Chaos Rankings

Sunday, September 04, 2011

A Couple Reminders

Chaos Rankings follows the ESPN definition of "weeks" with regards to which week a game is played during. Normally this means Sunday-Saturday, but since Labor Day weekend is always the big opening weekend, Week 1 usually runs Thursday-Monday. As such, Week 1 Chaos Rankings will be posted following the conclusion of the Miami vs Maryland game tomorrow. Also, don't forget that the first two weeks have some stabilization built in that is based on the preseason rankings (which are really just last season's final rankings). As I've said before plugging in last year's final rankings is a better indicator of future performance than typical preseason rankings. And I think it's important during the first 2 weeks to limit how much teams can move up and down. Otherwise you end up with an awful team like Washington State near the top of the rankings for having throttled a I-AA team. Sure, plenty of teams that probably belong in the top also throttled their share of cupcakes, but that's why we scale the first two weeks 66.666% and 33.333% respectively against the "preseason" numbers. After 3 weeks, most teams start playing legitimate opponents and the data becomes more representative of true performance, so we drop all of the stabilization stuff.


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