Chaos Rankings

Monday, January 09, 2012

Prohibitive Favorite

Did some number crunching this afternoon, and given the large gulf between LSU and Houston/Alabama in the rankings thus far (including all bowl games besides the Controversial Crystal Football Bowl), it's quite likely LSU will remain in the #1 spot even with a loss. It's possible for Alabama to win and not jump Houston, and it's also possible for Alabama to end up at #1, but both scenarios require statlines that seem totally out of sorts with the last meeting in November. Stranger things have happened, but assuming a close game, an Alabama win would probably leave them stuck in 3rd place, with Houston in second and LSU in first.

CCF Bowl Scenario 1
Alabama - 15 points, 250 yards, 0 TOs
LSU - 9 points, 200 yards, 1 TO
Result - 1) LSU, 2) Houston, 3) Alabama

CCF Bowl Scenario 2
Alabama - 30 points, 350 yards, 0 TOs
LSU - 6 points, 200 yards, 2 TOs.
Result - 1) Houston, 2) Alabama, 3) LSU

CCF Bowl Senario 3
Alabama - 35 points, 400 yards, 0 TOs
LSU - 9 points, 200 yards, 3 TOs
Result - 1) Alabama, 2) Houston, 3) LSU

Scenario 1 shows that just simply winning won't be enough. It certainly closes the gap, but won't change the current rankings. As you can see between scenario 2 and 3, even a dominant Alabama performance may not be enough depending on how the final game stats shake out. Alabama's and Houston's score are so close together that, in general, anything that hurts LSU will also help Houston. So it will take a lot to push the Tide over the Cougars.

As much as I love defense, the game in November was pretty boring. Reminded me a lot of the awful ACC Championship game between Wake and Georgia Tech that was won 6-3 by the Demon Deacons. Here's hoping for a little more offense and a little more excitement. A 13-10 game would be vastly superior to the 9-6 OT snoozer. Many other bowl games this season have delivered great matchups and exciting finishes, so hopefully the last one will do the same.


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