2017-18 Final Rankings

Congratulations Alabama on yet another championship!

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	Alabama (13-1)	1	0.000000
2	0.973059	UCF (13-0)	2	-0.01965
3	0.947187	Wisconsin (13-1)	4	-0.018855
4	0.92118	Ohio State (12-2)	5	-0.01861
5	0.91451	Georgia (13-2)	3	-0.05488
6	0.89652	Clemson (12-2)	6	-0.017632
7	0.890853	Oklahoma (12-2)	7	-0.018312
8	0.890014	Penn State (11-2)	8	-0.017864
9	0.816548	Florida Atlantic (11-3)	9	-0.016839
10	0.807065	Washington (10-3)	10	-0.016432
11	0.803307	South Florida (10-2)	11	-0.016414
12	0.79878	Troy (11-2)	12	-0.016197
13	0.791978	Boise State (11-3)	13	-0.015725
14	0.789351	TCU (11-3)	14	-0.015875
15	0.781778	Oklahoma State (10-3)	15	-0.015895
16	0.776228	Notre Dame (10-3)	16	-0.015216
17	0.7647	Memphis (10-3)	17	-0.015524
18	0.760054	Auburn (10-4)	18	-0.015226
19	0.759868	USC (11-3)	19	-0.014755
20	0.756672	Toledo (11-3)	20	-0.015376
21	0.755978	Miami (10-3)	21	-0.014836
22	0.749753	San Diego State (10-3)	22	-0.015034
23	0.748482	Northwestern (10-3)	23	-0.014681
24	0.7457	Michigan State (10-3)	24	-0.014227
25	0.724029	Army (10-3)	25	-0.014356
26	0.722627	Fresno State (10-4)	26	-0.014154
27	0.716556	LSU (9-4)	27	-0.013912
28	0.711791	Virginia Tech (9-4)	28	-0.014363
29	0.705504	Mississippi State (9-4)	29	-0.013841
30	0.703813	Appalachian State (9-4)	30	-0.014969
31	0.695371	NC State (9-4)	31	-0.013744
32	0.675264	Washington State (9-4)	32	-0.013231
33	0.668701	Stanford (9-5)	33	-0.013255
34	0.662023	Ohio (9-4)	34	-0.013655
35	0.657602	Louisville (8-5)	35	-0.013521
36	0.655446	South Carolina (9-4)	36	-0.013076
37	0.632693	Iowa State (8-5)	37	-0.012672
38	0.626357	Iowa (8-5)	39	-0.012022
39	0.626294	Michigan (8-5)	38	-0.012133
40	0.62399	Wake Forest (8-5)	40	-0.012343
41	0.608829	Wyoming (8-5)	41	-0.012577
42	0.594328	Southern Mississippi (8-5)	42	-0.012261
43	0.59162	Kansas State (8-5)	43	-0.01194
44	0.590742	Northern Illinois (8-5)	44	-0.011955
45	0.585063	Arkansas State (7-5)	45	-0.012516
46	0.582246	Marshall (8-5)	46	-0.011554
47	0.581969	North Texas (9-5)	47	-0.011231
48	0.57516	Texas (7-6)	48	-0.011671
49	0.566712	Central Michigan (8-5)	49	-0.011368
50	0.563257	Utah (7-6)	50	-0.011422
51	0.563207	Oregon (7-6)	51	-0.01141
52	0.559681	Purdue (7-6)	52	-0.011072
53	0.558285	Houston (7-5)	53	-0.010931
54	0.557148	Navy (7-6)	56	-0.010869
55	0.556769	UAB (8-5)	54	-0.011566
56	0.556601	Louisiana Tech (7-6)	55	-0.011539
57	0.556211	Duke (7-6)	57	-0.011211
58	0.556035	Boston College (7-6)	58	-0.01074
59	0.55378	UT San Antonio (6-5)	59	-0.011599
60	0.545603	Florida State (7-6)	60	-0.010278
61	0.543456	Colorado State (7-6)	61	-0.010908
62	0.54205	Missouri (7-6)	62	-0.011342
63	0.540002	Arizona (7-6)	63	-0.011111
64	0.538895	Florida Intl (8-5)	64	-0.010507
65	0.534834	Texas A&M (7-6)	65	-0.010215
66	0.531837	SMU (7-6)	66	-0.010544
67	0.525525	Arizona State (7-6)	67	-0.010043
68	0.51806	West Virginia (7-6)	68	-0.010237
69	0.516784	Western Michigan (6-6)	69	-0.010651
70	0.510791	New Mexico State (7-6)	70	-0.010417
71	0.507964	Temple (7-6)	71	-0.009971
72	0.50725	Texas Tech (6-7)	72	-0.010348
73	0.501475	Buffalo (6-6)	73	-0.010341
74	0.497126	Georgia State (7-5)	74	-0.010073
75	0.496284	Kentucky (7-6)	75	-0.009816
76	0.492096	Middle Tennessee (7-6)	76	-0.009845
77	0.47803	Ole Miss (6-6)	77	-0.008963
78	0.472443	Utah State (6-7)	78	-0.009786
79	0.471979	Georgia Tech (5-6)	79	-0.009647
80	0.449698	Akron (7-7)	80	-0.008607
81	0.445994	Indiana (5-7)	81	-0.008945
82	0.439065	Tulane (5-7)	82	-0.008847
83	0.437071	Virginia (6-7)	83	-0.008513
84	0.436623	UCLA (6-7)	84	-0.008137
85	0.434113	Eastern Michigan (5-7)	85	-0.00894
86	0.42633	Western Kentucky (6-7)	86	-0.008825
87	0.426252	Minnesota (5-7)	87	-0.008389
88	0.424396	California (5-7)	88	-0.008602
89	0.422858	Miami (OH) (5-7)	89	-0.008882
90	0.419115	Pittsburgh (5-7)	90	-0.008368
91	0.415061	Air Force (5-7)	91	-0.008281
92	0.413728	Colorado (5-7)	92	-0.008377
93	0.409834	UNLV (5-7)	93	-0.008522
94	0.393563	Vanderbilt (5-7)	94	-0.00752
95	0.391553	Florida (4-7)	95	-0.007978
96	0.368146	UMass (4-8)	96	-0.008206
97	0.355879	Syracuse (4-8)	97	-0.006848
98	0.349829	Old Dominion (5-7)	99	-0.006906
99	0.349825	Louisiana (5-7)	98	-0.007053
100	0.344466	Arkansas (4-8)	100	-0.006386
101	0.339944	Maryland (4-8)	101	-0.006187
102	0.337285	Nebraska (4-8)	103	-0.006162
103	0.337047	Idaho (4-8)	102	-0.007314
104	0.325666	South Alabama (4-8)	104	-0.006759
105	0.321691	Louisiana Monroe (4-8)	105	-0.006532
106	0.312719	Tennessee (4-8)	106	-0.005931
107	0.309711	Cincinnati (4-8)	107	-0.006041
108	0.298445	Rutgers (4-8)	108	-0.005685
109	0.289985	BYU (4-9)	109	-0.005729
110	0.280329	Nevada (3-9)	110	-0.005727
111	0.27757	North Carolina (3-9)	111	-0.005676
112	0.260805	Hawaii (3-9)	112	-0.005581
113	0.243178	New Mexico (3-9)	113	-0.004764
114	0.231236	Connecticut (3-9)	114	-0.004473
115	0.221371	Tulsa (2-10)	115	-0.004482
116	0.212598	East Carolina (3-9)	116	-0.003784
117	0.195319	Georgia Southern (2-10)	117	-0.004541
118	0.187041	Bowling Green (2-10)	118	-0.003821
119	0.169831	Illinois (2-10)	119	-0.003151
120	0.14453	Ball State (2-10)	120	-0.002902
121	0.140918	Kent State (2-10)	121	-0.002691
122	0.13861	Texas State (2-10)	122	-0.003034
123	0.136991	Baylor (1-11)	123	-0.002921
124	0.08178	Charlotte (1-11)	124	-0.001823
125	0.081121	Oregon State (1-11)	125	-0.001342
126	0.073444	Rice (1-11)	126	-0.00131
127	0.069193	Kansas (1-11)	127	-0.001008
128	0.057351	San Jose State (2-11)	128	-2.78E-4
129	0.000000	UTEP (0-12)	129	0.000000

Championship Game Prediction Update

(FINAL) CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T
Atlanta, GA - January 8, 2018 - 8:00 PM
#3 Georgia beats #1 Alabama by 2.1259

Team	Georgia (13-1)	Alabama (12-1)
SOS	0.7877	0.6979
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	36.285714 (57.164514)	37.923077 (52.933031)
YPG	440.285714 (693.626114)	454.538462 (634.444785)
TCPG	1 (0.4246)	0.692308 (0.418292)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	15.714286 (6.672286)	11.076923 (6.692677)
YPG	289.571429 (122.952029)	252.461538 (152.537262)
TFPG	1.357143 (2.138043)	1.692308 (2.362123)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	94.19%	95.35%
Defense	62.02%	50.14%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.681319 (31.928596)	26.818681 (29.802658)

Post-Bowl Ranking Update

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	Alabama (12-1)	2	0.001158
2	0.992709	UCF (13-0)	1	-0.00729
3	0.969391	Georgia (13-1)	4	-0.007949
4	0.966042	Wisconsin (13-1)	6	3.09E-4
5	0.939791	Ohio State (12-2)	7	0.005159
6	0.914153	Clemson (12-2)	3	-0.068242
7	0.909166	Oklahoma (12-2)	5	-0.058759
8	0.907879	Penn State (11-2)	8	-0.002851
9	0.833387	Florida Atlantic (11-3)	17	0.018206
10	0.823498	Washington (10-3)	9	-0.064136
11	0.819721	South Florida (10-2)	16	-8.27E-4
12	0.814977	Troy (11-2)	20	0.0136
13	0.807704	Boise State (11-3)	19	0.003762
14	0.805226	TCU (11-3)	18	1.3E-5
15	0.797673	Oklahoma State (10-3)	23	0.009919
16	0.791445	Notre Dame (10-3)	21	-0.003339
17	0.780224	Memphis (10-3)	11	-0.058309
18	0.775281	Auburn (10-4)	14	-0.057366
19	0.774623	USC (11-3)	13	-0.061726
20	0.772048	Toledo (11-3)	10	-0.082189
21	0.770814	Miami (10-3)	12	-0.066205
22	0.764787	San Diego State (10-3)	15	-0.067446
23	0.763164	Northwestern (10-3)	25	0.009233
24	0.759927	Michigan State (10-3)	27	0.016411
25	0.738385	Army (10-3)	30	0.014332
26	0.736781	Fresno State (10-4)	29	0.006549
27	0.730469	LSU (9-4)	24	-0.047679
28	0.726154	Virginia Tech (9-4)	22	-0.06223
29	0.719345	Mississippi State (9-4)	32	0.011376
30	0.718783	Appalachian State (9-4)	35	0.035476
31	0.709115	NC State (9-4)	33	0.016233
32	0.688496	Washington State (9-4)	26	-0.063358
33	0.681956	Stanford (9-5)	28	-0.058788
34	0.675679	Ohio (9-4)	39	0.017882
35	0.671124	Louisville (8-5)	31	-0.052267
36	0.668522	South Carolina (9-4)	38	0.010154
37	0.645366	Iowa State (8-5)	43	0.007841
38	0.638428	Michigan (8-5)	34	-0.052584
39	0.638379	Iowa (8-5)	46	0.013408
40	0.636334	Wake Forest (8-5)	45	0.010773
41	0.621407	Wyoming (8-5)	55	0.026119
42	0.60659	Southern Mississippi (8-5)	36	-0.060624
43	0.603561	Kansas State (8-5)	58	0.013639
44	0.602698	Northern Illinois (8-5)	37	-0.057286
45	0.59758	Arkansas State (7-5)	42	-0.044211
46	0.5938	Marshall (8-5)	60	0.011772
47	0.593201	North Texas (9-5)	40	-0.055807
48	0.586831	Texas (7-6)	62	0.022354
49	0.57808	Central Michigan (8-5)	41	-0.069008
50	0.574679	Utah (7-6)	66	0.024482
51	0.574617	Oregon (7-6)	44	-0.053611
52	0.570754	Purdue (7-6)	65	0.019076
53	0.569217	Houston (7-5)	48	-0.050548
54	0.568336	UAB (8-5)	47	-0.056366
55	0.568141	Louisiana Tech (7-6)	69	0.037094
56	0.568017	Navy (7-6)	70	0.039032
57	0.567422	Duke (7-6)	68	0.022593
58	0.566776	Boston College (7-6)	49	-0.05212
59	0.56538	UT San Antonio (6-5)	61	-0.014915
60	0.555882	Florida State (7-6)	71	0.029846
61	0.554365	Colorado State (7-6)	56	-0.040235
62	0.553393	Missouri (7-6)	52	-0.051381
63	0.551113	Arizona (7-6)	53	-0.053382
64	0.549403	Florida Intl (8-5)	51	-0.059619
65	0.54505	Texas A&M (7-6)	57	-0.048654
66	0.542381	SMU (7-6)	50	-0.072118
67	0.535568	Arizona State (7-6)	54	-0.060655
68	0.528298	West Virginia (7-6)	59	-0.054267
69	0.527436	Western Michigan (6-6)	67	-0.017629
70	0.521209	New Mexico State (7-6)	76	0.014855
71	0.517935	Temple (7-6)	80	0.033954
72	0.517598	Texas Tech (6-7)	63	-0.042557
73	0.511816	Buffalo (6-6)	72	-0.012638
74	0.507199	Georgia State (7-5)	83	0.029793
75	0.506101	Kentucky (7-6)	64	-0.051272
76	0.501941	Middle Tennessee (7-6)	81	0.020164
77	0.486994	Ole Miss (6-6)	77	-0.012063
78	0.482229	Utah State (6-7)	74	-0.037039
79	0.481627	Georgia Tech (5-6)	78	-0.011694
80	0.458306	Akron (7-7)	73	-0.062758
81	0.45494	Indiana (5-7)	85	-0.007453
82	0.447912	Tulane (5-7)	84	-0.014521
83	0.445584	Virginia (6-7)	75	-0.065111
84	0.44476	UCLA (6-7)	79	-0.046864
85	0.443053	Eastern Michigan (5-7)	86	-0.011193
86	0.435155	Western Kentucky (6-7)	82	-0.043645
87	0.434641	Minnesota (5-7)	88	-0.008981
88	0.432998	California (5-7)	87	-0.016049
89	0.431741	Miami (OH) (5-7)	89	-0.010385
90	0.427483	Pittsburgh (5-7)	90	-0.011079
91	0.423343	Air Force (5-7)	92	-0.007182
92	0.422105	Colorado (5-7)	91	-0.014043
93	0.418356	UNLV (5-7)	93	-0.011354
94	0.401083	Vanderbilt (5-7)	95	-0.008994
95	0.399532	Florida (4-7)	94	-0.010546
96	0.376353	UMass (4-8)	96	-0.007036
97	0.362728	Syracuse (4-8)	97	-0.006545
98	0.356879	Louisiana (5-7)	99	-0.009337
99	0.356735	Old Dominion (5-7)	98	-0.00982
100	0.350852	Arkansas (4-8)	100	-0.008548
101	0.346131	Maryland (4-8)	101	-0.007316
102	0.344361	Idaho (4-8)	102	-0.007213
103	0.343447	Nebraska (4-8)	103	-0.00602
104	0.332426	South Alabama (4-8)	104	-0.007124
105	0.328224	Louisiana Monroe (4-8)	105	-0.007101
106	0.318651	Tennessee (4-8)	106	-0.009171
107	0.315752	Cincinnati (4-8)	107	-0.006477
108	0.304131	Rutgers (4-8)	108	-0.006908
109	0.295714	BYU (4-9)	109	-0.003632
110	0.286057	Nevada (3-9)	110	-0.007544
111	0.283247	North Carolina (3-9)	111	-0.006662
112	0.266386	Hawaii (3-9)	112	-0.007023
113	0.247942	New Mexico (3-9)	113	-0.002021
114	0.23571	Connecticut (3-9)	114	-0.006307
115	0.225853	Tulsa (2-10)	115	-0.006194
116	0.216382	East Carolina (3-9)	116	-0.004575
117	0.19986	Georgia Southern (2-10)	117	-0.002662
118	0.190862	Bowling Green (2-10)	118	-0.004568
119	0.172982	Illinois (2-10)	119	-0.001291
120	0.147433	Ball State (2-10)	120	-0.004953
121	0.143609	Kent State (2-10)	121	-0.004522
122	0.141645	Texas State (2-10)	122	0.002233
123	0.139913	Baylor (1-11)	123	0.002422
124	0.083604	Charlotte (1-11)	125	-2.02E-4
125	0.082463	Oregon State (1-11)	124	-0.0031
126	0.074755	Rice (1-11)	126	0.00202
127	0.070202	Kansas (1-11)	127	0.002678
128	0.05763	San Jose State (2-11)	128	0.004344
129	0.000000	UTEP (0-12)	129	0.000000

2017 Annual Bowl Prediction Catastrophe

We didn't really need more bowls, so contracting by one from last year is a baby step in the right direction. I'm not at all sad to see the Miami Beach bowl leave us, even if it was replaced by the equally pointless Frisco Bowl. Still, I'm going to miss the Poinsettia Bowl - it had a pretty good track record for producing exciting games. RIP.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bourbon Bowl
New Orleans, LA - December 16, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#20 Troy loses to #40 North Texas by 9.1069

Team	Troy (10-2)	North Texas (9-4)
SOS	0.21828	0.513426
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30 (13.0968)	35.923077 (36.887683)
YPG	416.416667 (181.79086)	467 (479.539884)
TCPG	1.416667 (2.214873)	1.692308 (1.646866)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	17.5 (27.3602)	33.846154 (32.937317)
YPG	340.083333 (531.699887)	431.153846 (419.576503)
TFPG	1.75 (0.76398)	1.076923 (1.105841)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	82.34%	87.91%
Defense	58.81%	89.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.923077 (23.017058)	26.711538 (32.123942)

AutoNation Cure Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 16, 2017 - 2:30 PM
#82 Western Kentucky beats #83 Georgia State by 3.0181

Team	Western Kentucky (6-6)	Georgia State (6-5)
SOS	0.164178	0.095271
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.166667 (8.591982)	19.727273 (3.758874)
YPG	400.583333 (131.533941)	384.727273 (73.306704)
TCPG	1.666667 (2.786073)	1.818182 (3.289924)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.833333 (44.855781)	25.454545 (46.058931)
YPG	373.666667 (624.637641)	391.363636 (708.156063)
TFPG	1.166667 (0.383082)	1.181818 (0.225186)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	74.65%	58.6%
Defense	82.07%	74.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.810606 (27.325456)	23.280303 (24.307327)

Las Vegas Sin City Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 16, 2017 - 3:30 PM
#19 Boise State beats #44 Oregon by 5.9391

Team	Boise State (10-3)	Oregon (7-5)
SOS	0.714765	0.598176
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.076923 (45.854924)	36.666667 (43.86624)
YPG	400.307692 (572.251855)	454.333333 (543.542592)
TCPG	0.769231 (0.438823)	1.75 (1.406384)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	22.461538 (12.813634)	28.25 (22.703056)
YPG	336.692308 (192.072861)	359.833333 (289.179339)
TFPG	1.692308 (2.419205)	1.833333 (2.193312)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	91.58%	92.23%
Defense	76.24%	89.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.163462 (34.27899)	29.564103 (28.339937)

Gildan New Mexico T-Shirt Bowl
Albuquerque, NM - December 16, 2017 - 4:30 PM
#60 Marshall beats #56 Colorado State by 12.1299

Team	Marshall (7-5)	Colorado State (7-5)
SOS	0.460147	0.278725
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.333333 (24.234409)	33.833333 (18.860392)
YPG	369.75 (340.278707)	501 (279.28245)
TCPG	1.75 (1.889486)	1.333333 (1.9234)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.25 (20.784341)	27.5 (39.670125)
YPG	337.666667 (364.580726)	425.833333 (614.285875)
TFPG	1.25 (1.150368)	1.333333 (0.743267)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.39%	77.18%
Defense	65.15%	73.8%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.916667 (31.952267)	26.541667 (19.822366)

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, AL - December 16, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#81 Middle Tennessee beats #42 Arkansas State by 13.4749

Team	Middle Tennessee (6-6)	Arkansas State (7-4)
SOS	0.337803	0.058885
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.75 (16.721249)	38.545455 (4.539498)
YPG	396.833333 (268.102981)	498.727273 (58.735111)
TCPG	1.666667 (2.207323)	2 (3.76446)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.25 (32.116555)	24.909091 (46.884638)
YPG	348.583333 (461.661675)	381 (717.12963)
TFPG	0.666667 (0.450404)	1.909091 (0.224834)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	71.28%	88.33%
Defense	79.51%	74.72%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.829545 (31.802943)	31.397727 (18.328026)

Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, FL - December 19, 2017 - 7:00 PM
#73 Akron loses to #17 Florida Atlantic by 7.4919

Team	Akron (7-6)	Florida Atlantic (10-3)
SOS	0.566993	0.526259
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.615385 (26.779516)	39.846154 (41.938794)
YPG	329.461538 (373.604772)	491.769231 (517.595967)
TCPG	1.307692 (1.13248)	1 (0.947482)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.307692 (22.78283)	24.230769 (22.958218)
YPG	431.846154 (373.984815)	408.307692 (386.864189)
TFPG	2.076923 (2.355202)	2 (2.105036)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.92%	92.6%
Defense	69.62%	67.82%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.923077 (24.868867)	33.076923 (32.360812)

DXL Frisco Bowl
Frisco, TX - December 20, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#69 Louisiana Tech loses to #50 SMU by 14.7966

Team	Louisiana Tech (6-6)	SMU (7-5)
SOS	0.427292	0.625229
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.75 (24.56929)	40.166667 (50.22673)
YPG	406.833333 (347.673257)	494.083333 (617.830457)
TCPG	1.25 (1.43177)	1.083333 (0.812004)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.666667 (30.544427)	35.5 (26.608741)
YPG	394.083333 (451.389355)	486.666667 (364.777107)
TFPG	1.833333 (1.566737)	1.916667 (2.396711)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.76%	92.91%
Defense	77.33%	83.37%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	32.125 (25.589016)	33.416667 (40.385578)

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL - December 21, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#80 Temple beats #51 Florida Intl by 7.8407

Team	Temple (6-6)	Florida Intl (8-4)
SOS	0.522631	0.364835
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.833333 (25.95734)	27.5 (20.065925)
YPG	387.583333 (405.12613)	403.583333 (294.482651)
TCPG	1.75 (1.670792)	1.5 (1.905495)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.666667 (26.414418)	28.5 (36.204405)
YPG	391.833333 (374.098173)	416.083333 (528.563141)
TFPG	1.25 (1.306578)	1.416667 (1.033699)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	73.23%	77.87%
Defense	80.7%	78.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.666667 (31.080872)	27.583333 (23.240172)

Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, Bahamas - December 22, 2017 - 12:30 PM
#47 UAB loses to #39 Ohio by 16.1217

Team	UAB (8-4)	Ohio (8-4)
SOS	0	0.271212
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.583333 (0)	38.916667 (21.109334)
YPG	364.083333 (0)	430.916667 (233.739542)
TCPG	1.25 (2.5)	1.75 (2.550758)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.333333 (48.666667)	25.75 (37.532582)
YPG	357.833333 (715.666667)	373.166667 (543.918777)
TFPG	1.583333 (0)	1.416667 (0.768434)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.86%	103.21%
Defense	77.72%	78.86%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.666667 (18.766291)	31.625 (34.888)

Famous Idaho Potato Smurf-Turf Bowl
Boise, ID - December 22, 2017 - 4:00 PM
#41 Central Michigan loses to #55 Wyoming by 4.158

Team	Central Michigan (8-4)	Wyoming (7-5)
SOS	0.327793	0.343328
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.666667 (19.449051)	22.333333 (15.335317)
YPG	391.916667 (256.93508)	286.916667 (197.013051)
TCPG	1.916667 (2.576794)	1.166667 (1.532235)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.666667 (35.85104)	17.833333 (23.421301)
YPG	379.25 (509.86901)	332.75 (437.015216)
TFPG	2.583333 (1.693597)	2.5 (1.71664)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	86.51%	88.96%
Defense	80.36%	61.25%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.75 (21.435176)	24.5 (25.593179)

Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, AL - December 23, 2017 - 12:00 PM
#63 Texas Tech beats #16 South Florida by 22.8394

Team	Texas Tech (6-6)	South Florida (9-2)
SOS	0.641785	0.170464
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.333333 (44.069237)	38.272727 (13.048244)
YPG	468.416667 (601.245581)	508.636364 (173.408378)
TCPG	1.333333 (0.95524)	1.090909 (1.809897)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	31.75 (22.746653)	22.545455 (37.404532)
YPG	434 (310.93062)	342.545455 (568.307572)
TFPG	2.25 (2.888033)	2 (0.681856)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	83.77%	86%
Defense	83.61%	75.22%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.439394 (40.736885)	35.011364 (17.897448)

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX - December 23, 2017 - 3:30 PM
#15 San Diego State beats #30 Army by 3.015

Team	San Diego State (10-2)	Army (9-3)
SOS	0.405039	0.380218
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.416667 (24.639873)	29.75 (22.622971)
YPG	410.166667 (332.266993)	385.416667 (293.084708)
TCPG	0.916667 (1.090762)	0.833333 (1.03297)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	18.416667 (21.914397)	20.916667 (25.927547)
YPG	303.5 (361.141327)	355 (440.04522)
TFPG	1.583333 (1.282624)	1.083333 (0.823806)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	84.75%	88.22%
Defense	69.35%	67.34%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.666667 (25.28371)	24.083333 (22.268684)

Dollar General Knick-Knacks Bowl
Mobile, AL - December 23, 2017 - 7:00 PM
#35 Appalachian State loses to #10 Toledo by 14.7871

Team	Appalachian State (8-4)	Toledo (11-2)
SOS	0.127257	0.394128
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.416667 (8.50501)	39.153846 (30.863254)
YPG	438.5 (111.604389)	509.615385 (401.707385)
TCPG	1.166667 (2.0364)	1.153846 (1.398166)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.916667 (38.255235)	25.615385 (31.039289)
YPG	359.083333 (626.774931)	379.384615 (459.717031)
TFPG	1.833333 (0.466609)	1.538462 (1.212702)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	87.09%	87.81%
Defense	69.75%	77.16%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.516026 (19.772149)	30.535256 (34.559244)

Hawai'i Aloha Bowl
Honolulu, HI - December 24, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#29 Fresno State beats #48 Houston by 0.9655

Team	Fresno State (9-4)	Houston (7-4)
SOS	0.548769	0.562798
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.692308 (29.295822)	28.363636 (31.925996)
YPG	386.846154 (424.578354)	436.090909 (490.862183)
TCPG	0.846154 (0.763622)	1.909091 (1.669317)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	17.230769 (15.550114)	23 (20.111292)
YPG	319 (287.885378)	417.545455 (365.103416)
TFPG	1.461538 (1.604094)	1.727273 (1.944211)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	78.86%	74.33%
Defense	61.73%	62.95%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.846154 (24.703557)	22.797203 (23.738055)

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX - December 26, 2017 - 1:30 PM
#66 Utah beats #59 West Virginia by 1.873

Team	Utah (6-6)	West Virginia (7-5)
SOS	0.637488	0.587413
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.5 (37.611792)	36.25 (42.587443)
YPG	417.666667 (532.514976)	485.083333 (569.888512)
TCPG	2 (1.450048)	1.833333 (1.512819)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.916667 (17.340157)	31.583333 (26.061746)
YPG	353.833333 (256.537659)	452.5 (373.391235)
TFPG	1.916667 (2.443704)	1.416667 (1.664337)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.72%	85.41%
Defense	77.25%	79.77%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.541667 (31.836769)	30.083333 (29.9638)

Quick Lane Motor City Bowl
Detroit, MI - December 26, 2017 - 5:15 PM
#68 Duke beats #37 Northern Illinois by 6.848

Team	Duke (6-6)	Northern Illinois (8-4)
SOS	0.589244	0.404611
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.75 (30.346066)	30.166667 (24.41153)
YPG	378.083333 (445.566671)	384.333333 (311.010989)
TCPG	1.5 (1.232268)	2 (2.381556)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	20.75 (17.046374)	20.833333 (24.807875)
YPG	335.416667 (275.548817)	328 (390.575184)
TFPG	1.583333 (1.865939)	1.75 (1.416139)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.84%	89.7%
Defense	70.7%	72.59%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.291667 (27.576971)	25.458333 (20.728952)

Cactus Bowl
Phoeniz, AZ - December 26, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#58 Kansas State loses to #79 UCLA by 23.1893

Team	Kansas State (7-5)	UCLA (6-6)
SOS	0.483886	0.881291
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32.083333 (31.049352)	33.75 (59.487143)
YPG	368.333333 (356.462687)	465.666667 (820.775685)
TCPG	1 (1.032228)	1.75 (0.415482)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.833333 (26.66589)	36.75 (8.725112)
YPG	432.416667 (446.352591)	488.75 (116.038048)
TFPG	1.833333 (1.774249)	1 (1.762582)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	99.55%	82.83%
Defense	68.28%	85.93%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	34.416667 (19.887232)	29.791667 (43.076516)

Walk-On's Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA - December 27, 2017 - 1:30 PM
#36 Southern Mississippi loses to #71 Florida State by 31.2795

Team	Southern Mississippi (8-4)	Florida State (6-6)
SOS	0.189036	0.829701
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.5 (11.531196)	26.666667 (44.25072)
YPG	438.416667 (165.753066)	343.583333 (570.142871)
TCPG	1.5 (2.432892)	1.75 (0.596047)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23 (37.304344)	21.916667 (7.464773)
YPG	321.916667 (522.125655)	337 (114.781526)
TFPG	1.5 (0.567108)	1.166667 (1.935969)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	79.51%	88.7%
Defense	81.65%	74.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.208333 (9.497984)	24.833333 (40.777532)

New Era Pinstripe Yankee Bowl
Bronx, NY - December 27, 2017 - 5:15 PM
#46 Iowa beats #49 Boston College by 4.3039

Team	Iowa (7-5)	Boston College (7-5)
SOS	0.964371	0.922339
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.333333 (54.64769)	26.083333 (48.115351)
YPG	339.833333 (655.450823)	387 (713.890386)
TCPG	1.583333 (0.112825)	1.416667 (0.22004)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	19.916667 (1.419222)	22.5 (3.494745)
YPG	355.333333 (25.320343)	397.916667 (61.805213)
TFPG	1.916667 (3.696756)	2.083333 (3.843079)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	95.28%	77.03%
Defense	64.06%	64.62%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.416667 (29.071218)	23 (24.767287)

Foster Farms SANS-Francisco Bowl
Santa Clara, CA - December 27, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#53 Arizona loses to #65 Purdue by 12.0696

Team	Arizona (7-5)	Purdue (6-6)
SOS	0.464791	0.74954
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	41.833333 (38.887514)	24.166667 (36.227767)
YPG	494.5 (459.678299)	390.416667 (585.265817)
TCPG	1.666667 (1.78403)	1.333333 (0.667893)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.083333 (36.483414)	19.333333 (9.684453)
YPG	463.583333 (496.227945)	370.916667 (185.799577)
TFPG	2 (1.859164)	1.583333 (2.373543)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	96.68%	70.74%
Defense	84.02%	59.57%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.583333 (24.285984)	29.125 (36.35559)

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Houston, TX - December 27, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#62 Texas beats #52 Missouri by 7.4872

Team	Texas (6-6)	Missouri (7-5)
SOS	0.673139	0.517899
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.166667 (39.266442)	39.333333 (40.741388)
YPG	408.333333 (549.730183)	511.5 (529.810677)
TCPG	1.5 (0.980583)	1.75 (1.687354)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.666667 (14.163977)	31.75 (30.613414)
YPG	363.583333 (237.682424)	425.25 (410.026901)
TFPG	1.833333 (2.468176)	1.416667 (1.467381)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.63%	87.88%
Defense	68.11%	85.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.458333 (34.939928)	30.5 (27.452682)

Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grumman USNA Bowl
Annapolis, MD - December 28, 2017 - 1:30 PM
#75 Virginia loses to #70 Navy by 16.6062

Team	Virginia (6-6)	Navy (6-6)
SOS	0.622178	0.867029
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	23.833333 (29.657151)	28.916667 (50.143177)
YPG	356.166667 (443.198129)	426.75 (740.009252)
TCPG	1.333333 (1.007525)	1.583333 (0.421075)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.666667 (20.150507)	27.916667 (7.424214)
YPG	358.666667 (271.024315)	386.583333 (102.808745)
TFPG	1.5 (1.866534)	1.083333 (1.878563)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	76.48%	77.44%
Defense	84.97%	82.53%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.875 (18.540683)	27.791667 (35.146842)

Camping World Tangerine Bowl
Orlando, FL - December 28, 2017 - 5:15 PM
#22 Virginia Tech loses to #23 Oklahoma State by 3.6933

Team	Virginia Tech (9-3)	Oklahoma State (9-3)
SOS	0.546616	0.568181
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.75 (31.43042)	46.25 (52.556743)
YPG	404.083333 (441.756831)	575.666667 (654.165725)
TCPG	1 (0.906768)	1.75 (1.511367)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.5 (12.241368)	30.083333 (25.98111)
YPG	305.25 (276.790932)	400.25 (345.67111)
TFPG	1.583333 (1.730951)	1.833333 (2.08333)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	81.31%	91.82%
Defense	50.54%	85.9%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.416667 (28.705765)	29.875 (32.399055)

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX - December 28, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#28 Stanford beats #18 TCU by 10.0494

Team	Stanford (9-4)	TCU (10-3)
SOS	0.863833	0.635943
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	32 (55.285312)	33.153846 (42.167913)
YPG	389.923077 (673.656843)	414 (526.560804)
TCPG	0.769231 (0.209488)	1.076923 (0.784123)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.461538 (5.844707)	17.615385 (12.826008)
YPG	398.769231 (108.59842)	328.538462 (239.213453)
TFPG	1.923077 (3.322435)	1.384615 (1.761073)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	93.79%	91.52%
Defense	61.51%	61.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	24.807692 (34.05566)	27.307692 (24.00631)

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA - December 28, 2017 - 9:00 PM
#26 Washington State loses to #27 Michigan State by 4.7361

Team	Washington State (9-3)	Michigan State (9-3)
SOS	0.636463	0.833199
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	31.416667 (39.991092)	23.083333 (38.466021)
YPG	445.833333 (567.512842)	378.333333 (630.45391)
TCPG	2.416667 (1.757096)	1.666667 (0.556003)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.416667 (17.752724)	20.25 (6.755441)
YPG	313.583333 (227.998289)	297.416667 (99.218795)
TFPG	2.25 (2.864084)	1.75 (2.916197)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.53%	69.73%
Defense	88.99%	77.81%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.833333 (23.373266)	23.75 (28.109372)

Belk Queen City Bowl
Charlotte, NC - December 29, 2017 - 1:00 PM
#45 Wake Forest beats #57 Texas A&M by 9.709

Team	Wake Forest (7-5)	Texas A&M (7-5)
SOS	0.777844	0.657657
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.666667 (52.374829)	31.083333 (40.884344)
YPG	450.75 (701.226366)	389.583333 (512.424413)
TCPG	0.916667 (0.407286)	1.333333 (0.912915)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.333333 (11.700216)	28.666667 (19.627665)
YPG	444.25 (197.385606)	388.666667 (266.114625)
TFPG	1.5 (2.333532)	1.666667 (2.19219)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	85.36%	91.18%
Defense	67.74%	84.29%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.166667 (36.001247)	28.708333 (26.29228)

Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX - December 29, 2017 - 3:00 PM
#33 NC State loses to #54 Arizona State by 5.4789

Team	NC State (8-4)	Arizona State (7-5)
SOS	0.725099	0.824819
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.583333 (44.351889)	31.916667 (52.650946)
YPG	449.25 (651.501452)	427.583333 (705.357715)
TCPG	1 (0.549802)	0.916667 (0.321165)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	24.75 (13.6076)	31.25 (10.948813)
YPG	377.166667 (207.366988)	446.75 (156.524224)
TFPG	1.416667 (2.054447)	1.333333 (2.199517)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	77.8%	85.31%
Defense	75%	79.94%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	30.916667 (27.650351)	28.333333 (33.129273)

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN - December 29, 2017 - 4:30 PM
#64 Kentucky loses to #25 Northwestern by 5.6481

Team	Kentucky (7-5)	Northwestern (9-3)
SOS	0.652236	0.653257
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.75 (33.590154)	29.666667 (38.759915)
YPG	350.833333 (457.65226)	405.166667 (529.355922)
TCPG	1.083333 (0.753489)	1.5 (1.040229)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	28.583333 (19.880509)	19.833333 (13.754139)
YPG	425.666667 (296.063085)	358.833333 (248.845893)
TFPG	1.5 (1.956708)	2 (2.613028)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	83.88%	83.68%
Defense	76.74%	63.17%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	22.791667 (23.672147)	29.125 (29.320212)

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Tucson, AZ - December 29, 2017 - 5:30 PM
#76 New Mexico State loses to #74 Utah State by 9.8214

Team	New Mexico State (6-6)	Utah State (6-6)
SOS	0.270637	0.389348
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.583333 (16.012689)	31 (24.139576)
YPG	453.75 (245.603078)	393.75 (306.61155)
TCPG	2.166667 (3.160573)	1.833333 (2.239057)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	30.5 (44.491143)	27 (32.975208)
YPG	397.833333 (580.329827)	402.416667 (491.473085)
TFPG	2.083333 (1.127654)	2.166667 (1.687175)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	74.51%	89.98%
Defense	87.62%	76.68%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	28.291667 (24.493949)	30.75 (34.31536)

Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX - December 29, 2017 - 8:30 PM
#13 USC loses to #7 Ohio State by 11.6822

Team	USC (11-2)	Ohio State (11-2)
SOS	0.776919	0.842678
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.538462 (53.667174)	42.461538 (71.562809)
YPG	489.538462 (760.663464)	523.615385 (882.47833)
TCPG	1.769231 (0.789364)	1.384615 (0.435661)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	26.307692 (11.737493)	19.923077 (6.268677)
YPG	404.769231 (180.59265)	292.307692 (91.972862)
TFPG	1.846154 (2.868624)	1.538462 (2.592855)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	80.63%	92.68%
Defense	74.28%	77.89%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.230769 (29.967925)	34.384615 (41.650151)

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL - December 30, 2017 - 12:00 PM
#31 Louisville loses to #32 Mississippi State by 7.5338

Team	Louisville (8-4)	Mississippi State (8-4)
SOS	0.569537	0.73341
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	39 (44.423886)	32.083333 (47.060475)
YPG	560.5 (638.450977)	419.833333 (615.81993)
TCPG	1.416667 (1.219645)	1.583333 (0.844202)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	27.083333 (23.316746)	20.416667 (10.885758)
YPG	386.75 (332.963131)	302 (161.02036)
TFPG	1.666667 (1.898457)	1.416667 (2.077995)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	79.52%	87.34%
Defense	80.03%	77.26%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.708333 (27.654822)	29.583333 (35.18861)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN - December 30, 2017 - 12:30 PM
#43 Iowa State beats #11 Memphis by 1.0051

Team	Iowa State (7-5)	Memphis (10-2)
SOS	0.616861	0.528099
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	29.916667 (36.90885)	47.666667 (50.345438)
YPG	389.333333 (480.329099)	548.166667 (578.972537)
TCPG	0.75 (0.574709)	1.333333 (1.258403)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21 (16.091838)	33.416667 (31.538717)
YPG	368.416667 (282.309587)	476.333333 (449.564353)
TFPG	1.666667 (2.056203)	2.5 (2.640495)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	87.82%	99.38%
Defense	65.14%	80.18%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	31.666667 (34.223783)	34.333333 (33.218638)

Playstation Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ - December 30, 2017 - 4:00 PM
#9 Washington loses to #8 Penn State by 14.2832

Team	Washington (10-2)	Penn State (10-2)
SOS	0.533513	0.748286
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	36.916667 (39.391043)	41.583333 (62.232452)
YPG	411.666667 (439.259037)	453.25 (678.321259)
TCPG	0.833333 (0.777478)	0.833333 (0.419523)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	14.5 (13.528123)	15.5 (7.803134)
YPG	277.416667 (258.822537)	329.333333 (165.795621)
TFPG	1.75 (1.867296)	2 (2.993144)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	102.49%	104.85%
Defense	59.73%	53.79%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.208333 (23.597089)	28.041667 (37.880288)

Capital One Orange Bowl
Miami, FL - December 30, 2017 - 8:00 PM
#6 Wisconsin beats #12 Miami by 4.682

Team	Wisconsin (12-1)	Miami (10-2)
SOS	0.701467	0.708179
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	33.769231 (47.376002)	29.5 (41.782561)
YPG	416.153846 (583.83638)	405.916667 (574.923318)
TCPG	1.769231 (1.056348)	1.25 (0.729553)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.153846 (7.853714)	19.916667 (11.624203)
YPG	253.230769 (151.195482)	359.416667 (209.770662)
TFPG	2 (2.805868)	2.5 (3.540895)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.74%	83.06%
Defense	59.36%	63.33%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	26.842949 (29.500103)	21.326923 (24.818138)

Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL - January 1, 2018 - 12:00 PM
#34 Michigan beats #38 South Carolina by 7.1057

Team	Michigan (8-4)	South Carolina (8-4)
SOS	0.789489	0.672693
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.75 (40.658684)	24.083333 (32.40138)
YPG	354.916667 (560.405609)	340.166667 (457.655471)
TCPG	1.333333 (0.561363)	1.166667 (0.763716)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	18.25 (7.683652)	20.833333 (13.637792)
YPG	268.583333 (113.079492)	374.583333 (245.207494)
TFPG	1.166667 (1.842141)	1.916667 (2.578657)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	82.92%	80.91%
Defense	77.66%	63.56%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.291667 (27.148238)	21.166667 (20.042516)

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA - January 1, 2018 - 12:30 PM
#1 UCF loses to #14 Auburn by 13.8939

Team	UCF (12-0)	Auburn (10-3)
SOS	0.524188	0.873062
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	49.416667 (51.807247)	34.384615 (60.039802)
YPG	540.416667 (566.559863)	454 (792.740296)
TCPG	1.166667 (1.110228)	1.307692 (0.331992)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	25.166667 (23.949204)	17.307692 (4.394008)
YPG	428.5 (407.770884)	317.615385 (80.634923)
TFPG	2.416667 (2.533575)	1.384615 (2.41771)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	104.5%	86.56%
Defense	67.12%	62.28%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	33.362179 (28.100628)	29.775641 (41.994503)

Citrus Bowl Presented by Overton's
Orlando, FL - January 1, 2018 - 1:00 PM
#21 Notre Dame beats #24 LSU by 24.6716

Team	Notre Dame (9-3)	LSU (9-3)
SOS	1	0.628008
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	35.333333 (70.666667)	28.083333 (35.273116)
YPG	455 (910)	412.083333 (517.58326)
TCPG	1.25 (0)	0.666667 (0.495989)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	21.833333 (0)	18.75 (13.9497)
YPG	366.666667 (0)	311.666667 (231.875013)
TFPG	1.666667 (3.333333)	1.333333 (1.674688)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	88.75%	77.89%
Defense	68.05%	68.75%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	27.041667 (42.308183)	24.958333 (17.636558)

(SEMI) Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwest Mutual
Pasadena, CA - January 1, 2018 - 5:00 PM
#4 Georgia beats #5 Oklahoma by 0.6741

Team	Georgia (12-1)	Oklahoma (12-1)
SOS	0.755475	0.678948
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.923077 (52.767023)	44.923077 (61.000866)
YPG	433.615385 (655.171165)	583.307692 (792.071182)
TCPG	1 (0.48905)	0.923077 (0.592711)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.230769 (6.470508)	25 (16.0526)
YPG	271 (132.53255)	384.692308 (247.01247)
TFPG	1.384615 (2.092085)	1.307692 (1.77571)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.04%	88.02%
Defense	55.8%	74.27%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	29.961538 (34.409812)	29.076923 (33.735687)

(SEMI) Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA - January 1, 2018 - 8:45 PM
#2 Alabama loses to #3 Clemson by 1.9026

Team	Alabama (11-1)	Clemson (12-1)
SOS	0.658569	0.757665
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	39.083333 (51.478144)	35.384615 (53.619369)
YPG	470.666667 (619.932952)	448.384615 (679.450659)
TCPG	0.666667 (0.455241)	1.076923 (0.521952)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	11.5 (7.852913)	12.769231 (6.188863)
YPG	257.833333 (176.064586)	277.923077 (134.700978)
TFPG	1.666667 (2.19523)	1.461538 (2.214713)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	94.9%	90.19%
Defense	50.97%	52.51%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	25.926282 (28.833503)	23.442308 (30.736141)

(FINAL) CFP National Championship Game presented by AT&T
Atlanta, GA - January 8, 2018 - 8:00 PM
#4 Georgia loses to #3 Clemson by 0.567

Team	Georgia (12-1)	Clemson (12-1)
SOS	0.755475	0.757665
OFFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	34.923077 (52.767023)	35.384615 (53.619369)
YPG	433.615385 (655.171165)	448.384615 (679.450659)
TCPG	1 (0.48905)	1.076923 (0.521952)
DEFENSE raw (sos-scaled)
PPG	13.230769 (6.470508)	12.769231 (6.188863)
YPG	271 (132.53255)	277.923077 (134.700978)
TFPG	1.384615 (2.092085)	1.461538 (2.214713)
EFFICIENCY (ref: 7pts/80yds)
Offense	92.04%	90.19%
Defense	55.8%	52.51%
PREDICTION raw (sos-scaled)
Score	23.846154 (29.477943)	24.307692 (30.044938)

Week 15 (Pre-Bowl) Rankings

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	UCF (12-0)	1	0.000000
2	0.998841	Alabama (11-1)	2	3.19E-4
3	0.982395	Clemson (12-1)	3	3.11E-4
4	0.97734	Georgia (12-1)	4	2.91E-4
5	0.967925	Oklahoma (12-1)	5	3.23E-4
6	0.965733	Wisconsin (12-1)	6	2.94E-4
7	0.934632	Ohio State (11-2)	7	5.26E-4
8	0.91073	Penn State (10-2)	8	2.73E-4
9	0.887634	Washington (10-2)	9	2.44E-4
10	0.854238	Toledo (11-2)	10	2.22E-4
11	0.838534	Memphis (10-2)	11	-1.42E-4
12	0.83702	Miami (10-2)	12	2.04E-4
13	0.83635	USC (11-2)	13	1.95E-4
14	0.832647	Auburn (10-3)	14	2.11E-4
15	0.832233	San Diego State (10-2)	15	1.99E-4
16	0.820549	South Florida (9-2)	16	1.11E-4
17	0.81518	Florida Atlantic (10-3)	17	1.6E-5
18	0.805213	TCU (10-3)	18	1.76E-4
19	0.803942	Boise State (10-3)	19	1.85E-4
20	0.801377	Troy (10-2)	20	1.83E-4
21	0.794785	Notre Dame (9-3)	21	-1.05E-4
22	0.788385	Virginia Tech (9-3)	22	1.88E-4
23	0.787753	Oklahoma State (9-3)	23	1.66E-4
24	0.778149	LSU (9-3)	24	1.68E-4
25	0.753931	Northwestern (9-3)	25	1.63E-4
26	0.751854	Washington State (9-3)	26	1.52E-4
27	0.743516	Michigan State (9-3)	27	1.39E-4
28	0.740745	Stanford (9-4)	28	1.42E-4
29	0.730232	Fresno State (9-4)	29	1.39E-4
30	0.724053	Army (9-3)	32	0.023864
31	0.723392	Louisville (8-4)	30	1.39E-4
32	0.707969	Mississippi State (8-4)	31	1.24E-4
33	0.692882	NC State (8-4)	33	9.6E-5
34	0.691012	Michigan (8-4)	34	1.02E-4
35	0.683307	Appalachian State (8-4)	35	1.09E-4
36	0.667214	Southern Mississippi (8-4)	36	1.34E-4
37	0.659984	Northern Illinois (8-4)	37	1.15E-4
38	0.658367	South Carolina (8-4)	38	8.7E-5
39	0.657796	Ohio (8-4)	39	1.15E-4
40	0.649008	North Texas (9-4)	40	3.36E-4
41	0.647089	Central Michigan (8-4)	41	9.4E-5
42	0.641791	Arkansas State (7-4)	42	6.2E-5
43	0.637525	Iowa State (7-5)	43	7.7E-5
44	0.628228	Oregon (7-5)	44	7.3E-5
45	0.625561	Wake Forest (7-5)	45	6.4E-5
46	0.624971	Iowa (7-5)	46	9.0E-5
47	0.624702	UAB (8-4)	47	1.03E-4
48	0.619765	Houston (7-4)	48	-2.7E-4
49	0.618897	Boston College (7-5)	49	4.8E-5
50	0.6145	SMU (7-5)	50	-2.62E-4
51	0.609022	Florida Intl (8-4)	51	2.6E-5
52	0.604774	Missouri (7-5)	52	5.7E-5
53	0.604495	Arizona (7-5)	53	5.2E-5
54	0.596224	Arizona State (7-5)	54	4.6E-5
55	0.595287	Wyoming (7-5)	55	4.4E-5
56	0.5946	Colorado State (7-5)	56	4.5E-5
57	0.593704	Texas A&M (7-5)	57	4.6E-5
58	0.589922	Kansas State (7-5)	58	4.4E-5
59	0.582565	West Virginia (7-5)	59	3.9E-5
60	0.582028	Marshall (7-5)	60	6.0E-6
61	0.580295	UT San Antonio (6-5)	61	8.0E-5
62	0.564477	Texas (6-6)	62	3.0E-5
63	0.560156	Texas Tech (6-6)	63	1.2E-5
64	0.557374	Kentucky (7-5)	65	3.1E-5
65	0.551677	Purdue (6-6)	66	2.0E-5
66	0.550197	Utah (6-6)	67	2.0E-5
67	0.545065	Western Michigan (6-6)	68	4.2E-5
68	0.544829	Duke (6-6)	69	2.88E-4
69	0.531046	Louisiana Tech (6-6)	70	2.7E-5
70	0.528985	Navy (6-6)	64	-0.028996
71	0.526035	Florida State (6-6)	71	1.4E-5
72	0.524454	Buffalo (6-6)	72	2.84E-4
73	0.521064	Akron (7-6)	73	8.0E-6
74	0.519269	Utah State (6-6)	74	-5.0E-6
75	0.510695	Virginia (6-6)	75	4.0E-6
76	0.506354	New Mexico State (6-6)	76	1.0E-6
77	0.499058	Ole Miss (6-6)	77	-1.6E-5
78	0.493321	Georgia Tech (5-6)	78	-3.0E-6
79	0.491625	UCLA (6-6)	79	-3.9E-5
80	0.483981	Temple (6-6)	80	-7.0E-5
81	0.481777	Middle Tennessee (6-6)	81	-3.1E-5
82	0.478801	Western Kentucky (6-6)	82	-3.4E-5
83	0.477406	Georgia State (6-5)	83	-3.2E-5
84	0.462433	Tulane (5-7)	84	-7.7E-5
85	0.462394	Indiana (5-7)	85	-2.4E-5
86	0.454246	Eastern Michigan (5-7)	86	2.59E-4
87	0.449048	California (5-7)	87	-4.7E-5
88	0.443622	Minnesota (5-7)	88	-4.0E-5
89	0.442126	Miami (OH) (5-7)	89	-6.0E-5
90	0.438563	Pittsburgh (5-7)	90	-3.0E-5
91	0.436148	Colorado (5-7)	91	-5.7E-5
92	0.430525	Air Force (5-7)	92	1.0E-6
93	0.429711	UNLV (5-7)	93	-5.3E-5
94	0.410078	Florida (4-7)	95	-7.2E-5
95	0.410078	Vanderbilt (5-7)	94	-7.5E-5
96	0.38339	UMass (4-8)	96	-9.2E-5
97	0.369273	Syracuse (4-8)	97	-1.0E-4
98	0.366556	Old Dominion (5-7)	98	-9.9E-5
99	0.366217	Louisiana (5-7)	99	-1.26E-4
100	0.3594	Arkansas (4-8)	100	-1.08E-4
101	0.353447	Maryland (4-8)	101	-1.18E-4
102	0.351575	Idaho (4-8)	102	-1.11E-4
103	0.349467	Nebraska (4-8)	103	-1.05E-4
104	0.339551	South Alabama (4-8)	104	-1.21E-4
105	0.335325	Louisiana Monroe (4-8)	105	-1.42E-4
106	0.327823	Tennessee (4-8)	106	-1.3E-4
107	0.322229	Cincinnati (4-8)	107	-4.23E-4
108	0.311039	Rutgers (4-8)	108	-1.17E-4
109	0.299347	BYU (4-9)	109	-1.5E-4
110	0.293601	Nevada (3-9)	110	-1.55E-4
111	0.289909	North Carolina (3-9)	111	-1.58E-4
112	0.27341	Hawaii (3-9)	112	-1.64E-4
113	0.249964	New Mexico (3-9)	113	-2.03E-4
114	0.242017	Connecticut (3-9)	114	-2.8E-4
115	0.232047	Tulsa (2-10)	115	-4.94E-4
116	0.220958	East Carolina (3-9)	116	-2.85E-4
117	0.202522	Georgia Southern (2-10)	117	-2.09E-4
118	0.195431	Bowling Green (2-10)	118	-1.93E-4
119	0.174274	Illinois (2-10)	119	-2.2E-4
120	0.152386	Ball State (2-10)	120	-2.23E-4
121	0.148132	Kent State (2-10)	121	-2.37E-4
122	0.139412	Texas State (2-10)	122	-2.55E-4
123	0.137491	Baylor (1-11)	123	-2.41E-4
124	0.085564	Oregon State (1-11)	124	-2.94E-4
125	0.083807	Charlotte (1-11)	125	-2.95E-4
126	0.072734	Rice (1-11)	126	1.4E-5
127	0.067523	Kansas (1-11)	127	-3.06E-4
128	0.053286	San Jose State (2-11)	128	-3.28E-4
129	0.000000	UTEP (0-12)	129	0.000000

I noticed when assembling my preliminary bowl predictions that I have left UAB's FBS flag unchecked last season, so they weren't showing up in the rankings this year (they never cracked the top 25 anyway), but it also meant their opponents weren't being credited with the proper SOS for playing an FBS team. That's been fixed as of these rankings. I don't think it made any meaningful difference this late in the season, but my sincere apologies to both UAB and their opponents for short-changing them.

Week 14 Top 25

Rank	Score	Team	Previous Rank	Score Change
1	1.000000	UCF (12-0)	3	0.020595
2	0.998556	Alabama (11-1)	2	0.007621
3	0.982268	Clemson (12-1)	4	0.04298
4	0.976907	Georgia (12-1)	5	0.041495
5	0.967529	Oklahoma (12-1)	6	0.040676
6	0.965849	Wisconsin (12-1)	1	-0.03415
7	0.934781	Ohio State (11-2)	8	0.031441
8	0.911524	Penn State (10-2)	7	0.007229
9	0.888768	Washington (10-2)	10	0.007003
10	0.855332	Toledo (11-2)	14	0.024893
11	0.840604	Memphis (10-2)	12	-0.025046
12	0.838823	Miami (10-2)	9	-0.044409
13	0.838141	USC (11-2)	17	0.029776
14	0.834399	Auburn (10-3)	11	-0.041974
15	0.834119	San Diego State (10-2)	15	0.007136
16	0.822651	South Florida (9-2)	16	0.007624
17	0.815375	Florida Atlantic (10-3)	23	0.041313
18	0.807357	TCU (10-3)	13	-0.040925
19	0.806115	Boise State (10-3)	24	0.034403
20	0.803216	Troy (10-2)	21	0.025929
21	0.797377	Notre Dame (9-3)	18	0.006086
22	0.790785	Virginia Tech (9-3)	20	0.00668
23	0.790079	Oklahoma State (9-3)	19	0.005276
24	0.780269	LSU (9-3)	22	0.005984
25	0.756782	Northwestern (9-3)	27	0.005768

Table breaks indicate gaps of at least 0.015 between teams. Gaps used for illustrative purposes may vary week to week, but are intended to group together teams in similar tiers.