beats #7 Florida State by 7.8159

Team	Oregon	Florida State
SOS	0.655367	0.654183
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	46.307692 (60.697067)	34.769231 (45.490879)
YPG	546.230769 (715.963241)	434.769231 (568.837279)
TCPG	0.615385 (0.424164)	2.076923 (1.436471)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.461538 (15.481975)	23 (15.907582)
YPG	413.769231 (285.197063)	378.307692 (261.650462)
TFPG	1.846154 (2.419817)	1.692308 (2.214158)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	96.89%	91.4%
Defense	62.04%	69.48%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	34.653846 (38.302324)	28.615385 (30.486427)

Allstate (SEMI) Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA - January 1, 2015 - 8:30 PM
#5 Alabama loses to #1 Ohio State by 4.7898

Team	Alabama	Ohio State
SOS	0.763395	0.757958
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	37.076923 (56.608675)	45.230769 (68.566047)
YPG	488.384615 (745.660747)	507.615385 (769.502283)
TCPG	1.461538 (0.691615)	1.538462 (0.744745)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	16.615385 (7.862566)	21.153846 (10.240238)
YPG	311.923077 (147.605119)	328 (158.779552)
TFPG	1.384615 (2.114017)	2.153846 (3.26505)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	86.76%	101.83%
Defense	60.88%	73.71%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.115385 (33.424457)	30.923077 (38.214306)

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX - January 2, 2015 - 12:00 PM
#46 Houston loses to #67 Pittsburgh by 12.6682

Team	Houston	Pittsburgh
SOS	0.216939	0.512584
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.333333 (12.727088)	31.666667 (32.463653)
YPG	408.666667 (177.311476)	434.25 (445.179204)
TCPG	1.833333 (2.871224)	1.583333 (1.543484)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.5 (30.539379)	25.583333 (24.939452)
YPG	334.916667 (524.52036)	348.666667 (339.891424)
TFPG	2.416667 (1.048539)	0.916667 (0.939737)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	82.03%	83.34%
Defense	66.54%	83.86%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.458333 (18.83327)	25.583333 (31.501516)

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL - January 2, 2015 - 3:20 PM
#61 Iowa loses to #68 Tennessee by 20.844

Team	Iowa	Tennessee
SOS	0.414044	0.823193
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.25 (23.393486)	27.583333 (45.412814)
YPG	398.333333 (329.855053)	363 (597.638118)
TCPG	1.666667 (1.953187)	1.75 (0.618825)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24 (28.125888)	23.916667 (8.457268)
YPG	334.333333 (391.809245)	359.916667 (127.271572)
TFPG	1.083333 (0.897095)	1.583333 (2.606778)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.05%	86.84%
Defense	82.04%	75.94%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.083333 (15.925377)	25.791667 (36.769351)

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX - January 2, 2015 - 6:45 PM
#19 Kansas State loses to #26 UCLA by 15.9907

Team	Kansas State	UCLA
SOS	0.622753	0.953394
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35.833333 (44.630632)	32.916667 (62.765105)
YPG	426 (530.585556)	467.916667 (892.217885)
TCPG	0.916667 (0.69162)	1.25 (0.116515)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.75 (16.410245)	27.5 (2.56333)
YPG	361.333333 (272.623832)	401 (37.378012)
TFPG	1.583333 (1.972051)	0.916667 (1.747889)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	96.13%	80.4%
Defense	68.79%	78.38%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.666667 (23.596981)	27.333333 (39.587675)

Ticketcity Cactus Bowl
Tempe, AZ - January 2, 2015 - 10:15 PM
#43 Washington loses to #84 Oklahoma State by 5.9891

Team	Washington	Oklahoma State
SOS	0.483417	0.678328
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.846154 (29.82311)	27.416667 (37.194985)
YPG	390.230769 (377.288376)	371.083333 (503.432431)
TCPG	1.153846 (1.192115)	1.666667 (1.07224)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.384615 (25.193356)	32 (20.587008)
YPG	405.769231 (419.226973)	437.25 (281.302164)
TFPG	2.076923 (2.00804)	0.833333 (1.130547)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	90.34%	84.44%
Defense	68.68%	83.64%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.423077 (25.205059)	25.900641 (31.19417)

Birmingham Farewell UAB Blazers Bowl
Birmingham, AL - January 3, 2015 - 12:00 PM
#36 East Carolina loses to #49 Florida by 23.7243

Team	East Carolina	Florida
SOS	0.261615	0.69094
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	37.166667 (19.446715)	30.454545 (42.084527)
YPG	532.166667 (278.445565)	370.181818 (511.546851)
TCPG	1.666667 (2.461283)	1.909091 (1.180047)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.666667 (37.903763)	21.181818 (13.092905)
YPG	369.666667 (545.912643)	308.545455 (190.718116)
TFPG	1.25 (0.654038)	2.454545 (3.391887)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	79.82%	94.02%
Defense	79.35%	78.46%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.174242 (16.26981)	28.060606 (39.994145)

GoDaddy Danica Patrick Bowl
Mobile, AL - January 4, 2015 - 9:00 PM
#42 Toledo beats #47 Arkansas State by 3.5383

Team	Toledo	Arkansas State
SOS	0.308793	0.228155
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.416667 (21.255252)	36.083333 (16.465186)
YPG	486.333333 (300.352658)	477.166667 (217.735922)
TCPG	1.333333 (1.843219)	1.666667 (2.572817)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.333333 (40.550811)	27.75 (42.837398)
YPG	402.916667 (556.997641)	411.25 (634.842513)
TFPG	0.916667 (0.566121)	2.083333 (0.950646)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.88%	86.42%
Defense	83.2%	77.12%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.083333 (32.046325)	32.708333 (28.507998)

CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T (FINAL) CFP Championship Bowl
Arlington, TX - January 12, 2015 - 8:30 PM
#2 Oregon* loses to #1 Ohio State* by 6.5554

Team	Oregon	Ohio State
SOS	0.655367	0.757958
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	46.307692 (60.697067)	45.230769 (68.566047)
YPG	546.230769 (715.963241)	507.615385 (769.502283)
TCPG	0.615385 (0.424164)	1.538462 (0.744745)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.461538 (15.481975)	21.153846 (10.240238)
YPG	413.769231 (285.197063)	328 (158.779552)
TFPG	1.846154 (2.419817)	2.153846 (3.26505)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	96.89%	101.83%
Defense	62.04%	73.71%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.730769 (35.468653)	33.846154 (42.024011)

*teams shown based on predicted winners of the SEMI games

Week 16 Rankings (Pre-Bowls)

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	Ohio State (12-1)	1	0.000000
2	0.998949	Oregon (12-1)	2	-3.01E-4
3	0.983254	TCU (11-1)	3	-2.81E-4
4	0.971247	Baylor (11-1)	4	-2.93E-4
5	0.969604	Alabama (12-1)	5	-2.75E-4
6	0.957745	Marshall (12-1)	6	-2.88E-4
7	0.94704	Florida State (13-0)	7	-2.64E-4
8	0.932078	Michigan State (10-2)	8	-2.29E-4
9	0.881066	Boise State (11-2)	9	-2.62E-4
10	0.843484	Mississippi State (10-2)	10	-2.17E-4
11	0.832033	Georgia (9-3)	11	-2.35E-4
12	0.830993	Northern Illinois (11-2)	12	-2.63E-4
13	0.821795	Ole Miss (9-3)	13	-2.3E-4
14	0.813047	Wisconsin (10-3)	14	-1.96E-4
15	0.811264	Colorado State (10-2)	15	-2.06E-4
16	0.810513	Georgia Tech (10-3)	16	-2.11E-4
17	0.791772	Clemson (9-3)	17	-2.37E-4
18	0.786119	Memphis (9-3)	18	-2.18E-4
19	0.781296	Kansas State (9-3)	19	-2.17E-4
20	0.773647	Louisville (9-3)	20	-2.14E-4
21	0.772332	Arizona (10-3)	21	-2.15E-4
22	0.769397	Georgia Southern (9-3)	22	1.54E-4
23	0.765618	Missouri (10-3)	23	-2.13E-4
24	0.757265	Arizona State (9-3)	24	-2.08E-4
25	0.745433	Nebraska (9-3)	25	-1.88E-4
26	0.745397	UCLA (9-3)	26	-2.21E-4
27	0.732447	Duke (9-3)	27	-2.18E-4
28	0.73095	UCF (9-3)	28	-2.0E-4
29	0.724803	Cincinnati (9-3)	29	-1.81E-4
30	0.719523	Auburn (8-4)	30	-1.82E-4
31	0.717541	USC (8-4)	31	-1.97E-4
32	0.714488	LSU (8-4)	32	-1.97E-4
33	0.710776	Air Force (9-3)	33	-1.83E-4
34	0.708346	Oklahoma (8-4)	34	-1.97E-4
35	0.696515	Utah State (9-4)	35	-1.9E-4
36	0.682766	East Carolina (8-4)	36	-1.88E-4
37	0.677542	Louisiana Tech (8-5)	37	-2.03E-4
38	0.675948	BYU (8-4)	38	-2.03E-4
39	0.675345	Minnesota (8-4)	39	-1.5E-4
40	0.669844	Western Michigan (8-4)	40	-2.01E-4
41	0.647427	Utah (8-4)	41	-1.93E-4
42	0.644362	Toledo (8-4)	42	-2.1E-4
43	0.634308	Washington (8-5)	43	-1.9E-4
44	0.631995	Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)	44	-1.36E-4
45	0.627496	Stanford (7-5)	45	-4.91E-4
46	0.621963	Houston (7-5)	46	-1.53E-4
47	0.610098	Arkansas State (7-5)	47	-1.32E-4
48	0.609818	Boston College (7-5)	48	-1.84E-4
49	0.605392	Florida (6-5)	49	-1.66E-4
50	0.602818	North Carolina State (7-5)	50	-1.63E-4
51	0.601621	Western Kentucky (7-5)	51	-1.42E-4
52	0.599708	Arkansas (6-6)	52	-1.65E-4
53	0.595132	San Diego State (7-5)	53	-1.43E-4
54	0.59484	West Virginia (7-5)	54	-1.63E-4
55	0.594674	Notre Dame (7-5)	55	1.15E-4
56	0.59302	Appalachian State (7-5)	56	-1.23E-4
57	0.586807	Texas State (7-5)	58	2.04E-4
58	0.586657	Nevada (7-5)	57	-1.4E-4
59	0.5812	Navy (7-5)	65	0.029244
60	0.581171	Texas A&M (7-5)	59	-1.74E-4
61	0.579968	Iowa (7-5)	60	-1.74E-4
62	0.575174	UTEP (7-5)	61	-1.7E-4
63	0.574049	Miami (FL) (6-6)	62	-1.58E-4
64	0.570616	Rice (7-5)	63	-4.47E-4
65	0.554054	Central Michigan (7-5)	64	-1.83E-4
66	0.542495	Maryland (7-5)	66	-1.09E-4
67	0.535504	Pittsburgh (6-6)	67	-1.46E-4
68	0.533684	Tennessee (6-6)	68	-1.44E-4
69	0.5313	Penn State (6-6)	69	-9.3E-5
70	0.525285	Rutgers (7-5)	70	1.8E-4
71	0.521137	Virginia Tech (6-6)	71	-1.39E-4
72	0.516595	Texas (6-6)	72	-1.39E-4
73	0.513836	South Carolina (6-6)	73	-1.2E-4
74	0.51042	UAB (6-6)	74	-1.36E-4
75	0.50785	Temple (6-6)	75	1.8E-4
76	0.504082	Bowling Green (7-6)	76	-1.62E-4
77	0.48442	Middle Tennessee (6-6)	77	-1.27E-4
78	0.483158	North Carolina (6-6)	78	-1.1E-4
79	0.477971	Virginia (5-7)	79	-1.46E-4
80	0.473012	Old Dominion (6-6)	80	-1.4E-4
81	0.471229	South Alabama (6-6)	81	2.4E-4
82	0.459835	Ohio (6-6)	82	-1.55E-4
83	0.455843	Kentucky (5-7)	83	-1.22E-4
84	0.45379	Oklahoma State (6-6)	84	-1.19E-4
85	0.452546	Illinois (6-6)	85	-8.0E-5
86	0.447989	Buffalo (5-6)	86	-4.23E-4
87	0.438186	Northwestern (5-7)	87	-9.9E-5
88	0.433122	Fresno State (6-7)	88	-9.7E-5
89	0.432794	California (5-7)	89	-1.31E-4
90	0.43175	Oregon State (5-7)	90	-1.31E-4
91	0.425068	Ball State (5-7)	91	-3.83E-4
92	0.417896	Michigan (5-7)	92	-5.9E-5
93	0.414496	Akron (5-7)	93	-1.59E-4
94	0.351897	Florida International (4-8)	94	-1.1E-4
95	0.346642	Indiana (4-8)	95	-5.4E-5
96	0.343885	Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)	96	-7.0E-5
97	0.341531	North Texas (4-8)	98	-1.05E-4
98	0.327257	Wyoming (4-8)	99	-6.4E-5
99	0.32496	New Mexico (4-8)	100	-8.0E-5
100	0.322893	Texas Tech (4-8)	101	-8.1E-5
101	0.315776	Army (4-8)	97	-0.026506
102	0.3126	UTSA (4-8)	102	-9.3E-5
103	0.309259	South Florida (4-8)	103	-9.4E-5
104	0.29421	Syracuse (3-9)	104	-7.4E-5
105	0.29258	Washington State (3-9)	105	-7.3E-5
106	0.288185	Hawaii (4-9)	106	-6.9E-5
107	0.270629	Tulane (3-9)	107	-4.8E-5
108	0.267716	San Jose State (3-9)	108	2.59E-4
109	0.267012	Purdue (3-9)	109	-4.7E-5
110	0.259392	Massachusetts (3-9)	110	-1.1E-4
111	0.249829	Florida Atlantic (3-9)	111	-5.8E-5
112	0.242187	Kansas (3-9)	112	-5.8E-5
113	0.242122	Troy (3-9)	113	-2.1E-5
114	0.224656	Wake Forest (3-9)	114	-3.7E-4
115	0.223883	Southern Miss (3-9)	115	-6.8E-5
116	0.212304	Colorado (2-10)	116	-5.0E-5
117	0.209558	Miami (OH) (2-10)	117	-8.3E-5
118	0.19637	Vanderbilt (3-9)	118	-2.5E-5
119	0.193581	Kent State (2-9)	119	-3.42E-4
120	0.171683	Tulsa (2-10)	120	-3.0E-6
121	0.169293	Iowa State (2-10)	121	-3.6E-5
122	0.147963	New Mexico State (2-10)	122	7.0E-6
123	0.137806	Connecticut (2-10)	123	-3.12E-4
124	0.137802	Idaho (1-10)	124	2.5E-5
125	0.118625	UNLV (2-11)	125	-1.0E-6
126	0.064588	Eastern Michigan (2-10)	126	-3.6E-5
127	0.0326	Georgia State (1-11)	127	6.1E-5
128	0.000000	SMU (1-11)	128	0.000000

Week 15 Top 25

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	Ohio State (12-1)	2	0.006551
2	0.99925	Oregon (12-1)	1	-7.49E-4
3	0.983536	TCU (11-1)	3	-0.005403
4	0.971541	Baylor (11-1)	4	-0.015282
5	0.96988	Alabama (12-1)	6	-0.011021
6	0.958033	Marshall (12-1)	5	-0.023595
7	0.947304	Florida State (13-0)	8	-0.022591
8	0.932308	Michigan State (10-2)	7	-0.04289
9	0.881329	Boise State (11-2)	10	-0.020809
10	0.843702	Mississippi State (10-2)	12	-0.045386
11	0.832268	Georgia (9-3)	13	-0.046323
12	0.831257	Northern Illinois (11-2)	20	-0.005051
13	0.822025	Ole Miss (9-3)	16	-0.045115
14	0.813243	Wisconsin (10-3)	9	-0.114299
15	0.81147	Colorado State (10-2)	18	-0.045899
16	0.810725	Georgia Tech (10-3)	11	-0.085425
17	0.792009	Clemson (9-3)	19	-0.046066
18	0.786337	Memphis (9-3)	21	-0.045911
19	0.781514	Kansas State (9-3)	15	-0.090496
20	0.773861	Louisville (9-3)	22	-0.045921
21	0.772547	Arizona (10-3)	14	-0.105407
22	0.769243	Georgia Southern (9-3)	23	-0.046217
23	0.765831	Missouri (10-3)	17	-0.09584
24	0.757474	Arizona State (9-3)	24	-0.047386
25	0.745622	Nebraska (9-3)	26	-0.047873

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.015 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.

Week 14 Top 25

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	Oregon (11-1)	2	0.062847
2	0.993448	Ohio State (11-1)	5	0.063965
3	0.988939	TCU (10-1)	7	0.073302
4	0.986823	Baylor (10-1)	3	0.053266
5	0.981629	Marshall (11-1)	1	-0.01837
6	0.980902	Alabama (11-1)	4	0.050131
7	0.975199	Michigan State (10-2)	8	0.06567
8	0.969896	Florida State (12-0)	6	0.049617
9	0.927542	Wisconsin (10-2)	11	0.064207
10	0.902139	Boise State (10-2)	14	0.077479
11	0.896151	Georgia Tech (10-2)	13	0.065055
12	0.889088	Mississippi State (10-2)	9	-0.009173
13	0.878591	Georgia (9-3)	10	-0.011315
14	0.877955	Arizona (10-2)	15	0.057669
15	0.87201	Kansas State (9-2)	20	0.075278
16	0.86714	Ole Miss (9-3)	18	0.063767
17	0.861671	Missouri (10-2)	19	0.059776
18	0.85737	Colorado State (10-2)	12	-0.004134
19	0.838076	Clemson (9-3)	21	0.065622
20	0.836308	Northern Illinois (10-2)	22	0.068664
21	0.832248	Memphis (9-3)	25	0.068248
22	0.819783	Louisville (9-3)	24	0.054866
23	0.81546	Georgia Southern (9-3)	28	0.064973
24	0.804861	Arizona State (9-3)	17	-0.004343
25	0.795622	Oklahoma (8-3)	27	0.035616

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.012 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.