Chaos Rankings

Saturday, August 25, 2007

How I Got from There to Here

Behold! As long last, the 2007 preseason Chaos Rankings are available, and just in time for the season to start! I modified the way I calculated these slightly from what was originally posted below. I took last year's final rankings and expanded them to be from -1 to 1 rather than 0 to 1. This essentially makes a team with a score of 0 the average team. Then I gathered all the information I originally mentioned, except that I doubled the value of each element. This yielded an adjustment factor between 1 (a team identical to last year) and o (a team completely different than last year). This number was multiplied by the expanded score from last year to obtain a preseason score for this year, then that number was requantized between 1 and 0 to obtain the scores shown here. I went this route because it allows bad teams to move up in the rankings by replacing coaches or players from a previously bad team. So if you had a negative score (meaning you suck) and replaced your entire squad and main coaching staff, you net a score of 0, putting you back in the middle of the pack again rather than as a lowly bottom feeder. I think this is more fair than what I previously intended to do, but as you can see below, few teams really moved very far anyway. I also want to make it clear that these rankings have no impact whatsoever on the upcoming season. Unlike other polls (*cough* USA Today *cough*) which go a long way towards determining a #1 team at the end of the season by placing them #1 at the beginning, effectively forcing them to screw up really badly and every other team to play flawlessly, my regular season rankings use data from only games in that season, therefore determining the best team during that season based on performance and not preconceived notions of "best" or historical precedent.


  • So upon the first day of the season, all "scoring" will revert to zero?

    By Blogger m├Ątt, at 8/28/2007 8:26 AM  

  • Yes. As of Thursday at 7 pm when Buffalo kicks off the season at Rutgers, all teams will be equal until proven otherwise.

    I contemplated using the preseason rankings as a stabilization factor for the first 2-3 weeks until enough data has accumulated to prevent teams from jumping all over the place, but I'm not sure how much impact that may have, so I want to play with the numbers before I agree to do it. In any case, the preseason numbers will have no impact on the final season numbers. I would do something like 1/3 of the score plus 2/3 fo the preseason score for week 1 and vice versa for week two, then phase them out completely in week 3. It doesn't impact the raw data, so it wouldn't impact actual score calculations, it would only be a stabilizing adjustment. We'll see once I get some data if it makes any sense to do it or not.

    By Blogger Adam, at 8/28/2007 10:43 AM  

  • You said that on Thursday at 7pm the data will be reset.

    I expect you to be sitting at your laptop ready to hit the delete key at the precise moment that the kicker's foot touches the ball.

    Your readers will accept nothing less. Oh, you may want to live blog it too, or at least get Emily to vouch for you.

    By Anonymous Tim, at 8/28/2007 8:40 PM  

  • Thanks to my spectacular java coding, by virtue of the fact that I haven't created a database for the 2007-2008 season yet, all team data is already zeroed out since I initialize everything to null.

    By Blogger Adam, at 8/29/2007 4:49 PM  

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