Chaos Rankings

Friday, December 17, 2010

Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

This year, I decided to just call it what it is. As usual, I'm calling bowls by whatever names I choose. I'm also trying something new with the predictions this year. What you see below is a table of data for each game showing what each team averages. Then I've scaled those values by each team's strength of schedule, so the values in parenthesis reflect how that team would be expected to perform against a team with a 0.500 SOS rating). It should be noted that this method has no basis in reality, and I haven't verified with past games that this is any more predictive than just using raw values, but it seems to make some intuitive sense. To obtain the predictions, I took the average of the points scored by a team and points allowed by their opponent. I've talked about the efficiency factor before. It's not used in any of my calculations, but it's a pretty telling statistic. Basically, how well to do you score and how well do you prevent your opponent from scoring. Since the name of the game is to outscore your opponent, in the end, the efficiency sort of rolls everything together. You rack up 700 yards per game, but turn the ball over a lot or always settle for a field goals? Chances are good you're going to lose to a team who only puts up 200 yards a game but never turns the ball over and almost always finds the end zone. It also indirectly takes non-offensive scoring and kick/punt returns into account because good field position will result in fewer offensive yards gained, but points are always points. I think most of the abbreviations used below are pretty self-explanatory, but just in case, TCPG and TFPG is turnovers committed per game and turnovers forced per game. Now, on with the catastrophe!

New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, N.M. - December 18, 2010 - 2:00 PM
#68 BYU beats #74 UTEP by 26.9276
TeamBYUUTEP
SOS0.64010.1191
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24 (30.7248)26.166667 (6.2329)
YPG354.166667 (453.404167)371 (88.3722)
TCPG1.583333 (1.139683)1.5 (2.6427)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.416667 (15.415717)25.416667 (44.779083)
YPG339 (244.0122)404.166667 (712.060833)
TFPG1.583333 (2.026983)1.166667 (0.2779)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.45%80.61%
Defense72.2%71.87%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.708333 (37.751942)23.791667 (10.824308)



uDrove Humanitarian Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, Idaho - December 18, 2010 - 5:30 PM
#18 Northern Illinois loses to #48 Fresno State by 6.5639
TeamNorthern IllinoisFresno State
SOS0.15480.4304
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.846154 (11.717169)30 (25.824)
YPG438.923077 (135.890585)369.916667 (318.424267)
TCPG1.076923 (1.820431)1.916667 (2.183467)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.076923 (32.247631)29.166667 (33.226667)
YPG332.615385 (562.253046)355.916667 (405.460267)
TFPG1.846154 (0.571569)1.083333 (0.932533)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense98.54%92.68%
Defense65.55%93.65%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.50641 (22.471918)24.538462 (29.035815)



R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans - December 18, 2010 - 9:00 PM
#44 Ohio beats #57 Troy by 0.867
TeamOhioTroy
SOS0.1920.2806
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28 (10.752)32.916667 (18.472833)
YPG327.25 (125.664)441.083333 (247.535967)
TCPG2.5 (4.04)2.5 (3.597)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.75 (35.148)31 (44.6028)
YPG332.666667 (537.589333)418.333333 (601.898)
TFPG2.083333 (0.8)2.25 (1.2627)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.78%85.29%
Defense74.72%84.69%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.5 (27.6774)27.333333 (26.810417)



Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, Fla. - December 21, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#27 Southern Miss loses to #59 Louisville by 7.5362
TeamSouthern MissLouisville
SOS0.30090.3794
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.583333 (22.61765)26 (19.7288)
YPG458.166667 (275.7247)375.833333 (285.182333)
TCPG1.333333 (1.864267)1.25 (1.5515)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.416667 (41.130383)18.666667 (23.169067)
YPG362.166667 (506.381433)304.666667 (378.152267)
TFPG2.083333 (1.25375)1.5 (1.1382)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense93.75%79.06%
Defense92.83%70.02%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.125 (22.893358)27.708333 (30.429592)



MAACO Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas - December 22, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#19 Utah loses to #3 Boise State by 14.786
TeamUtahBoise State
SOS0.44970.5553
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.583333 (32.00365)46.666667 (51.828)
YPG404.75 (364.03215)519.5 (576.9567)
TCPG1.916667 (2.109483)1.25 (1.11175)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.833333 (21.828567)13.583333 (12.081017)
YPG317.583333 (349.532217)259.25 (230.57695)
TFPG1.75 (1.57395)2 (2.2212)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense100.47%102.66%
Defense71.37%59.88%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.583333 (22.042333)33.25 (36.828283)



S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego - December 23, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#28 Navy loses to #34 San Diego State by 0.3119
TeamNavySan Diego State
SOS0.34710.3216
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.909091 (18.680291)35 (22.512)
YPG389.454545 (270.359345)448.833333 (288.6896)
TCPG1.272727 (1.661927)1.75 (2.3744)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.181818 (27.659218)22.75 (30.8672)
YPG359.545455 (469.494455)352.25 (477.9328)
TFPG1.636364 (1.135964)1.333333 (0.8576)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.96%89.12%
Defense67.33%73.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.829545 (24.773745)28.090909 (25.085609)



Sheraton Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu - December 24, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#15 Hawaii beats #23 Tulsa by 9.1502
TeamHawaiiTulsa
SOS0.38270.3167
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.923077 (30.557123)39.666667 (25.124867)
YPG496.846154 (380.286046)504.916667 (319.814217)
TCPG1.538462 (1.899385)1.416667 (1.936017)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.692308 (28.015923)29.916667 (40.884117)
YPG344.230769 (424.987308)443.583333 (606.200983)
TFPG2.769231 (2.119569)2.5 (1.5835)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.83%89.78%
Defense75.34%77.08%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.919872 (35.72062)31.179487 (26.570395)



Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Detroit - December 26, 2010 - 8:30 PM
#69 Florida International loses to #37 Toledo by 2.9138
TeamFlorida InternationalToledo
SOS0.34760.4183
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.333333 (19.697333)27.583333 (23.076217)
YPG402.333333 (279.702133)359.416667 (300.687983)
TCPG1.666667 (2.174667)1.666667 (1.939)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.916667 (35.120867)28.083333 (32.67215)
YPG363.333333 (474.077333)369.5 (429.8763)
TFPG1.75 (1.2166)2.75 (2.30065)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.48%87.71%
Defense84.67%86.86%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.208333 (26.184742)27.25 (29.098542)



AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Shreveport, La. - December 27, 2010 - 5:00 PM
#31 Air Force beats #70 Georgia Tech by 9.5546
TeamAir ForceGeorgia Tech
SOS0.50830.4105
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.25 (32.78535)27.583333 (22.645917)
YPG437.416667 (444.677783)414.916667 (340.646583)
TCPG1.416667 (1.39315)1.916667 (2.25975)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.25 (21.88065)26.166667 (30.8505)
YPG351.75 (345.91095)378.75 (446.54625)
TFPG1.5 (1.5249)1.75 (1.43675)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.26%75.98%
Defense72.29%78.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.208333 (31.817925)24.916667 (22.263283)



Insight Bowl
Tempe, Ariz. - December 28, 2010 - 10:00 PM
#14 Missouri beats #33 Iowa by 2.2965
TeamMissouriIowa
SOS0.70170.6787
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.333333 (42.5698)29.083333 (39.477717)
YPG401.083333 (562.88035)379.416667 (515.020183)
TCPG1.333333 (0.795467)0.75 (0.48195)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG15.166667 (9.048433)16.416667 (10.54935)
YPG350.5 (209.1083)317.083333 (203.75775)
TFPG2.25 (3.15765)1.833333 (2.488567)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.43%87.6%
Defense49.45%59.17%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score23.375 (26.559575)22.125 (24.263075)



Champs Sports Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, Fla. - December 28, 2010 - 6:30 PM
#22 West Virginia loses to #29 North Carolina State by 6.0687
TeamWest VirginiaNorth Carolina State
SOS0.49040.6381
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.666667 (26.154667)32.583333 (41.58285)
YPG376.583333 (369.352933)397.833333 (507.7149)
TCPG2 (2.0384)1.75 (1.26665)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG12.75 (12.9948)22.5 (16.2855)
YPG251.333333 (256.158933)340.5 (246.4539)
TFPG1.75 (1.7164)2 (2.5524)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.93%93.6%
Defense57.98%75.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.583333 (21.220083)22.666667 (27.288825)



Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman Beltway Bowl
Washington, D.C. - December 29, 2010 - 2:30 PM
#73 East Carolina beats #30 Maryland by 7.4674
TeamEast CarolinaMaryland
SOS0.69940.5379
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG38.166667 (53.387533)30.666667 (32.9912)
YPG446.5 (624.5642)342.416667 (368.37185)
TCPG2.083333 (1.2525)1 (0.9242)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.416667 (26.1021)22.333333 (20.640467)
YPG480.25 (288.7263)353.083333 (326.319617)
TFPG1.583333 (2.214767)2.083333 (2.24125)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.69%102.35%
Defense103.32%72.29%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.25 (37.014)37.041667 (29.54665)



Texas Bowl
Houston - December 29, 2010 - 6:00 PM
#53 Illinois beats #47 Baylor by 7.8137
TeamIllinoisBaylor
SOS0.74660.6381
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.083333 (47.906833)32.583333 (41.58285)
YPG385.75 (576.0019)478.5 (610.6617)
TCPG1.583333 (0.802433)1.5 (1.0857)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.25 (12.2899)29.833333 (21.593367)
YPG335.833333 (170.200333)427.25 (309.24355)
TFPG2.083333 (3.110833)1.666667 (2.127)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.05%77.82%
Defense82.52%79.8%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.958333 (34.7501)28.416667 (26.936375)



Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio - December 29, 2010 - 9:15 PM
#12 Oklahoma State beats #39 Arizona by 12.1601
TeamOklahoma StateArizona
SOS0.71830.6598
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG44.916667 (64.527283)29.75 (39.2581)
YPG537.583333 (772.292217)446.333333 (588.981467)
TCPG1.833333 (1.0329)1.5 (1.0206)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.75 (15.63435)21.583333 (14.6853)
YPG412.833333 (232.5903)342.75 (233.2071)
TFPG2.5 (3.5915)1.5 (1.9794)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.49%76.18%
Defense76.82%71.97%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.25 (39.606292)28.75 (27.446225)



Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
San Diego - December 30, 2010 - 10:00 PM
#20 Nebraska beats #72 Washington by 0.5978
TeamNebraskaWashington
SOS0.61590.8279
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.692308 (40.270385)22.083333 (36.565583)
YPG414.230769 (510.249462)364.5 (603.5391)
TCPG1.692308 (1.300031)1.416667 (0.487617)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.230769 (13.236677)31.166667 (10.727567)
YPG304.230769 (233.710077)401.166667 (138.081567)
TFPG1.769231 (2.179338)1.416667 (2.345717)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.2%69.24%
Defense64.73%88.79%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.929487 (25.498976)19.657051 (24.90113)



New Era Pinstripe Yankees Bowl
Bronx, N.Y. - December 30, 2010 - 3:20 PM
#52 Kansas State beats #58 Syracuse by 12.851
TeamKansas StateSyracuse
SOS0.56150.2966
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.583333 (37.714083)21 (12.4572)
YPG377.666667 (424.119667)308.25 (182.8539)
TCPG1.5 (1.3155)1.75 (2.4619)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.5 (24.9945)18.083333 (25.439633)
YPG441.333333 (387.049333)293.75 (413.2475)
TFPG1.833333 (2.058833)1.416667 (0.840367)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense101.63%77.86%
Defense73.8%70.35%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.833333 (31.576858)24.75 (18.72585)



Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tenn. - December 30, 2010 - 6:40 PM
#46 North Carolina loses to #67 Tennessee by 0.1005
TeamNorth CarolinaTennessee
SOS0.55950.589
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.166667 (31.5185)27 (31.806)
YPG400.333333 (447.973)365.833333 (430.951667)
TCPG1.833333 (1.615167)1.75 (1.4385)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.916667 (20.189583)24.666667 (20.276)
YPG355 (312.755)381.916667 (313.9355)
TFPG2 (2.238)2.166667 (2.552333)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.41%84.35%
Defense73.78%73.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.416667 (25.89725)24.958333 (25.997792)



Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Dallas - December 30, 2010 - 12:00 PM
#60 Army loses to #64 SMU by 11.9539
TeamArmySMU
SOS0.35380.6001
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.5 (19.459)26.615385 (31.943785)
YPG338.083333 (239.227767)416 (499.2832)
TCPG1.166667 (1.5078)1.769231 (1.415031)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.166667 (32.5254)26.384615 (21.102415)
YPG332 (429.0768)363.769231 (290.942631)
TFPG2.25 (1.5921)1.076923 (1.292523)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense92.96%73.12%
Defense86.63%82.89%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.942308 (20.280708)25.891026 (32.234592)



Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas - December 31, 2010 - 2:00 PM
#45 Notre Dame beats #41 Miami by 11.5977
TeamNotre DameMiami
SOS0.98140.705
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.75 (50.5421)27.083333 (38.1875)
YPG378.25 (742.4291)422.583333 (595.8425)
TCPG2 (0.0744)2.666667 (1.573333)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.5 (0.7626)19.666667 (11.603333)
YPG353.166667 (13.1378)317.333333 (187.226667)
TFPG1.75 (3.4349)2.25 (3.1725)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.8%73.25%
Defense66.34%70.83%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score22.708333 (31.072717)23.791667 (19.47505)



AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tenn. - December 31, 2010 - 3:30 PM
#49 Georgia beats #21 UCF by 19.4728
TeamGeorgiaUCF
SOS0.63770.2319
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.25 (43.68245)33.769231 (15.662169)
YPG393.75 (502.18875)384.230769 (178.206231)
TCPG1.166667 (0.845367)1.230769 (1.890708)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.083333 (16.726183)18 (27.6516)
YPG335.916667 (243.405217)318.076923 (488.629769)
TFPG2 (2.5508)1.615385 (0.749215)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense99.41%100.44%
Defense78.53%64.67%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.125 (35.667025)28.426282 (16.194176)



Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta - December 31, 2010 - 7:30 PM
#25 South Carolina beats #26 Florida State by 7.375
TeamSouth CarolinaFlorida State
SOS0.85990.7283
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32 (55.0336)31.769231 (46.275062)
YPG391.153846 (672.706385)386.923077 (563.592154)
TCPG1.615385 (0.452631)1.692308 (0.9196)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.923077 (6.423046)22.846154 (12.4146)
YPG357.923077 (100.290046)358.538462 (194.8298)
TFPG1.923077 (3.307308)1.769231 (2.577062)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense93.5%93.84%
Defense73.19%72.82%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.423077 (33.7241)27.346154 (26.349054)



Meineke Car Care Car-related Charlotte Bowl
Charlotte, N.C. - December 31, 2010 - 12:00 PM
#56 South Florida loses to #62 Clemson by 11.8932
TeamSouth FloridaClemson
SOS0.44840.7076
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.5 (21.0748)23.833333 (33.728933)
YPG312.083333 (279.876333)338.333333 (478.809333)
TCPG1.666667 (1.838667)1.75 (1.0234)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.5 (21.5124)17.75 (10.3802)
YPG319.75 (352.7482)323.666667 (189.280267)
TFPG1.416667 (1.270467)1.5 (2.1228)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.06%80.51%
Defense69.7%62.67%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score20.625 (15.7275)21.666667 (27.620667)



Outback Bowl
Tampa, Fla. - January 1, 2011 - 1:00 PM
#42 Florida beats #50 Penn State by 3.8333
TeamFloridaPenn State
SOS0.74280.7432
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.25 (43.4538)24.583333 (36.540667)
YPG356.833333 (530.1116)374.083333 (556.037467)
TCPG2.083333 (1.071667)1.333333 (0.6848)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.083333 (10.845267)22.583333 (11.5988)
YPG302.916667 (155.820333)352.5 (181.044)
TFPG2 (2.9712)1.25 (1.858)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense93.68%75.1%
Defense79.54%73.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.916667 (27.5263)22.833333 (23.692967)



Capital One Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Fla. - January 1, 2011 - 1:00 PM
#16 Alabama beats #11 Michigan State by 12.1529
TeamAlabamaMichigan State
SOS0.72230.564
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.583333 (49.959083)31.333333 (35.344)
YPG435.583333 (629.243683)406.833333 (458.908)
TCPG1.166667 (0.647967)1.5 (1.308)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG14.083333 (7.821883)20.083333 (17.512667)
YPG296 (164.3984)337.75 (294.518)
TFPG2.083333 (3.009583)2 (2.256)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.74%88.02%
Defense54.38%67.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.333333 (33.735875)22.708333 (21.582942)



Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Fla. - January 1, 2011 - 1:30 PM
#32 Mississippi State loses to #54 Michigan by 6.4788
TeamMississippi StateMichigan
SOS0.67670.7638
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.083333 (36.654583)34.333333 (52.4476)
YPG394.333333 (533.690733)500.916667 (765.2003)
TCPG1.666667 (1.077667)2.25 (1.0629)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.333333 (13.147533)33.833333 (15.982867)
YPG358.083333 (231.536683)447.916667 (211.595833)
TFPG2.166667 (2.932367)1.5 (2.2914)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.49%78.33%
Defense64.9%86.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.458333 (26.318725)27.333333 (32.797567)



Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO
Pasadena, Calif. - January 1, 2011 - 5:00 PM
#7 Wisconsin beats #1 TCU by 2.7116
TeamWisconsinTCU
SOS0.46190.3231
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.333333 (40.031333)43.333333 (28.002)
YPG450.166667 (415.863967)488.75 (315.83025)
TCPG0.75 (0.80715)1.083333 (1.466617)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.5 (22.0621)11.416667 (15.455883)
YPG323.5 (348.1507)215.416667 (291.631083)
TFPG1.916667 (1.770617)1.833333 (1.1847)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense110.01%101.33%
Defense72.42%60.57%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.375 (27.743608)31.916667 (25.03205)



Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Ariz. - January 1, 2011 - 10:30 PM
#35 Connecticut loses to #9 Oklahoma by 31.6879
TeamConnecticutOklahoma
SOS0.38140.8851
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.916667 (20.532033)36.384615 (64.408046)
YPG325 (247.91)478.461538 (846.972615)
TCPG1.416667 (1.7527)1.230769 (0.282831)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.833333 (24.5378)21.923077 (5.037923)
YPG353.666667 (437.5564)362.923077 (83.399723)
TFPG2.416667 (1.843433)2.307692 (4.085077)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense94.65%86.91%
Defense64.09%69.04%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.419872 (12.784978)28.108974 (44.472923)



TicketCity Bowl
Dallas - January 1, 2011 - 12:00 PM
#61 Northwestern loses to #55 Texas Tech by 14.3305
TeamNorthwesternTexas Tech
SOS0.45420.6586
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.416667 (23.0885)32.083333 (42.260167)
YPG392.416667 (356.4713)454.083333 (598.118567)
TCPG1.833333 (2.001267)2 (1.3656)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.666667 (30.200933)30.333333 (20.7116)
YPG415.833333 (453.923667)464.583333 (317.2175)
TFPG1.666667 (1.514)1.833333 (2.414867)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.02%80.75%
Defense76.04%74.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.875 (21.90005)29.875 (36.23055)



Discover Orange Bowl
Miami - January 3, 2011 - 8:30 PM
#6 Stanford beats #10 Virginia Tech by 1.8008
TeamStanfordVirginia Tech
SOS0.5060.5287
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG40.333333 (40.817333)35.538462 (37.578369)
YPG466.833333 (472.435333)411.076923 (434.672738)
TCPG1.25 (1.235)0.923077 (0.870092)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.833333 (17.619333)19.076923 (17.981908)
YPG327.75 (323.817)348.230769 (328.242323)
TFPG2.416667 (2.445667)2.307692 (2.440154)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense98.74%98.8%
Defense62.18%62.61%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.705128 (29.399621)26.685897 (27.598851)



Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans - January 4, 2011 - 8:30 PM
#5 Ohio State loses to #13 Arkansas by 3.3016
TeamOhio StateArkansas
SOS0.62250.7582
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.416667 (49.07375)37.333333 (56.612267)
YPG448.833333 (558.7975)488.416667 (740.635033)
TCPG1.25 (0.94375)1.833333 (0.8866)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG13.333333 (10.066667)22.75 (11.0019)
YPG250.25 (188.93875)339.75 (164.3031)
TFPG2.416667 (3.00875)2.083333 (3.159167)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense100.37%87.36%
Defense60.89%76.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.083333 (30.037825)25.333333 (33.339467)



GoDaddy.com Bowl
Mobile, Ala. - January 6, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#81 Middle Tennessee State loses to #36 Miami (Ohio) by 18.2894
TeamMiddle Tennessee StateMiami (Ohio)
SOS00.3227
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.916667 (0)20.538462 (13.255523)
YPG372.083333 (0)346.923077 (223.904154)
TCPG2.75 (5.5)1.692308 (2.2924)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.5 (55)23.384615 (31.6768)
YPG384.416667 (768.833333)335.769231 (454.833)
TFPG1.416667 (0)2.307692 (1.489385)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.67%67.66%
Defense81.76%79.59%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.150641 (15.8384)24.019231 (34.127762)



AT&T Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas - January 7, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#17 LSU loses to #24 Texas A&M by 4.5658
TeamLSUTexas A&M
SOS0.75620.8111
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.75 (43.4815)31.833333 (51.640033)
YPG333.75 (504.7635)447.583333 (726.069683)
TCPG1.75 (0.8533)2.25 (0.85005)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.75 (8.6549)20.333333 (7.681933)
YPG301.666667 (147.092667)357.5 (135.0635)
TFPG2.333333 (3.528933)2 (3.2444)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense98.45%81.28%
Defense67.25%65%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.541667 (25.581717)24.791667 (30.147467)



BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, Ala. - January 8, 2011 - 12:00 PM
#43 Pittsburgh beats #65 Kentucky by 9.3729
TeamPittsburghKentucky
SOS0.6260.4581
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.25 (32.865)33 (30.2346)
YPG366.5 (458.858)437.25 (400.60845)
TCPG1.666667 (1.246667)1.583333 (1.716017)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.75 (14.773)28.5 (30.8883)
YPG304.25 (227.579)353.916667 (383.574883)
TFPG1.75 (2.191)1.25 (1.14525)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.86%86.25%
Defense74.19%92.03%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.375 (31.87665)26.375 (22.5038)



Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco - January 9, 2011 - 9:00 PM
#8 Nevada loses to #51 Boston College by 4.5363
TeamNevadaBoston College
SOS0.29460.5471
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG42.615385 (25.108985)18.916667 (20.698617)
YPG535.538462 (315.539262)308.5 (337.5607)
TCPG1.230769 (1.736369)1.916667 (1.736117)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.076923 (31.146123)19.5 (17.6631)
YPG377.307692 (532.305692)309.833333 (280.647033)
TFPG1.692308 (0.997108)2.5 (2.7355)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.94%70.08%
Defense66.87%71.93%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.057692 (21.386042)20.496795 (25.92237)



Tostitos BCS National Championship Game Controversial Crystal Football Bowl
Glendale, Ariz. - January 10, 2011 - 8:30 PM
#2 Oregon loses to #4 Auburn by 18.3805
TeamOregonAuburn
SOS0.4030.7703
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG49.333333 (39.762667)42.692308 (65.771769)
YPG539.166667 (434.568333)497.692308 (766.744769)
TCPG1.833333 (2.189)1.153846 (0.530077)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG18.416667 (21.9895)24.461538 (11.237631)
YPG331.583333 (395.9105)361.923077 (166.267462)
TFPG2.916667 (2.350833)1.538462 (2.370154)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense104.57%98.03%
Defense63.48%77.24%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.897436 (25.500149)30.554487 (43.880635)


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