Chaos Rankings

Monday, November 29, 2010

Smurf-turf Blues

It ain't easy being Boise State. You're held to a different standard than everyone else. You wear the same target on your back every week as one of the nation's elite teams, but if you lose, you may as well cease to exist. This was supposed to be the break-through year for the Broncos. They were joining a strong Mountain West conference alongside TCU, Utah, BYU, and Air Force, and then strong fellow WAC members Nevada and Fresno State were coming along for the ride. Then before it even began, it all blew up, as Utah left for the Pac 10-soon-to-be-12, BYU decided it wanted to be like Notre Dame, and now TCU is abandoning the league for the Big East. All of a sudden, there's no substance left to the MWC, and Boise looks like they bet on the wrong horse (no Bronco pun intended). Add to that the fact that Boise was returning 20 starters from a very good team last year and began the season ranked in the Top 5, with a very good shot at a national title game appearance if a couple teams lost. But Friday night in Reno, that all went up in smoke as well. Now instead of joining a league with a legitimate claim to being stronger than the Big East and probably the ACC, they join a gutted league of nobodies. Instead of playing for a national title, they are going to be relegated to a bowl game with a name you won't even remember the next morning. Talk about the blues.
I'm not here to say that Boise is a definite #1 team, or is even the best non-AQ team out there, but they are a very good team, and one loss to another very good team shouldn't damn your season. You wanna talk schedule strength? Fine, according to the NCAA's SOS ratings, Boise plays an equivalent schedule to Ohio State and Nebraska. No friends, I'm here to beg for a playoff and to tell you that the BCS is preposterous. Look at the Big T([w]elev)en where there's a 3-way round robin tie for the conference title. BCS #8 Michigan State won't be playing in a BCS game, but UConn, Pitt or WVU will? At least Michigan State will still play in a top-tier bowl game, not the frozen tundra of the Humanitarian Bowl or the Fight Hunger Bowl.
I heard a lot of announcers this weekend talking about how games this past week were basically opening round playoff games. Certainly, there were elimination games, but often the winning team effectively has a zero percent chance of "advancing" into later rounds. LSU's outside shot at the BCS title game disappeared when they lost to Arkansas, but it's not like the Razorbacks have any realistic chance of playing for a national title. Boise's title shot went out the window with a loss to Nevada, but the Wolfpack have a mathematic impossibility to reach the title game. it's only a playoff game if both teams entering the game have the same mathematical odds of advancing to not only the next round, but also to the championship. When March madness begins, technically, all 65 teams have an equal chance to win it all. Just because it's unlikely that the play-in game winner will make the Final Four doesn't mean they have any less opportunity to do so. Can we all agree to dispense sugar-coating the BCS by attempting to couch regular season games as "effective playoff games?" It's dishonest.
Here's my proposition: There are 11 conferences. Take the 11 champions, and the top 5 ranked teams who are not champions, regardless of conference affiliation, seed them according to rank, and play a 16 team tournament. Alternatively, just take the top 16 ranked teams, period. You might end up with 4 SEC teams in the playoffs, but so what? If they're top teams, don't they deserve a chance for not just a national title, but a national championship? Every other level of football has a playoff, why not Div I-A? You like bowl games? Hey, me too! But while we're fixing stuff, can we fix this too? Reduce the number of bowl games (a necessity if you remove 16 bowl-eligible teams for the playoffs), and increase the requirement to play in one: Your record must be over 0.500. Your 6-6 record does not merit the reward of a bowl game; you did not have a winning season; better luck next year. Don't like the idea of the Rose Bowl going away? Me either, but I have a solution for that too. Add the Peach and the Cotton, and stage the playoff quarterfinals and semifinals as the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Peach, and Cotton bowls, rotating games as necessary so everyone stays happy.
Does the BCS match up the two best teams at the end of the year? Sometimes, yes, but more often it's splitting hairs between a few very good teams, any one of which would be a deserving champion. Just ask 2000 Miami, 2001 Colorado/Oregon, 2003 USC, 2004 Auburn, 2006 Michigan, or 2008 Texas. Fans of college football deserve better than the BCS. They deserve better than watching some pointless bowl games between mediocre 6-6 teams. They deserve a system that rewards teams who turn in strong seasons with minor slip ups a chance to play for something meaningful at the end of it all.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Week 13 Top 24

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000TCU (12-0)10.000000
20.952007Oregon (11-0)3-0.007086
30.930681Ohio State (11-1)40.003468
40.915058Boise State (10-1)2-0.073543
50.913128Auburn (12-0)5-0.005732
60.892109Stanford (11-1)60.019703
70.88891Wisconsin (11-1)80.029865
80.853661Nevada (11-1)9-0.003422
90.824283Michigan State (11-1)12-0.005716
100.81578Oklahoma (10-2)130.004803
110.802769Oklahoma State (10-2)7-0.066807
120.800963Virginia Tech (10-2)140.006759
130.795883Arkansas (10-2)150.007091
140.794943Northern Illinois (10-2)180.02819
150.793514Missouri (10-2)160.013114
160.793005Nebraska (10-2)170.013244
170.778301Alabama (9-3)10-0.062336
180.766051LSU (10-2)11-0.068138
190.75366Utah (10-2)190.001597
200.74824Hawaii (9-3)200.01161
210.713464South Carolina (9-3)220.015443
220.701069Tulsa (9-3)240.005326
230.700807Texas A&M (9-3)250.007017
240.693026UCF (9-3)270.002513

Week 13 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.148301Bowling Green (2-10)108-0.049475
1120.142236Vanderbilt (2-10)110-0.046491
1130.136136UNLV (2-10)113-0.044466
1140.130824Buffalo (2-10)114-0.045308
1150.110664San Jose State (2-10)116-0.032648
1160.091835Eastern Michigan (2-10)115-0.063089
1170.032417Akron (1-11)1200.032417
1180.027046New Mexico State (1-11)117-0.045176
1190.007244Memphis (1-11)119-0.032795
1200.000000New Mexico (1-11)118-0.042261

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Week 12 Top 24

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000TCU (11-0)10.000000
20.988601Boise State (10-0)30.043137
30.959094Oregon (10-0)2-0.001473
40.927212Ohio State (10-1)50.018272
50.91886Auburn (11-0)40.001409
60.872405Stanford (10-1)80.041292
70.869577Oklahoma State (10-1)60.032481
80.859045Wisconsin (10-1)70.026708
90.857083Nevada (10-1)100.035585
100.840638Alabama (9-2)130.052717
110.834189LSU (10-1)110.02388
120.829999Michigan State (10-1)120.022963
130.810977Oklahoma (9-2)140.039971
140.794203Virginia Tech (9-2)160.041681
150.788792Arkansas (9-2)150.028159
160.780399Missouri (9-2)170.032611
170.779761Nebraska (9-2)9-0.042096
180.766753Northern Illinois (9-2)180.040369
190.752063Utah (9-2)190.032903
200.736629Hawaii (8-3)210.043115
210.69874Southern Miss (8-3)270.04118
220.698021South Carolina (8-3)320.058436
230.697486North Carolina State (8-3)250.030143
240.695742Tulsa (8-3)260.035596

Week 12 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.1879Wake Forest (2-9)108-0.004316
1120.1858Washington State (2-9)1130.018816
1130.180602UNLV (2-9)111-3.06E-4
1140.176132Buffalo (2-9)112-0.002652
1150.154924Eastern Michigan (2-9)1160.057257
1160.143313San Jose State (2-9)114-0.014745
1170.072223New Mexico State (1-10)117-0.014359
1180.042261New Mexico (1-10)118-0.019372
1190.04004Memphis (1-10)119-0.007844
1200.000000Akron (0-11)1200.000000

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Week 11 Top 24

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000TCU (11-0)10.000000
20.960568Oregon (10-0)20.00848
30.945464Boise State (9-0)30.012857
40.917451Auburn (11-0)40.002854
50.90894Ohio State (9-1)50.018439
60.837096Oklahoma State (9-1)60.011307
70.832336Wisconsin (9-1)110.038577
80.831113Stanford (9-1)70.011771
90.821858Nebraska (9-1)100.013303
100.821498Nevada (9-1)90.009596
110.810309LSU (9-1)140.034713
120.807036Michigan State (9-1)8-0.010795
130.78792Alabama (8-2)150.021275
140.771005Oklahoma (8-2)160.029844
150.760632Arkansas (8-2)180.032294
160.752522Virginia Tech (8-2)210.038202
170.747787Missouri (8-2)190.022384
180.726383Northern Illinois (8-2)240.030242
190.71916Utah (8-2)12-0.071205
200.717171Iowa (7-3)13-0.058563
210.693514Hawaii (7-3)22-0.008192
220.677725Temple (8-2)25-0.011634
230.67318Arizona (7-3)17-0.057076
240.670247Miami (7-3)290.023485

Week 11 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.180909UNLV (2-8)1140.052796
1120.178784Buffalo (2-8)106-0.052713
1130.166983Washington State (2-9)1170.051812
1140.158059San Jose State (2-8)111-0.019937
1150.133061Wyoming (2-9)113-0.041173
1160.097667Eastern Michigan (1-9)115-0.027916
1170.086582New Mexico State (1-9)116-0.03249
1180.061634New Mexico (1-9)118-0.03513
1190.047884Memphis (1-9)119-0.02616
1200.000000Akron (0-10)1200.000000

Sunday, November 07, 2010

Week 10 Top 30

Previous Rank
Score Change
11.000000TCU (10-0)10.000000
20.952087Oregon (9-0)2-0.017249
30.932606Boise State (8-0)3-0.00795
40.914597Auburn (10-0)5-0.015279
50.8905Ohio State (8-1)4-0.044198
60.825789Oklahoma State (8-1)130.00782
70.819341Stanford (8-1)129.55E-4
80.817831Michigan State (9-1)8-0.014668
90.811901Nevada (8-1)180.027524
100.808555Nebraska (8-1)10-0.016525
110.793758Wisconsin (8-1)160.00139
120.790366Utah (8-1)6-0.113349
130.775735Iowa (7-2)17-0.009518
140.775595LSU (8-1)190.005137
150.766645Alabama (7-2)7-0.092089
160.741161Oklahoma (7-2)9-0.090881
170.730257Arizona (7-2)11-0.094743
180.728338Arkansas (7-2)240.012146
190.725403Missouri (7-2)14-0.090627
200.715895Mississippi State (7-2)20-0.032855
210.714319Virginia Tech (7-2)23-0.005757
220.701706Hawaii (7-3)15-0.092288
230.696411UCF (7-2)290.001346
240.696141Northern Illinois (7-2)22-0.032289
250.689359Temple (8-2)310.012502
260.68382San Diego State (7-2)28-0.0132
270.659168Florida (6-3)350.025952
280.648379Baylor (7-3)21-0.089341
290.646762Miami (6-3)340.011386
300.639635North Carolina State (6-3)25-0.070497

Week 10 Bottom 10

Previous Rank
Score Change
1110.177996San Jose State (2-7)1140.002563
1120.175264Western Kentucky (1-8)112-0.017678
1130.174234Wyoming (2-8)109-0.038222
1140.128112UNLV (1-8)113-0.053361
1150.125584Eastern Michigan (1-8)1170.003914
1160.119073New Mexico State (1-8)116-0.00916
1170.11517Washington State (1-9)115-0.016173
1180.096765New Mexico (1-8)1190.072936
1190.074044Memphis (1-8)118-0.041113
1200.000000Akron (0-10)1200.000000