Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

This year, I decided to just call it what it is. As usual, I'm calling bowls by whatever names I choose. I'm also trying something new with the predictions this year. What you see below is a table of data for each game showing what each team averages. Then I've scaled those values by each team's strength of schedule, so the values in parenthesis reflect how that team would be expected to perform against a team with a 0.500 SOS rating). It should be noted that this method has no basis in reality, and I haven't verified with past games that this is any more predictive than just using raw values, but it seems to make some intuitive sense. To obtain the predictions, I took the average of the points scored by a team and points allowed by their opponent. I've talked about the efficiency factor before. It's not used in any of my calculations, but it's a pretty telling statistic. Basically, how well to do you score and how well do you prevent your opponent from scoring. Since the name of the game is to outscore your opponent, in the end, the efficiency sort of rolls everything together. You rack up 700 yards per game, but turn the ball over a lot or always settle for a field goals? Chances are good you're going to lose to a team who only puts up 200 yards a game but never turns the ball over and almost always finds the end zone. It also indirectly takes non-offensive scoring and kick/punt returns into account because good field position will result in fewer offensive yards gained, but points are always points. I think most of the abbreviations used below are pretty self-explanatory, but just in case, TCPG and TFPG is turnovers committed per game and turnovers forced per game. Now, on with the catastrophe!

New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, N.M. - December 18, 2010 - 2:00 PM
#68 BYU beats #74 UTEP by 26.9276

Team	BYU	UTEP
SOS	0.6401	0.1191
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24 (30.7248)	26.166667 (6.2329)
YPG	354.166667 (453.404167)	371 (88.3722)
TCPG	1.583333 (1.139683)	1.5 (2.6427)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.416667 (15.415717)	25.416667 (44.779083)
YPG	339 (244.0122)	404.166667 (712.060833)
TFPG	1.583333 (2.026983)	1.166667 (0.2779)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.45%	80.61%
Defense	72.2%	71.87%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.708333 (37.751942)	23.791667 (10.824308)

uDrove Humanitarian Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, Idaho - December 18, 2010 - 5:30 PM
#18 Northern Illinois loses to #48 Fresno State by 6.5639

Team	Northern Illinois	Fresno State
SOS	0.1548	0.4304
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	37.846154 (11.717169)	30 (25.824)
YPG	438.923077 (135.890585)	369.916667 (318.424267)
TCPG	1.076923 (1.820431)	1.916667 (2.183467)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.076923 (32.247631)	29.166667 (33.226667)
YPG	332.615385 (562.253046)	355.916667 (405.460267)
TFPG	1.846154 (0.571569)	1.083333 (0.932533)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	98.54%	92.68%
Defense	65.55%	93.65%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.50641 (22.471918)	24.538462 (29.035815)

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans - December 18, 2010 - 9:00 PM
#44 Ohio beats #57 Troy by 0.867

Team	Ohio	Troy
SOS	0.192	0.2806
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28 (10.752)	32.916667 (18.472833)
YPG	327.25 (125.664)	441.083333 (247.535967)
TCPG	2.5 (4.04)	2.5 (3.597)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.75 (35.148)	31 (44.6028)
YPG	332.666667 (537.589333)	418.333333 (601.898)
TFPG	2.083333 (0.8)	2.25 (1.2627)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	97.78%	85.29%
Defense	74.72%	84.69%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.5 (27.6774)	27.333333 (26.810417)

Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, Fla. - December 21, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#27 Southern Miss loses to #59 Louisville by 7.5362

Team	Southern Miss	Louisville
SOS	0.3009	0.3794
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	37.583333 (22.61765)	26 (19.7288)
YPG	458.166667 (275.7247)	375.833333 (285.182333)
TCPG	1.333333 (1.864267)	1.25 (1.5515)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.416667 (41.130383)	18.666667 (23.169067)
YPG	362.166667 (506.381433)	304.666667 (378.152267)
TFPG	2.083333 (1.25375)	1.5 (1.1382)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	93.75%	79.06%
Defense	92.83%	70.02%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.125 (22.893358)	27.708333 (30.429592)

MAACO Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas - December 22, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#19 Utah loses to #3 Boise State by 14.786

Team	Utah	Boise State
SOS	0.4497	0.5553
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35.583333 (32.00365)	46.666667 (51.828)
YPG	404.75 (364.03215)	519.5 (576.9567)
TCPG	1.916667 (2.109483)	1.25 (1.11175)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.833333 (21.828567)	13.583333 (12.081017)
YPG	317.583333 (349.532217)	259.25 (230.57695)
TFPG	1.75 (1.57395)	2 (2.2212)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	100.47%	102.66%
Defense	71.37%	59.88%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.583333 (22.042333)	33.25 (36.828283)

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego - December 23, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#28 Navy loses to #34 San Diego State by 0.3119

Team	Navy	San Diego State
SOS	0.3471	0.3216
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.909091 (18.680291)	35 (22.512)
YPG	389.454545 (270.359345)	448.833333 (288.6896)
TCPG	1.272727 (1.661927)	1.75 (2.3744)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.181818 (27.659218)	22.75 (30.8672)
YPG	359.545455 (469.494455)	352.25 (477.9328)
TFPG	1.636364 (1.135964)	1.333333 (0.8576)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	78.96%	89.12%
Defense	67.33%	73.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.829545 (24.773745)	28.090909 (25.085609)

Sheraton Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu - December 24, 2010 - 8:00 PM
#15 Hawaii beats #23 Tulsa by 9.1502

Team	Hawaii	Tulsa
SOS	0.3827	0.3167
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	39.923077 (30.557123)	39.666667 (25.124867)
YPG	496.846154 (380.286046)	504.916667 (319.814217)
TCPG	1.538462 (1.899385)	1.416667 (1.936017)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.692308 (28.015923)	29.916667 (40.884117)
YPG	344.230769 (424.987308)	443.583333 (606.200983)
TFPG	2.769231 (2.119569)	2.5 (1.5835)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	91.83%	89.78%
Defense	75.34%	77.08%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	34.919872 (35.72062)	31.179487 (26.570395)

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Detroit - December 26, 2010 - 8:30 PM
#69 Florida International loses to #37 Toledo by 2.9138

Team	Florida International	Toledo
SOS	0.3476	0.4183
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.333333 (19.697333)	27.583333 (23.076217)
YPG	402.333333 (279.702133)	359.416667 (300.687983)
TCPG	1.666667 (2.174667)	1.666667 (1.939)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.916667 (35.120867)	28.083333 (32.67215)
YPG	363.333333 (474.077333)	369.5 (429.8763)
TFPG	1.75 (1.2166)	2.75 (2.30065)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.48%	87.71%
Defense	84.67%	86.86%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.208333 (26.184742)	27.25 (29.098542)

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Shreveport, La. - December 27, 2010 - 5:00 PM
#31 Air Force beats #70 Georgia Tech by 9.5546

Team	Air Force	Georgia Tech
SOS	0.5083	0.4105
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.25 (32.78535)	27.583333 (22.645917)
YPG	437.416667 (444.677783)	414.916667 (340.646583)
TCPG	1.416667 (1.39315)	1.916667 (2.25975)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.25 (21.88065)	26.166667 (30.8505)
YPG	351.75 (345.91095)	378.75 (446.54625)
TFPG	1.5 (1.5249)	1.75 (1.43675)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	84.26%	75.98%
Defense	72.29%	78.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.208333 (31.817925)	24.916667 (22.263283)

Insight Bowl
Tempe, Ariz. - December 28, 2010 - 10:00 PM
#14 Missouri beats #33 Iowa by 2.2965

Team	Missouri	Iowa
SOS	0.7017	0.6787
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.333333 (42.5698)	29.083333 (39.477717)
YPG	401.083333 (562.88035)	379.416667 (515.020183)
TCPG	1.333333 (0.795467)	0.75 (0.48195)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	15.166667 (9.048433)	16.416667 (10.54935)
YPG	350.5 (209.1083)	317.083333 (203.75775)
TFPG	2.25 (3.15765)	1.833333 (2.488567)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	86.43%	87.6%
Defense	49.45%	59.17%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.375 (26.559575)	22.125 (24.263075)

Champs Sports Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, Fla. - December 28, 2010 - 6:30 PM
#22 West Virginia loses to #29 North Carolina State by 6.0687

Team	West Virginia	North Carolina State
SOS	0.4904	0.6381
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.666667 (26.154667)	32.583333 (41.58285)
YPG	376.583333 (369.352933)	397.833333 (507.7149)
TCPG	2 (2.0384)	1.75 (1.26665)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	12.75 (12.9948)	22.5 (16.2855)
YPG	251.333333 (256.158933)	340.5 (246.4539)
TFPG	1.75 (1.7164)	2 (2.5524)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.93%	93.6%
Defense	57.98%	75.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.583333 (21.220083)	22.666667 (27.288825)

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman Beltway Bowl
Washington, D.C. - December 29, 2010 - 2:30 PM
#73 East Carolina beats #30 Maryland by 7.4674

Team	East Carolina	Maryland
SOS	0.6994	0.5379
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	38.166667 (53.387533)	30.666667 (32.9912)
YPG	446.5 (624.5642)	342.416667 (368.37185)
TCPG	2.083333 (1.2525)	1 (0.9242)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	43.416667 (26.1021)	22.333333 (20.640467)
YPG	480.25 (288.7263)	353.083333 (326.319617)
TFPG	1.583333 (2.214767)	2.083333 (2.24125)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	97.69%	102.35%
Defense	103.32%	72.29%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.25 (37.014)	37.041667 (29.54665)

Texas Bowl
Houston - December 29, 2010 - 6:00 PM
#53 Illinois beats #47 Baylor by 7.8137

Team	Illinois	Baylor
SOS	0.7466	0.6381
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.083333 (47.906833)	32.583333 (41.58285)
YPG	385.75 (576.0019)	478.5 (610.6617)
TCPG	1.583333 (0.802433)	1.5 (1.0857)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.25 (12.2899)	29.833333 (21.593367)
YPG	335.833333 (170.200333)	427.25 (309.24355)
TFPG	2.083333 (3.110833)	1.666667 (2.127)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	95.05%	77.82%
Defense	82.52%	79.8%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.958333 (34.7501)	28.416667 (26.936375)

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio - December 29, 2010 - 9:15 PM
#12 Oklahoma State beats #39 Arizona by 12.1601

Team	Oklahoma State	Arizona
SOS	0.7183	0.6598
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	44.916667 (64.527283)	29.75 (39.2581)
YPG	537.583333 (772.292217)	446.333333 (588.981467)
TCPG	1.833333 (1.0329)	1.5 (1.0206)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.75 (15.63435)	21.583333 (14.6853)
YPG	412.833333 (232.5903)	342.75 (233.2071)
TFPG	2.5 (3.5915)	1.5 (1.9794)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	95.49%	76.18%
Defense	76.82%	71.97%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.25 (39.606292)	28.75 (27.446225)

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
San Diego - December 30, 2010 - 10:00 PM
#20 Nebraska beats #72 Washington by 0.5978

Team	Nebraska	Washington
SOS	0.6159	0.8279
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.692308 (40.270385)	22.083333 (36.565583)
YPG	414.230769 (510.249462)	364.5 (603.5391)
TCPG	1.692308 (1.300031)	1.416667 (0.487617)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	17.230769 (13.236677)	31.166667 (10.727567)
YPG	304.230769 (233.710077)	401.166667 (138.081567)
TFPG	1.769231 (2.179338)	1.416667 (2.345717)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	90.2%	69.24%
Defense	64.73%	88.79%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.929487 (25.498976)	19.657051 (24.90113)

New Era Pinstripe Yankees Bowl
Bronx, N.Y. - December 30, 2010 - 3:20 PM
#52 Kansas State beats #58 Syracuse by 12.851

Team	Kansas State	Syracuse
SOS	0.5615	0.2966
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.583333 (37.714083)	21 (12.4572)
YPG	377.666667 (424.119667)	308.25 (182.8539)
TCPG	1.5 (1.3155)	1.75 (2.4619)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.5 (24.9945)	18.083333 (25.439633)
YPG	441.333333 (387.049333)	293.75 (413.2475)
TFPG	1.833333 (2.058833)	1.416667 (0.840367)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	101.63%	77.86%
Defense	73.8%	70.35%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.833333 (31.576858)	24.75 (18.72585)

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tenn. - December 30, 2010 - 6:40 PM
#46 North Carolina loses to #67 Tennessee by 0.1005

Team	North Carolina	Tennessee
SOS	0.5595	0.589
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.166667 (31.5185)	27 (31.806)
YPG	400.333333 (447.973)	365.833333 (430.951667)
TCPG	1.833333 (1.615167)	1.75 (1.4385)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.916667 (20.189583)	24.666667 (20.276)
YPG	355 (312.755)	381.916667 (313.9355)
TFPG	2 (2.238)	2.166667 (2.552333)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.41%	84.35%
Defense	73.78%	73.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.416667 (25.89725)	24.958333 (25.997792)

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Dallas - December 30, 2010 - 12:00 PM
#60 Army loses to #64 SMU by 11.9539

Team	Army	SMU
SOS	0.3538	0.6001
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.5 (19.459)	26.615385 (31.943785)
YPG	338.083333 (239.227767)	416 (499.2832)
TCPG	1.166667 (1.5078)	1.769231 (1.415031)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.166667 (32.5254)	26.384615 (21.102415)
YPG	332 (429.0768)	363.769231 (290.942631)
TFPG	2.25 (1.5921)	1.076923 (1.292523)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.96%	73.12%
Defense	86.63%	82.89%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.942308 (20.280708)	25.891026 (32.234592)

Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas - December 31, 2010 - 2:00 PM
#45 Notre Dame beats #41 Miami by 11.5977

Team	Notre Dame	Miami
SOS	0.9814	0.705
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.75 (50.5421)	27.083333 (38.1875)
YPG	378.25 (742.4291)	422.583333 (595.8425)
TCPG	2 (0.0744)	2.666667 (1.573333)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	20.5 (0.7626)	19.666667 (11.603333)
YPG	353.166667 (13.1378)	317.333333 (187.226667)
TFPG	1.75 (3.4349)	2.25 (3.1725)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.8%	73.25%
Defense	66.34%	70.83%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	22.708333 (31.072717)	23.791667 (19.47505)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tenn. - December 31, 2010 - 3:30 PM
#49 Georgia beats #21 UCF by 19.4728

Team	Georgia	UCF
SOS	0.6377	0.2319
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.25 (43.68245)	33.769231 (15.662169)
YPG	393.75 (502.18875)	384.230769 (178.206231)
TCPG	1.166667 (0.845367)	1.230769 (1.890708)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.083333 (16.726183)	18 (27.6516)
YPG	335.916667 (243.405217)	318.076923 (488.629769)
TFPG	2 (2.5508)	1.615385 (0.749215)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	99.41%	100.44%
Defense	78.53%	64.67%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.125 (35.667025)	28.426282 (16.194176)

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta - December 31, 2010 - 7:30 PM
#25 South Carolina beats #26 Florida State by 7.375

Team	South Carolina	Florida State
SOS	0.8599	0.7283
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32 (55.0336)	31.769231 (46.275062)
YPG	391.153846 (672.706385)	386.923077 (563.592154)
TCPG	1.615385 (0.452631)	1.692308 (0.9196)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.923077 (6.423046)	22.846154 (12.4146)
YPG	357.923077 (100.290046)	358.538462 (194.8298)
TFPG	1.923077 (3.307308)	1.769231 (2.577062)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	93.5%	93.84%
Defense	73.19%	72.82%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.423077 (33.7241)	27.346154 (26.349054)

Meineke Car Care Car-related Charlotte Bowl
Charlotte, N.C. - December 31, 2010 - 12:00 PM
#56 South Florida loses to #62 Clemson by 11.8932

Team	South Florida	Clemson
SOS	0.4484	0.7076
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.5 (21.0748)	23.833333 (33.728933)
YPG	312.083333 (279.876333)	338.333333 (478.809333)
TCPG	1.666667 (1.838667)	1.75 (1.0234)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.5 (21.5124)	17.75 (10.3802)
YPG	319.75 (352.7482)	323.666667 (189.280267)
TFPG	1.416667 (1.270467)	1.5 (2.1228)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	86.06%	80.51%
Defense	69.7%	62.67%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	20.625 (15.7275)	21.666667 (27.620667)

Outback Bowl
Tampa, Fla. - January 1, 2011 - 1:00 PM
#42 Florida beats #50 Penn State by 3.8333

Team	Florida	Penn State
SOS	0.7428	0.7432
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.25 (43.4538)	24.583333 (36.540667)
YPG	356.833333 (530.1116)	374.083333 (556.037467)
TCPG	2.083333 (1.071667)	1.333333 (0.6848)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.083333 (10.845267)	22.583333 (11.5988)
YPG	302.916667 (155.820333)	352.5 (181.044)
TFPG	2 (2.9712)	1.25 (1.858)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	93.68%	75.1%
Defense	79.54%	73.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.916667 (27.5263)	22.833333 (23.692967)

Capital One Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Fla. - January 1, 2011 - 1:00 PM
#16 Alabama beats #11 Michigan State by 12.1529

Team	Alabama	Michigan State
SOS	0.7223	0.564
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.583333 (49.959083)	31.333333 (35.344)
YPG	435.583333 (629.243683)	406.833333 (458.908)
TCPG	1.166667 (0.647967)	1.5 (1.308)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	14.083333 (7.821883)	20.083333 (17.512667)
YPG	296 (164.3984)	337.75 (294.518)
TFPG	2.083333 (3.009583)	2 (2.256)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	90.74%	88.02%
Defense	54.38%	67.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.333333 (33.735875)	22.708333 (21.582942)

Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Fla. - January 1, 2011 - 1:30 PM
#32 Mississippi State loses to #54 Michigan by 6.4788

Team	Mississippi State	Michigan
SOS	0.6767	0.7638
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.083333 (36.654583)	34.333333 (52.4476)
YPG	394.333333 (533.690733)	500.916667 (765.2003)
TCPG	1.666667 (1.077667)	2.25 (1.0629)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	20.333333 (13.147533)	33.833333 (15.982867)
YPG	358.083333 (231.536683)	447.916667 (211.595833)
TFPG	2.166667 (2.932367)	1.5 (2.2914)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	78.49%	78.33%
Defense	64.9%	86.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.458333 (26.318725)	27.333333 (32.797567)

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO
Pasadena, Calif. - January 1, 2011 - 5:00 PM
#7 Wisconsin beats #1 TCU by 2.7116

Team	Wisconsin	TCU
SOS	0.4619	0.3231
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	43.333333 (40.031333)	43.333333 (28.002)
YPG	450.166667 (415.863967)	488.75 (315.83025)
TCPG	0.75 (0.80715)	1.083333 (1.466617)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	20.5 (22.0621)	11.416667 (15.455883)
YPG	323.5 (348.1507)	215.416667 (291.631083)
TFPG	1.916667 (1.770617)	1.833333 (1.1847)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	110.01%	101.33%
Defense	72.42%	60.57%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.375 (27.743608)	31.916667 (25.03205)

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Ariz. - January 1, 2011 - 10:30 PM
#35 Connecticut loses to #9 Oklahoma by 31.6879

Team	Connecticut	Oklahoma
SOS	0.3814	0.8851
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.916667 (20.532033)	36.384615 (64.408046)
YPG	325 (247.91)	478.461538 (846.972615)
TCPG	1.416667 (1.7527)	1.230769 (0.282831)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.833333 (24.5378)	21.923077 (5.037923)
YPG	353.666667 (437.5564)	362.923077 (83.399723)
TFPG	2.416667 (1.843433)	2.307692 (4.085077)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	94.65%	86.91%
Defense	64.09%	69.04%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.419872 (12.784978)	28.108974 (44.472923)

TicketCity Bowl
Dallas - January 1, 2011 - 12:00 PM
#61 Northwestern loses to #55 Texas Tech by 14.3305

Team	Northwestern	Texas Tech
SOS	0.4542	0.6586
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.416667 (23.0885)	32.083333 (42.260167)
YPG	392.416667 (356.4713)	454.083333 (598.118567)
TCPG	1.833333 (2.001267)	2 (1.3656)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.666667 (30.200933)	30.333333 (20.7116)
YPG	415.833333 (453.923667)	464.583333 (317.2175)
TFPG	1.666667 (1.514)	1.833333 (2.414867)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	74.02%	80.75%
Defense	76.04%	74.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.875 (21.90005)	29.875 (36.23055)

Discover Orange Bowl
Miami - January 3, 2011 - 8:30 PM
#6 Stanford beats #10 Virginia Tech by 1.8008

Team	Stanford	Virginia Tech
SOS	0.506	0.5287
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	40.333333 (40.817333)	35.538462 (37.578369)
YPG	466.833333 (472.435333)	411.076923 (434.672738)
TCPG	1.25 (1.235)	0.923077 (0.870092)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	17.833333 (17.619333)	19.076923 (17.981908)
YPG	327.75 (323.817)	348.230769 (328.242323)
TFPG	2.416667 (2.445667)	2.307692 (2.440154)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	98.74%	98.8%
Defense	62.18%	62.61%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.705128 (29.399621)	26.685897 (27.598851)

Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans - January 4, 2011 - 8:30 PM
#5 Ohio State loses to #13 Arkansas by 3.3016

Team	Ohio State	Arkansas
SOS	0.6225	0.7582
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	39.416667 (49.07375)	37.333333 (56.612267)
YPG	448.833333 (558.7975)	488.416667 (740.635033)
TCPG	1.25 (0.94375)	1.833333 (0.8866)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.333333 (10.066667)	22.75 (11.0019)
YPG	250.25 (188.93875)	339.75 (164.3031)
TFPG	2.416667 (3.00875)	2.083333 (3.159167)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	100.37%	87.36%
Defense	60.89%	76.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.083333 (30.037825)	25.333333 (33.339467)

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Mobile, Ala. - January 6, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#81 Middle Tennessee State loses to #36 Miami (Ohio) by 18.2894

Team	Middle Tennessee State	Miami (Ohio)
SOS	0	0.3227
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.916667 (0)	20.538462 (13.255523)
YPG	372.083333 (0)	346.923077 (223.904154)
TCPG	2.75 (5.5)	1.692308 (2.2924)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.5 (55)	23.384615 (31.6768)
YPG	384.416667 (768.833333)	335.769231 (454.833)
TFPG	1.416667 (0)	2.307692 (1.489385)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	82.67%	67.66%
Defense	81.76%	79.59%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.150641 (15.8384)	24.019231 (34.127762)

AT&T Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas - January 7, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#17 LSU loses to #24 Texas A&M by 4.5658

Team	LSU	Texas A&M
SOS	0.7562	0.8111
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.75 (43.4815)	31.833333 (51.640033)
YPG	333.75 (504.7635)	447.583333 (726.069683)
TCPG	1.75 (0.8533)	2.25 (0.85005)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	17.75 (8.6549)	20.333333 (7.681933)
YPG	301.666667 (147.092667)	357.5 (135.0635)
TFPG	2.333333 (3.528933)	2 (3.2444)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	98.45%	81.28%
Defense	67.25%	65%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.541667 (25.581717)	24.791667 (30.147467)

BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, Ala. - January 8, 2011 - 12:00 PM
#43 Pittsburgh beats #65 Kentucky by 9.3729

Team	Pittsburgh	Kentucky
SOS	0.626	0.4581
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.25 (32.865)	33 (30.2346)
YPG	366.5 (458.858)	437.25 (400.60845)
TCPG	1.666667 (1.246667)	1.583333 (1.716017)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.75 (14.773)	28.5 (30.8883)
YPG	304.25 (227.579)	353.916667 (383.574883)
TFPG	1.75 (2.191)	1.25 (1.14525)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.86%	86.25%
Defense	74.19%	92.03%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.375 (31.87665)	26.375 (22.5038)

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco - January 9, 2011 - 9:00 PM
#8 Nevada loses to #51 Boston College by 4.5363

Team	Nevada	Boston College
SOS	0.2946	0.5471
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	42.615385 (25.108985)	18.916667 (20.698617)
YPG	535.538462 (315.539262)	308.5 (337.5607)
TCPG	1.230769 (1.736369)	1.916667 (1.736117)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.076923 (31.146123)	19.5 (17.6631)
YPG	377.307692 (532.305692)	309.833333 (280.647033)
TFPG	1.692308 (0.997108)	2.5 (2.7355)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	90.94%	70.08%
Defense	66.87%	71.93%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.057692 (21.386042)	20.496795 (25.92237)

Tostitos BCS National Championship Game Controversial Crystal Football Bowl
Glendale, Ariz. - January 10, 2011 - 8:30 PM
#2 Oregon loses to #4 Auburn by 18.3805

Team	Oregon	Auburn
SOS	0.403	0.7703
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	49.333333 (39.762667)	42.692308 (65.771769)
YPG	539.166667 (434.568333)	497.692308 (766.744769)
TCPG	1.833333 (2.189)	1.153846 (0.530077)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	18.416667 (21.9895)	24.461538 (11.237631)
YPG	331.583333 (395.9105)	361.923077 (166.267462)
TFPG	2.916667 (2.350833)	1.538462 (2.370154)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	104.57%	98.03%
Defense	63.48%	77.24%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	36.897436 (25.500149)	30.554487 (43.880635)

Week 15 Rankings (Post-Army/Navy)

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	TCU (12-0)	1	0.000000
2	0.978168	Oregon (12-0)	2	-5.0E-6
3	0.946684	Boise State (11-1)	3	-9.0E-6
4	0.944539	Auburn (13-0)	4	4.0E-6
5	0.930814	Ohio State (11-1)	5	-2.0E-5
6	0.89186	Stanford (11-1)	6	1.0E-6
7	0.888585	Wisconsin (11-1)	7	-4.0E-6
8	0.879716	Nevada (12-1)	8	-9.0E-6
9	0.847117	Oklahoma (11-2)	9	-8.0E-6
10	0.831567	Virginia Tech (11-2)	10	1.1E-5
11	0.822079	Michigan State (11-1)	11	-8.0E-6
12	0.802723	Oklahoma State (10-2)	12	-3.0E-6
13	0.795841	Arkansas (10-2)	13	-3.0E-6
14	0.792816	Missouri (10-2)	14	-3.0E-6
15	0.787198	Hawaii (10-3)	15	-2.36E-4
16	0.77884	Alabama (9-3)	16	-8.0E-6
17	0.765561	LSU (10-2)	17	-3.0E-6
18	0.754202	Northern Illinois (10-3)	18	-2.2E-5
19	0.752908	Utah (10-2)	19	-1.2E-5
20	0.746234	Nebraska (10-3)	20	-3.0E-6
21	0.724054	UCF (10-3)	21	-7.0E-6
22	0.708467	West Virginia (9-3)	22	-7.0E-6
23	0.700784	Tulsa (9-3)	23	-1.3E-5
24	0.699822	Texas A&M (9-3)	24	8.0E-6
25	0.664777	South Carolina (9-4)	25	-2.0E-6
26	0.647674	Florida State (9-4)	26	1.7E-5
27	0.638833	Southern Miss (8-4)	27	-7.0E-6
28	0.637354	Navy (8-3)	33	0.021114
29	0.634868	North Carolina State (8-4)	28	1.9E-5
30	0.633615	Maryland (8-4)	29	2.76E-4
31	0.630931	Air Force (8-4)	30	2.2E-5
32	0.630263	Mississippi State (8-4)	31	-1.0E-6
33	0.622562	Iowa (7-5)	32	-1.0E-6
34	0.61248	San Diego State (8-4)	34	-6.0E-6
35	0.612334	Connecticut (8-4)	35	-3.4E-5
36	0.603882	Miami (Ohio) (9-4)	36	-3.3E-5
37	0.599051	Toledo (8-4)	37	-2.1E-5
38	0.586832	USC (8-5)	38	-1.9E-5
39	0.578411	Arizona (7-5)	39	-1.0E-6
40	0.572652	Temple (8-4)	40	-2.34E-4
41	0.567386	Miami (7-5)	41	4.0E-6
42	0.565916	Florida (7-5)	42	-1.0E-6
43	0.563815	Pittsburgh (7-5)	43	-2.2E-5
44	0.560402	Ohio (8-4)	44	-4.9E-5
45	0.555147	Notre Dame (7-5)	45	3.7E-5
46	0.552699	North Carolina (7-5)	46	-2.2E-5
47	0.550297	Baylor (7-5)	47	-1.0E-6
48	0.546594	Fresno State (8-4)	48	-5.0E-6
49	0.541937	Georgia (6-6)	49	-1.0E-6
50	0.537093	Penn State (7-5)	50	-3.3E-5
51	0.533663	Boston College (7-5)	51	-5.0E-6
52	0.524026	Kansas State (7-5)	52	-1.6E-5
53	0.52373	Illinois (6-6)	53	0.0
54	0.520199	Michigan (7-5)	55	-5.0E-6
55	0.519163	Texas Tech (7-5)	56	1.0E-5
56	0.513361	South Florida (7-5)	57	-1.6E-5
57	0.50739	Troy (7-5)	58	-5.0E-6
58	0.506967	Syracuse (7-5)	59	-1.8E-5
59	0.504584	Louisville (6-6)	60	-5.0E-6
60	0.49467	Army (6-6)	54	-0.026507
61	0.493232	Northwestern (7-5)	61	1.0E-5
62	0.482718	Clemson (6-6)	63	5.0E-6
63	0.482718	Western Michigan (6-6)	62	-2.6E-5
64	0.481123	SMU (7-6)	64	2.55E-4
65	0.480031	Kentucky (6-6)	65	0.0
66	0.478987	Arizona State (6-6)	66	0.0
67	0.476767	Tennessee (6-6)	67	0.0
68	0.476502	BYU (6-6)	68	-4.0E-6
69	0.467468	Florida International (6-6)	69	-9.0E-6
70	0.4614	Georgia Tech (6-6)	70	5.0E-6
71	0.45404	California (5-7)	71	0.0
72	0.436298	Washington (6-6)	72	0.0
73	0.427215	East Carolina (6-6)	73	1.0E-5
74	0.416596	UTEP (6-6)	74	-4.0E-6
75	0.415288	Idaho (6-7)	75	-4.0E-6
76	0.407555	Houston (5-7)	76	-4.0E-6
77	0.404315	Texas (5-7)	77	0.0
78	0.382035	Iowa State (5-7)	79	0.0
79	0.382001	Colorado (5-7)	80	-1.3E-5
80	0.381809	Kent State (5-7)	78	-2.37E-4
81	0.381744	Middle Tennessee State (6-6)	81	-4.0E-6
82	0.379416	Oregon State (5-7)	82	0.0
83	0.359125	Louisiana Tech (5-7)	83	2.74E-4
84	0.349499	Indiana (5-7)	84	1.2E-5
85	0.339955	Marshall (5-7)	85	-3.0E-6
86	0.333802	Louisiana Monroe (5-7)	86	-3.0E-6
87	0.33088	Cinncinati (4-8)	87	-1.4E-5
88	0.32589	Arkansas State (4-8)	88	2.87E-4
89	0.319972	Rutgers (4-8)	89	-2.47E-4
90	0.318295	Mississippi (4-8)	90	-1.4E-5
91	0.31479	UAB (4-8)	91	1.1E-5
92	0.31383	Virginia (4-8)	92	-2.6E-5
93	0.292091	Tulane (4-8)	93	-2.33E-4
94	0.289996	Purdue (4-8)	94	-3.0E-6
95	0.273165	Rice (4-8)	95	-1.7E-5
96	0.272564	Utah State (4-8)	96	-3.0E-6
97	0.268951	Minnesota (3-9)	97	1.0E-6
98	0.26266	UCLA (4-8)	98	2.0E-6
99	0.25033	Ball State (4-8)	99	-2.1E-5
100	0.249973	Central Michigan (3-9)	100	2.8E-4
101	0.239453	North Texas (3-9)	101	-2.23E-4
102	0.238265	Florida Atlantic (4-8)	102	-2.0E-6
103	0.215757	Wake Forest (3-9)	103	2.84E-4
104	0.21295	Louisiana Lafayette (3-9)	104	-2.0E-6
105	0.211021	Duke (3-9)	105	7.0E-5
106	0.201607	Wyoming (3-9)	106	-2.0E-6
107	0.188305	Colorado State (3-9)	107	-1.0E-6
108	0.181329	Western Kentucky (2-10)	108	-2.0E-6
109	0.179311	Kansas (3-9)	109	2.0E-6
110	0.150429	Bowling Green (2-10)	110	-1.6E-5
111	0.147779	Washington State (2-10)	111	1.4E-5
112	0.142999	Vanderbilt (2-10)	112	-1.0E-6
113	0.13338	Buffalo (2-10)	113	-2.8E-5
114	0.100763	UNLV (2-11)	114	-1.4E-5
115	0.09223	Eastern Michigan (2-10)	115	-2.15E-4
116	0.089827	San Jose State (2-11)	116	-1.0E-6
117	0.03365	Akron (1-11)	117	-2.7E-5
118	0.028647	New Mexico State (1-11)	118	0.0
119	0.008454	Memphis (1-11)	119	4.0E-6
120	0.000000	New Mexico (1-11)	120	0.000000

You Are Not Forgotten

Go Army, Beat Navy! Go Navy, beat Army! Personal rooting preferences aside (go Navy!), I didn't want you to think I'd forgotten about our service academies. Although the Commander-in-Chief Trophy has already been claimed by Air Force this year, the Army-Navy game still holds a lot of intrigue. For starters, both teams are bowl-eligible again, so this is a way for each team to build some momentum headed into their respective bowls. I know the latest rankings say "final" on them, but there is indeed one more game before the bowls officially start. And though one game won't have a lot of impact on most teams, it may be enough to shuffle teams up or down a spot in the rankings depending on the outcome. I'll post one more set of rankings following the game along with my usual bowl prediction catastrophe.

Week 14 Rankings (Final Pre-Bowl Rankings)

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	TCU (12-0)	1	0.000000
2	0.978174	Oregon (12-0)	2	0.026166
3	0.946694	Boise State (11-1)	4	0.031636
4	0.944534	Auburn (13-0)	5	0.031406
5	0.930834	Ohio State (11-1)	3	1.53E-4
6	0.891859	Stanford (11-1)	6	-2.5E-4
7	0.888589	Wisconsin (11-1)	7	-3.2E-4
8	0.879725	Nevada (12-1)	8	0.026063
9	0.847126	Oklahoma (11-2)	10	0.031345
10	0.831555	Virginia Tech (11-2)	12	0.030592
11	0.822088	Michigan State (11-1)	9	-0.002195
12	0.802727	Oklahoma State (10-2)	11	-4.2E-5
13	0.795844	Arkansas (10-2)	13	-3.9E-5
14	0.79282	Missouri (10-2)	15	-6.94E-4
15	0.787434	Hawaii (10-3)	20	0.039194
16	0.778849	Alabama (9-3)	17	5.47E-4
17	0.765564	LSU (10-2)	18	-4.86E-4
18	0.754224	Northern Illinois (10-3)	14	-0.040718
19	0.75292	Utah (10-2)	19	-7.39E-4
20	0.746238	Nebraska (10-3)	16	-0.046767
21	0.724062	UCF (10-3)	24	0.031035
22	0.708474	West Virginia (9-3)	26	0.02757
23	0.700797	Tulsa (9-3)	22	-2.72E-4
24	0.699813	Texas A&M (9-3)	23	-9.93E-4
25	0.66478	South Carolina (9-4)	21	-0.048684
26	0.647656	Florida State (9-4)	25	-0.042904
27	0.638841	Southern Miss (8-4)	27	5.44E-4
28	0.634849	North Carolina State (8-4)	28	2.16E-4
29	0.633338	Maryland (8-4)	29	-8.24E-4
30	0.630908	Air Force (8-4)	30	4.85E-4
31	0.630265	Mississippi State (8-4)	31	3.35E-4
32	0.622563	Iowa (7-5)	32	3.8E-4
33	0.61624	Navy (7-3)	33	-6.07E-4
34	0.612487	San Diego State (8-4)	35	3.3E-5
35	0.612368	Connecticut (8-4)	37	0.026649
36	0.603915	Miami (Ohio) (9-4)	39	0.033173
37	0.599072	Toledo (8-4)	36	-9.32E-4
38	0.586851	USC (8-5)	43	0.031849
39	0.578412	Arizona (7-5)	34	-0.037329
40	0.572887	Temple (8-4)	38	3.91E-4
41	0.567381	Miami (7-5)	40	0.001023
42	0.565917	Florida (7-5)	41	-1.12E-4
43	0.563838	Pittsburgh (7-5)	53	0.040519
44	0.560451	Ohio (8-4)	42	1.74E-4
45	0.555109	Notre Dame (7-5)	44	5.67E-4
46	0.552721	North Carolina (7-5)	45	6.84E-4
47	0.550298	Baylor (7-5)	47	6.27E-4
48	0.5466	Fresno State (8-4)	54	0.023937
49	0.541938	Georgia (6-6)	49	0.001488
50	0.537127	Penn State (7-5)	50	-4.72E-4
51	0.533668	Boston College (7-5)	51	6.3E-5
52	0.524043	Kansas State (7-5)	52	-9.45E-4
53	0.523731	Illinois (6-6)	46	-0.027959
54	0.521178	Army (6-5)	55	8.19E-4
55	0.520205	Michigan (7-5)	56	-5.2E-5
56	0.519153	Texas Tech (7-5)	57	-3.58E-4
57	0.513378	South Florida (7-5)	48	-0.032308
58	0.507395	Troy (7-5)	68	0.045282
59	0.506985	Syracuse (7-5)	59	3.23E-4
60	0.50459	Louisville (6-6)	60	0.001368
61	0.493221	Northwestern (7-5)	62	-8.81E-4
62	0.482744	Western Michigan (6-6)	64	9.21E-4
63	0.482713	Clemson (6-6)	63	2.85E-4
64	0.480867	SMU (7-6)	58	-0.035684
65	0.480032	Kentucky (6-6)	65	0.00128
66	0.478987	Arizona State (6-6)	71	0.035203
67	0.476767	Tennessee (6-6)	66	3.36E-4
68	0.476507	BYU (6-6)	67	1.18E-4
69	0.467478	Florida International (6-6)	61	-0.032837
70	0.461394	Georgia Tech (6-6)	69	0.001652
71	0.45404	California (5-7)	70	0.00205
72	0.436298	Washington (6-6)	75	0.028944
73	0.427205	East Carolina (6-6)	72	2.11E-4
74	0.4166	UTEP (6-6)	74	-2.0E-5
75	0.415292	Idaho (6-7)	79	0.031846
76	0.40756	Houston (5-7)	76	0.001249
77	0.404315	Texas (5-7)	77	3.05E-4
78	0.382047	Kent State (5-7)	82	0.001457
79	0.382034	Iowa State (5-7)	80	-7.05E-4
80	0.382015	Colorado (5-7)	81	4.73E-4
81	0.381749	Middle Tennessee State (6-6)	86	0.036198
82	0.379415	Oregon State (5-7)	73	-0.037969
83	0.358851	Louisiana Tech (5-7)	78	-0.031572
84	0.349487	Indiana (5-7)	84	-7.0E-5
85	0.339959	Marshall (5-7)	87	2.87E-4
86	0.333806	Louisiana Monroe (5-7)	88	7.21E-4
87	0.330895	Cinncinati (4-8)	83	-0.034942
88	0.325602	Arkansas State (4-8)	89	0.001781
89	0.320219	Rutgers (4-8)	85	-0.02908
90	0.31831	Mississippi (4-8)	90	0.001842
91	0.314779	UAB (4-8)	91	0.001464
92	0.313857	Virginia (4-8)	92	0.001881
93	0.292324	Tulane (4-8)	95	7.59E-4
94	0.29	Purdue (4-8)	96	-6.0E-6
95	0.273183	Rice (4-8)	98	3.8E-4
96	0.272567	Utah State (4-8)	93	-0.034592
97	0.268949	Minnesota (3-9)	99	0.001182
98	0.262658	UCLA (4-8)	94	-0.031667
99	0.250351	Ball State (4-8)	100	1.46E-4
100	0.249693	Central Michigan (3-9)	101	0.002501
101	0.239677	North Texas (3-9)	102	0.001789
102	0.238267	Florida Atlantic (4-8)	97	-0.042655
103	0.215473	Wake Forest (3-9)	103	4.18E-4
104	0.212953	Louisiana Lafayette (3-9)	104	0.001268
105	0.21095	Duke (3-9)	105	0.001241
106	0.20161	Wyoming (3-9)	106	3.03E-4
107	0.188307	Colorado State (3-9)	107	0.001021
108	0.181331	Western Kentucky (2-10)	108	0.001339
109	0.179308	Kansas (3-9)	109	-4.2E-4
110	0.150445	Bowling Green (2-10)	111	0.002144
111	0.147765	Washington State (2-10)	110	-0.021341
112	0.143001	Vanderbilt (2-10)	112	7.64E-4
113	0.133409	Buffalo (2-10)	114	0.002584
114	0.100778	UNLV (2-11)	113	-0.035358
115	0.092446	Eastern Michigan (2-10)	116	6.1E-4
116	0.089828	San Jose State (2-11)	115	-0.020835
117	0.033678	Akron (1-11)	117	0.001261
118	0.028648	New Mexico State (1-11)	118	0.001601
119	0.008449	Memphis (1-11)	119	0.001204
120	0.000000	New Mexico (1-11)	120	0.000000