Chaos Rankings

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Week 8 Top 24

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Alabama (8-0)10.000000
20.964599Florida (7-0)20.01677
30.961291Cinncinati (7-0)40.036696
40.960123Texas (7-0)30.033932
50.953758Boise State (7-0)60.052059
60.93141TCU (7-0)70.03788
70.919512Iowa (8-0)50.015529
80.892558Penn State (7-1)80.049485
90.853227Pittsburgh (7-1)110.054633
100.841295Oregon (6-1)120.042828
110.823183USC (6-1)90.018729
120.820874Georgia Tech (7-1)140.04502
130.813959Central Michigan (7-1)150.04125
140.813013Oklahoma State (6-1)170.052599
150.80324Houston (6-1)180.047313
160.796617LSU (6-1)210.056514
170.779703Ohio State (6-2)260.066755
180.774891West Virginia (6-1)230.035456
190.75774Utah (6-1)250.03012
200.739689Virginia Tech (5-2)240.002537
210.727912BYU (6-2)10-0.071948
220.727876South Carolina (6-2)310.047036
230.715937Navy (6-2)300.034393
240.715571California (5-2)340.050056

Week 8 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.228384Akron (1-6)110-0.004416
1120.222851North Texas (1-6)111-0.004426
1130.218025Illinois (1-6)112-6.05E-4
1140.175944Washington State (1-6)1140.007735
1150.145235Ball State (1-7)1180.108322
1160.112271Eastern Michigan (0-7)1150.026485
1170.061299New Mexico (0-7)1160.00766
1180.058163Miami (Ohio) (0-8)1190.044218
1190.024868Western Kentucky (0-7)117-0.012626
1200.000000Rice (0-8)1200.000000

Thanks Clemson!

Chaos Wife and I are down in Charlottesville still basking in the glow of the first Georgia Tech victory here since 1990. In a rain-soaked, run-heavy mess of a game, the Jackets prevailed 34-9 to take a commanding lead of the Coastal division. Anyway, we're having lunch with my cousin before heading home. Rankings will up later this evening after we get back home. Shouldn't be too much shakeup at the top other than Miami dropping after their OT loss to Clemson.

Monday, October 19, 2009

In Good Company

I generally try to refrain from gushing too much about my alma mater, but I can't stress enough how important Saturday's win over Virginia Tech was for both this season and for the program in Paul Johnson's second year with the Yellow Jackets. The win makes GT bowl eligible and keeps us in position for a shot at the Coastal Division title if we win out.

Current bowl-eligible teams:
Georgia Tech (ACC)
Texas (Big 12)
Pittsburgh (Big East)
Cincinnati (Big East)
Iowa (Big T{elev}en)
Penn State (Big T{elev}en)
Central Michigan (MAC)
TCU (Moutain West)
BYU (Mountain West)
Florida (SEC)
Alabama (SEC)
Boise State (WAC)
Idaho (WAC)

That's a pretty impressive list of teams to be a part of. Let's make another one. This time, let's list each team that is currently averaging 200+ yards on the ground

Nevada, 292.83
Georgia Tech, 281.57
Fresno State, 279.67
Air Force, 279.29
Navy, 279.00
Florida, 259.83
Auburn, 247.29
Michigan, 235.00
Alabama, 229.29
UAB, 229.00
TCU, 225.00
Army, 222.57
Mississippi State, 219.00
Iowa State, 213.86
Virginia Tech, 203.71
Oregon, 202.67
Stanford, 201.14
California, 200.50

Again, a pretty substantial list of power football teams. Of that group, in terms of total rushing yards, no one is within 200 of Georgia Tech, except for Navy and Air Force. All three programs run option-based ground games. Coincidence? I think not. And Georgia Tech has a higher yards-per-carry average than either team, and this is only the second year we've been running this style of offense. The only other school to average 280+ yards on the ground? Nevada, and I think it's fair to say that Georgia Tech has played a tougher schedule to date. The NCAA says their SOS ranks 106 where GT is 29.

That's all I have to say on the topic. Anything more would ruin any shred of impartiality I still have. Plus karma's a bitch, and there's that pesky Charlottesville Curse (haven't won at UVA since 1990). So any more gloating on my part is probably a sure-fire way to doom the Jackets this weekend. At any rate, I thought they put together a solid game against the Hokies and was impressed by the current company they're keeping. Still a long season to get through, but I think the toughest opponents are behind us.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Week 7 Top 24

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Alabama (7-0)10.000000
20.947828Florida (6-0)2-0.008247
30.926191Texas (6-0)40.023605
40.924594Cinncinati (6-0)30.017303
50.903982Iowa (7-0)60.028117
60.901699Boise State (6-0)50.010954
70.89353TCU (6-0)90.052532
80.843072Penn State (6-1)140.057796
90.804454USC (5-1)150.026562
100.799861BYU (6-1)190.032767
110.798594Pittsburgh (6-1)180.030298
120.798467Oregon (5-1)12-0.007475
130.782153Kansas (5-1)7-0.084863
140.775854Georgia Tech (6-1)230.039254
150.772708Central Michigan (6-1)200.025703
160.7674South Florida (5-1)8-0.086109
170.760413Oklahoma State (5-1)290.054677
180.755927Houston (5-1)300.052308
190.754085Idaho (6-1)240.027915
200.741691Miami (5-1)330.048408
210.740103LSU (5-1)21-0.006614
220.739626Texas Tech (5-2)360.06327
230.739435West Virginia (5-1)350.056418
240.737151Virginia Tech (5-2)10-0.076333

Week 7 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.227277North Texas (1-5)108-0.024245
1120.218631Illinois (1-5)111-0.02056
1130.20338San Jose State (1-5)112-0.024767
1140.168208Washington State (1-5)1140.025281
1150.085786Eastern Michigan (0-6)115-0.010921
1160.053638New Mexico (0-6)1180.033569
1170.037494Western Kentucky (0-6)116-0.004501
1180.036912Ball State (0-7)1170.004808
1190.013945Miami (Ohio) (0-7)119-0.005482
1200.000000Rice (0-7)1200.000000

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Week 6 Top 24

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000Alabama (6-0)10.000000
20.956076Florida (5-0)2-0.015006
30.90729Cinncinati (5-0)3-0.043556
40.902585Texas (5-0)7-0.011393
50.890744Boise State (5-0)4-0.050112
60.875864Iowa (6-0)100.001091
70.867017Kansas (5-0)8-0.029286
80.85351South Florida (5-0)6-0.065416
90.840997TCU (5-0)12-0.022999
100.813485Virginia Tech (5-1)190.050039
110.807104Ohio State (5-1)150.006409
120.805942Oregon (5-1)160.030703
130.794796Nebraska (4-1)170.022728
140.785276Penn State (5-1)180.013916
150.777891USC (4-1)14-0.047509
160.774398Wisconsin (5-1)9-0.101247
170.772231Auburn (5-1)5-0.157855
180.768295Pittsburgh (5-1)230.024874
190.767093BYU (5-1)240.025621
200.747004Central Michigan (5-1)270.0248
210.746717LSU (5-1)11-0.12194
220.738471South Carolina (5-1)21-0.009296
230.7366Georgia Tech (5-1)280.016797
240.72617Idaho (5-1)300.017501

Week 6 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.239192Illinois (1-4)107-0.031087
1120.228148San Jose State (1-4)1100.010066
1130.16438Florida Atlantic (0-4)1130.049094
1140.142926Washington State (1-5)1120.004189
1150.096708Eastern Michigan (0-5)114-0.004562
1160.041995Western Kentucky (0-5)1170.021972
1170.032104Ball State (0-6)1160.011881
1180.020068New Mexico (0-6)1190.009311
1190.019427Miami (Ohio) (0-6)1180.004166
1200.0Rice (0-6)1200.0

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Week 5 Top 30

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.0Alabama (5-0)20.031132
20.971082Florida (4-0)1-0.028917
30.950847Cinncinati (5-0)50.019407
40.940857Boise State (5-0)30.008499
50.930086Auburn (5-0)70.022635
60.918926South Florida (5-0)80.018993
70.913979Texas (4-0)4-0.018105
80.896303Kansas (4-0)6-0.026617
90.875645Wisconsin (5-0)150.025971
100.874773Iowa (5-0)100.008048
110.868657LSU (5-0)130.015566
120.863997TCU (4-0)170.041942
130.834351Missouri (4-0)12-0.026113
140.8254USC (4-1)200.067879
150.800694Ohio State (4-1)220.061545
160.775238Oregon (4-1)320.076737
170.772068Nebraska (3-1)18-0.012712
180.77136Penn State (4-1)260.050291
190.763445Virginia Tech (4-1)240.030365
200.758383Stanford (4-1)290.046646
210.747767South Carolina (4-1)250.025627
220.744299Tulsa (4-1)350.049729
230.74342Pittsburgh (4-1)380.055176
240.741471BYU (4-1)340.044616
250.736183UCLA (3-1)9-0.132226
260.735171Notre Dame (4-1)360.044548
270.722203Central Michigan (4-1)390.036334
280.719802Georgia Tech (4-1)400.040975
290.7174Wake Forest (4-1)440.052387
300.708669Idaho (4-1)410.035018

Week 5 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.187365Memphis (1-4)106-0.064706
1120.138737Washington State (1-4)109-0.091123
1130.115285Florida Atlantic (0-4)112-0.020239
1140.10127Eastern Michigan (0-4)111-0.051885
1150.095383Florida International (0-4)114-0.027637
1160.020222Ball State (0-5)117-0.020577
1170.020023Western Kentucky (0-4)1200.020023
1180.015261Miami (Ohio) (0-5)116-0.031839
1190.010757New Mexico (0-5)119-0.022484
1200.0Rice (0-5)118-0.033368

Thursday, October 01, 2009

Caught Up In The Hurricane (Love)

Or, Why Computers Are Smarter Than Humans

Last week, 4 of the AP Top 10 (including 3 of the Top 6) teams lost to "lesser" competition. Ole Miss lost at South Carolina. Penn State lost at home to Iowa. Cal got embarrassed in Autzen by Oregon's throwback unis. And Miami got their faces shoved in the muddy wet ground on a rainy day in Blacksburg. The USA Today Coaches Poll, ESPN Power Rankings and Fan Rankings fared about the same. By contract, Chaos Rankings only had 1 team in the Top 10 lose, and that was Cal, who I think spent all week buying into the Jahvid Best hype and preparing for Oregon's dumb winged uniforms (I think I actually miss last year's faux-diamond-plate shoulders), then showed up in Eugene and thought they were playing a different team.

Additionally, it seemed like the entire country was busy falling all over themselves to ride Jacory Harris' supposedly unstoppable coattails and climb aboard the "The U is back!" bandwagon, including several notable commentators placing Miami in their Top 5 lists. These are the same people who assured us that Florida would beat Tennessee by 50-something points. Meanwhile, Chaos Rankings had Miami listed at a much more sane position of 21 last week (above VT, but not substantially). The thing is, two games doesn't really tell you that much about a team, regardless of who they play or how well they appear. For that matter, 12-14 games doesn't really tell you enough either, but it is what it is.
Sure, Miami beat F$U, who looked great at the time, then looked terrible against Jax State, looked amazing at BYU, and then rolled over and died against USF. So who knows what beating FSU proves. Sure, Miami beat GT, who looked solid against Jax State (making F$U look even worse), started out hot and then fell to pieces against Clemson (2nd game in 6 days), played like a team who was on their 3rd game in 13 days against Miami (who was on their 2nd game in 11 days), and then put together a solid effort last week against UNC. So what does beating GT prove? A well-rested pumped-up team can beat a depressed exhausted team? Duh.
Beating ranked teams only means something if the rankings mean something. Why isn't everyone suddenly vaunting VT now, I mean, they did beat the almighty Hurricanes, right? Oh sure, they lost to Alabama, but they're an SEC team, and everyone knows the SEC is the toughest, best conference in the universe, especially on defense (someone just forgot to tell U(sic)GA, South Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, and probably a few others that), but now everyone is saying that the Tide are a legit national title contender (despite actually losing ground to Florida in Chaos Rankings). In theory, losing to them (VT) should count for a lot more than losing to a BYU team that got pummeled by Jekyll/Hyde State (OU). But again, Big 12, best conference, universe, offensive power-house, injured Heisman, blah blah blah.

So before we go off anointing any more "contenders" or "Heisman-hopefuls" or "best team evar!1!!!1!1s", can we please stop for 60 seconds, look at the stats, look at the records, look at the outcome of more than one game, and do a little critical thinking? Especially you poll voters who hold sway in who has a chance to compete for, as Ivan Maisel now calls it, the Controversial Crystal Football.