Chaos Rankings

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Conference Rankings

There's not a clear-cut #1 conference (sorry, SEC truthers), but there are some pretty clear tiers this year. You can make a compelling case that the Pac 12 and SEC are the two best conferences, followed by the ACC and Big Ten (I'm as shocked as you are). I'm willfully ignoring anything labeled IND, since it's not really a conference, and with only 4 teams in that classification, the sample size is really too small to provide any meaningful statistical information either via mean or median. After that is the Big XII. Then a log jam of the AAC, CUSA, and MWC. Bringing up the rear is the MAC, and finally the lowly Sun Belt. I'm generally inclined to use the median as the prime indicator here (as opposed to the mean) since it's less prone to being skewed by outliers. And if you put a gun to my head and asked me to choose a "best" conference, I'd say Pac 12 for the following reasons: better median than SEC, better best team (Oregon vs Alabama), better worst team (Colorado vs Vanderbilt), and a winning record against every other conference they played (the SEC had a losing record vs the ACC and only hit .500 against the Big Ten).
For 3rd place, the ACC's composite score edge over the Big Ten is so marginal, you could point at the 1-5 record and the fact that Ohio State is the national champion and convince me that the Big Ten is better than the ACC pretty easily. I wouldn't argue that the top 25% of the Big Ten is likely better than the top of the ACC, but the higher median tells us that the middle of the pack teams in the ACC are better, but again, we're really splitting hairs at this point.
Meanwhile, woe is the Big XII, who managed the strange feat of placing 2 teams in the top 10, but whose 3rd and 4th best teams are #26 Kansas State and #40 Oklahoma (compared to the Big Ten with 3 in the top 13, 4 in the top 30, the SEC with 4 in the top 16, 5 in the top 21, the ACC's 3 of the top 12 and 5 of the top 33, or the Pac 12's 5 in the top 24 and 7 in the top 39). Hell, the Mountain West has 3 teams ranked ahead of Kansas State and 4 ahead of Oklahoma. I'm not saying Boise would beat TCU (but it's happened before when no one thought they had a chance (2010)), or Utah State could beat Oklahoma, but I do think it's interesting that not a single Big XII school put a MWC team on their calendar this year...

ConferenceMedian Score (Rank)Average Score (Rank)
Pac 120.652119 (1)0.588608 (2)
SEC0.630495 (2)0.627829 (1)
IND0.591702 (3)0.525419 (6)
ACC0.543368 (4)0.562945 (3)
Big Ten0.526238 (5)0.562817 (4)
Big XII0.501173 (6)0.534019 (5)
AAC0.485584 (7)0.423851 (9)
CUSA0.464364 (8)0.473289 (8)
MWC0.448798 (9)0.474476 (7)
MAC0.428382 (10)0.415714 (10)
Sun Belt0.415123 (11)0.393096 (11)


AACACCBig TenBig XIICUSAINDMACMWCPac 12SECSun Belt
AAC vs.--0.333 (3-6)0.000 (0-6)0.000 (0-3)0.250 (1-3)0.333 (2-4)1.000 (2-0)0.333 (1-2)0.000 (0-1)0.167 (1-5)0.000 (0-1)
ACC vs.0.667 (6-3)--0.167 (1-5)1.000 (3-0)1.000 (3-0)0.500 (3-3)0.800 (4-1)0.333 (1-2)0.250 (1-3)0.625 (5-3)0.833 (5-1)
Big Ten vs.1.000 (6-0)0.833 (5-1)--0.250 (1-3)0.800 (4-1)0.600 (3-2)0.727 (8-3)1.000 (3-0)0.250 (2-6)0.500 (3-3)1.000 (2-0)
Big XII vs.1.000 (3-0)0.000 (0-3)0.750 (3-1)--1.000 (5-0)0.000 (0-1)1.000 (3-0)--0.333 (1-2)0.286 (2-5)--
CUSA vs.0.750 (3-1)0.000 (0-3)0.200 (1-4)0.000 (0-5)--0.600 (3-2)1.000 (7-0)0.500 (3-3)0.000 (0-1)0.000 (0-8)1.000 (4-0)
IND vs.0.667 (4-2)0.500 (3-3)0.400 (2-3)1.000 (1-0)0.400 (2-3)--0.667 (2-1)0.375 (3-5)0.400 (2-3)1.000 (1-0)1.000 (3-0)
MAC vs.0.000 (0-2)0.200 (1-4)0.273 (3-8)0.000 (0-3)0.000 (0-7)0.333 (1-2)--0.500 (1-1)0.000 (0-1)0.000 (0-5)0.800 (4-1)
MWC vs.0.667 (2-1)0.667 (2-1)0.000 (0-3)--0.500 (3-3)0.625 (5-3)0.500 (1-1)--0.214 (3-11)0.000 (0-3)0.667 (4-2)
Pac 12 vs.1.000 (1-0)0.750 (3-1)0.750 (6-2)0.667 (2-1)1.000 (1-0)0.600 (3-2)1.000 (1-0)0.786 (11-3)----1.000 (1-0)
SEC vs.0.833 (5-1)0.375 (3-5)0.500 (3-3)0.714 (5-2)1.000 (8-0)0.000 (0-1)1.000 (5-0)1.000 (3-0)----1.000 (9-0)
Sun Belt vs.1.000 (1-0)0.167 (1-5)0.000 (0-2)--0.000 (0-4)0.000 (0-3)0.200 (1-4)0.333 (2-4)0.000 (0-1)0.000 (0-9)--

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Final 2014-2015 Rankings


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Ohio State (14-1)20.011611
20.972779TCU (12-1)3-0.00812
30.955924Oregon (13-2)1-0.044075
40.945673Marshall (13-1)4-0.00744
50.909476Michigan State (11-2)5-0.007159
60.893161Baylor (11-2)6-0.006962
70.888257Alabama (12-2)7-0.006117
80.86363Boise State (12-2)8-0.0078
90.856631Florida State (13-1)9-0.008802
100.829422Georgia (10-3)10-0.006404
110.802899Clemson (10-3)12-0.006166
120.802057Georgia Tech (11-3)11-0.007189
130.795967Wisconsin (11-3)13-0.004968
140.772768Memphis (10-3)14-0.007009
150.765999Mississippi State (10-3)16-0.005817
160.764929Missouri (11-3)15-0.007697
170.756901Northern Illinois (11-3)17-0.008257
180.754785Arizona State (10-3)18-0.007706
190.744804UCLA (10-3)19-0.006509
200.737181Georgia Southern (9-3)20-0.006392
210.73522Ole Miss (9-4)21-0.00503
220.725012Colorado State (10-3)22-0.006935
230.711912USC (9-4)23-0.006024
240.708116Arizona (10-4)24-0.007111
250.708084Air Force (10-3)25-0.007126
260.705584Kansas State (9-4)26-0.005744
270.69702Louisville (9-4)27-0.005476
280.693483Utah State (10-4)28-0.007078
290.690425UCF (10-4)29-0.006259
300.67893Nebraska (9-4)30-0.005134
310.674516Louisiana Tech (9-5)31-0.005757
320.665524Utah (9-4)32-0.00647
330.662424Duke (9-4)33-0.006382
340.659373Auburn (8-5)34-0.004168
350.656147Cincinnati (9-4)35-0.005535
360.651379Toledo (9-4)36-0.005586
370.645723LSU (8-5)37-0.00415
380.6389Louisiana-Lafayette (9-4)38-0.006419
390.638713Stanford (8-5)39-0.00393
400.624574Oklahoma (8-5)40-0.003651
410.621183Houston (8-5)41-0.005245
420.615266Arkansas (7-6)43-0.003045
430.614883BYU (8-5)42-0.004369
440.608357North Carolina State (8-5)44-0.005102
450.608307Western Michigan (8-5)45-0.004854
460.607634Minnesota (8-5)46-0.005134
470.60301Florida (7-5)47-0.004307
480.601401Western Kentucky (8-5)48-0.005163
490.600997Notre Dame (8-5)49-0.00431
500.591797East Carolina (8-6)51-0.003155
510.589391Rice (8-5)50-0.005744
520.586032Texas A&M (8-5)52-0.00412
530.582405Navy (8-5)53-0.004183
540.5712Washington (8-6)54-0.005767
550.567156Appalachian State (7-5)55-0.004182
560.560865Texas State (7-5)56-0.005208
570.555381Boston College (7-6)57-0.00353
580.545615Arkansas State (7-6)58-0.004207
590.545393Tennessee (7-6)59-0.003751
600.542731Rutgers (8-5)60-0.005043
610.542655San Diego State (7-6)61-0.004192
620.535782Penn State (7-6)62-0.002827
630.534057West Virginia (7-6)63-0.002169
640.531355Virginia Tech (7-6)64-0.003011
650.525303South Carolina (7-6)65-0.003669
660.522425Nevada (7-6)66-0.005238
670.519778Bowling Green (8-6)67-0.00609
680.519365UTEP (7-6)68-0.005148
690.516693Iowa (7-6)69-0.003482
700.512738Miami (FL) (6-7)70-0.001971
710.503173Central Michigan (7-6)71-0.003935
720.489369UAB (6-6)72-0.003367
730.485583Temple (6-6)73-0.00398
740.481805Maryland (7-6)74-0.004264
750.480767Pittsburgh (6-7)75-0.00212
760.468288Oklahoma State (7-6)76-0.004128
770.464364Middle Tennessee (6-6)77-0.003505
780.455106Old Dominion (6-6)78-0.004127
790.454216Virginia (5-7)79-0.002587
800.44747Texas (6-7)80-0.002836
810.440744Ohio (6-6)81-0.003987
820.435809Kentucky (5-7)82-0.003203
830.428382Buffalo (5-6)83-0.003406
840.424936North Carolina (6-7)84-0.003595
850.417421Northwestern (5-7)85-0.003079
860.415122South Alabama (6-7)86-0.003068
870.41436California (5-7)88-0.002856
880.414063Oregon State (5-7)87-0.003524
890.405163Ball State (5-7)89-0.004049
900.403947Illinois (6-7)90-0.003284
910.402795Michigan (5-7)91-8.16E-4
920.397098Akron (5-7)92-0.002932
930.37517Fresno State (6-8)93-0.002909
940.335234Florida International (4-8)94-0.002848
950.333041Indiana (4-8)95-0.001459
960.327988Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)96-0.002025
970.325538North Texas (4-8)97-0.002574
980.313241Wyoming (4-8)98-0.002461
990.31018New Mexico (4-8)99-0.002704
1000.307714Texas Tech (4-8)100-0.001169
1010.30339Army (4-8)101-0.002986
1020.299954UTSA (4-8)102-0.00228
1030.294849South Florida (4-8)103-0.002693
1040.281059Washington State (3-9)1045.02E-4
1050.278595Syracuse (3-9)105-8.04E-4
1060.273953Hawaii (4-9)106-0.001624
1070.257238Tulane (3-9)107-0.001536
1080.253717San Jose State (3-9)109-2.78E-4
1090.253206Purdue (3-9)108-8.35E-4
1100.247925Massachusetts (3-9)110-9.52E-4
1110.238283Florida Atlantic (3-9)111-0.001324
1120.230645Troy (3-9)112-0.002227
1130.228004Kansas (3-9)113-0.002044
1140.214558Southern Miss (3-9)114-0.001057
1150.213844Wake Forest (3-9)115-0.001757
1160.202831Colorado (2-10)1165.01E-4
1170.19757Miami (OH) (2-10)117-4.66E-4
1180.189866Vanderbilt (3-9)118-7.46E-4
1190.184587Kent State (2-9)119-4.35E-4
1200.162083Tulsa (2-10)120-7.2E-5
1210.158555Iowa State (2-10)121-9.4E-4
1220.140448New Mexico State (2-10)122-6.4E-5
1230.130286Connecticut (2-10)123-6.2E-5
1240.128389Idaho (1-10)1247.94E-4
1250.112152UNLV (2-11)125-1.15E-4
1260.063269Eastern Michigan (2-10)126-8.55E-4
1270.031743Georgia State (1-11)1270.00133
1280.000000SMU (1-11)1280.000000

Monday, January 12, 2015

Updated CFP Championship Prediction

Now that we know for sure who's playing in the inaugural CFP championship game tonight, and we have 37 more games worth of data from the previous bowl games and semi finals, I re-ran the numbers for Oregon/OSU matchup. Oregon may have leap-frogged the Buckeyes based on performance thus far, but the SOS-scaled prediction still says that OSU has the edge, although by about 2 fewer points than before.

CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T (FINAL) CFP Championship Bowl
Arlington, TX - January 12, 2015 - 8:30 PM
#1 Oregon loses to #2 Ohio State by 4.4954
TeamOregonOhio State
SOS0.7491840.839678
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG47.214286 (70.744375)45 (75.57102)
YPG552.857143 (828.383451)509.714286 (855.991744)
TCPG0.714286 (0.358309)1.642857 (0.526772)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.857143 (10.46261)19.642857 (6.298364)
YPG384.214286 (192.734181)304.571429 (97.659001)
TFPG1.714286 (2.568631)2 (3.358712)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.6%100.9%
Defense62.04%73.71%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.428571 (38.52137)32.928571 (43.016815)

Monday, January 05, 2015

Post-Bowl Top 25


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Oregon (13-1)20.001024
20.988388Ohio State (13-1)1-0.011611
30.980899TCU (12-1)3-0.002371
40.953114Marshall (13-1)6-0.004653
50.916635Michigan State (11-2)8-0.015477
60.900124Baylor (11-2)4-0.071137
70.894375Alabama (12-2)5-0.075264
80.871431Boise State (12-2)9-0.009654
90.865434Florida State (13-1)7-0.081622
100.835826Georgia (10-3)110.003792
110.809246Georgia Tech (11-3)16-0.001224
120.809066Clemson (10-3)170.017337
130.800935Wisconsin (11-3)14-0.012111
140.779778Memphis (10-3)18-0.006286
150.772627Missouri (11-3)230.006672
160.771816Mississippi State (10-3)10-0.071675
170.765158Northern Illinois (11-3)12-0.065842
180.762491Arizona State (10-3)250.005226
190.751313UCLA (10-3)270.005918
200.743573Georgia Southern (9-3)22-0.025825
210.740251Ole Miss (9-4)13-0.08155
220.731947Colorado State (10-3)15-0.079312
230.717937USC (9-4)313.99E-4
240.715228Arizona (10-4)21-0.057104
250.715211Air Force (10-3)330.00444

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.015 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.