Monday, September 25, 2006
Okay kids, time to put democracy to work! Do you prefer the current format of seeing just the top 25 and bottom 10, or would you prefer to see the entire 119 Div IA teams all at once on the same list? You've got until probably next Sunday to vote and the Week 5 results will be displayed based on your input. How do you vote? Just leave a comment here indicated your preference, or whatever other wacky organization you might desire. Of course, as with all good democracys, the lead executive (me) has a veto power if I think your idea is exceptionally dumb.
Sunday, September 24, 2006
Week 4 Top 25
1 | 1.0 | Michigan | 3 | 0.074005 |
2 | 0.996274 | West Virginia | 2 | 0.064348 |
3 | 0.992634 | Louisville | 4 | 0.081626 |
4 | 0.9867 | Missouri | 8 | 0.101728 |
5 | 0.986588 | Ohio State | 6 | 0.094947 |
6 | 0.984058 | Florida | 5 | 0.083376 |
7 | 0.974013 | Boise State | 7 | 0.086546 |
8 | 0.964548 | Auburn | 11 | 0.091543 |
9 | 0.962403 | Virginia Tech | 9 | 0.085813 |
10 | 0.959147 | Texas A&M | 15 | 0.098535 |
11 | 0.959104 | Rutgers | 13 | 0.094236 |
12 | 0.951209 | USC | 1 | -0.04879 |
13 | 0.942248 | Houston | 12 | 0.076061 |
14 | 0.926681 | Iowa | 22 | 0.090146 |
15 | 0.926031 | Wake Forest | 24 | 0.093266 |
16 | 0.916468 | Georgia | 16 | 0.056261 |
17 | 0.897259 | Purdue | 28 | 0.087571 |
18 | 0.879727 | TCU | 14 | 0.015983 |
19 | 0.867844 | Oregon | 19 | 0.025181 |
20 | 0.587998 | LSU | 30 | 0.107203 |
21 | 0.551974 | Nebraska | 32 | 0.1064 |
22 | 0.522018 | Oklahoma | 40 | 0.118459 |
23 | 0.520437 | Texas | 33 | 0.075499 |
24 | 0.512349 | Clemson | 31 | 0.06432 |
25 | 0.50946 | Texas Tech | 39 | 0.105213 |
Week 4 Bottom 10
110 | 0.135591 | Idaho | 96 | -0.072777 |
111 | 0.127145 | Miami (Ohio) | 113 | 0.019702 |
112 | 0.111344 | Florida International | 109 | -0.031131 |
113 | 0.101373 | Colorado | 117 | 0.036946 |
114 | 0.091657 | Rice | 108 | -0.053731 |
115 | 0.08354 | Stanford | 111 | -0.026673 |
116 | 0.062146 | Eastern Michigan | 116 | -0.022804 |
117 | 0.016263 | Florida Atlantic | 115 | -0.070232 |
118 | 0.015897 | Temple | 118 | 0.003662 |
119 | 0.0 | Utah State | 119 | 0.0 |
Sunday, September 17, 2006
"Separation" Saturday
So there were a lot of big matchups this weekend, and some of them turned out to be a lot of fun to watch, while some were as overbilled as OSU at Texas last week. But despite all the marquee games, there wasn't that much of a shakeup in the rankings. Basically, there were three teams who lost a lot of ground - Notre Dame fell to #42 from #2, Nebraska fell to #32 from #4, and LSU fell from #7 to #30. Perhaps the biggest fall though was UConn from #5 to #58, but they were overrated at #5 anyway, and a loss sent them plummeting, so all works out in the end. As for the real winners, basically you've got Michigan. They scooted up to #3 from #11 after trouncing ND. Florida, Ohio State, VT, and 'Bama all picked up a few spots. Give it up for Rutgers too who are 3-0. If they ever lose though, they're going to be in the same 50-spot-drop scenario as Uconn due to SOS. Everyone seemed surprised that Louisville could walk all over Miami, but they were ranked #6 last week where Miami was #49, so that really shouldn't have been all that much of a shock. Not too many close matchups on the docket for next week (at least at a cursory glance), but it is interesting to look at the score dropoffs caused by losses. The lowest-ranked undefeated school (UCLA, 2-0) comes in about 0.785 whereas the highest-ranked one-loss team (LSU, 2-1) comes in around 0.481. Lesson learned? Don't lose. Seems obvious enough, right? And at this point, with only 3 weeks gone, a loss is going to hurt really bad. But taken out of 12 regular-season games, 1 loss isn't going to kill you. This is what happens when you base half of the rankings on winning, but f you wanna be the best, you gotta win.
Week 3 Top 25
1 | 1.000000 | USC | 3 | 0.114735 |
2 | 0.931927 | West Virginia | 1 | -0.068073 |
3 | 0.925994 | Michigan | 11 | 0.086753 |
4 | 0.911008 | Louisville | 6 | 0.043938 |
5 | 0.900682 | Florida | 10 | 0.053805 |
6 | 0.891641 | Ohio State | 16 | 0.079048 |
7 | 0.887467 | Boise State | 8 | 0.037911 |
8 | 0.884972 | Missouri | 9 | 0.036346 |
9 | 0.87659 | Virginia Tech | 15 | 0.053836 |
10 | 0.873574 | Alabama | 18 | 0.064563 |
11 | 0.873004 | Auburn | 13 | 0.042668 |
12 | 0.866187 | Houston | 12 | 0.0276 |
13 | 0.864869 | Rutgers | 21 | 0.058132 |
14 | 0.863744 | TCU | 17 | 0.053384 |
15 | 0.860611 | Texas A&M | 14 | 0.033052 |
16 | 0.860207 | Georgia | 23 | 0.060030 |
17 | 0.852881 | Michigan State | 31 | 0.074401 |
18 | 0.849865 | Wisconsin | 28 | 0.057528 |
19 | 0.842663 | Oregon | 25 | 0.043079 |
20 | 0.839560 | Kansas State | 37 | 0.073161 |
21 | 0.836649 | Arizona State | 29 | 0.048267 |
22 | 0.836535 | Iowa | 30 | 0.053238 |
23 | 0.834225 | South Florida | 32 | 0.057929 |
24 | 0.832765 | Wake Forest | 40 | 0.072986 |
25 | 0.817882 | Boston College | 39 | 0.057638 |
Week 3 Bottom 10
110 | 0.141836 | North Carolina State | 94 | -0.060765 |
111 | 0.110213 | Stanford | 110 | 0.038889 |
112 | 0.108985 | Duke | 109 | 0.033615 |
113 | 0.107443 | Miami (Ohio) | 105 | 0.008677 |
114 | 0.090917 | Mississippi State | 111 | 0.022897 |
115 | 0.086497 | Florida Atlantic | 115 | 0.037022 |
116 | 0.084952 | Eastern Michigan | 108 | 0.008888 |
117 | 0.064427 | Colorado | 113 | 0.001675 |
118 | 0.012235 | Temple | 117 | -0.019096 |
119 | 0.000000 | Utah State | 118 | -0.028438 |
Sunday, September 10, 2006
Week 2 Top 25
1 | 1.000000 | West Virginia | 11 | 0.135981 |
2 | 0.978329 | Notre Dame | 50 | 0.242245 |
3 | 0.886727 | USC | 6 | -0.013472 |
4 | 0.88525 | Nebraska | 23 | 0.08375 |
5 | 0.869368 | Louisville | 25 | 0.072869 |
6 | 0.866304 | LSU | 24 | 0.066969 |
7 | 0.863621 | Connecticut | 7 | -0.034605 |
8 | 0.854851 | Florida | 34 | 0.081954 |
9 | 0.851896 | Missouri | 27 | 0.065165 |
10 | 0.85135 | Boise State | 3 | -0.092406 |
11 | 0.843815 | Houston | 17 | 0.021697 |
12 | 0.839061 | Michigan | 35 | 0.067353 |
13 | 0.833583 | Auburn | 13 | -0.029433 |
14 | 0.822858 | Texas A&M | 53 | 0.08944 |
15 | 0.820801 | Ohio State | 39 | 0.068161 |
16 | 0.819941 | Virginia Tech | 5 | -0.089629 |
17 | 0.817619 | Pittsburgh | 33 | 0.044078 |
18 | 0.813473 | UCLA | 12 | -0.049621 |
19 | 0.813085 | Tennessee | 37 | 0.055909 |
20 | 0.812922 | Alabama | 15 | -0.019427 |
21 | 0.810352 | TCU | 51 | 0.075914 |
22 | 0.810143 | Rutgers | 54 | 0.078721 |
23 | 0.803868 | Indiana | 42 | 0.05479 |
24 | 0.801062 | Oregon | 28 | 0.016366 |
25 | 0.799031 | Georgia | 36 | 0.039978 |
Week 2 Bottom 10
110 | 0.069857 | Mississippi State | 89 | -0.072519 |
111 | 0.062849 | Louisiana Lafayette | 112 | -0.013581 |
112 | 0.061893 | Idaho | 79 | -0.101091 |
113 | 0.056857 | Duke | 118 | 0.053911 |
114 | 0.046359 | Florida Atlantic | 108 | -0.045809 |
115 | 0.044859 | SMU | 110 | -0.040494 |
116 | 0.042427 | Colorado | 119 | 0.042427 |
117 | 0.030484 | Temple | 94 | -0.101085 |
118 | 0.017513 | Utah State | 107 | -0.08114 |
119 | 0.000000 | Kent State | 113 | -0.074666 |
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
In case you were wondering
For all the GT fans, and those who just dislike Notre Dame, I thought you might be interested to know that they've come in at #50 with a score of .736 in the rankings.
Week 1 Top 30
I'm posting the top 30 this week rather than 25 because its week 1 and there will be a lot of changing going on over the next couple weeks before things start to settle out. Also because after 30 there's a bit of a dropoff in scores.
| | | |
1 | 1.000000 | Cinncinati | Big East |
2 | 0.950478 | Minnesota | Big 10 |
3 | 0.943756 | Boise State | WAC |
4 | 0.909766 | Troy | Sun Belt |
5 | 0.909569 | Virginia Tech | ACC |
6 | 0.900200 | USC | Pac 10 |
7 | 0.898226 | Connecticut | Big East |
8 | 0.889077 | Tulsa | CUSA |
9 | 0.882768 | South Carolina | SEC |
10 | 0.879529 | UNLV | MWC |
11 | 0.864019 | West Virginia | Big East |
12 | 0.863094 | UCLA | Pac 10 |
13 | 0.863016 | Auburn | SEC |
14 | 0.847908 | Purdue | Big 10 |
15 | 0.832349 | Alabama | SEC |
16 | 0.822741 | Ball State | MAC |
17 | 0.822118 | Houston | CUSA |
18 | 0.817572 | Oregon State | Pac 10 |
19 | 0.811954 | UCF | CUSA |
20 | 0.811058 | Michigan State | Big 10 |
21 | 0.809894 | Texas | Big XII |
22 | 0.806976 | Mississippi | SEC |
23 | 0.801501 | Nebraska | Big XII |
24 | 0.799336 | LSU | SEC |
25 | 0.796499 | Louisville | Big East |
26 | 0.790414 | Texas Tech | Big XII |
27 | 0.786730 | Missouri | Big XII |
28 | 0.784697 | Oregon | Pac 10 |
29 | 0.783599 | Clemson | ACC |
30 | 0.781162 | Iowa | Big 10 |
Week 1 Bottom 10
I thought I'd post the bottom 10 first because it goes to show how much losing to a Div. I-AA program can hurt you in these rankings. In the case of Arkansas and North Texas, it shows how much getting clobbered with a ton of yards and committing a large number of turnovers can hurt you when playing a top-tier program.
| | | |
110 | 0.085352 | SMU | CUSA |
111 | 0.079267 | Kentucky | SEC |
112 | 0.076431 | Louisiana Lafayette | Sun Belt |
113 | 0.074666 | Kent State | MAC |
114 | 0.074266 | Louisiana Tech | WAC |
115 | 0.073842 | Arkansas | SEC |
116 | 0.065873 | North Texas | Sun Belt |
117 | 0.023276 | New Mexico | MWC |
118 | 0.002945 | Duke | ACC |
119 | 0.000000 | Colorado | Big XII |
Weak weeks
I've decided that to keep things simple (and because I'm lazy) I'm going to apply the same "week" to games that ESPN is doing. Because of the move to a 12-game schedule, many teams now play twice in one week (Saturday/Thursday, Monday/Saturday, etc). I believe I had stated at some point that I woudl designate a week as being Sunday through Saturday with new rankings coming out every Sunday night. Instead, I'm going to follow ESPN's week system and release new rankings following the conclusion of all games in a weekly designation. If you don't like it, take it up with ESPN and the NCAA. In more related news, I'm entering all the weekend's games' data into my software and should have rankings posted for you tonight hopefully. I doubt very much that they'll line up with the other polls this week, but it should be interesting to see what happens.