Chaos Rankings

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

2016 Annual Bowl-Prediction Catastrophe

Update: 12/15/16 - 1:35 pm These numbers have all been re-run using the complete data set which now includes the missing week 6 data I discovered.

Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, NM - December 17, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#49 New Mexico loses to #69 Texas San Antonio by 7.6134
TeamNew Mexico (8-4)Texas San Antonio (6-6)
SOS0.1929190.345626
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.833333 (14.597538)29.916667 (20.679956)
YPG470.25 (181.44032)376.416667 (260.198774)
TCPG1.166667 (1.883189)1.166667 (1.526873)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.583333 (55.823103)35.666667 (46.678679)
YPG455.583333 (735.385305)471.666667 (617.292807)
TFPG1.5 (0.578757)1.416667 (0.979274)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.95%90.83%
Defense86.75%86.42%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.75 (30.638108)32.25 (38.251529)


Las Vegas Bowl Presented by Geico Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 17, 2016 - 3:30 PM
#20 Houston beats #16 San Diego State by 18.4121
TeamHouston (9-3)San Diego State (10-3)
SOS0.4894080.148312
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG38 (37.195008)35.307692 (10.473109)
YPG459.166667 (449.43968)419.076923 (124.308273)
TCPG1.75 (1.787072)1.153846 (1.965434)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.166667 (31.826901)24.615385 (41.929255)
YPG404.416667 (412.983829)348.307692 (593.298964)
TFPG1.416667 (1.386656)1.230769 (0.365076)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense94.58%96.29%
Defense88.08%80.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.307692 (39.562132)33.237179 (21.150005)


Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, AL - December 17, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#19 Appalachian State beats #24 Toledo by 8.0736
TeamAppalachian State (9-3)Toledo (9-3)
SOS0.4619980.365855
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.083333 (26.872884)38.833333 (28.414738)
YPG431.083333 (398.319276)529.75 (387.623373)
TCPG1.083333 (1.165671)1.166667 (1.479672)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.333333 (31.562784)38.833333 (49.251928)
YPG403.166667 (433.808946)475.333333 (602.860513)
TFPG1.333333 (1.231995)1.25 (0.914638)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.1%83.78%
Defense83.15%93.37%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.958333 (38.062406)34.083333 (29.988761)


Autonation Cure Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 17, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#64 UCF beats #57 Arkansas State by 18.4556
TeamUCF (6-6)Arkansas State (7-5)
SOS0.564340.192951
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.083333 (33.954457)27 (10.419354)
YPG361.833333 (408.394047)391.5 (151.080633)
TCPG1.833333 (1.59742)1.333333 (2.152131)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.416667 (25.63133)24.166667 (39.007368)
YPG398.916667 (347.58407)366.666667 (591.835933)
TFPG1.25 (1.41085)1.5 (0.578853)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.02%78.82%
Defense84.28%75.32%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.125 (36.480913)28.208333 (18.025342)


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans, LA - December 17, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#67 Southern Mississippi beats #74 Louisiana Lafayette by 0.4895
TeamSouthern Mississippi (6-6)Louisiana Lafayette (6-6)
SOS0.3314620.327726
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.25 (22.042223)23.833333 (15.621606)
YPG471.666667 (312.679153)365.166667 (239.349222)
TCPG2.5 (3.34269)1.333333 (1.792731)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.5 (48.803274)32.25 (43.361673)
YPG465.416667 (622.297455)400.833333 (538.939657)
TFPG1.083333 (0.718168)1.833333 (1.201662)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.57%74.59%
Defense89.63%91.95%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.75 (32.701948)30.166667 (32.21244)


Miami Beach Bowl
Miami, FL - December 19, 2016 - 2:30 PM
#71 Central Michigan loses to #28 Tulsa by 8.2972
TeamCentral Michigan (6-6)Tulsa (9-3)
SOS0.4588180.434283
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.666667 (25.387929)41.416667 (35.973109)
YPG395.083333 (362.54269)521.666667 (453.10193)
TCPG1.75 (1.894137)1.75 (1.98001)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.333333 (31.749344)22.75 (25.740124)
YPG396.083333 (428.706341)359 (406.184806)
TFPG1.333333 (1.223515)1.333333 (1.158088)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.03%90.73%
Defense84.64%72.42%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.208333 (25.564026)35.375 (33.861226)


Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, FL - December 20, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#35 Memphis beats #11 Western Kentucky by 1.8472
TeamMemphis (8-4)Western Kentucky (10-3)
SOS0.5244550.42758
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.5 (41.431945)45.076923 (38.547982)
YPG461.5 (484.071965)517.384615 (442.446628)
TCPG1.5 (1.426635)1.384615 (1.585163)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.166667 (33.446665)29.923077 (34.257135)
YPG463.666667 (440.98873)386.846154 (442.876951)
TFPG1.75 (1.835593)1.461538 (1.249849)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.82%99.57%
Defense86.68%88.4%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.711538 (37.84454)40.121795 (35.997323)


San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 21, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#34 BYU loses to #56 Wyoming by 27.2353
TeamBYU (8-4)Wyoming (8-5)
SOS0.3562710.710469
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30 (21.37626)37.076923 (52.684009)
YPG406.333333 (289.529566)439.230769 (624.119691)
TCPG1.416667 (1.823899)1.692308 (0.979951)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31 (39.911198)28.923077 (16.748255)
YPG413.583333 (532.471171)388.769231 (225.121488)
TFPG1.333333 (0.950056)1.461538 (2.076756)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.38%96.47%
Defense85.66%85.02%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.461538 (19.062257)34.038462 (46.297603)


Famous Idaho Potato Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, ID - December 22, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#51 Idaho loses to #54 Colorado State by 12.5261
TeamIdaho (8-4)Colorado State (7-5)
SOS0.373560.643235
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.25 (21.10614)34.083333 (43.847186)
YPG379.916667 (283.84334)451 (580.19797)
TCPG1.416667 (1.774913)1 (0.71353)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.916667 (28.711833)37 (26.40061)
YPG339.25 (425.03954)444.416667 (317.104624)
TFPG1.25 (0.9339)1 (1.28647)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.98%86.37%
Defense77.2%95.15%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.625 (23.753375)28.5 (36.27951)


Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, Bahamas - December 23, 2016 - 1:00 PM
#58 Eastern Michigan beats #25 Old Dominion by 22.3464
TeamEastern Michigan (7-5)Old Dominion (9-3)
SOS0.4696170.14466
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.416667 (28.568368)36 (10.41552)
YPG453.916667 (426.333967)436.916667 (126.40873)
TCPG1.833333 (1.944738)0.75 (1.28301)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.333333 (30.055037)33.083333 (56.594997)
YPG427 (452.947082)440.25 (753.12687)
TFPG1.166667 (1.095773)1.583333 (0.45809)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense76.58%94.17%
Defense75.83%85.88%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.75 (42.581682)32.166667 (20.235278)


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX - December 23, 2016 - 4:30 PM
#46 Louisiana Tech loses to #39 Navy by 17.2576
TeamLouisiana Tech (8-5)Navy (9-4)
SOS0.2964140.636463
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG44 (26.084432)37.384615 (47.587849)
YPG516.076923 (305.94485)436.692308 (555.876992)
TCPG1.230769 (1.731904)1.153846 (0.838932)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.230769 (34.09686)29 (21.085146)
YPG361 (507.989092)388.692308 (282.608071)
TFPG1.615385 (0.957645)2 (2.545852)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.44%97.84%
Defense76.71%85.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score36.5 (23.584789)30.807692 (40.842354)


Dollar General Knick-Knacks Bowl
Mobile, AL - December 23, 2016 - 8:00 PM
#53 Ohio loses to #22 Troy by 5.2502
TeamOhio (8-5)Troy (9-3)
SOS0.213190.291002
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.538462 (11.315469)34.166667 (19.885137)
YPG392.615385 (167.403348)438.583333 (255.257254)
TCPG1.538462 (2.420954)1.5 (2.126994)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.307692 (41.398311)27.833333 (39.467555)
YPG366.923077 (577.397492)371.916667 (527.376346)
TFPG1.230769 (0.524775)0.916667 (0.533504)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.25%89.03%
Defense81.94%85.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.185897 (25.391512)30.237179 (30.641724)


Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu, HI - December 24, 2016 - 8:00 PM
#94 Hawaii beats #47 Middle Tennessee by 10.3956
TeamHawaii (6-7)Middle Tennessee (8-4)
SOS0.3736420.134853
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.461538 (19.774284)40.083333 (10.810716)
YPG382.923077 (286.152289)515.666667 (139.078394)
TCPG2.076923 (2.601795)1.5 (2.595441)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.153846 (37.774206)28.666667 (49.601761)
YPG407.692308 (510.722677)409.083333 (707.834437)
TFPG1.384615 (1.034701)1.416667 (0.382084)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense78.98%88.84%
Defense84.53%80.09%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.564103 (34.688023)35.11859 (24.292461)


St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL - December 26, 2016 - 11:00 AM
#70 Miami (OH) loses to #78 Mississippi State by 35.8037
TeamMiami (OH) (6-6)Mississippi State (5-7)
SOS0.2019150.765566
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.416667 (9.456353)31.5 (48.230658)
YPG361.416667 (145.950893)449 (687.478268)
TCPG1.5 (2.394255)1.333333 (0.625157)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.333333 (46.820987)29.833333 (13.987895)
YPG408.916667 (652.700516)381.75 (178.990359)
TFPG1.5 (0.605745)1.083333 (1.658726)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.05%80.18%
Defense81.98%89.31%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.625 (11.722124)30.416667 (47.525822)


Quick Lane Motor City Bowl
Detroit, MI - December 26, 2016 - 2:30 PM
#77 Maryland beats #75 Boston College by 13.3319
TeamMaryland (6-6)Boston College (6-6)
SOS0.6647210.52333
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.416667 (33.789984)19.083333 (19.973762)
YPG379.5 (504.523239)287.666667 (301.089193)
TCPG1.25 (0.838198)1.5 (1.43001)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.666667 (21.234337)35.75 (34.081905)
YPG405.416667 (271.855389)463.25 (441.634755)
TFPG1.333333 (1.772589)1.333333 (1.395547)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense76.54%75.82%
Defense89.27%88.2%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.583333 (33.935945)25.375 (20.604049)


Camping World Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA - December 26, 2016 - 5:00 PM
#61 NC State beats #66 Vanderbilt by 1.863
TeamNC State (6-6)Vanderbilt (6-6)
SOS0.782970.795527
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.833333 (40.45345)23.5 (37.389769)
YPG419.75 (657.303315)359.166667 (571.453562)
TCPG1.583333 (0.687262)1 (0.408946)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.333333 (14.468667)37 (15.131002)
YPG414.083333 (179.737012)475.333333 (194.385665)
TFPG1.666667 (2.6099)1.5 (2.386581)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense70.34%74.78%
Defense92%88.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31.416667 (27.792226)28.416667 (25.929218)


Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX - December 27, 2016 - 12:00 PM
#52 Army loses to #90 North Texas by 14.6763
TeamArmy (7-5)North Texas (5-7)
SOS0.067520.39878
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.25 (3.94992)24.25 (19.34083)
YPG404.25 (54.58992)336.166667 (268.113087)
TCPG1.916667 (3.574507)1.583333 (1.903863)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.333333 (52.840533)32.333333 (38.878893)
YPG384.166667 (716.455467)445.416667 (535.586817)
TFPG1.583333 (0.213813)1.5 (1.19634)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.69%82.44%
Defense84.29%82.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.791667 (21.414407)26.291667 (36.090682)


Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grumman USNA Bowl
Annapolis, MD - December 27, 2016 - 3:30 PM
#10 Temple beats #73 Wake Forest by 4.127
TeamTemple (10-3)Wake Forest (6-6)
SOS0.456920.572964
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.846154 (30.016129)19.25 (22.059114)
YPG416.461538 (380.579212)306.75 (351.513414)
TCPG1.307692 (1.420363)1.416667 (1.209935)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.461538 (28.741465)34 (29.038448)
YPG354.615385 (385.169046)469 (400.559768)
TFPG1.076923 (0.984135)1.666667 (1.90988)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.14%71.72%
Defense85.28%82.85%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.423077 (29.527289)22.855769 (25.400289)


National Funding Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 27, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#42 Minnesota loses to #33 Washington State by 11.8299
TeamMinnesota (8-4)Washington State (8-4)
SOS0.5121830.655207
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.333333 (31.072435)40.333333 (52.853365)
YPG363.75 (372.613133)497.583333 (652.040166)
TCPG1.333333 (1.300845)1.333333 (0.919448)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.666667 (27.968175)37.833333 (26.089337)
YPG393.583333 (383.993282)456.25 (314.623613)
TFPG1.416667 (1.451185)1 (1.310414)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense95.3%92.64%
Defense83.24%94.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.083333 (28.580886)34.5 (40.41077)


Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Phoeniz, AZ - December 27, 2016 - 10:15 PM
#17 Boise State beats #63 Baylor by 13.0235
TeamBoise State (10-2)Baylor (6-6)
SOS0.6230490.434153
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.583333 (44.340321)34.916667 (30.318351)
YPG479.833333 (597.919357)523.333333 (454.413473)
TCPG1.25 (0.942378)2.166667 (2.452004)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.333333 (22.114459)30.166667 (34.139436)
YPG396.416667 (298.859318)390.583333 (442.020815)
TFPG1.666667 (2.07683)0.916667 (0.795947)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.75%76.25%
Defense84.57%88.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.875 (39.239878)32.125 (26.216405)


New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, NY - December 28, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#44 Pittsburgh beats #62 Northwestern by 9.2354
TeamPittsburgh (8-4)Northwestern (6-6)
SOS0.721010.777447
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG42.333333 (61.045513)25.583333 (39.779372)
YPG447.5 (645.30395)392.916667 (610.943768)
TCPG1.166667 (0.650977)1.166667 (0.51929)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.666667 (17.669367)33.416667 (14.873959)
YPG461 (257.22878)452.5 (201.410465)
TFPG2 (2.88404)1.583333 (2.461916)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense108.11%74.41%
Defense78.5%84.4%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.875 (37.959736)28.625 (28.724369)


Russell Athletic Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 28, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#14 West Virginia loses to #30 Miami by 5.0215
TeamWest Virginia (10-2)Miami (8-4)
SOS0.4837420.550624
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.583333 (31.523854)34.583333 (38.084827)
YPG506.916667 (490.433764)431.166667 (474.821429)
TCPG1.666667 (1.72086)0.833333 (0.74896)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.75 (33.814899)33.75 (30.33288)
YPG387.333333 (399.927864)444.75 (399.719952)
TFPG1.333333 (1.289979)1.416667 (1.560101)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense73.46%91.67%
Defense96.63%86.73%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.166667 (30.928367)33.666667 (35.949863)


Foster Farms SANS-Francisco Bowl
Santa Clara, CA - December 28, 2016 - 8:30 PM
#68 Indiana beats #41 Utah by 8.9654
TeamIndiana (6-6)Utah (8-4)
SOS0.723310.545462
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.916667 (37.491568)30.166667 (32.909541)
YPG433.083333 (626.507012)427.416667 (466.2791)
TCPG2.166667 (1.19899)1.75 (1.590883)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.5 (16.87809)33.25 (30.226777)
YPG415.583333 (229.975505)411.583333 (374.16053)
TFPG1.333333 (1.928827)1.416667 (1.545476)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense68.39%80.66%
Defense83.88%92.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.583333 (33.859173)30.333333 (24.893815)


Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Houston, TX - December 28, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#36 Texas A&M beats #37 Kansas State by 15.815
TeamTexas A&M (8-4)Kansas State (8-4)
SOS0.6969450.471811
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.416667 (49.366938)32.166667 (30.353174)
YPG468.083333 (652.456678)386.75 (364.945809)
TCPG1.583333 (0.959674)1 (1.056378)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.583333 (17.930754)28.916667 (30.546931)
YPG351.083333 (212.795119)393.916667 (416.124901)
TFPG1.166667 (1.626205)1.25 (1.179528)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.47%95.05%
Defense96.3%83.89%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.166667 (39.956934)30.875 (24.141964)


Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, AL - December 29, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#15 South Florida beats #76 South Carolina by 4.1914
TeamSouth Florida (10-2)South Carolina (6-6)
SOS0.4376270.581774
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.583333 (38.146487)19.25 (22.398299)
YPG515.083333 (450.828748)336.416667 (391.43694)
TCPG1.25 (1.405933)1.25 (1.045565)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.416667 (33.086278)30.75 (25.720899)
YPG357.25 (401.815509)379.916667 (317.782056)
TFPG1.416667 (1.239943)1.583333 (1.842284)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense96.7%65.4%
Defense94.11%92.5%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.166667 (31.933693)24.333333 (27.742289)


Belk Queen City Bowl
Charlotte, NC - December 29, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#59 Arkansas beats #31 Virginia Tech by 10.1145
TeamArkansas (7-5)Virginia Tech (9-4)
SOS0.7415220.535927
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.833333 (45.72719)35 (37.51489)
YPG437.916667 (649.449685)448.230769 (480.437943)
TCPG1.75 (0.904673)1.846154 (1.7135)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.75 (13.828573)27.846154 (25.845296)
YPG364.166667 (188.258143)356.230769 (330.634164)
TFPG1.166667 (1.730218)1.538462 (1.649006)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.47%89.24%
Defense83.95%89.34%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.339744 (35.786243)30.875 (25.671732)


Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX - December 29, 2016 - 9:00 PM
#23 Oklahoma State loses to #12 Colorado by 15.8752
TeamOklahoma State (9-3)Colorado (10-3)
SOS0.5244740.793745
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG38.666667 (40.559323)32.846154 (52.142941)
YPG492.083333 (516.169828)446.307692 (708.508998)
TCPG1.166667 (1.109561)1.461538 (0.602899)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.916667 (32.256514)29.307692 (12.089716)
YPG403.5 (383.749482)382.923077 (157.959598)
TFPG1.5 (1.573422)1.076923 (1.709605)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense89.8%84.11%
Defense96.06%87.47%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.987179 (26.324519)33.38141 (42.199727)


Autozone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN - December 30, 2016 - 12:00 PM
#55 Georgia beats #65 TCU by 1.2266
TeamGeorgia (7-5)TCU (6-6)
SOS0.6691290.547178
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24 (32.118192)31.666667 (34.654607)
YPG382.416667 (511.772164)475 (519.8191)
TCPG1.5 (0.992613)1.5 (1.358466)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG37.166667 (24.594744)32.666667 (29.584371)
YPG486 (321.606612)431.416667 (390.709916)
TFPG1.333333 (1.784344)1.333333 (1.459141)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense71.72%76.19%
Defense87.4%86.54%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.333333 (30.851281)34.416667 (29.624676)


Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX - December 30, 2016 - 2:00 PM
#32 Stanford beats #45 North Carolina by 16.9183
TeamStanford (9-3)North Carolina (8-4)
SOS0.7550510.403481
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.416667 (39.891861)33.083333 (26.696993)
YPG374.083333 (564.90399)442.416667 (357.013438)
TCPG1.5 (0.734847)1.083333 (1.292458)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.75 (16.04416)30.75 (36.685919)
YPG421.5 (206.492007)400.666667 (478.010559)
TFPG1.25 (1.887628)1.416667 (1.143196)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.71%85.46%
Defense88.8%87.71%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.583333 (38.28889)32.916667 (21.370576)


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN - December 30, 2016 - 3:30 PM
#29 Nebraska loses to #48 Tennessee by 24.9612
TeamNebraska (9-3)Tennessee (8-4)
SOS0.6923170.92163
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.75 (37.03896)36.25 (66.818175)
YPG386.083333 (534.58411)437.25 (805.965435)
TCPG1.083333 (0.666647)2.083333 (0.326542)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.25 (24.153116)25.583333 (4.009932)
YPG470.5 (289.529703)377.166667 (59.117103)
TFPG1.166667 (1.615406)1.25 (2.304075)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense79.18%94.75%
Defense95.34%77.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.166667 (20.524446)37.75 (45.485645)


Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Tucson, AZ - December 30, 2016 - 5:30 PM
#72 South Alabama loses to #27 Air Force by 6.4517
TeamSouth Alabama (6-6)Air Force (9-3)
SOS0.1708850.342827
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.75 (8.800578)34.333333 (23.540787)
YPG394.583333 (134.856746)451.5 (309.572781)
TCPG1.583333 (2.625531)1.416667 (1.86199)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.916667 (41.317564)32.833333 (43.15436)
YPG342.166667 (567.391032)430.5 (565.825953)
TFPG1.083333 (0.370251)1.416667 (0.971343)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.58%86.91%
Defense83.22%87.16%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.291667 (25.977469)29.625 (32.429176)


Capital One Orange Bowl
Miami, FL - December 30, 2016 - 8:00 PM
#6 Michigan beats #18 Florida State by 4.0509
TeamMichigan (10-2)Florida State (9-3)
SOS0.8665510.887343
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG41 (71.057182)35.25 (62.557682)
YPG439.333333 (761.409479)474.333333 (841.792726)
TCPG0.916667 (0.244657)1.5 (0.337971)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.333333 (8.095906)34.166667 (7.698228)
YPG393.666667 (105.068846)437.333333 (98.537323)
TFPG1.083333 (1.877527)1.083333 (1.922577)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense106.66%84.93%
Defense88.06%89.29%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.583333 (39.377705)32.791667 (35.326794)


Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 31, 2016 - 11:00 AM
#38 LSU beats #13 Louisville by 7.7258
TeamLSU (7-4)Louisville (9-3)
SOS0.9245420.622489
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.272727 (52.278648)45.333333 (56.439003)
YPG425.727273 (787.205488)558.75 (695.631458)
TCPG1.454545 (0.219514)2.583333 (1.950474)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.727273 (5.240901)32.916667 (24.852808)
YPG445.272727 (67.198779)426.416667 (321.953965)
TFPG1.636364 (3.025774)1.25 (1.556223)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense75.9%92.72%
Defense89.13%88.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.594697 (38.565728)40.030303 (30.839952)


Taxslayer Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL - December 31, 2016 - 11:00 AM
#50 Georgia Tech loses to #60 Kentucky by 9.5173
TeamGeorgia Tech (8-4)Kentucky (7-5)
SOS0.6653230.746894
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.833333 (37.036314)31 (46.307428)
YPG388.583333 (517.066858)428.25 (639.714711)
TCPG1.25 (0.836693)2.25 (1.138977)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36.833333 (24.654539)29.416667 (14.89107)
YPG468.5 (313.592349)383.083333 (193.92138)
TFPG1.25 (1.663308)1.25 (1.867235)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.86%82.73%
Defense89.85%87.76%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.625 (25.963692)33.916667 (35.480984)


Chick-Fil-A (SEMI) Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA - December 31, 2016 - 3:00 PM
#4 Washington loses to #1 Alabama by 20.7591
TeamWashington (12-1)Alabama (13-0)
SOS0.5368460.86379
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG44.461538 (47.737998)40.538462 (70.033435)
YPG477.153846 (512.316267)471.307692 (814.221743)
TCPG0.923077 (0.855054)1.461538 (0.398152)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.846154 (27.646731)30.923077 (8.424065)
YPG390.384615 (361.616392)396.538462 (108.025008)
TFPG1.846154 (1.982201)1.461538 (2.524925)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense106.49%98.3%
Defense87.38%89.12%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.692308 (28.081031)35.192308 (48.840083)


Playstation (SEMI) Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ - December 31, 2016 - 7:00 PM
#3 Ohio State beats #5 Clemson by 11.1642
TeamOhio State (11-1)Clemson (12-1)
SOS0.9889410.861552
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG42.666667 (84.389632)40.153846 (69.189253)
YPG479.5 (948.394419)505.692308 (871.360438)
TCPG0.75 (0.016589)1.846154 (0.511193)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35 (0.77413)28.538462 (7.902186)
YPG440.75 (9.748509)415.384615 (115.018338)
TFPG1.166667 (2.307529)1.461538 (2.518383)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense101.69%90.75%
Defense90.75%78.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score35.602564 (46.145909)37.576923 (34.981691)


Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX - January 2, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#2 Western Michigan loses to #9 Wisconsin by 39.6096
TeamWestern Michigan (13-0)Wisconsin (10-3)
SOS0.1921280.916908
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.538462 (16.729915)28.692308 (52.616413)
YPG495.923077 (190.561418)383.692308 (703.621093)
TCPG0.538462 (0.870016)1.230769 (0.204534)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.461538 (47.602304)25.692308 (4.26965)
YPG368.692308 (595.712384)325.076923 (54.022583)
TFPG1.153846 (0.443372)1.076923 (1.974879)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense100.33%85.46%
Defense91.32%90.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.615385 (10.499783)29.076923 (50.109358)


Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 2, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#40 Florida beats #43 Iowa by 14.5106
TeamFlorida (8-4)Iowa (8-4)
SOS0.8894720.588356
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.416667 (41.656939)26.75 (31.477046)
YPG345.083333 (613.883925)333.25 (392.139274)
TCPG1.666667 (0.368427)0.75 (0.617466)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.083333 (7.092213)31.5 (25.933572)
YPG432.5 (95.60672)402.166667 (331.098991)
TFPG1.25 (2.22368)1.25 (1.47089)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.55%91.74%
Defense84.78%89.52%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.458333 (33.795255)29.416667 (19.28463)


Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwest Mutual
Pasadena, CA - January 2, 2017 - 5:00 PM
#21 USC loses to #7 Penn State by 5.4373
TeamUSC (9-3)Penn State (11-2)
SOS0.8914410.913181
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.916667 (58.686533)36.692308 (67.013436)
YPG468.916667 (836.023085)430.076923 (785.476149)
TCPG1.583333 (0.34377)1.307692 (0.227065)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.25 (7.436292)28.153846 (4.888578)
YPG464.25 (100.797032)392.692308 (68.186307)
TFPG1.416667 (2.52575)1.769231 (3.231256)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.23%97.5%
Defense84.31%81.94%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score30.535256 (31.787555)35.471154 (37.224864)


Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA - January 2, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#26 Auburn loses to #8 Oklahoma by 4.9721
TeamAuburn (8-4)Oklahoma (10-2)
SOS0.8759530.793898
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.25 (56.498969)44.666667 (70.921555)
YPG449.25 (787.043771)557.333333 (884.931637)
TCPG1.083333 (0.268769)1.416667 (0.583956)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.916667 (6.925958)27.666667 (11.404311)
YPG380.166667 (94.317069)367.166667 (151.347569)
TFPG1.583333 (2.773851)1.583333 (2.51401)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.04%91.59%
Defense83.92%86.12%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.958333 (33.95164)36.291667 (38.923756)


CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T (FINAL) CFP Championship Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 9, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#1 Alabama loses to #3 Ohio State by 11.0031
TeamAlabama (13-0)Ohio State (11-1)
SOS0.863790.988941
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG40.538462 (70.033435)42.666667 (84.389632)
YPG471.307692 (814.221743)479.5 (948.394419)
TCPG1.461538 (0.398152)0.75 (0.016589)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.923077 (8.424065)35 (0.77413)
YPG396.538462 (108.025008)440.75 (9.748509)
TFPG1.461538 (2.524925)1.166667 (2.307529)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense98.3%101.69%
Defense89.12%90.75%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score37.769231 (35.403783)36.794872 (46.406848)


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