Chaos Rankings

Friday, December 23, 2011

Kellen Moore: A Retrospective

With Kellen Moore ending his college career last night, I found myself reflecting back on a 4-year stretch of excellence. If you never watched him play, consider yourself forever poorer for having missed out on the #11 experience. Better wordsmiths than me will surely craft elaborately detailed accounts of his success, but I wanted to focus on a few of his more quantitative accomplishments here. So farewell to one of the greatest college QBs we may ever see and thank you for all the memories.

Kellen Moore:
Record: 50-3
#1 all-time in career wins. This requires not just being a 4-year starter, but also averaging 12.5 wins a season. Colt McCoy (second place on the career wins list) of Texas, also a 4-year starter, and aided by the Big XII having a championship game, still only put up 45 wins. Argue all you want about strength of schedule, but 50 wins is still a staggering number.
Passing Yards: 14,667
#5 on the all-time list behind Case Keenum, Timmy Chang, Graham Harrell, and Ty Detmer. Not bad company to keep.
Total Yards: 14,534
Good enough for #8 on the all-time best list. Impressive for a pocket passer with -133 career net rushing yards.
Passing TDs: 142
#2 on the all-time list behind Case Keenum (currently 152, with a bowl game still on the schedule).
Career Passer Rating: 169.0
#3 on the all time list behind Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow.
Single Season Passer Rating: 182.6 (2010)
Third best score ever posted (currently, RG3 and Russell Wilson have higher scores, but have their bowl games remaining).
Lowest Interception Percentage: 0.696% (350+ attempts)
#1 all time for QBs with at least 350 attempts, this mark was set during the 2009 season. Kellen Moore threw 3 INTs on 431 pass attempts.
Career Completion Percentage: 69.78%
#2 all-time behind Colt Brennan (70.4%)
Versus BCS AQ-Conference Teams: 6-0
Versus Top-25 Teams (when played): 7-2
In BCS Bowl Games: 1-0
2010 Heisman Trophy: Finalist
Conference Championships: 3 (WAC)
Other Notes:
Against VT last year and U(sic)GA this year, Moore is 2-0 against ACC and SEC division champions, while considering that both season-opening games were played at "neutral" sites that were anything but. The Hokies game was at Fedex Field near Washington, DC, an area with a huge VT alumni base. The Georgia game was in Atlanta in the Georgia Dome, also a home to a large alumni base. Not to mention the travel time required for Boise compared to their opponents. In 2009, Boise hosted then #16 Oregon to open the season (one of the few teams brave enough to visit Bronco Stadium) and sent the Ducks home with a loss. Kellen Moore has three straight season-opening wins against ranked BCS AQ teams, two of them effectively in road games.
Moore's three losses were by a combined 5 points. Two of those losses were 1-point margins against TCU. Two of those losses involved missed field goals on the final play of the game. Last year, a missed FG against Nevada in overtime almost certainly cost Boise a spot in the BCS championship game and definitely cost them a BCS at-large spot. This year, even with a win, Boise would likely have been jumped by Alabama and OSU, but the missed FG against TCU certainly cost them another BCS bowl, and possibly a BCS championship game slot.
Beginning next year, the Touchdown Club of Columbus will rename their annual College Football Quarterback of the Year award after Moore.
Kellen Moore has been named to more All-American lists than you can shake a stick at.

With about 3:30 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter of the 2011 Las Vegas Bowl, Boise had 1st and goal on the 2 after two consecutive ASU penalties on the previous play. While Kellen Moore was talking to coach Chris Petersen on the sidelines, I saw him gesturing at fellow senior Doug Martin. Martin returned the opening kickoff for a TD, but hadn't scored a rushing TD all game. Rather than trying to set up a play to get himself another TD or even try to find fellow senior Tyler Shoemaker (who already had a receiving TD in the game), Moore was actively campaigning for Petersen to keep Martin on the field and give him a chance to score a rushing TD in his final game as a Bronco. And really, amidst all the mind-boggling stats for a kid who's too small and doesn't have a big enough arm to play football, if that doesn't tell you everything you need to know about Kellen Moore, I don't know what will.

posted by Rev. Adam at 3:36 PM | 0 comments

Monday, December 12, 2011

Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

Here's the first cut at this year's bowl predictions. I may have some edits to do later on, but for now, here's the output using Chaos Rankings data.

Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, N.M. - December 17, 2011 - 2:00 PM
#31 Temple beats #40 Wyoming by 2.7313
TeamTempleWyoming
SOS0.07530.2135
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.083333 (4.53055)27 (11.529)
YPG379.25 (57.11505)399.166667 (170.444167)
TCPG1 (1.8494)1.333333 (2.097333)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG13.25 (24.50455)23.5 (36.9655)
YPG268.833333 (497.180367)369.75 (581.61675)
TFPG1.166667 (0.1757)2.333333 (0.996333)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.66%77.3%
Defense56.33%72.64%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.791667 (20.748025)20.125 (18.016775)



Famous Idaho Potato I-Can't-Believe-This-Field-Is-Going-To-Have-A-Big-East-Logo-On-It Bowl
Boise, Idaho - December 17, 2011 - 5:30 PM
#32 Ohio loses to #53 Utah State by 1.0661
TeamOhioUtah State
SOS0.08790.171
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31 (5.4498)34.5 (11.799)
YPG455.615385 (80.097185)458.75 (156.8925)
TCPG2.153846 (3.929046)2 (3.316)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.076923 (40.272723)26.833333 (44.489667)
YPG356.307692 (649.976492)350.416667 (580.990833)
TFPG2 (0.3516)1.166667 (0.399)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense77.76%85.95%
Defense70.81%87.51%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.916667 (24.969733)28.288462 (26.035862)



R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans - December 17, 2011 - 9:00 PM
#35 San Diego State beats #45 Louisiana Lafayette by 7.73
TeamSan Diego StateLouisiana Lafayette
SOS0.2680.1963
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.75 (15.946)32.333333 (12.694067)
YPG421 (225.656)379.583333 (149.024417)
TCPG1.416667 (2.074)1.833333 (2.9469)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.416667 (35.746)29.833333 (47.9541)
YPG373 (546.072)392.166667 (630.3687)
TFPG2.416667 (1.295333)1.916667 (0.752483)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense80.76%97.35%
Defense74.81%86.94%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.791667 (31.95005)28.375 (24.220033)



Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg St. Pete Bowl
St. Petersburg, Fla. - December 20, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#38 Florida International loses to #73 Marshall by 25.0977
TeamFlorida InternationalMarshall
SOS0.09290.7685
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.25 (4.87725)22 (33.814)
YPG369.5 (68.6531)334.583333 (514.254583)
TCPG1.166667 (2.116567)2.25 (1.04175)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.416667 (35.225717)30.166667 (13.967167)
YPG347.5 (630.4345)393.25 (182.07475)
TFPG1.583333 (0.294183)2.333333 (3.586333)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.19%75.15%
Defense63.86%87.67%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score28.208333 (9.422208)20.708333 (34.519858)



S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego - December 21, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#12 TCU beats #34 Louisiana Tech by 9.74
TeamTCULouisiana Tech
SOS0.36890.2773
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG41.666667 (30.741667)30.583333 (16.961517)
YPG443 (326.8454)398.916667 (221.239183)
TCPG1.583333 (1.998483)1.5 (2.1681)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.25 (26.82175)22.5 (32.5215)
YPG346.333333 (437.141933)376.333333 (543.9522)
TFPG1.75 (1.29115)2.5 (1.3865)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense107.49%87.62%
Defense70.12%68.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.083333 (31.631583)25.916667 (21.891633)



MAACO Bowl Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas - December 22, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#57 Arizona State loses to #5 Boise State by 15.5483
TeamArizona StateBoise State
SOS0.45430.5768
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.916667 (30.816683)43.25 (49.8932)
YPG452.916667 (411.520083)483.25 (557.4772)
TCPG1.75 (1.90995)1.333333 (1.128533)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.166667 (27.4669)18.25 (15.4468)
YPG400.916667 (437.56045)316.5 (267.8856)
TFPG2.333333 (2.120067)2.083333 (2.403333)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense85.58%102.28%
Defense71.74%65.9%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.083333 (23.131742)34.208333 (38.68005)



Sheraton Hawaii Aloha Bowl
Honolulu - December 24, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#43 Nevada loses to #11 Southern Miss by 2.5612
TeamNevadaSouthern Miss
SOS0.30420.2672
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG32.916667 (20.0265)37.846154 (20.224985)
YPG522.083333 (317.6355)471 (251.7024)
TCPG2 (2.7832)2.307692 (3.382154)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.25 (35.1379)20.615385 (30.213908)
YPG371.916667 (517.559233)325.384615 (476.883692)
TFPG1.916667 (1.1661)1.692308 (0.904369)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense72.06%91.83%
Defense77.59%72.41%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.766026 (25.120204)31.548077 (27.681442)



AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Shreveport, La. - December 26, 2011 - 5:00 PM
#36 Missouri beats #47 North Carolina by 1.7783
TeamMissouriNorth Carolina
SOS0.59820.614
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.545455 (37.740982)28.333333 (34.793333)
YPG456.272727 (545.884691)398.5 (489.358)
TCPG1.545455 (1.241927)2 (1.544)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.818182 (17.533091)23.5 (18.142)
YPG351.363636 (282.355818)345.5 (266.726)
TFPG1.636364 (1.957745)1.916667 (2.353667)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense79.01%81.26%
Defense70.97%77.73%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.522727 (27.941491)25.075758 (26.163212)



Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Detroit - December 27, 2011 - 4:30 PM
#52 Western Michigan loses to #68 Purdue by 8.3408
TeamWestern MichiganPurdue
SOS0.26330.4476
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG35.583333 (18.738183)26.083333 (23.3498)
YPG457.083333 (240.700083)372.25 (333.2382)
TCPG2.333333 (3.437933)1.333333 (1.473067)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28 (41.2552)26.416667 (29.185133)
YPG434.416667 (640.069517)375.75 (415.1286)
TFPG2.25 (1.18485)1.833333 (1.6412)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense88.97%80.08%
Defense73.66%80.35%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score31 (23.961658)27.041667 (32.3025)



Belk No-Longer-Car-Related Charlotte Bowl
Charlotte, N.C. - December 27, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#54 Louisville beats #48 North Carolina State by 11.1268
TeamLouisvilleNorth Carolina State
SOS0.52070.2841
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG21.75 (22.65045)28 (15.9096)
YPG329.083333 (342.707383)345.833333 (196.5025)
TCPG1.5 (1.4379)1.916667 (2.744283)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.166667 (18.373167)23.666667 (33.885933)
YPG329.75 (316.09835)327.333333 (468.675867)
TFPG1.5 (1.5621)2.75 (1.56255)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense75.53%92.53%
Defense66.43%82.63%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score22.708333 (28.268192)23.583333 (17.141383)



Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman Beltway Bowl
Washington, D.C. - December 28, 2011 - 4:30 PM
#29 Toledo beats #49 Air Force by 18.3698
TeamToledoAir Force
SOS0.42780.1548
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG42.25 (36.1491)34.416667 (10.6554)
YPG493.083333 (421.8821)458.916667 (142.0806)
TCPG1 (1.1444)2 (3.3808)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.916667 (35.381033)27.583333 (46.626867)
YPG398.833333 (456.424867)372.5 (629.674)
TFPG2.333333 (1.9964)1.75 (0.5418)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.93%85.71%
Defense88.59%84.63%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.916667 (41.387983)32.666667 (23.018217)



Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
San Diego - December 28, 2011 - 8:00 PM
#44 California loses to #46 Texas by 19.6707
TeamCaliforniaTexas
SOS0.48910.8675
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG29.833333 (29.182967)28.666667 (49.736667)
YPG417.666667 (408.561533)405 (702.675)
TCPG1.666667 (1.703)2.166667 (0.574167)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.416667 (24.94895)23.25 (6.16125)
YPG338.833333 (346.2199)315.666667 (83.651667)
TFPG2 (1.9564)1.75 (3.03625)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense81.63%80.89%
Defense82.36%84.18%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.541667 (17.672108)26.541667 (37.342808)



Champs Sports Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, Fla. - December 29, 2011 - 5:30 PM
#30 Florida State loses to #41 Notre Dame by 19.4685
TeamFlorida StateNotre Dame
SOS0.36430.8223
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.666667 (23.072333)30.5 (50.1603)
YPG375.75 (273.77145)424.083333 (697.44745)
TCPG1.5 (1.9071)2.916667 (1.036583)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG15.166667 (19.2829)20.916667 (7.433783)
YPG275.583333 (350.37665)348.833333 (123.975367)
TFPG1.833333 (1.335767)1.083333 (1.78165)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense96.32%82.19%
Defense62.9%68.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.291667 (15.253058)22.833333 (34.7216)



Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio - December 29, 2011 - 9:00 PM
#56 Washington loses to #25 Baylor by 7.3909
TeamWashingtonBaylor
SOS0.57570.5943
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG31.5 (36.2691)43.5 (51.7041)
YPG392.333333 (451.7326)575 (683.445)
TCPG1.666667 (1.414333)2.083333 (1.690417)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.333333 (28.286667)35.666667 (28.939933)
YPG426.333333 (361.786467)464.25 (376.69245)
TFPG1.833333 (2.1109)2.083333 (2.47625)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense91.76%86.46%
Defense89.36%87.8%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.583333 (32.604517)38.416667 (39.995383)



Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Dallas - December 30, 2011 - 12:00 PM
#28 BYU loses to #39 Tulsa by 29.9136
TeamBYUTulsa
SOS0.14830.7251
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.583333 (9.071017)34.083333 (49.42765)
YPG412.416667 (122.322783)430.333333 (624.0694)
TCPG2.083333 (3.54875)2.583333 (1.420317)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.333333 (34.6358)27.583333 (15.165317)
YPG318.666667 (542.8168)421.833333 (231.923967)
TFPG1.916667 (0.568483)2.25 (3.26295)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.75%90.52%
Defense72.92%74.73%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.083333 (12.118167)27.208333 (42.031725)



New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, N.Y. - December 30, 2011 - 3:20 PM
#37 Rutgers loses to #74 Iowa State by 7.2023
TeamRutgersIowa State
SOS0.47550.7436
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.333333 (25.043)23.5 (34.9492)
YPG337 (320.487)395.833333 (588.683333)
TCPG2.333333 (2.447667)2.666667 (1.367467)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG18.75 (19.66875)29.583333 (15.170333)
YPG315.666667 (331.134333)435.583333 (223.367133)
TFPG2.583333 (2.45675)2 (2.9744)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense89.3%67.85%
Defense67.88%77.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.958333 (20.106667)21.125 (27.308975)



Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tenn. - December 30, 2011 - 6:40 PM
#59 Mississippi State beats #70 Wake Forest by 12.8387
TeamMississippi StateWake Forest
SOS0.69320.4938
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.5 (35.3532)26.75 (26.4183)
YPG353.333333 (489.861333)374.5 (369.8562)
TCPG1.333333 (0.818133)1 (1.0124)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG18.5 (11.3516)27.75 (28.0941)
YPG317.833333 (195.022533)399.083333 (404.031967)
TFPG1.583333 (2.195133)1.416667 (1.3991)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense82.48%81.63%
Defense66.52%79.47%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score26.625 (31.72365)22.625 (18.88495)



Insight Bowl
Tempe, Ariz. - December 30, 2011 - 10:00 PM
#51 Iowa loses to #19 Oklahoma by 31.1945
TeamIowaOklahoma
SOS0.48910.895
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.666667 (28.041733)40.25 (72.0475)
YPG382.5 (374.1615)535.75 (958.9925)
TCPG1.333333 (1.3624)2.333333 (0.49)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.666667 (23.1608)22.75 (4.7775)
YPG362.916667 (370.82825)372.833333 (78.295)
TFPG1.333333 (1.304267)2.083333 (3.729167)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense85.65%85.86%
Defense71.38%69.74%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.708333 (16.409617)31.458333 (47.60415)



Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas Texas Bowl
Houston - December 31, 2011 - 12:00 PM
#55 Texas A&M beats #64 Northwestern by 35.1945
TeamTexas A&MNorthwestern
SOS0.86670.3972
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG39.583333 (68.61375)29.5 (23.4348)
YPG498.666667 (864.3888)435.25 (345.7626)
TCPG1.916667 (0.510983)1.333333 (1.607467)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG28.666667 (7.642533)27.25 (32.8526)
YPG388.166667 (103.485233)408.583333 (492.588067)
TFPG1.25 (2.16675)1.666667 (1.324)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.72%77.46%
Defense84.4%76.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.416667 (50.733175)29.083333 (15.538667)



Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas - December 31, 2011 - 2:00 PM
#33 Georgia Tech beats #50 Utah by 2.971
TeamGeorgia TechUtah
SOS0.38760.351
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.916667 (27.0674)24.583333 (17.2575)
YPG459.583333 (356.269)310.416667 (217.9125)
TCPG1.5 (1.8372)1.833333 (2.379667)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24 (29.3952)19.666667 (25.527333)
YPG336.666667 (412.349333)346 (449.108)
TFPG1.416667 (1.0982)2.833333 (1.989)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.83%90.51%
Defense81.47%64.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.291667 (26.297367)24.291667 (23.32635)



Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco - December 31, 2011 - 3:30 PM
#22 Cincinnati loses to #58 Vanderbilt by 10.7014
TeamCincinnatiVanderbilt
SOS0.29260.5694
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.5 (19.6042)26.916667 (30.6527)
YPG393.833333 (230.471267)342.833333 (390.4186)
TCPG1.583333 (2.2401)2.083333 (1.794167)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20 (28.296)20.833333 (17.941667)
YPG365.25 (516.7557)325.583333 (280.392367)
TFPG2.5 (1.463)2.416667 (2.7521)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense97.21%89.73%
Defense62.58%73.13%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.166667 (18.772933)23.458333 (29.47435)



AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tenn. - December 31, 2011 - 3:30 PM
#65 Illinois loses to #80 UCLA by 8.4927
TeamIllinoisUCLA
SOS0.61210.8394
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.833333 (27.952567)23.769231 (39.903785)
YPG360.166667 (440.916033)388.615385 (652.407508)
TCPG2.25 (1.74555)1.846154 (0.592985)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.833333 (15.3867)32.230769 (10.352523)
YPG287.166667 (222.7839)424.384615 (136.312338)
TFPG1.416667 (1.734283)1.538462 (2.582769)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense72.45%69.9%
Defense78.93%86.8%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.532051 (19.152545)21.801282 (27.645242)



Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta - December 31, 2011 - 7:30 PM
#42 Virginia loses to #61 Auburn by 22.353
TeamVirginiaAuburn
SOS0.35880.8528
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.166667 (16.6244)24.25 (41.3608)
YPG396.666667 (284.648)328.416667 (560.147467)
TCPG2.166667 (2.778533)1.75 (0.5152)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22 (28.2128)28 (8.2432)
YPG329.083333 (422.016467)378.083333 (111.307733)
TFPG1.583333 (1.1362)1.583333 (2.700533)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense66.75%84.39%
Defense76.4%84.64%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.583333 (12.4338)23.125 (34.7868)



TicketCity Bowl
Dallas - January 2, 2012 - 12:00 PM
#2 Houston loses to #27 Penn State by 13.6262
TeamHoustonPenn State
SOS0.2350.6655
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG50.769231 (23.861538)19.75 (26.28725)
YPG600.846154 (282.397692)345.416667 (459.749583)
TCPG1.153846 (1.765385)1.833333 (1.2265)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG23.076923 (35.307692)15.666667 (10.481)
YPG380.615385 (582.341538)304.25 (203.54325)
TFPG2.307692 (1.084615)2.166667 (2.883833)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense96.57%65.35%
Defense69.29%58.85%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score33.217949 (17.171269)21.413462 (30.797471)



Capital One Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Fla. - January 2, 2012 - 1:00 PM
#16 Michigan State loses to #15 Georgia by 7.2713
TeamMichigan StateGeorgia
SOS0.50510.6578
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.846154 (31.160785)32.153846 (42.3016)
YPG390.384615 (394.366538)416.538462 (547.998)
TCPG1.153846 (1.142077)1.692308 (1.158215)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17 (16.8266)19.615385 (13.424769)
YPG254.307692 (251.713754)272.692308 (186.630615)
TFPG1.615385 (1.631862)2.230769 (2.9348)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense90.3%88.22%
Defense76.4%82.21%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.230769 (22.292777)24.576923 (29.5641)



TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Fla. - January 2, 2012 - 1:30 PM
#26 Nebraska beats #14 South Carolina by 5.0806
TeamNebraskaSouth Carolina
SOS0.7070.5852
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG30.5 (43.127)30.083333 (35.209533)
YPG390.833333 (552.638333)377.333333 (441.630933)
TCPG1.416667 (0.830167)2.333333 (1.935733)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG22.833333 (13.380333)18.833333 (15.624133)
YPG350.666667 (205.490667)268.916667 (223.093267)
TFPG1.5 (2.121)2.5 (2.926)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense89.19%91.12%
Defense74.42%80.04%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.666667 (29.375567)26.458333 (24.294933)



Outback Bowl
Tampa, Fla. - January 2, 2012 - 1:00 PM
#60 Ohio State beats #69 Florida by 2.6336
TeamOhio StateFlorida
SOS0.75410.688
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.083333 (37.830683)25.583333 (35.202667)
YPG319.5 (481.8699)334.583333 (460.386667)
TCPG1.083333 (0.532783)1.916667 (1.196)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.75 (10.20485)20.583333 (12.844)
YPG328.916667 (161.761217)300.5 (187.512)
TFPG1.416667 (2.136617)1 (1.376)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense89.72%87.39%
Defense72.1%78.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score22.833333 (25.337342)23.166667 (22.703758)



Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO
Pasadena, Calif. - January 2, 2012 - 5:00 PM
#6 Wisconsin loses to #8 Oregon by 11.0686
TeamWisconsinOregon
SOS0.44240.6208
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG44.615385 (39.475692)46.153846 (57.304615)
YPG468.076923 (414.154462)515.230769 (639.710523)
TCPG0.615385 (0.686277)1.384615 (1.050092)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.923077 (22.218215)23.615385 (17.909908)
YPG321.769231 (358.837046)382.153846 (289.825477)
TFPG1.846154 (1.633477)2.076923 (2.578708)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense108.93%102.38%
Defense70.76%70.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.115385 (28.6928)33.038462 (39.761415)



Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Ariz. - January 2, 2012 - 8:30 PM
#7 Stanford loses to #4 Oklahoma State by 21.4368
TeamStanfordOklahoma State
SOS0.52290.803
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG43.583333 (45.57945)49.333333 (79.229333)
YPG482.166667 (504.2499)554.25 (890.1255)
TCPG1.25 (1.19275)1.833333 (0.722333)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG20.333333 (19.402067)25.833333 (10.178333)
YPG332.583333 (317.351017)447.5 (176.315)
TFPG1.75 (1.83015)3.5 (5.621)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense103.3%101.72%
Defense69.87%65.97%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score34.708333 (27.878892)34.833333 (49.3157)



Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans - January 3, 2012 - 8:30 PM
#9 Michigan beats #10 Virginia Tech by 12.7627
TeamMichiganVirginia Tech
SOS0.75060.5644
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.166667 (51.291)28.538462 (32.214215)
YPG422.083333 (633.6315)408.846154 (461.505538)
TCPG1.75 (0.8729)1.230769 (1.072246)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG17.166667 (8.562733)17.230769 (15.011446)
YPG319.833333 (159.532867)315.538462 (274.897108)
TFPG2.25 (3.3777)1.692308 (1.910277)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense92.51%79.77%
Defense61.34%62.41%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score25.698718 (33.151223)22.852564 (20.388474)



Discover Orange Bowl
Miami - January 4, 2012 - 8:30 PM
#24 West Virginia loses to #21 Clemson by 5.3909
TeamWest VirginiaClemson
SOS0.53010.6178
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG34.916667 (37.01865)33.615385 (41.535169)
YPG461.083333 (488.84055)443.461538 (547.941077)
TCPG1.75 (1.64465)1.538462 (1.176)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG26.25 (24.66975)24.076923 (18.4044)
YPG341.916667 (321.333283)351.538462 (268.716)
TFPG1.583333 (1.67865)1.615385 (1.995969)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense86.55%86.63%
Defense87.74%78.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score29.496795 (27.711525)29.932692 (33.10246)



AT&T Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas - January 6, 2012 - 8:00 PM
#20 Kansas State beats #18 Arkansas by 0.6759
TeamKansas StateArkansas
SOS0.63540.5476
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.083333 (42.0423)37.416667 (40.978733)
YPG344.833333 (438.2142)446.333333 (488.824267)
TCPG1.083333 (0.789967)1.75 (1.5834)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG27.833333 (20.296067)22.75 (20.5842)
YPG400.333333 (291.923067)371.666667 (336.284)
TFPG2.166667 (2.7534)1.583333 (1.734067)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense109.65%95.81%
Defense79.46%69.96%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score27.916667 (31.31325)32.625 (30.6374)



BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, Ala. - January 7, 2012 - 1:00 PM
#62 SMU loses to #66 Pittsburgh by 6.8034
TeamSMUPittsburgh
SOS0.41920.5346
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG25.666667 (21.518933)25.75 (27.5319)
YPG396 (332.0064)364.416667 (389.6343)
TCPG2.666667 (3.0976)1.666667 (1.551333)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG24.5 (28.4592)22.416667 (20.865433)
YPG351.416667 (408.2056)354.083333 (329.580767)
TFPG1.166667 (0.978133)1.666667 (1.782)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense74.07%80.76%
Defense79.68%72.35%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score24.041667 (21.192183)25.125 (27.99555)



GoDaddy.com Danica Patrick Bowl
Mobile, Ala. - January 8, 2012 - 9:00 PM
#13 Arkansas State loses to #23 Northern Illinois by 1.1959
TeamArkansas StateNorthern Illinois
SOS0.05990.2321
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG33.5 (4.0133)38.307692 (17.782431)
YPG451.583333 (54.099683)481.692308 (223.601569)
TCPG1.833333 (3.447033)1.307692 (2.008354)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG19.333333 (36.350533)31.076923 (47.727938)
YPG322.666667 (606.677867)418.076923 (642.082538)
TFPG2.333333 (0.279533)1.615385 (0.749862)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense84.78%90.89%
Defense68.48%84.95%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score32.288462 (25.870619)28.820513 (27.066482)



Allstate BCS Championship Game Controversial Crystal Football Bowl
New Orleans - January 9, 2012 - 8:30 PM
#3 Alabama loses to #1 LSU by 8.4942
TeamAlabamaLSU
SOS0.61210.7682
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG36 (44.0712)38.461538 (59.092308)
YPG434.333333 (531.710867)377.769231 (580.404646)
TCPG1 (0.7758)0.615385 (0.285292)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG8.833333 (6.8529)10.538462 (4.885631)
YPG191.25 (148.37175)254.923077 (118.182338)
TFPG1.5 (1.8363)2.307692 (3.545538)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense94.73%116.36%
Defense52.79%47.25%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score23.269231 (24.478415)23.647436 (32.972604)


posted by Rev. Adam at 5:51 PM | 0 comments

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Week 15 (Final Regular Season) Rankings

Not too surprisingly, Army/Navy didn't have any substantial impact on the rankings from last week, so here are your final regular season rankings. Bowl predictions will probably be posted this week at some point.

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000LSU (13-0)10.000000
20.919554Houston (12-1)22.3E-5
30.918156Alabama (11-1)3-2.8E-5
40.878714Oklahoma State (11-1)4-1.3E-5
50.877255Boise State (11-1)5-2.1E-5
60.875024Wisconsin (11-2)6-2.6E-5
70.857111Stanford (11-1)72.0E-5
80.826056Oregon (11-2)8-1.2E-5
90.780823Michigan (10-2)9-1.9E-5
100.779144Virginia Tech (11-2)105.0E-6
110.763528Southern Miss (11-2)113.2E-4
120.760055TCU (10-2)120.0
130.751822Arkansas State (10-2)132.6E-5
140.751616South Carolina (10-2)142.85E-4
150.749469Georgia (10-3)15-5.0E-6
160.739439Michigan State (10-3)16-5.0E-6
170.738416USC (10-2)176.0E-6
180.735136Arkansas (10-2)181.3E-5
190.724277Oklahoma (9-3)19-2.2E-5
200.707463Kansas State (10-2)20-9.0E-6
210.690137Clemson (10-3)212.5E-5
220.682011Cincinnati (9-3)22-1.7E-5
230.678257Northern Illinois (10-3)23-3.08E-4
240.67484West Virginia (9-3)24-3.0E-6
250.67288Baylor (9-3)25-8.0E-6
260.663021Nebraska (9-3)26-2.1E-5
270.660528Penn State (9-3)27-3.5E-5
280.658627BYU (9-3)281.0E-5
290.654623Toledo (8-4)29-6.2E-5
300.648402Florida State (8-4)30-7.0E-6
310.639057Temple (8-4)31-3.52E-4
320.622826Ohio (9-4)32-5.1E-5
330.616634Georgia Tech (8-4)33-7.0E-6
340.609329Louisiana Tech (8-4)352.9E-5
350.609076San Diego State (8-4)34-3.18E-4
360.60087Missouri (7-4)36-2.1E-5
370.596306Rutgers (8-4)37-8.0E-6
380.584634Florida International (8-4)382.8E-5
390.581053Tulsa (8-4)39-1.0E-6
400.575174Wyoming (8-4)40-1.5E-5
410.57496Notre Dame (8-4)413.16E-4
420.562725Virginia (8-4)421.2E-5
430.560796Nevada (7-5)431.1E-5
440.553177California (7-5)44-5.0E-6
450.552818Louisiana Lafayette (8-4)453.1E-5
460.551586Texas (7-5)46-5.0E-6
470.536879North Carolina (7-5)471.8E-5
480.530546North Carolina State (7-5)48-5.0E-6
490.53043Air Force (7-5)49-2.4E-5
500.527202Utah (7-5)50-4.0E-6
510.52226Iowa (7-5)51-1.8E-5
520.519214Western Michigan (7-5)52-4.5E-5
530.513482Utah State (7-5)531.3E-5
540.512462Louisville (7-5)540.0
550.505093Texas A&M (6-6)551.3E-5
560.495322Washington (7-5)56-4.0E-6
570.493845Arizona State (6-6)57-4.0E-6
580.482483Vanderbilt (6-6)58-3.19E-4
590.480974Mississippi State (6-6)591.4E-5
600.477765Ohio State (6-6)60-3.0E-6
610.477513Auburn (7-5)611.4E-5
620.475906SMU (7-5)623.23E-4
630.472231Western Kentucky (7-5)633.36E-4
640.467029Northwestern (6-6)64-3.4E-4
650.462881Illinois (6-6)65-1.6E-5
660.461355Pittsburgh (6-6)662.0E-5
670.459176Miami (6-6)67-3.0E-6
680.4552Purdue (6-6)681.5E-5
690.453225Florida (6-6)692.0E-6
700.448986Wake Forest (6-6)702.0E-6
710.442021South Florida (5-7)717.0E-6
720.433824UCF (5-7)725.3E-5
730.416408Marshall (6-6)733.1E-5
740.408397Iowa State (6-6)74-1.0E-6
750.408138Eastern Michigan (6-6)75-3.1E-5
760.407484Navy (5-7)820.031184
770.406866Hawaii (6-7)762.0E-6
780.387945Connecticut (5-7)77-2.3E-5
790.38625Tennessee (5-7)783.0E-6
800.385804UCLA (6-7)791.4E-5
810.384178Texas Tech (5-7)80-1.0E-6
820.377611Ball State (6-6)81-3.28E-4
830.372444Syracuse (5-7)83-9.0E-6
840.368904North Texas (5-7)843.3E-5
850.359012Kent State (5-7)85-4.0E-5
860.357851San Jose State (5-7)863.36E-4
870.35054East Carolina (5-7)873.55E-4
880.349286Louisiana Monroe (4-8)883.7E-5
890.345425Bowling Green (5-7)89-4.0E-5
900.328783UTEP (5-7)904.1E-5
910.321564Washington State (4-8)91-1.3E-5
920.318998Arizona (4-8)920.0
930.31786Miami (Ohio) (4-8)93-3.15E-4
940.3168Kentucky (5-7)942.4E-5
950.293121Rice (4-8)951.0E-5
960.277739Boston College (4-8)966.0E-6
970.242984Army (3-9)97-0.024026
980.242931Fresno State (4-9)986.0E-6
990.239579New Mexico State (4-9)991.8E-5
1000.236185Buffalo (3-9)100-5.1E-5
1010.229341Oregon State (3-9)1012.0E-6
1020.213153Duke (3-9)102-1.0E-5
1030.209841Colorado State (3-9)1031.3E-5
1040.198048Central Michigan (3-9)104-2.3E-5
1050.19421Minnesota (3-9)105-2.3E-5
1060.18852Troy (3-9)1063.55E-4
1070.180633UAB (3-9)1074.2E-5
1080.178124Maryland (2-10)1088.0E-6
1090.168413Colorado (3-10)1094.0E-6
1100.140808Middle Tennessee State (2-10)1103.9E-5
1110.131151Mississippi (2-10)111-8.0E-6
1120.117349Idaho (2-10)1122.3E-5
1130.107955UNLV (2-10)113-2.0E-6
1140.107835Memphis (2-10)1144.7E-5
1150.104703Kansas (2-10)115-7.0E-6
1160.094731Tulane (2-11)116-2.47E-4
1170.089041Indiana (1-11)117-2.0E-5
1180.024995Florida Atlantic (1-11)1184.2E-5
1190.01326Akron (1-11)119-1.9E-5
1200.000000New Mexico (1-11)1200.000000

posted by Rev. Adam at 7:04 PM | 0 comments

Saturday, December 03, 2011

Week 14 Rankings

Here are your quasi-final regular season rankings. Final regular season rankings will be posted next week following conclusion of the Army/Navy game. With Houston's loss to Southern Miss, the difference between #2 and #3 is miniscule. It's possible (though doubtful) the ripple effect of next week's game could push Alabama ahead, but we'll have to wait and see if Chaos Rankings agrees with the likely BCS #1 and #2.

Rank
Score
Team
Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000LSU (13-0)10.000000
20.919531Houston (12-1)2-0.068796
30.918185Alabama (11-1)3-0.022644
40.878728Oklahoma State (11-1)70.014309
50.877276Boise State (11-1)60.005279
60.87505Wisconsin (11-2)5-0.001573
70.85709Stanford (11-1)4-0.021687
80.826069Oregon (11-2)90.011431
90.780842Michigan (10-2)11-0.018434
100.779139Virginia Tech (11-2)8-0.074878
110.763208Southern Miss (11-2)160.010299
120.760055TCU (10-2)180.016798
130.751796Arkansas State (10-2)190.017011
140.75133South Carolina (10-2)14-0.016861
150.749475Georgia (10-3)10-0.063761
160.739444Michigan State (10-3)12-0.055549
170.738409USC (10-2)15-0.016724
180.735122Arkansas (10-2)17-0.016299
190.724299Oklahoma (9-3)13-0.070566
200.707473Kansas State (10-2)200.009777
210.690112Clemson (10-3)280.027467
220.682029Cincinnati (9-3)220.007722
230.678565Northern Illinois (10-3)240.008128
240.674844West Virginia (9-3)260.006161
250.672889Baylor (9-3)310.026948
260.663043Nebraska (9-3)21-0.013562
270.660563Penn State (9-3)23-0.013131
280.658617BYU (9-3)320.022363
290.654685Toledo (8-4)25-0.014637
300.64841Florida State (8-4)29-0.012738
310.63941Temple (8-4)30-0.013352
320.622878Ohio (9-4)27-0.043001
330.616641Georgia Tech (8-4)33-0.012612
340.609394San Diego State (8-4)390.01853
350.6093Louisiana Tech (8-4)34-0.013193
360.600892Missouri (7-4)35-0.011521
370.596314Rutgers (8-4)37-0.011372
380.584606Florida International (8-4)38-0.010577
390.581055Tulsa (8-4)40-0.009386
400.575189Wyoming (8-4)440.012741
410.574644Notre Dame (8-4)41-0.007501
420.562712Virginia (8-4)42-0.00939
430.560785Nevada (7-5)530.041965
440.553182California (7-5)43-0.009469
450.552786Louisiana Lafayette (8-4)45-0.008721
460.551592Texas (7-5)36-0.058725
470.53686North Carolina (7-5)46-0.008312
480.530551North Carolina State (7-5)47-0.009073
490.530454Air Force (7-5)48-0.007887
500.527206Utah (7-5)49-0.008962
510.522278Iowa (7-5)50-0.007916
520.519259Western Michigan (7-5)51-0.007756
530.513469Utah State (7-5)590.026822
540.512461Louisville (7-5)52-0.007542
550.50508Texas A&M (6-6)54-0.006587
560.495326Washington (7-5)55-0.007027
570.49385Arizona State (6-6)56-0.007527
580.482803Vanderbilt (6-6)57-0.007291
590.480959Mississippi State (6-6)58-0.00649
600.477769Ohio State (6-6)60-0.006169
610.477498Auburn (7-5)61-0.005534
620.475582SMU (7-5)62-0.003727
630.471895Western Kentucky (7-5)63-0.005114
640.467369Northwestern (6-6)64-0.006201
650.462898Illinois (6-6)66-0.003792
660.461334Pittsburgh (6-6)750.040894
670.459179Miami (6-6)67-0.005397
680.455184Purdue (6-6)68-0.006031
690.453223Florida (6-6)69-0.004369
700.448984Wake Forest (6-6)70-0.005912
710.442014South Florida (5-7)65-0.028927
720.433771UCF (5-7)73-0.002888
730.416376Marshall (6-6)76-0.003841
740.408399Iowa State (6-6)72-0.036065
750.408169Eastern Michigan (6-6)79-0.00285
760.406863Hawaii (6-7)71-0.04246
770.387969Connecticut (5-7)77-0.031545
780.386247Tennessee (5-7)80-0.002514
790.385789UCLA (6-7)74-0.041481
800.38418Texas Tech (5-7)81-0.002148
810.37794Ball State (6-6)82-0.002552
820.3763Navy (4-7)83-0.002412
830.372453Syracuse (5-7)78-0.046733
840.36887North Texas (5-7)930.052756
850.359053Kent State (5-7)84-0.002271
860.357514San Jose State (5-7)85-0.001957
870.350185East Carolina (5-7)863.42E-4
880.349249Louisiana Monroe (4-8)940.047523
890.345466Bowling Green (5-7)875.59E-4
900.328741UTEP (5-7)889.4E-5
910.321577Washington State (4-8)897.93E-4
920.318998Arizona (4-8)900.001682
930.318176Miami (Ohio) (4-8)919.37E-4
940.316776Kentucky (5-7)92-3.8E-5
950.293111Rice (4-8)957.73E-4
960.277733Boston College (4-8)960.002116
970.267011Army (3-8)990.004039
980.242924Fresno State (4-9)97-0.02466
990.239561New Mexico State (4-9)98-0.025487
1000.236237Buffalo (3-9)1000.004217
1010.229338Oregon State (3-9)1020.005834
1020.213164Duke (3-9)1040.004634
1030.209828Colorado State (3-9)101-0.01536
1040.198071Central Michigan (3-9)1050.00609
1050.194234Minnesota (3-9)1060.005644
1060.188164Troy (3-9)103-0.027862
1070.180591UAB (3-9)1080.005519
1080.178115Maryland (2-10)1090.006445
1090.168408Colorado (3-10)1100.00701
1100.140768Middle Tennessee State (2-10)107-0.035818
1110.13116Mississippi (2-10)1130.009208
1120.117326Idaho (2-10)111-0.037284
1130.107957UNLV (2-10)112-0.022152
1140.107788Memphis (2-10)1140.007263
1150.104711Kansas (2-10)1150.009764
1160.094979Tulane (2-11)1160.009012
1170.089062Indiana (1-11)1170.010425
1180.024952Florida Atlantic (1-11)118-0.022418
1190.013279Akron (1-11)1200.013279
1200.000000New Mexico (1-11)119-0.012655

posted by Rev. Adam at 11:59 PM | 0 comments