Chaos Rankings

Saturday, December 12, 2015

2015 Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, NM - December 19, 2015 - 2:00 PM
#73 Arizona beats #65 New Mexico by 19.797
TeamArizonaNew Mexico
SOS0.5517980.269739
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.75 (40.557153)29.333333 (15.824688)
YPG494.166667 (545.360357)378.166667 (204.012597)
TCPG1.5 (1.344606)1.5 (2.190783)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.916667 (33.092248)32.833333 (47.953806)
YPG488.583333 (437.968054)460 (671.84012)
TFPG1.083333 (1.195562)1.5 (0.809217)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.99%88.65%
Defense86.35%81.57%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.791667 (44.255479)33.125 (24.458468)


Royal Purrple Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 19, 2015 - 3:30 PM
#27 BYU loses to #33 Utah by 8.4072
TeamBYUUtah
SOS0.4986910.698158
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.166667 (34.077218)30.25 (42.238559)
YPG428 (426.879496)376.833333 (526.178413)
TCPG1.25 (1.253273)1.75 (1.056447)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.5 (28.574613)33 (19.921572)
YPG401.583333 (402.634679)458.583333 (276.839421)
TFPG1.333333 (1.329843)1.583333 (2.210834)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.23%91.74%
Defense81.11%82.24%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.583333 (26.999395)29.375 (35.406586)


Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, AL - December 19, 2015 - 5:30 PM
#48 Ohio beats #13 Appalachian State by 1.3323
TeamOhioAppalachian State
SOS0.3686610.257387
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.416667 (20.214912)37.166667 (19.132434)
YPG425.166667 (313.484737)469.583333 (241.729291)
TCPG1.166667 (1.473124)1.583333 (2.351608)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.916667 (44.088507)30.75 (45.6707)
YPG479.333333 (605.243655)410.833333 (610.180348)
TFPG1.166667 (0.860209)1.666667 (0.857957)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense73.7%90.46%
Defense83.25%85.54%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.083333 (32.942806)36.041667 (31.61047)


Autonation Cure Not-Bowl-Eligible Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 19, 2015 - 7:00 PM
#84 San Jose State beats #41 Georgia Southern by 4.5053
TeamSan Jose StateGeorgia Southern
SOS0.360930.27898
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.1 (19.562406)34.666667 (19.342613)
YPG399.1 (288.094326)417.5 (232.9483)
TCPG1.4 (1.789396)1.75 (2.52357)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.2 (39.877968)33.75 (48.66885)
YPG432.7 (553.051178)463.5 (668.38554)
TFPG1.1 (0.794046)1.583333 (0.883437)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.6%94.9%
Defense82.41%83.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.425 (34.115628)32.933333 (29.610291)


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans, LA - December 19, 2015 - 9:00 PM
#30 Arkansas State beats #43 Louisiana Tech by 3.6546
TeamArkansas StateLouisiana Tech
SOS0.2655310.283779
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG41 (21.773542)36.75 (20.857757)
YPG448.083333 (237.960031)465.416667 (264.150953)
TCPG1.916667 (2.815465)1.666667 (2.387403)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.333333 (35.744158)29.416667 (42.137669)
YPG354.416667 (520.61611)433.583333 (621.082977)
TFPG1.416667 (0.752338)2.5 (1.418895)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense104.57%90.24%
Defense78.47%77.54%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score35.208333 (31.955605)30.541667 (28.300957)


Miami Beach Bowl
Miami, FL - December 21, 2015 - 2:30 PM
#8 Western Kentucky beats #36 South Florida by 6.0654
TeamWestern KentuckySouth Florida
SOS0.4466460.450336
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG44.230769 (39.510992)33.5 (30.172512)
YPG519.384615 (463.962122)428.75 (386.16312)
TCPG1.230769 (1.362102)1.25 (1.37416)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.538462 (28.26362)28.25 (31.056016)
YPG370.615385 (410.163011)419.25 (460.893264)
TFPG1.461538 (1.305581)1.583333 (1.426064)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.33%89.3%
Defense78.75%77.01%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.240385 (35.283504)29.519231 (29.218066)


Famous Idaho Potato Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, ID - December 22, 2015 - 3:30 PM
#61 Akron loses to #70 Utah State by 12.903
TeamAkronUtah State
SOS0.3641390.556064
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24 (17.478672)29.666667 (32.993131)
YPG363.75 (264.911123)371.166667 (412.784843)
TCPG1.416667 (1.801606)1.75 (1.553776)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.666667 (38.999475)32.333333 (28.707861)
YPG442.583333 (562.842962)450.75 (400.208304)
TFPG1.5 (1.092417)1.333333 (1.482837)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense75.41%91.35%
Defense79.19%81.98%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.166667 (23.093267)30.166667 (35.996303)


Marmot Boca Raton Old Retired People Bowl
Boca Raton, FL - December 22, 2015 - 7:00 PM
#26 Temple loses to #19 Toledo by 4.9649
TeamTempleToledo
SOS0.5057940.502283
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.769231 (31.125785)35.272727 (35.433783)
YPG368.846154 (373.120343)463.272727 (465.388031)
TCPG1.384615 (1.36857)1.272727 (1.266916)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.076923 (34.670452)29.181818 (29.048574)
YPG472.615385 (467.138718)446.818182 (444.77801)
TFPG0.692308 (0.70033)1.363636 (1.369863)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.34%87.02%
Defense84.82%74.64%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.975524 (30.087179)35.174825 (35.052117)


San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 23, 2015 - 4:30 PM
#38 Boise State loses to #53 Northern Illinois by 6.2104
TeamBoise StateNorthern Illinois
SOS0.2905620.440821
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.545455 (21.818565)33 (29.094186)
YPG488.090909 (283.641341)426.615385 (376.122041)
TCPG1.818182 (2.579775)1.846154 (2.064661)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.363636 (40.244483)31.384615 (35.099236)
YPG437.727273 (621.080722)423.538462 (473.667627)
TFPG1.636364 (0.95093)1.307692 (1.152916)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense87.91%88.4%
Defense74.05%84.69%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.465035 (28.4589)30.681818 (34.669334)


GoDaddy Danica Patrick Bowl
Mobile, AL - December 23, 2015 - 8:00 PM
#41 Georgia Southern loses to #11 Bowling Green by 26.6465
TeamGeorgia SouthernBowling Green
SOS0.278980.5721
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.666667 (19.342613)43.384615 (49.640677)
YPG417.5 (232.9483)561 (641.8962)
TCPG1.75 (2.52357)1 (0.8558)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.75 (48.66885)30 (25.674)
YPG463.5 (668.38554)447 (382.5426)
TFPG1.583333 (0.883437)1.538462 (1.760308)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense94.9%88.38%
Defense83.22%76.7%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.333333 (22.508307)38.567308 (49.154763)


Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, Bahamas - December 24, 2015 - 12:00 PM
#60 Middle Tennessee loses to #55 Western Michigan by 21.0633
TeamMiddle TennesseeWestern Michigan
SOS0.358810.672213
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.25 (24.578485)35.25 (47.391017)
YPG464 (332.97568)480.583333 (646.108729)
TCPG2.25 (2.885355)1.333333 (0.874099)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.166667 (42.53227)35.416667 (23.218246)
YPG445.416667 (571.193425)499.75 (327.623107)
TFPG1.916667 (1.375438)1.333333 (1.792568)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.36%83.83%
Defense85.1%80.99%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.833333 (23.898365)34.208333 (44.961643)


Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu, HI - December 24, 2015 - 8:00 PM
#84 San Jose State loses to #63 Cincinnati by 20.9104
TeamSan Jose StateCincinnati
SOS0.360930.581886
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.1 (19.562406)36.083333 (41.992773)
YPG399.1 (288.094326)559.416667 (651.033453)
TCPG1.4 (1.789396)2.5 (2.09057)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.2 (39.877968)24.5 (20.487586)
YPG432.7 (553.051178)363.416667 (303.899192)
TFPG1.1 (0.794046)1.166667 (1.357734)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.6%73.72%
Defense82.41%77.05%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.8 (20.024996)33.641667 (40.935371)


St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL - December 26, 2015 - 11:00 AM
#72 Connecticut beats #34 Marshall by 11.8516
TeamConnecticutMarshall
SOS0.4801710.187965
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.75 (17.046071)32.583333 (12.249053)
YPG318.416667 (305.788899)401.333333 (150.87324)
TCPG1.25 (1.299573)1.916667 (3.112801)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.666667 (36.041477)33.833333 (54.947702)
YPG447.083333 (464.813764)435.833333 (707.823842)
TFPG1.666667 (1.60057)1.25 (0.469913)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense63.71%92.79%
Defense88.62%88.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.791667 (35.996886)33.625 (24.145265)


Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX - December 26, 2015 - 2:00 PM
#44 Miami (FL) beats #52 Washington State by 11.6101
TeamMiami (FL)Washington State
SOS0.6804390.447608
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.916667 (39.352056)32.416667 (29.019919)
YPG401.416667 (546.279111)476.916667 (426.943431)
TCPG0.916667 (0.585862)2 (2.209568)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.166667 (23.754034)33.166667 (36.642003)
YPG486.416667 (310.879593)452.916667 (500.375087)
TFPG1.5 (2.041317)1.333333 (1.193621)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.33%77.68%
Defense87.32%83.69%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.041667 (37.997029)34.791667 (26.386977)


Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX - December 26, 2015 - 2:20 PM
#64 Washington beats #35 Southern Mississippi by 27.0031
TeamWashingtonSouthern Mississippi
SOS0.7241050.22853
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.5 (42.722195)40.615385 (18.563668)
YPG388.333333 (562.388217)519.846154 (237.600883)
TCPG1.75 (0.965633)2 (3.08588)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.666667 (18.57693)31.384615 (48.424578)
YPG481.75 (265.824833)461.538462 (712.126154)
TFPG1.833333 (2.655052)2 (0.91412)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.82%89.29%
Defense79.87%77.71%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.442308 (45.573387)37.141026 (18.570299)


New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, NY - December 26, 2015 - 3:30 PM
#68 Indiana beats #62 Duke by 23.1668
TeamIndianaDuke
SOS0.6864040.365472
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.166667 (49.649889)30.5 (22.293792)
YPG490.75 (673.705526)431.333333 (315.280512)
TCPG0.916667 (0.574926)1.5 (1.903584)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.083333 (17.613642)28.833333 (36.591115)
YPG417.916667 (262.11399)379.083333 (481.077979)
TFPG1.666667 (2.288013)1.083333 (0.791856)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.22%80.81%
Defense76.8%86.93%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.5 (43.120502)29.291667 (19.953717)


Camping World Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA - December 26, 2015 - 5:45 PM
#75 Tulsa beats #66 Virginia Tech by 4.24
TeamTulsaVirginia Tech
SOS0.5444730.559779
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.916667 (39.111311)29 (32.467182)
YPG502.75 (547.467602)367.416667 (411.344269)
TCPG1.666667 (1.518423)1.583333 (1.394033)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.5 (30.520309)36.75 (32.356244)
YPG435.416667 (396.688096)471.833333 (415.421884)
TFPG1.583333 (1.724165)1.5 (1.679337)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.65%90.21%
Defense87.93%89.01%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.333333 (35.733777)31.25 (31.493746)


Foster Farms Not-Bowl-Eligible Bowl II
Santa Clara, CA - December 26, 2015 - 2:30 PM
#40 UCLA loses to #79 Nebraska by 13.4518
TeamUCLANebraska
SOS0.7051520.903456
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.5 (45.83488)32.5 (58.72464)
YPG472.416667 (666.251115)442.5 (799.55856)
TCPG1.416667 (0.835403)2.166667 (0.418357)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.833333 (19.951381)30.75 (5.937456)
YPG429 (252.979584)445.916667 (86.101157)
TFPG1.25 (1.76288)1.25 (2.25864)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.62%83.94%
Defense90.13%78.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.625 (25.886168)33.166667 (39.338011)


Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grumman USNA Bowl
Annapolis, MD - December 18, 2015 - 1:00 PM
#45 Pittsburgh loses to #10 Navy by 0.2363
TeamPittsburghNavy
SOS0.6849570.593965
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.25 (38.700071)36.166667 (42.963468)
YPG381 (521.937234)411.416667 (488.734201)
TCPG1 (0.630086)0.583333 (0.473708)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.333333 (22.263039)32.083333 (26.053913)
YPG464.416667 (292.62244)426.583333 (346.415528)
TFPG1.083333 (1.484074)1.166667 (1.385918)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.74%100.47%
Defense86.95%85.95%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.166667 (32.376992)35.75 (32.613254)


Quick Lane Not-Bowl-Eligible Bowl III
Detroit, MI - December 28, 2015 - 5:00 PM
#56 Central Michigan loses to #82 Minnesota by 22.4138
TeamCentral MichiganMinnesota
SOS0.4837150.936018
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.833333 (25.959372)22.583333 (42.276813)
YPG413.833333 (400.354782)357.083333 (668.472855)
TCPG1.25 (1.290713)1.75 (0.223937)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32 (33.04224)35.416667 (4.532058)
YPG457.416667 (472.314728)455.416667 (58.276938)
TFPG1.666667 (1.612383)1.5 (2.808054)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.1%72.28%
Defense79.95%88.88%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.125 (15.245715)27.291667 (37.659527)


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX - December 19, 2015 - 2:00 PM
#54 California beats #50 Air Force by 22.6987
TeamCaliforniaAir Force
SOS0.7756030.418195
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.5 (56.619019)33.615385 (28.115572)
YPG524 (812.831944)452.692308 (378.627319)
TCPG1.833333 (0.822789)1.538462 (1.790169)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG42.333333 (18.998946)30.846154 (35.892893)
YPG526.333333 (236.215242)421.615385 (490.595878)
TFPG0.916667 (1.421939)1.307692 (1.093741)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense79.61%84.86%
Defense91.92%83.61%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.673077 (46.255956)37.974359 (23.557259)


Russell Athletic Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 29, 2015 - 5:30 PM
#9 North Carolina loses to #20 Baylor by 5.9406
TeamNorth CarolinaBaylor
SOS0.4067860.464315
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG40.923077 (33.29387)48 (44.57424)
YPG486.923077 (396.146982)604.583333 (561.434221)
TCPG1.307692 (1.551483)2.083333 (2.232021)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.769231 (31.759765)29.083333 (31.159011)
YPG387.076923 (459.2389)387.416667 (415.066594)
TFPG1.307692 (1.063902)1.25 (1.160788)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense96.05%90.74%
Defense79.04%85.79%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score35.003205 (32.22644)37.384615 (38.167002)


Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Tucson, AZ - December 29, 2015 - 7:30 PM
#74 Nevada loses to #67 Colorado State by 3.1291
TeamNevadaColorado State
SOS0.22460.290926
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.083333 (11.716633)30.166667 (17.552535)
YPG377.583333 (169.610433)417 (242.632284)
TCPG1 (1.5508)2.166667 (3.072654)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.583333 (50.530233)35.333333 (50.107896)
YPG451.583333 (700.315433)451.916667 (640.884717)
TFPG1.416667 (0.636367)1.5 (0.872778)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.95%82.68%
Defense82.46%89.35%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.708333 (30.912265)31.375 (34.041384)


Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Houston, TX - December 29, 2015 - 9:00 PM
#31 LSU beats #59 Texas Tech by 7.3663
TeamLSUTexas Tech
SOS0.9063710.609627
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.727273 (55.700618)46.583333 (56.796916)
YPG419.727273 (760.857256)594.5 (724.846503)
TCPG0.818182 (0.153211)1.833333 (1.431368)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27 (5.055966)26.75 (20.884956)
YPG423.636364 (79.329298)387.583333 (302.604137)
TFPG2 (3.625484)1.083333 (1.320859)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense83.67%89.55%
Defense72.84%78.88%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.738636 (38.292787)36.791667 (30.926441)


Birmingham Belay My Last, Welcome Back UAB! Bowl
Birmingham, AL - December 30, 2015 - 12:00 PM
#71 Auburn beats #23 Memphis by 0.0839
TeamAuburnMemphis
SOS0.7851890.620822
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.166667 (42.661936)42.666667 (52.976811)
YPG367.25 (576.721321)510.416667 (633.755792)
TCPG1.166667 (0.501226)1.083333 (0.821552)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG41.5 (17.829313)37.333333 (28.311957)
YPG499.833333 (214.739396)485.75 (368.371427)
TFPG1.583333 (2.486432)1.416667 (1.758996)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.54%95.53%
Defense94.89%87.84%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.25 (35.486947)42.083333 (35.403062)


Belk Queen City Bowl
Charlotte, NC - December 30, 2015 - 3:30 PM
#49 NC State loses to #42 Mississippi State by 12.3309
TeamNC StateMississippi State
SOS0.5226780.764847
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.666667 (35.193652)33 (50.479902)
YPG412.416667 (431.122237)451.416667 (690.529367)
TCPG0.916667 (0.87509)1.416667 (0.666267)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.75 (24.582083)32.333333 (15.206561)
YPG355.666667 (339.535049)461.583333 (217.085411)
TFPG1 (1.045356)1.5 (2.294541)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense93.29%83.55%
Defense82.74%80.06%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33 (25.200106)29.375 (37.530993)


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN - December 30, 2015 - 7:00 PM
#46 Texas A&M loses to #58 Louisville by 0.3106
TeamTexas A&MLouisville
SOS0.6528080.635625
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.333333 (36.992453)28.833333 (36.654375)
YPG423 (552.275568)406.25 (516.445313)
TCPG1.833333 (1.273037)2.25 (1.639688)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.166667 (22.336019)29.333333 (21.376667)
YPG437.416667 (303.735135)429.083333 (312.694479)
TFPG1.416667 (1.849623)1.666667 (2.11875)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense76.55%81.11%
Defense84.04%78.13%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.833333 (29.18456)30.5 (29.495197)


Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 30, 2015 - 10:30 PM
#39 USC beats #25 Wisconsin by 35.2161
TeamUSCWisconsin
SOS0.9736990.517889
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.923077 (68.00913)27.083333 (28.052321)
YPG449.615385 (875.580101)377.333333 (390.833565)
TCPG0.923077 (0.048556)1.5 (1.446333)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.769231 (1.986737)33.666667 (32.462141)
YPG470.846154 (24.767449)399.25 (384.965634)
TFPG0.923077 (1.797598)1.5 (1.553667)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense88.77%82.03%
Defense91.68%96.37%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.294872 (50.235635)32.426282 (15.019529)


Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA - December 31, 2015 - 12:00 PM
#4 Houston loses to #12 Florida State by 9.6782
TeamHoustonFlorida State
SOS0.3466430.55842
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG40.615385 (28.158078)32.333333 (36.11116)
YPG486.923077 (337.576952)424.916667 (474.56393)
TCPG1 (1.306714)0.833333 (0.735967)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.692308 (40.106068)32.5 (28.7027)
YPG432.769231 (565.505613)429.75 (379.53801)
TFPG1.615385 (1.119924)1.083333 (1.20991)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.33%86.96%
Defense81.05%86.43%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.557692 (28.430389)31.512821 (38.108614)


Capital One Orange Bowl (SEMI)
Miami, FL - December 31, 2015 - 4:00 PM
#3 Oklahoma beats #1 Clemson by 11.4562
TeamOklahomaClemson
SOS0.7392220.643832
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG45.75 (67.638813)38.461538 (49.525538)
YPG542.666667 (802.302277)510.692308 (657.6001)
TCPG1.333333 (0.695408)1.923077 (1.369877)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.5 (19.036794)33.461538 (23.835858)
YPG492.75 (256.996719)434.384615 (309.427799)
TFPG1.25 (1.848055)1.153846 (1.485766)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense96.35%86.07%
Defense84.66%88.04%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score39.605769 (45.737336)37.480769 (34.281166)


Goodyear Cotton Bowl (SEMI)
Arlington, TX - December 31, 2015 - 8:00 PM
#5 Michigan State loses to #2 Alabama by 0.9983
TeamMichigan StateAlabama
SOS0.8454680.826806
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.076923 (54.240024)34.076923 (56.350009)
YPG396.769231 (670.911376)422.538462 (698.71467)
TCPG0.923077 (0.28529)1.307692 (0.452969)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.307692 (9.985145)29.153846 (10.098542)
YPG470.615385 (145.450273)388.230769 (134.47848)
TFPG1.769231 (2.991656)0.769231 (1.272009)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense92.39%92.17%
Defense78.46%85.82%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.615385 (32.169283)33.192308 (33.167577)


Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 1, 2016 - 12:00 PM
#24 Northwestern loses to #37 Tennessee by 11.7534
TeamNorthwesternTennessee
SOS0.6539760.702532
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.666667 (27.031008)34.333333 (48.240531)
YPG332.583333 (435.003036)422.5 (593.63954)
TCPG1.333333 (0.922731)1 (0.594936)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.25 (19.550356)29 (17.253144)
YPG449.75 (311.248588)408.666667 (243.130512)
TFPG1.75 (2.288916)1.083333 (1.522153)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense71.02%92.87%
Defense71.79%81.1%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.833333 (22.142076)31.291667 (33.895443)


Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Orlando, FL - January 1, 2016 - 1:00 PM
#28 Michigan beats #21 Florida by 6.7677
TeamMichiganFlorida
SOS0.7947620.768185
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.583333 (48.612942)24.461538 (37.581974)
YPG387 (615.145788)338.769231 (520.474883)
TCPG1.333333 (0.547301)1.153846 (0.534958)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.083333 (13.579914)34.692308 (16.084395)
YPG442.416667 (181.601424)435.230769 (201.786042)
TFPG1.166667 (1.854445)0.846154 (1.300005)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.32%82.52%
Defense85.46%91.1%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.637821 (32.348668)28.772436 (25.580944)


Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ - January 1, 2016 - 1:00 PM
#18 Notre Dame beats #6 Ohio State by 8.7035
TeamNotre DameOhio State
SOS0.8095370.685041
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.75 (56.262822)35 (47.95287)
YPG471.916667 (764.068005)428.916667 (587.651005)
TCPG1.5 (0.571389)1.416667 (0.892384)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30 (11.42778)32.583333 (20.524828)
YPG389.083333 (148.211958)446.916667 (281.520853)
TFPG1.166667 (1.88892)1.25 (1.712603)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.16%93.26%
Defense88.12%83.32%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.666667 (38.393825)32.5 (29.690325)


Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwest Mutual
Pasadena, CA - January 1, 2016 - 5:00 PM
#14 Stanford beats #7 Iowa by 23.3319
TeamStanfordIowa
SOS0.7630950.471978
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.230769 (56.821228)32.076923 (30.279204)
YPG435.923077 (665.301441)393.769231 (371.700828)
TCPG0.923077 (0.437363)1.076923 (1.137278)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.769231 (15.052579)33.307692 (35.174389)
YPG459.384615 (217.661025)447.461538 (472.539073)
TFPG1.230769 (1.878388)1.307692 (1.234404)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.61%93.1%
Defense79.04%85.07%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score35.269231 (45.997808)31.923077 (22.665892)


Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA - January 1, 2016 - 8:30 PM
#16 Oklahoma State loses to #22 Ole Miss by 16.9814
TeamOklahoma StateOle Miss
SOS0.5367030.735341
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG41.166667 (44.188547)40.25 (59.194951)
YPG489.083333 (524.984985)514.75 (757.03356)
TCPG1.166667 (1.081026)1.833333 (0.970416)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.166667 (36.291598)32.75 (17.335165)
YPG501.5 (464.686891)415.083333 (219.71108)
TFPG1.083333 (1.162857)1.583333 (2.32858)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense96.2%89.36%
Defense89.26%90.17%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.958333 (30.761856)39.708333 (47.743274)


Taxslayer Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL - January 2, 2016 - 12:00 PM
#57 Penn State beats #29 Georgia by 19.5395
TeamPenn StateGeorgia
SOS0.8543720.486409
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.666667 (40.440275)26.5 (25.779677)
YPG344 (587.807936)381.666667 (371.292203)
TCPG1.416667 (0.412613)1.416667 (1.455175)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.25 (9.393006)32.916667 (33.811408)
YPG419.416667 (122.157621)429.916667 (441.602662)
TFPG1.75 (2.990302)1.333333 (1.297091)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.63%79.35%
Defense87.88%87.5%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.291667 (37.125841)29.375 (17.586342)


Autozone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN - January 2, 2016 - 3:20 PM
#78 Kansas State loses to #51 Arkansas by 16.3111
TeamKansas StateArkansas
SOS0.6230860.849006
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.5 (38.008246)35.166667 (59.713422)
YPG340.583333 (424.425414)456.833333 (775.708482)
TCPG1.5 (1.130742)0.833333 (0.251657)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.333333 (19.850804)29.583333 (8.933812)
YPG389.916667 (293.930101)411.5 (124.268062)
TFPG1.25 (1.557715)1.25 (2.122515)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense102.35%87.98%
Defense77.18%82.16%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.041667 (23.471029)30.75 (39.782113)


Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX - January 2, 2016 - 6:45 PM
#32 Oregon beats #15 TCU by 20.9571
TeamOregonTCU
SOS0.7061660.499279
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.166667 (60.965665)41.666667 (41.606583)
YPG548.333333 (774.428713)564.333333 (563.519565)
TCPG1.333333 (0.783557)1.5 (1.502163)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.333333 (19.588933)42.083333 (42.144018)
YPG436.583333 (256.566054)487.5 (488.202975)
TFPG1.333333 (1.883109)1.166667 (1.164984)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense89.97%84.38%
Defense87.26%98.66%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score42.625 (51.554841)37.5 (30.597758)


Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Tempe, AZ - January 2, 2016 - 10:15 PM
#47 West Virginia loses to #69 Arizona State by 9.5669
TeamWest VirginiaArizona State
SOS0.6020960.729395
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.25 (40.039384)34 (49.59886)
YPG463.416667 (558.042643)473.833333 (691.223328)
TCPG1.666667 (1.326347)1.583333 (0.856916)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.416667 (27.389059)32.916667 (17.814829)
YPG430.583333 (342.661661)439.416667 (237.816694)
TFPG1.333333 (1.605589)1.916667 (2.796014)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82%82.01%
Defense91.35%85.61%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.083333 (28.927107)34.208333 (38.493959)


CFP National Championship Game (FINAL) presented by AT&T
Glendale, AZ - January 11, 2016 - 8:30 PM
#2 Alabama* loses to #3 Oklahoma* by 1.1753
TeamAlabamaOklahoma
SOS0.8268060.739222
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.076923 (56.350009)45.75 (67.638813)
YPG422.538462 (698.71467)542.666667 (802.302277)
TCPG1.307692 (0.452969)1.333333 (0.695408)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.153846 (10.098542)36.5 (19.036794)
YPG388.230769 (134.47848)492.75 (256.996719)
TFPG0.769231 (1.272009)1.25 (1.848055)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense92.17%96.35%
Defense85.82%84.66%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score35.288462 (37.693401)37.451923 (38.868678)
*Prediction based on winners of semi-final games

Week 15 Rankings (Pre-Bowls)


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Clemson (13-0)10.000000
20.973482Alabama (12-1)2-8.0E-6
30.967743Oklahoma (11-1)39.0E-6
40.947852Houston (12-1)41.99E-4
50.929969Michigan State (12-1)5-3.7E-5
60.919755Ohio State (11-1)6-3.3E-5
70.909056Iowa (12-1)72.0E-6
80.895968Western Kentucky (11-2)8-9.0E-6
90.857597North Carolina (11-2)9-2.8E-5
100.848821Navy (10-2)160.020974
110.847392Bowling Green (10-3)108.0E-6
120.841531Florida State (10-2)11-6.0E-6
130.840285Appalachian State (10-2)127.0E-6
140.838767Stanford (11-2)13-1.0E-6
150.83748TCU (10-2)141.1E-5
160.829993Oklahoma State (10-2)15-5.0E-6
170.821745San Diego State (10-3)17-7.0E-6
180.815165Notre Dame (10-2)181.3E-4
190.806689Toledo (9-2)19-2.0E-5
200.804689Baylor (9-3)20-3.0E-6
210.790476Florida (10-3)21-4.0E-6
220.788966Ole Miss (9-3)220.0
230.78592Memphis (9-3)232.17E-4
240.784648Northwestern (10-2)24-4.3E-5
250.777341Wisconsin (9-3)25-2.1E-5
260.769679Temple (10-3)265.4E-5
270.764314BYU (9-3)276.0E-6
280.76146Michigan (9-3)28-4.7E-5
290.755326Georgia (9-3)29-7.0E-6
300.750758Arkansas State (9-3)301.0E-6
310.749445LSU (8-3)31-4.0E-5
320.747922Oregon (9-3)32-1.7E-5
330.745723Utah (9-3)33-1.6E-5
340.732832Marshall (9-3)343.0E-6
350.73139Southern Mississippi (9-4)35-1.1E-5
360.709005South Florida (8-4)361.89E-4
370.70677Tennessee (8-4)37-1.9E-5
380.703943Boise State (7-4)38-2.0E-6
390.699044USC (8-5)39-1.7E-5
400.693438UCLA (8-4)40-1.9E-5
410.689849Georgia Southern (8-4)41-2.0E-6
420.680406Mississippi State (8-4)42-2.3E-5
430.675023Louisiana Tech (8-4)43-1.8E-5
440.673325Miami (FL) (8-4)44-3.6E-5
450.671823Pittsburgh (8-4)45-2.1E-5
460.666737Texas A&M (8-4)46-1.9E-5
470.662489West Virginia (7-5)47-1.7E-5
480.661325Ohio (8-4)48-8.0E-6
490.660164NC State (7-5)49-2.9E-5
500.6599Air Force (8-5)505.1E-5
510.652285Arkansas (7-5)51-2.8E-5
520.64683Washington State (8-4)52-2.7E-5
530.636414Northern Illinois (8-5)53-2.6E-5
540.633266California (7-5)54-2.6E-5
550.626297Western Michigan (7-5)55-3.7E-5
560.621989Central Michigan (7-5)56-3.0E-5
570.619371Penn State (7-5)57-2.08E-4
580.615337Louisville (7-5)58-2.2E-5
590.612232Texas Tech (7-5)59-2.1E-5
600.609992Middle Tennessee (7-5)60-1.1E-5
610.607964Akron (7-5)61-2.6E-5
620.603294Duke (7-5)62-1.74E-4
630.599123Cincinnati (7-5)635.1E-5
640.59687Washington (6-6)64-2.6E-5
650.56507New Mexico (7-5)654.0E-6
660.557169Virginia Tech (6-6)66-2.3E-5
670.550823Colorado State (7-5)67-1.2E-5
680.546369Indiana (6-6)68-7.3E-5
690.543462Arizona State (6-6)69-3.0E-5
700.538851Utah State (6-6)70-2.3E-5
710.527038Auburn (6-6)71-3.3E-5
720.523335Connecticut (6-6)727.8E-5
730.520001Arizona (6-6)73-2.4E-5
740.517965Nevada (6-6)74-1.0E-5
750.510286Tulsa (6-6)752.13E-4
760.509692Georgia State (6-6)76-1.2E-5
770.49234Illinois (5-7)77-4.8E-5
780.484523Kansas State (6-6)78-2.9E-5
790.477445Nebraska (5-7)79-5.4E-5
800.473536Texas (5-7)80-3.9E-5
810.467626East Carolina (5-7)811.84E-4
820.465409Minnesota (5-7)82-4.2E-5
830.45342Missouri (5-7)83-3.4E-5
840.447482San Jose State (4-6)84-2.1E-5
850.447154Buffalo (5-7)85-3.7E-5
860.440459Kentucky (5-7)86-2.5E-5
870.422098Florida Intl (5-7)87-1.6E-5
880.396021Old Dominion (5-7)88-3.7E-5
890.394617South Alabama (5-7)89-2.8E-5
900.390118Troy (4-8)90-2.4E-5
910.383065Syracuse (4-8)91-4.0E-5
920.379676Boston College (3-9)92-5.0E-5
930.374745Colorado (4-9)93-3.2E-5
940.372714Vanderbilt (4-8)94-3.0E-5
950.371636Rice (5-7)95-1.46E-4
960.367858Virginia (4-8)96-4.1E-5
970.366273Georgia Tech (3-9)97-4.5E-5
980.356385Rutgers (4-8)98-2.16E-4
990.351016UTEP (5-7)99-3.5E-5
1000.341491Louisiana Lafayette (4-8)100-2.3E-5
1010.337611South Carolina (3-9)101-4.1E-5
1020.335842Idaho (4-8)102-2.9E-5
1030.327456UNLV (3-9)103-3.0E-5
1040.321852Florida Atlantic (3-9)104-3.6E-5
1050.306178Massachusetts (3-9)105-3.4E-5
1060.300947Iowa State (3-9)106-4.9E-5
1070.293453Wake Forest (3-9)107-1.83E-4
1080.29081Maryland (3-9)108-7.2E-5
1090.285523Texas San Antonio (3-9)109-4.6E-5
1100.278963New Mexico State (3-9)110-3.4E-5
1110.277151Ball State (3-9)111-5.6E-5
1120.274052Kent State (3-9)112-3.8E-5
1130.26924Tulane (3-9)1135.0E-5
1140.260943Texas State (3-9)114-2.0E-5
1150.259932Fresno State (3-9)115-4.0E-5
1160.248414Miami (OH) (3-9)116-5.1E-5
1170.241759Purdue (2-10)117-5.4E-5
1180.216077Army (2-10)118-0.019845
1190.199401Wyoming (2-10)119-5.7E-5
1200.19704Oregon State (2-10)120-5.1E-5
1210.19587Hawaii (3-9)121-4.1E-5
1220.194458SMU (2-10)1222.05E-4
1230.174145Charlotte (2-10)123-5.1E-5
1240.144447Louisiana Monroe (2-11)124-2.8E-5
1250.111334Eastern Michigan (1-11)125-1.91E-4
1260.088495North Texas (1-11)126-5.1E-5
1270.021449Kansas (0-12)127-6.4E-5
1280.000000UCF (0-12)1280.000000

Sunday, December 06, 2015

Week 14 Top 25


Rank

Score

Team

Previous Rank

Score Change
11.000000Clemson (13-0)10.000000
20.97349Alabama (12-1)40.004827
30.967734Oklahoma (11-1)2-0.022942
40.947653Houston (12-1)50.00353
50.930007Michigan State (12-1)70.005159
60.919789Ohio State (11-1)6-0.022668
70.909054Iowa (12-1)3-0.066794
80.895977Western Kentucky (11-2)90.014824
90.857626North Carolina (11-2)8-0.065008
100.847383Bowling Green (10-3)190.019162
110.841537Florida State (10-2)11-0.020694
120.840278Appalachian State (10-2)16-6.02E-4
130.838768Stanford (11-2)180.008252
140.837469TCU (10-2)12-0.021289
150.829998Oklahoma State (10-2)14-0.019511
160.827847Navy (9-2)15-0.018475
170.821752San Diego State (10-3)220.004539
180.815034Notre Dame (10-2)17-0.020242
190.80671Toledo (9-2)21-0.018593
200.804693Baylor (9-3)10-0.0652
210.79048Florida (10-3)13-0.062882
220.788967Ole Miss (9-3)23-0.01964
230.785703Memphis (9-3)25-0.017968
240.784692Northwestern (10-2)24-0.019607
250.777362Wisconsin (9-3)27-0.018277

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.015 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.